Bad poll for National, Labour

The latest Roy Morgan poll has both National and Labour down into worrying territory with Greens and Conservatives being upwards movers:

  • National 45% (down 3%)
  • Greens 16% (up 4.5%)
  • Labour 26% (down 1.5%)
  • Maori Party 0.5% (down 0.5%)
  • Act NZ (1%, up 0.5%)
  • United Future 0% (down 0.5%)
  • NZ First 6% (down 0.5%)
  • Internet-Mana Party 1% (down 1.5%)
  • Conservative Party of NZ 3.5% (up 2.5%)
  • Independent/ Others is 1% (unchanged)

3% isn’t a huge move but 45% is into real worry territory for National, especially if it’s part of a downwards trend.

Labour appear to be either also tainted by Dirty Politics or just seen as crap. Greens are finally benefiting with their best result ever.

Internet-Mana seem to have lost traction while Conservatives are on the rise.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 762 electors from August 18-31, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 3.5% (down 3%) didn’t name a party.

Results: http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5767-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-september-3-2014-201409030312

PDF including table of results

Collins and Slater appear to have lied about Facebook

On Monday Judith Collins and Cameron Slater denied having any Facebook communications and suggested they could have been forgeries.

@JudithCollinsMP

I have no record of any FB conversations with Whaleoil. Cam Slater has advised that he had no FB conversations with me. Forgeries?

@Whaleoil

Latest smear is false, I have never had FB conversations with @judithcollinsmp. Hackers break the law, media ignoring crime

However @Whaledump has tweeted and dumped:

.@JudithCollinsMP and @WhaleOil think there’s no evidence because they deleted the account that JC was using.

The content of the messages identify them as @JudithCollinsMP’s, clear as day.
http://pastebin.com/URchZJyJ

This includes:

————————-
July 31, 2011
————————-
Facebook User, 7/31, 2:44am

Yes, saw it! She will too as will the others. AB was helping young Nats distribute my Collins Courier newspaper yesterday. I was surprised.
————————-
Cameron Slater, 7/31, 2:45am

as am i

maybe he is looking for some young blood

This is a strong suggestion Collins and Slater may have lied about not using Facebook.

That would make the hole Collins is in even deeper.

I’m a conservative with a strong right lean

Well, no I’m not of course but that’s what Lynn Prentice has claimed. Very funny.

I’m not sure if it’s intended as some sort of insult or it’s just through ignorance. People from the far left often presume that anyone not agreeing with everything they believe must be an opposite extreme.

And even funnier is that this comes with a claim about me being obsessed with his Standard in a contrived reason to obsess some more about me.

In last night’s debate John Key had a wee dig at “left wing blogs”. Lynn reacted:

Lynn Prentice ‏@lprent

@thestandard – so far I have heard @johnkeypm impune our site a number of times. Sleazy dirty arsehole – just like @Whaleoil

I nudged him “You wouldn’t impune another site at all, would you Lynn?”

Nope. I impune people. Particularly those obsessing on ours. Looks at your tags

Look we’re bigger than National to NZs obsessed blogger
https://twitter.com/lprent/status/506726740182306816/photo/1

Lynn frequently ‘impunes’ blogs, particularly Kiwiblog because he also has an obsession about David Farrar’s success there.

There’s a simple answer to why I’ve posted more about The Standard than Kiwiblog or National – Farrar doesn’t ban people for expressing political opinions so I’m free to dig at National at Kiwiblog as much as I like, unlike his poor Standard where he bans people  he hasn’t got the guts to debate with.

And who is obsessed? He has just posted at The Standard knowing that as he bans me from responding I won’t. He claims the post has nothing to do with me – but mentions me first and last in the post.

Dirty politics in Dunedin

Nope, fortunately despite the title this post is definitely is not about the tediously infamous Pete George1. :twisted:

He then has some filler that looks like an excuse to do a Clayton’s post directed at me, it’s about a debate in Dunedin that wouldn’t normally rate a mention at The Standard. Then the post closes:

  1. Pete George would have to be New Zealand’s most obsessive blogger since Dad4Justice stopped haunting every blog that he wasn’t banned at. He is conservative who considers that he is in the centre of politics, but his tag cloud indicates that he has a strong right lean. Because he attacks the left and especially the left blogs at every available opportunity, we easily dwarf his tags for National in his tag cloud. I am so glad that this political fool isn’t in Auckland.

As I said, I confront the right as well but they aren’t so big on banning opinions they don’t like so I can diss John Key and National in the bigger forum of Kiwiblog. One of the primary reasons for using YourNZ is to express myself on things that people try to stop me from talking about to their faces.

Conservative – yeah right. I’m sure the Conservative supporters at Kiwiblog will be aghast or in stitches.

And I’m as ‘far right’ as Lynn is  fair and reasonable as chief ‘moderator’ at The Standard – most of his bans over the last few months have been clearly designed to keep unwelcome opinions away until after the election.

Of course that protects the Labour orientated anti-National crusade that’s going on there at the moment where most posts are nothing like Labour’s #votepositive meme – they use The Standard to maintain a barrage of attack politics posts while denying it has anything to do with Labour.

Dishonest is dirty. 

If you want to see an honest look at Dirty Politics the rest of lprent’s post points to the debate will be live streamed and then available to view on Youtube.

Debating ‘Dirty Politics’: Media, Politics and Law” - debate on Friday from 1pm-4pm. 

1:00-1:15: Opening interview with Mr Nicky Hager
1:15-2:05: Media panel with Dr Rosemary Overell; Dr Holly Randell Moon; Dr Brett Nicholls and Dr John Farnsworth.
2:05-2:55: Politics panel with Dr Bryce Edwards and Professor Richard Jackson.
2:55-3:45: Law panel with Professor Paul Roth and Professor Ursula Cheer
3:45-4:00: Closing remarks from Mr Nicky Hager

It will be live streamed on youtube.

So I’m glad I’ve inspired Lynn to use me to promote something that could be very interesting.

Advance voting (I’m not)

Advance voting started today with some party leaders getting publicity putting in their votes. In trying to encourage as many people as possible to vote for them parties promote advance voting as part of their ‘get out the vote’ campaigns.

I won’t be advance voting. There could be a lot to be revealed over the next two weeks that may affect my decision. I’m likely to wait until election Day on 20 September to vote.

Advance votes are different to Special votes and are counted on the afternoon of election day and included in election night totals.

Electoral Commission: Information for voters – the who, when and where

From NZ Herald In early to make your vote count – from today

Advanced and special voting

• Opens from today
• Anyone can do it
• Over 300 voting places countrywide
• 334,558 advanced votes cast in 2011, 14.7 per cent of total vote

Key on bloggers

For the first time that I’m aware John Key has condemned Cameron Slater for his apparent involvement in a smear campaign against the Serious Fraud Office as revealed by the email that precipitated the resignation of Judith Collins.

NZ Herald reports PM condemns Slater as Cunliffe slams inquiry:

When questioned, he condemned Mr Slater for his role in what appeared to be a smear campaign on the Serious Fraud Office.

Key also took a swipe at Labour’s use of bloggers:

And he took a swipe at Labour’s failed attempts to dig dirt on him, and at the “three or four” staffers in Mr Cunliffe’s office that wrote in the left-wing blogosphere.

“It’s a known fact that Jason Ede in my office talked to a blogger. There are people in your office who have written on blogs.

“It happens on your side and you know it … and I can name them if you want me to.”

To an extent at least that’s factually correct. For example Clint Smith currently works in Cunliffe’s office (and has worked for the Greens) and has been a Standard author in the past. Mike Smith is a trustee and author at The Standard and last year worked in David Shearer’s office.

The other Standard trustee Lynn Prentice reacted to Key on Twitter:

@thestandard – so far I have heard @johnkeypm impune our site a number of times. Sleazy dirty arsehole – just like @Whaleoil

I asked “You wouldn’t impune another site at all, would you Lynn?”

Nope. I impune people. Particularly those obsessing on ours. Looks at your tags.

He had just referred to @Whaleoil as a “Sleazy dirty arsehole” – while that Twitter handle is used by Cameron Slater ‘Whale Oil’ is a blog site.

And Prentice frequently criticises blogs. Like in The desperation of the National’s sockpuppets:

Then lo and behold within a week, it turns up on one of the Nationally funded blogs like Kiwiblog or Whaleoil. Still unverified. Still without proof. Still not a story that any journalist would touch because it would violate the press council rules.

And on Wakeup call for the media – has Slater done us all a favour?

Like a laser, a non-story would pumped back and forth between Whaleoil and Kiwiblog, each remarking on what the other had said, until journos started to write stories about “allegations” raised by the blogs.

The arseholes of the net will choose to hang off the self-destructive like Slater or dive into the older sewer at Kiwiblog. The more rational will come here or to Public Address or Transport Blog where the conversations may be robust but their comments can be heard.

Prentice raises some valid points especially in his post The desperation of the National’s sockpuppets but also makes unsubstantiated assertions about blogs, especially regarding the funding of them.

Prentice has a history of denying links between Labour and The Standard but they don’t stack up – see:

It was significant that Key finally publicly condemned Slater in last night’s debate, albeit on one specific issue and not for Whale Oil’s wider efforts to undermine opponents, democracy and political debate. Key has failed to condemn enough, but at least this is a start.

Expect Slater to react today.

Key also poked a stick at Labour’s connection with blogs that provoked a typical reaction of denial from Prentice. At least Key has made a start in acknowledging condemning dirty blogger politics.

Cunliffe on taxing trust owned homes

The main talking point – and turning point – of last night’s debate was when David Cunliffe failed to answer a question from John Key on taxing of trust owned family homes.

Patrick Gower at 3 News:

There is a fine line between Bantam and Brat, but Key landed a blow on Cunliffe over the Capital Gains Tax that left the Labour leader flummoxed and rattled.

Cunliffe could not answer Key’s question about whether family homes in Trusts would be exempt from the tax – but he should have been able to, as he developed the policy.

Cunliffe’s helpers were quick to answer in social media and will have advised him on it during the debate break, so afterwards he had an answer.

Vernon Small at Stuff:

Cunliffe clarified to media after the debate that Labour’s policy placed emphasis on the “family home” rather than legal ownership.

“I’ve learned to check my facts and John Key got it wrong. A family home does not incur capital gains tax [under Labour], whether it is owned by a trust or not.”

Cunliffe said an “expert panel” would decided whether a homeowner was selling a primary residence. 

Labour promised an expert panel would clarify the tricky questions on their CGT leading up to the election in 2011. They’ve had three years to work things out but are still deferring to an expert panel after the election.

From Labour’s Policy webpage Capital gains tax (excluding the family home):

Labour will introduce a capital gains tax, excluding the family home.

  • Trusts: We will ensure trusts are not used as a means of avoiding a CGT.

No detail there.

Labour published a detailed CGT policy before the last election but I can’t find it searching on their website now.

Key shark bite yet to come?

The key unanswered questions in relation to the @Whaledump/Rawshark hacked data releases is how close to the action John Key was.

Key has tried to distance himself while notably failing to openly condemnwhat has been revealed. This may be as much to do with the timing as anything, he will be trying to minimise the impact on his election campaign.

But is a Key Rawshark bite yet to come?

Evidence revealed so far suggests not, despite Hager’s attempt to link this right up to the top of the political chain. His Key exposé could be a fizzer.

The revelations keep dribbling out. For obvious reasons centred on Cameron Slater the latest ones have inconclusive links with Judith Collins.

The major new interest is on whether Mark Hotchins bankrolled a smear campaign against the Serious Fraud Office and the Financial Markets Authority while they were investigating him.

But the big question remains unanswered – what level of involvement did John Key have in the ‘dirty politics’? Was it an ongoing dirty political campaign as suggested by Hager in his book, either directed or at least mandated by the Prime Minister?

Or was it some peripheral players who inflated their level of influence in tandem with their egos?

Significant parts of Hager’s book – chapters two and three and the last two chapters – cover Key and Beehive involvement. This was obviously Hager’s biggest area of interest, but he was far from conclusive. There was no smoking gun pointing at Key.

There is a significant potential link through Jason Ede, but there is no evidence that he was a major part of Key’s communications. Hager referred to Ede as a ‘senior staffer’ in Key’s office who was leading ‘black ops’ in close association with bloggers.

Ede can’t have been that vital a part of Key’s office he has moved out and now works for the National Party. And I have doubts that liaison with bloggers would have been a top communications priority, blogs remain relatively small peripheral players in the world of political communications.

Despite Hager’s focus on Key using bloggers via Ede he failed to pin anything damning on Key. Hager has insisted he has seen all the data and was given all the political material. David Fisher reported at NZ Herald:

Hager says he spent weeks talking the person into letting him see the material and use it to build the narrative which became Dirty Politics.

The hacker, says Hager, gave him everything. “I’ve seen everything. I’m 100 per cent sure.” The hacker then expressed a desire to keep back some material for himself.

“We kind of negotiated how much,” he says. “I said ‘can I have all the political stuff’.” Hager got what he asked for and so, the book was written.

If Hager has seen everything, and was given all the ‘political stuff’, and his main target was Key, then surely he would have used the most damaging material and nailed Key if he could.

But there are some doubts Hager has seen everything. Rawshark seems to be drip feeding Fisher at the Herald and also provided Matt Nippert with a major story in the latest Sunday Star Times, but that targeted Hotchins – largely non-political material.

There are rumours that @Whaledump will release all the material related to the Key link, communications involving Jason Ede, but that’s not what @Whaledump has indicated.

On August 22 he tweeted:

Last last political post later today.

Yesterday (1 September) he announced a return from a week on holiday and tweeted:

Thank you for your patience. Like I said, this isn’t all about party politics.

He then released a few communications involving Mark Hotchins and followed with this tweet:

This is a corrupt network of politically-connected individuals who launder political & media influence for money, power & personal revenge.

He has specifically stated he has posted the last of his political material and Hager insists he had access to all the political material.

Unless @Whaledump/Rawshark has lied in Twitter and has lied to Hager and retained data that damns Key it would appear as if there is no key shark bite to come.

If that’s the case it would suggest that the hack missed getting evidence that would condemn Key – or Hager had more agenda than facts to back up his Key case.

Whaledump versus Matthew Hooton

Matthew Hooton is involved in ‘Dirty Politics’ by his inclusion in Nicky Hager’s book. He has also chosen to include himself in the ongoing media discussions.

As a paid PR consultant it’s a curious approach, as is the stances he is taking and the stories and rumours he has been promoting.

@Whaledump has come back from a supposed week holiday and taken a new tack – he has attacked Hooton.

I’m back! I had a nice week. Did you have a nice week? I hope I didn’t miss anything important while I was on holiday.
Thank you for your patience. Like I said, this isn’t all about party politics.
Have you learnt nothing from #DirtyPolitics? @MatthewHootonNZ has no idea what I plan to do. How could he?
There are no rumours. @MatthewHootonNZ made them up to ratfuck Judith Collins. And those reporting his rumours are helping him.

Those reporting his ‘rumours’ include TVNZ (q & A) and Radio NZ. 

One of Hooton’s rumours is that more data is going to be dumped. He probably concerns about what may incriminate him he, with good reason. 

It seems to be Hooton versus Whaledump, Slater, Collins and Key. 

His past may also be against him if Whaledump dumps on him.

Slater’s long game as good as pig shit

Cameron Slater has often claimed to be playing a ‘long game’, as he stated in a recent blog post: “You people know I play a long game.”

His ball is now seen as toxic and many people will have been rapidly re-assessing their willingness to play with him in the future.

His short game is in tatters with his friend Judith Collins’ career teetering on the edge of a cliff largely of Slater’s making. And National’s election chances have been severely dented, as noted by ‘Mark’ on Kiwiblog:

Key and the National leadership have very little time to try to get the election agenda back onto policy issues. The concept of a Labour/Greens coalition ruining the country is an awful prospect but thanks to Collins apparent indiscretions what looked highly unlikely is now becoming a very real threat

Despite Labour’s awful second term and Cunliffe’s inherent lack of popularity Collins and Slater may have achieved a defeat for National.

Also thanks to Slater Collins’ long game appears to be in tatters. She may be able to recover to Minister level but I doubt Key would giver her that back if National cling on. But Collins must have slipped down the National pecking order significantly, and any leadership ambitions must be burnt toast.

And Slater is toxic damaged goods. His revenue options must have been severely affected. And who in politics with serious ambitions would want to be seen to be associated with him. Apart from Collins the other MPs assisted by Slater and Lusk are remaining very quiet on any links. If they have any ambition or sense they will have cut their mentors off altogether.

When you keep abusing and kicking the referee, all the players of the other team and many players of your own team once the ball has burst as it has done future game prospects must be severely limited.

In a recent blog post Key’s not my guy either Slater wrote:

As Key knows, he’s not my guy either.

He also repeated something he often says:

You wrestle with pigs, two things are certain. You get dirty, and the pig likes it.

But sooner or later the number of people willing to go near or be associated with the sty will dry up.

On Q & A two weeks ago Slater seemed to suggest he was bigger than the current Prime Minister.

Susan Wood: You must realise now that from the Prime Minister’s perspective you’d be pretty toxic. He’ll be wanting to keep away from you to distance himself. Surely he will be doing that won’t he, and you’ll find yourself out in the cold?

Cameron Slater: It’s of no concern to me. Prime Ministers come, Prime Ministers go. You know in my lifetime I’ve met and dealt with almost every Prime Minister from Robert Muldoon till the present day. Long after John Key has disappeared from the political scene I’ll still be involved.

(Video)

What future Prime Minister or prospective party leader or Prime Minister would want to be associated with the dirty politics of Slater?

Slater has always been and remains unrepentant about his methods, but they must surely be consigned to a less than savoury part of our political history.

He may well be still involved in the political scene after Key has departed but his ambitions of being a major player must be as diminished as his credibility.

Bloggers come, bloggers go.

And hopefully the Slater style of dirty politics is as good as gone. It’s not the long game most people want in a decent modern democracy.

Slater may see his future as wrestling in mud but his long game is as good as pig shit.

Messages of support for Whale Oil

Over the past week or two Whale Oil has posted a number of messages of support. There’s another one today:

Message of Support

by Cameron Slater on August 31, 2014 at 8:30am

From the mail bag

By the way, despite all the haters out there, I and many others continue to enjoy your site. We dont have to like or agree with everything you say – but it is a good platform for you and many others to have their say about whatever is topical at the time.

At times discussions, expressions and sentiments may get a bit carried away, but that is what we should all be able to enjoy in NZ, the freedom of speech and the right to express a view despite how others may view it. It seems the liberal left no longer regard freedom of speech as a a cornerstone of our society and want comments that express a view politically opposed to theirs shut down.

Never mind that they can shout obscenities at the Prime Minister or create songs depicting a despicable act on his daughter – that is not “dirty politics” because it was one of their own saying it. They have such different rules it is laughable.

You have to laugh about it Cam although I am sure you are finding it hard to do this at times. None of us, and I mean none of us would want our personal emails hacked and then put on the public stage for every Tom, Dick & Harry to pick over and come to there own conclusions.

In my group of friends there is a friend of a friend who we think is a cocaine user.

We call him snorter and often make reference to the fact that whenever he makes another stupid decision that he has probably snorted another line of cocaine. We have absolutely no evidence that he has ever taken cocaine and to be fair – he probably hasnt.

However, if someone was to read our personal emails and then put it out there that “so in so” was a cocaine user that would be so wrong.

People say things about others all the time, without actually knowing the truth and never expecting it to get out to the public domain. Rachel Smally called fat women Lards and I am sure she didnt want that to be known.

This could be a genuine message from a supporter. As could the current comments in response.

Great letter. I concur with all that has been written. We won’t be going elsewhere for our news, anyway where would one go to get a balanced viewpoint? I suspect that for a short while those tips from politicians and journalists might be a little lean, but eventually they will come back as they will need you Cam. Be true to yourself and all will be fine.

This is a really important point. I work in the health sector – if conversations between staff were recorded and distributed publicly there would be outrageous indignation that such things could be said. This would apply to most occupations. Private communication is not and should never be subject to public broadcast unless there is criminal activity involved. This is a really important privacy issue.
It seems that it’s OK if the “greater good” is being protected – but who is to decide what the “greater good” is? In politics it seems that it is that which your side supports. That’s all.
Well it seems that those who are digging up private communications (illegally!) and hurting others do finally deserve to have it dished up to them.

You have warned them several times.
Go for the jugular, Cam!
They deserve nothing less.

But it’s difficult not to see these as anything other than self promoting PR. Whale Oil has history.

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