Campbell Live GCSB poll

Campbell Live is running a different sort of online poll, on the GCSB bill. Most media polls online are easily manipulated. They seem to be making an effort to minimise rigged voting in this one, as they are requesting Name, email address and address.

This an improvement, but it doesn’t get around the problem of non-random sampling. Groups can organise voting to try and sway it their way – and they have already started to promote it in social media of a particular persuasion.

Campbell GCSB poll

I’d like to see people also asked:

  • if they have read the bill
  • if they have read the amendments that have been passed in Parliament
  • if they understand the bill

But polls don’t usually care about things like that.

My guess is that it will show a sizeable number of people opposed to the bill, but most people don’t care about the bill and won’t bother voting.

Also unusual is the timeframe, the poll will be run over more than a week.

Thank you for taking the time to have your say on the GCSB bill. Find out what the rest of the country thinks when the results are revealed on Campbell Live on Monday August 19th.

That’s an interesting date. It might be a coincidence, but a a major protest meeting is organised for the same night.

This is (not surprisingly) being promoted at The Daily Blog and also at The Standard – Fill the Hall – Kill the Bill.

There are a significant number of people passionate about stopping the bill, and a lot more using it as a political opportunity to oppose the Government.

But I still don’t know if the wider public care much or know much about this.

21 Comments

  1. Self selecting rubbish. Collecting email addresses and names doesn’t change this. At The Daily Blog people often mention the fact that the main public polls don’t cover NZers without landlines, but polls like this are committing the ultimate sin of survey research.

    Last year the Campbell Live txt in poll about same-sex marriage showed the OPPOSITE result from random polls – 22% support vs majority support in random polls.

    Campbell made a big deal about it being ‘the second largest number of responses received’ to one of his polls.

    Here’s the thing – sample size has almost NOTHING to do with sample quality. Big numbers do not mean representative data!

    • Thanks Andrew, that puts it a bit more forcefully than me, but you’re quite right.

      The extended timeframe makes it easier for organised voting.

  2. Jeff

     /  August 9, 2013

    I think Pete, Campbell is attempting to run a honest poll, and already the critics are trying to spin fears. The outcome of the poll do sent change the fact that Mr Dunne is fucked. This is his legacy. Sorry Mr Dunne no coat tail ride for you.

    • I’m sure Campbell Live think they’re running an honest poll but this poll can’t be an honest representation of New Zealand opinion. It is self selecting, not representative.

  3. Darryl

     /  August 10, 2013

    Anything that Campbell Live organises will only attract a certain type. He puts out FB questions every day, which attracts some of the most vile comments, of abuse. Quite disgusting. I wouldn’t believe anything that comes from TV3, they are so obviously biased.

  4. Pete do you mind if I steal this image for a blog post on self-selection in polls?

  5. insider

     /  August 10, 2013

    Well well Jeff you seem to have your tits in a knot about Peter Dunne! The fact is he IS the VOTE and you are not! That makes him far from Dunne and you know it hence your nasty venom from behind the anonymity of a computer screen. Are you a Labour activist.? or just screwed up individual who has done nothing but scowl from the sideline.

    • Jeff

       /  August 10, 2013

      Jeff is my given name so I presume “insider” is yours . But as I said in a previous post “United Future will not be getting my party vote again”. So if that makes me a labour activist. then I must be a labour activist :-)

  6. R.A.Hillegers

     /  August 12, 2013

    Keys forced a person to remove comments that he is a dictator, in doing so he proved the guy right and I agree with him. Sa for the fish, anyone will be good enough to to follow rules to protect fish stocks, however the fish belong to everyone and only dictators would try to own them.

  7. rudy hillegers

     /  August 14, 2013

    Please everyone, its either a democratic method or not and there is no democracy since keys took the helm. The fool forgets not to be arrogant and he treats the people who voted for him like fools. eg. The voters only care about fish??? Please do not allow any more politicians on your boat as keys on them has obviously led to the fish debacle. The gcsb bill is another example, the smacking bill another. Too many lies to mention. I can fix it by sacking them all {politicians} and outsourcing theit jobs to INDIA. They may get lucky and find some work cleaning toilets for a bowl of rice. I would sleep well that night

    • Darryl

       /  August 14, 2013

      #rudy hillegers
      You must be joking. I hope you don’t think a Labour-Green, Mana, NZF can do better. Give me John Key/National any day, and fishing is more important to the average Kiwi, than the GCSB Bill, which is only being cleaned up from what Labour introduced in 2003. I leave you to eat your bowl of rice in India.
      PS: the name is Key, NOT Keys.

      • R.A.Hillegers

         /  August 15, 2013

        Democracy is obviously not in your agenda and those that have plenty don’t care about those that don’t so I know which one you are.

  8. R.A.Hillegers

     /  August 15, 2013

    By the way a bowl of rice is on the way as I have spoken to those that eat noodles to get by which you obviously don’t. The day may come for you yet I hope

    • Darryl

       /  August 15, 2013

      Playing the victim card. God Bless You.

      • R.A.Hillegers

         /  August 15, 2013

        You have the same idiot attitude as key. Totally lame as his victim count increases by the day. By the way dictate I LIKE KEY

        • Darryl

           /  August 15, 2013

          Go and bury your head in the sand.

          • R.A.Hillegers

             /  August 15, 2013

            Don’t want to put it where yours is. The key is you like it in the sand and democratically I wont.

  9. R.A.Hillegers

     /  August 16, 2013

    After watching CAMPBELL LIVE last night there are quite a few who believe we need watching for our own safety, however who comes into the country was not democratically decided, so the powers that be can spy on them and not its citizens thereby taking responsibility for its own decisions on our behalf without our consent and at our cost. There seems to be an overall belief that when something goes wrong stick it to the whole population. [ A rush through will defy their right to the decision process. THEY WILL DO AS THEY ARE TOLD EVEN THOUGH THEY PAY OUR WAGES] Remember that you and I are their employers. Perhaps a 90 day trial continuous would fit them nicely. Perhaps a learning period on reduced wages would fit the politicians. Flat line wages are working well however politicians have escaped that debacle as well. Nice pay increases for them on already high wages. But were worth it. Yeah right
    Forget the jobs well do gay rights, fishing, gcsb bill , screw them with tax, hide our wrong using any method possible.
    I guess to cap the whole thing its about trust, loyalty, common sense, reducing greed, and above all democracy.

  10. R.A.Hillegers

     /  August 21, 2013

    Keys the man with the gambling habit is now gambling with the whole of our assets and social structure. The only way to fix dilemma is a new structure for politicians. No Super save your own like the poor. No exit package. Total transparency. If caught deceiving those that pay and vote for them immediate dismissal, No percentage increases as they become ridiculous against the poor. eg 9 per cent for then would need 50 per cent for the poor. No negotiating pay increases if no one else can have them. The best success key had was the bike lanes. MY GOD

  11. R.A.Hillegers

     /  August 21, 2013

    Some times the fish one catches may only reach 9 once a season, of course not for the rich boys with the fancy gear like key went on with us all believing he was in favor of kiwi fishing life. An example was Matt yeeha with a large snapper at bay of islands quote [This ones bigger than my stuffed one o my wall???? and you don’t need to go far out and save gas after driving all the way up north in his flash rig.?????? A few hundred ks isn’t far?????

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