Pondering the polls

Both One News and 3 News released polls yesterday. Comparing the two:

One News 3 News
National 44 47.0
Labour 35 34.6
Greens 13 12.9
NZ First 4 2.0
Maori Party 1 1.0
Act 1 0.2
Mana 0 0.2
United Future 1 0
Conservative 1 1.0

(from details at Curiablog – One News/Colmar Brunton and 3 News/Reid Research)

These polls show very similar results, especially if you add National, Act and UF in One News (46) and compare that to 3 news (47). The only significant variance is for NZ First.

  • Movements from the last polls are all within margins of error.
  • National has eased down (-1.0% and -1.8%).
  • Labour are up (+3.0% and +1.6%).
  • Greens are up (+1.0 and +2.3%).
  • Small party movements are typical fluctations.

Some thoughts:

National should be concerned about these results and should be giving serious consideration to changing there approach next year. Obviously they need to reduce the stuff ups, but they also need to be seen to be addressing problems more positively rather than passively.

Labour as a whole will be happy with their showing bu the jury is still out on Shearer’s leadership. While Labour and Shearer have had more publicity leading up to these polls it hasn’t been all good news – if they had a settled leadership how would they be polling?

Comments on the poll results cement a change in aspirations from National versus Labour to National versus Labour/Greens.

If David Cunliffe had any aspirations for a leadership challenge in Februrary this will make it even harder.

Greens should be very pleased with a rise suggesting a successful year for them (although part of their support must be a small exodus of Labour support).

3 News shows less support for small parties (4.4%) than OneĀ  News (8%).

When not in the news Conservatives have settled down amongst the other small parties.

The “if an election was held today” scenarios are pointless, we are two years from an election so much is yet to happen, and there are often significant movements in the weeks leading up to an election as people switch thinking from which party they currently prefer to which party they want to boost (or vote against).

Media coverage rules. They influence the numbers, count the numbers, and then over-report the numbers.

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