Excellent poll coverage from NZ Herald

NZ Herald (Audrey Young) poll coverage starkly contrasts with 3 News, giving clear results with good consideration of wider things like trends and polls from other sources in Digipoll: Minor parties surge as Labour sinks lower.

Summary of results:

The full party vote results compared with last week’s:

National 50.7 (up 0.7)
Labour 24.1 (down 1.1)
Greens 11.4 (down 2.3)
NZ First 5 (up 0.7)
Maori Party 1 (up 0.3)
Internet Mana 3.4 (up 1.3)
Conservatives 3.3 (up 0.7)
Act 0.3 (down 0.3)
United Future 0.2 (down 0.2)
PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER (compared with last week)
John Key 67.8 (up 3)
David Cunliffe 11.6 (down 2.8)
Winston Peters 8.2 (up 3.1)
Russel Norman 3.8 (up 0.3)

The poll of 750 eligible voters was conducted between August 21 and 27. The Party vote is of decided voters only and 7.9 per cent were undecided compared to 12.5 per cent last week.

This contrasts in some aspects with the 3 News/Reid Research poll yesterday – National, Labour down in 3 News poll  – which shows that a single poll can’t be taken as a definitive indication of an election outcome.

National are significantly higher and rising in this poll, and Labour are 2% lower and will be worried.

NZ First and Conservatives have risen but not as much, and Internet-Mana has jumped up potentially significantly.

Poor poll coverage by Gower and 3 News

3 News via Patrick Gower covered their latest poll result poorly. They showed either an awful knowledge of how polling works or they deliberately ignored polling 101 to promote misleading headlines.

Their online headline: Latest political poll big blow for John Key

National were down 2.5 to 45% – this will be a concern for National but it is a fairly moderate movement, well within the margin of error.

It probably reflects a reaction to how John Key has handled the fallout from ‘dirty politics’ (poorly) but it’s too soon to tell whether it is a temporary blip or a lasting change in support.

Labour were also down 2.5, to 26.4% – this should be at least as big a concern for them but the online article doesn’t mention it.

The lead paragraph and most of the article is on one theme:

John Key’s nightmare is suddenly real. Tonight’s 3 News political poll shows the Prime Minister can no longer do without New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.

That’s nonsense. This is just one poll three and a half weeks out from the election. It is far from certain that the Prime Minister “can no longer do without” Winston Peters.

NZ First were up 1.7 to 6.3% and look a good bet to remain in Parliament but there’s no certainty they will maintain this level of support nor any certainty they will hold the balance of power post-election.

Gower led his 6 o’clock news coverage with…

Yes dirty politics has caused political chaos.

One poll over-reported is not political chaos.

Look at these numbers, National takes a hit down 2.5 to 45.5, this hurts, John Key knows he could be gone on this…

Key already knew (and has said so a number of times) he will be ‘gone’ if the election doesn’t go his way. National 44.5% in January, 45.9% in March.

…but Labour also take a hit, down to 26.4%, that’s a drop of 2.6, voters simply do not see them as an alternative.

What? National could be gone but there’s no alternative? It’s Labour’s lowest 3 news result since November 2011 but hey, that’s not significant.

The Greens go up, one of their best results on this poll…

Up 0.5 (a negligible change in polling terms) to 13.5% which is their best result in the Reid Research records back to Sep/Oct 2010. Trending up since May.

…and just look at this, Winston Peters up to 6.3 percent, over the threshold, Peters is back, and just wait to see the mess that this could cause.

Of course a mess is great for headlines but is far from assured despite Paddy’s best efforts to talk one up.

While Peters is obviously dominant – and Gower seems to have an obsession with him – it is actually NZ First, the party, not just Peters. There is no guarantee Peters will be back, despite Gower’s wishes.

Turning now to the minor parties and the Conservatives, up to 4.6% – obviously picking up a protest vote from right wing voters turned National…

They quite likely got some protest vote but Colin Craig has claimed there jump is due to their campaign mail box drop. Opinion shifts can be for many reasons.

…not over the five percent threshold, remember John Key did not do that electorate deal in East Coast Bays, and won’t he be regretting that right now.

Why would Key regret making a sensible decision based on one poll? If Conservatives can sustain this support it’s quite possible they could keep surging past the 5% threshold. Or their support could drop back again, polls can be temporary and fickle.

Gower reported Key “pleading with his supporters for help” (like every other party does in an election campaign) – Key: “if there’s any National supporter that was thinking about the fact that they might be able to stay at election day leave it up to everyone else, um, maybe this poll will give them a wake up call”. 

As for Internet-Mana, they are steady on 2.1%…

I think that’s quite notable. Internet-Mana were 0.2 in May and jumped to 1.8% in June when they combined and started campaigning, but since then have got 2.3 (July) and 2.0 (early August). Apart from one poll (Stuff/IPSOS having them up to 4% indications are Internet-Mana may have plateaued. Roy Morgan poll fortnightly and have always had them in the 1-2.5% range.

…and the other minor parties simply doing nothing and not worth talking about.

Small party support often moves late in an election campaign but Gower is totally dismissive, choosing to exclude them from any coverage. This makes it very difficult for small parties to be heard.

Turning now to seats in the house, this is worth talking about…

Some of the minor parties could be critical in this so are suddenly worth talking about.

…look at this, National 57 plus it’s allies that we say would get electorate seats, that would not be a majority in a 122 seat Parliament…

It’s far from certain it would be a 122 seat Parliament.

…they would only have 61 seats.

If a lot of uncertain results turned out as predicted by 3 News.

Turning now to the left wing block, they would get to 53 seats. It would all come down to New Zealand First’s 8 seats…

Again, far from certain that this exact result would be replicated in next month’s election.

…they would be needed to give John Key the power to govern, but if Winston Peters went to the left it would be a 61 all draw, now this is a hung Parliament, a tie, nobody could govern.

Apart from the many variables and assumptions involved this wouldn’t necessarily result in a hung Parliament. For example NZ First or Greens could agree to guarantee confidence and supply and remain on the cross benches. As much as Gower would love his poll to be definitive there are many possibilities.

It’s a realistic election night result.

It’s a possible result, but a non-tied or non-hung Parliament is far more likely.

Key would have to give Peters what he wants…

No, they would negotiate, and even on these numbers 57 versus 8 is a strong position. Some concessions would be made but Peters couldn’t dictate everything, that would be democratically ludicrous.

…or Peters could force another election.

Possibly, if Greens don’t step in. But there would be a lot of pressure on Peters to enable a stable Government. If he forced another election he and NZ First would be at high risk of being booted out by voters.

So first dirty politics, and now a political mess.

This is dirty poll reporting with a mess of assumptions and poorly considered assertions.

The report then showed sound bite edit of interviews with Key, Cunliffe, Peters, Craig. Typically Russell Norman described it sensibly as “dynamic is how…it’s dynamic at the moment”. Not in Gowers world, just before this Gower repeated his hung Parliament dream. Then 3:45 into the item Gower says:

But the political reality is it comes down to Winston Peters prefers as Prime Minister…

That’s just one amongst a number of possibilities so it’s far from a reality.

…he could choose Key or force a new election.

Dirty politics changing everything.

Not really, two or three months ago when NZ First rose to 5.1% Gower was just as adamant that that changed everything.

So Key has suffered a blow from dirty politics but it is not fatal, he could still govern on this, he’d just need Peters would be unlikely to force another election knowing he would be punished by voters and probably annihilated if he did…

Why mention that now rather than in earlier predictions? 

…but just imagine the negotiations, a true nightmare scenario.

Gower’s nightmare is he would be shut out of the negotiations and would have to wait a week or two for a dramatic story.

And remember Labour on 26%, that’s a shocker, they are actually going backwards here.

So if they are going backwards by the time we get to the election the actual result could be different to Paddy’s poll?

Yet voters clearly think that Key has not handled dirty politics properly…

The poll does nothing to prove that.

So, dirty politics, a crazy campaign, and now chaotic results.

There is no result until September 20. The only thing that’s chaotic here is Gower’s reporting of just one of many pre-election polls.

Remember that polls ask “who would you vote for if an election was held today” – and the polling period is already historical. Polls don’t try to predict how people would vote on election day, they can’t look into the future. Neither should Gower.

There are 24 days to go.

That’s one accurate thing Gower has reported. He mentioned ‘dirty politics’ throughout his report but ignored this only fact in making all his dramatic projections.

Well informed voters rely a lot on media coverage. Reporting like this is grossly misleading and serves voters very poorly. It serves our democracy very poorly.

Gower is playing dirty politics with our election, putting his own ill-informed dramatics ahead of reason, facts and polling basics.

A political editor should be much better than this. 

UPDATE: And Gower is just now talking on Firstline admitting he got previous predictions wrong, particularly regarding Colin Craig and the Conservatives. He has mentioned that Conservative advertising may have affected this poll result.

 

National, Labour down in 3 News poll

Both Labour and National are down over 2% in the latest 3 News/Reid Research poll. NZ First and the Conservative have the biggest rises.

  • National 45% (-2.5)
  • Labour 26.4% (-2.6)
  • Greens 13.5% (+0.5)
  • NZ First 6.3% (+1.7)
  • Conservative Party 4.6% (+2.1)
  • Internet-Mana 2.1% (+0.1)
  • Maori Party 0.7% (-0.1)
  • UnitedFuture 0.4% (+0.2)
  • ACT Party 0.3% (no change)

This may reflect public annoyance at dirty politics – both the large parties tend to be blamed together.

Colin Craig claims a letter box drop of a campaign pamphlet is behind his party’s rise but that will be only part of the reason.

3 News: Latest political poll big blow for John Key

Details as per Curia:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 20 to 25 August 2014 approx

Client: 3 News

The new results aren’t on the table here yet but sit should be updated: http://www.reidresearch.co.nz/TV3+POLL+RESULTS.html

Poll shakeup – Conservatives jump to 4.6%

Patrick Gower has tweeted a teaser on a 3 News poll to be released in the news tonight.

3-News Reid Research poll out tonight – all the fallout from “Dirty Politics”… A real shake-up.

However the Conservative Party may have jumped the gun with their result (they quickly deleted the tweet). If they are correct it certainly hints at significant changes.

It would make their 3 News/Reid Research result over the past few polls:

  • May 2.3%
  • June 2.8%
  • July 2.7%
  • August 3-13 2.5%
  • August 19-25 4.6%

This could be a reaction to ‘dirty politics’ and it’s aftermath in part but could also be due to the extensive advertising the Conservatives have been doing.

UPDATE: 3 News has confirmed what had leaked out – in a poll to be released Conservatives are up 2.2 to 4.6%

Patrick Gower:

3 News Political Editor Patrick Gower says tonight’s poll shows Dirty Politics has given the political landscape “a real good shake”.

“Not only does it have the Conservatives nearly at five per cent – there are also significant results for some of the other parties.”

“Without giving too much away – there really has been some fallout from the Dirty Politics saga,” he says.

“A lot of people have views on what John Key should do about Judith Collins. He hasn’t acted against her – we will give the public’s view on that.”

Sounds ominous for National but not surprising considering how poorly John Key addressed the issues raised.

Currently published poll results for 3 News/Reid Research

Collins staunch with Slater

Judith Collins has reiterated her friendship with Cameron Slater and won’t condemn his “dirty politics”. Radio NZ reports:

Judith Collins digs in over Dirty Politics

Justice Minister Judith Collins is defending her friendship with right-wing blogger, Cameron Slater, saying she supports her friends no matter what.

She has admitted emailing details about public servant Simon Pleasants, including his personal phone number, to Mr Slater in 2009.

Mr Pleasants was subsequently abused on Mr Slater’s Whale Oil blog and also received death threats.

…she told Radio New Zealand she did not condone the death threats.

She would not say whether she approved of Mr Slater’s post.

Ms Collins refused to be drawn on whether she had effectively facilitated cyber-bullying by passing on Mr Pleasants’ details.

Obviously she couldn’t condone death threats but by not condemning how the information she supplied was used she appears to remain complicit.

Friendship defended

Ms Collins last night also defended her friendship with Mr Slater.

“Just because he is a friend of mine – as by the way are many hundreds of other people – does not mean to say that I condone everything that anybody who is a friend of mine does,” she said.

“That is the nature of friendship. You put up with your friends no matter what if you’re a loyal friend. And I’m a very loyal person.”

Loyalty to friends can be important but by refusing to distance herself from Slater’s behaviour she remains severely tainted by association with his dirty politics. Slater is now politically toxic.

Mark Mitchell, National MP for Rodney, is distancing himself, denying he paid Slater for assistance in his successful candidacy bid in 2011. See Conflicting claims over National’s Rodney selection.

Collin’s political career looks like being on life support so she may feel she has nothing more to lose by being seen to be remaining closely associated to Slater. That’s her call.

Slater often talks about one of his ‘rules’ – if you wrestle with pigs you’ll get dirty and the pig will enjoy it. Slater obviously enjoys getting dirty.

Collins has chosen to remain closely associated with this.

It’s a shame that Collins has been and remains tainted. By many accounts she has generally been a more than competent Minister of Justice.

In my own limited experience with Collins she has been approachable and helpful – earlier this year I asked for some information and she arranged for it to be provided – no OIA involved. Few ministers respond to requests like this.

But she has done a number of unwise things. The latest to be highlighted, and her continued loyalty to a friend who likes playing dirty means mud remains stuck to Collins as well.

She should hold her electorate easily as she got a close to 10,000 majority in Papakura last election.

She is currently Minsister of Justice, ACC and Ethnic Affairs and is National’s fifth ranked Minister, and is number 6 on their party list for this election. But it is predicted that if National retain power John Key will have to reduce her position and responsibilities.

It could be very awkward for National to have someone closely associated with Slater making the final decision (as Minister of Justice) on Kim Dotcom’s extradition – Slater has been waging a bitter public battle against Dotcom.

Collins is on a last last chance with Key and by continuing to remain staunch with Slater she may well be seen as a high risk and a liability, especially for a third term government.

If Collins lasts until and survives the election we’ll see then how she fares. And from then through the term whether her remaining staunch with Slater drags her (and National) down further.

Sticking by friends is laudable, but sticking by mud may tank her political career.

Conflicting claims over National’s Rodney selection

In the wake of “Dirty Politics” and associated data dumps there are conflicting claims by the successful candidate Mark Mitchell (who is now an MP) and Brent Robinson.

Mitchell claims he didn’t pay for help from Cameron Slater and Simon Lusk but a post by Slater in 2011 admits “If you want to be a National candidate there is a very small group of talented, experienced professionals who will greatly enhance your chances of winning. Yes they will cost…”

Newstalk ZB reported last Friday: National MP contemplates legal action against Nicky Hager

Rodney MP Mark Mitchell denies the suggestion he hired political strategist Simon Lusk and attack blogger Cameron Slater, to undermine his opponents for National’s candidacy in the seat back in 2011.

One of those opponents, Brent Robinson, told Newstalk ZB he’s considering legal action – as the revelations suggest Mr Mitchell broke the party’s rules to get elected.

But Mr Mitchell says that’s untrue – and after the election, he may take legal action of his own, over the book.

Robinson has just been interviewed by Radio NZ – Failed National candidate wants rogue elements kicked out:

Mary Wilson: A failed National Party candidate is demanding the party weed out rogue elements that he says sabotaged his campaign in rogue safe National seat of Rodney three years ago.  The Nicky Hager book dirty politics asserts party figures have used the Whale Oil and other right wing bloggers to attack opponents, but in this case the emails detail a campaign against one of their own during a candidate selection.

The emails between Cameron Slater and Simon Lusk discuss backing contender Mark Mitchell to prove they are crucial to people’s political careers. Mr Mitchell is now the Rodney MP.

Whale Oil blogs at the time attacked two other candidates, the front runners Brent Robinson and Scott Simpson.

Mr Robinson was called shameless, unethical, unscrupulous and unfit to hold office for signing up church members to the National Party. He says it was hard to take.

Brent Robinson: I’ve got to say the process itself was pretty atrocious. The accusations that were made slandered against my character, against my reputation, and it was very very hard on myself and on my wife and children. 

This was an orchestrated paid campaign to discredit other candidates.

And what was your sense in the electorate about how seriously these posts were being taken, and how much people believed them?

I think it made a significant difference to the selection process itself.  It was a tight run race, and there were seventeen National Party delegates that vote on it and I think it did make a difference.  Look whether I would have won or not, who knows, but the fact is it took place.

And were you signing up people from your church to become National Party members?

Look I’ve got an email from the National Party General Manager that he sends to all candidates encouraging people during the process to bring people in as members of the National Party.

So I think eleven people from my small church in Orewa joined the National Party..

As a result of a direct approach from you?

Yeah. Not for myself. Um there were all sorts of people wanting to join, and if someone came to me and said “I’d like to become a member of the National Party” I’d say goodie, here’s what you need to do.

But you were encouraging them, and there was nothing wrong with that?

No, no. And other candidates did the same thing. You know branches right throughout the Rodney area increased exponentially as a result of the selection process, but that’s not unusual, that’s what takes place during National Party selection processes. 

And so when you read this chapter, and I take it that you have…

Yes.

…we see Simon Lusk saying to Cameron Slater “I’d really like Mark Mitchell to win to prove it can be done, and that you and I are crucial in people’s careers”. Simon Lusk says there is the option of course in relation to you, in reference to you, of playing the man if necessary.

Yeah and that’s certainly what took place. I found out shortly after the selection process, a number people came to me from inside and outside the National Party, and said “look you need realise what went on here”, and so there’s no great revelation to me when the came out. You know it’s interesting obviously to see it in chapter and verse in conversations between these people, and that’s pretty distressing itself…

So who came to you and explained what had gone on?

Well, people within the party that had various ideas about that, and i don’t want to publicly name who they are, you know they’re individuals and if they want to come forward that’s fine…

And Simon Lusk saying at one point that Mr Mitchell was saying that posts were having a massive effect.

Yeah and I would concur with that.

Simon Lusk to Cameron Slater “we want Scott Simpson, the other candidate, we want his people to lean on Brent to get him out first, then we can smash Scott”.

Yeah, it was interesting seeing that, and obviously Scott left, chose to leave the selection process and went on to become you know the MP over in Coromandel.

And was that part of it though that Scott Simpson’s people were leaning on you to get you out first, is that how this all works?

I can’t think of any particular recallation where you know anyone rang me up and tried to muscle me out of the process or anything like that. I think it was a bit more subtle than that but certainly well orchestrated.

Have you got any other evidence that Mark Mitchell paid for this to be done?

At the very start f the selection process I was advised to contact Simon Lusk because he helped people writing speeches and so I rang him up and Simon Lusk said “I’m sorry I can’t talk to you because I’ve been engaged by Mark Mitchell”.

And what were you expecting to have Simon Lusk do for you?

I was advised by another National Party MP who’d just been elected that he helped people write speeches. That’s fine. I had no idea of the for the lack of a better word the black ops type scenario that Mr Lusk did for his candidates.

Look Mark and I, I’m still a National Party member, Mark and I have worked on various things in Rodney since the selection process since mark’s been elected as an MP, and we’ve talked about it, we’ve openly discussed it, and I expressed to him my disappointment and disgust in what took place in the process.

So for Mark now to say that he didn’t engage these people, that he didn’t pay these people, I just find absolutely mind blowing.

But did he tell you that he’d paid them.

Yes.

He told you that he’d paid both Cameron Slater and Simon Lusk?

Mark told me that he hired them to perform this programme of work for him to get him the selection.

The programme of work being a smear campaign?

Well yes. We’ve openly discussed it in the past. That’s why I’m really surprised by this.

And understand I don’t do this to get any form of retribution. My reasoning for now for answering questions to persons like yourself , is because I wouldn’t want anyone else who put their hand up to be involved in politics in New Zealand to go through what I’ve gone through and what my family’s gone through.

Well you’re saying that the National Party needs to clean up it’s act.

They’re your words not mine. Certainly there is a rogue element that’s grown in the National Party that I think needs to be weeded out.

That’s Brent Robinson. We’ve been unable to contact Mr Slater or Mr Lusk whp’s phone message says he’s away hunting til the end of the season.

The MP Mark Mitchell says he’s very surprised by Mr Robinson’s comments. He says he’s never had a discussion with him about the Rodney selection process, or Cameron Slater or Simon Lusk.

He says he has never paid a cent to either.

  Just after the Rodney selection in 2011 Slater posted this on Whale Oil – Rodney Selection Winners and Losers.

Mark Mitchell won the acrimonious selection in Rodney last night, and it was a privilege to have been in the room during the process.

Winners
Mark Mitchell: Mark’s reputation is such it would have been an absolute travesty not to have had him selected. Reputation alone is not enough, and delegates in Rodney have told me what a fantastic guy he is, very good with people, and very genuine. It is hard to remember the last time a National candidate met delegates by helping them bail hay and then had a few beers afterwards, but this kind of touch builds loyalty, loyalty that helped Mark win on the first ballot.

Peter Goodfellow: Peter was ultimately responsible for the selection process and deserve credit for taking bold decisions to stop a deeply flawed process. Good work Peter, you have done the right thing.

Losers (0r as Phil Goff would say Not Winners)

Brent Robinson: Brent was outed as a branch stacking, immoral fundamentalist, and his preachy style on selection night really grated. He should never have tried to rig the selection as he probably would have won if he had not tried to rig the process.

Cehill Pienaar: As branch chair this man tried to ensure the fundy take over of the electorate by colluding with Brent over membership and events. His horrible political past has been exposed, and his backing the losing candidate now makes it inevitable he will be told to resign if he does not resign himself.

Karen Rolleston: For someone I keep hearing such good things about she needs to stop making dumb decisions, engage proper professional advise and start listening. She was told by respect senior party people she would lose Palmerston North. She did. She was told she would lose Rodney. She did. She was told she could well win North Shore, and she ignored this, meaning Maggie Barry is now the presumptive candidate in a field of pygmies.

Amateurs: Some boneheads in the Auckland region hierarchy have been putting about that candidates should not pay for advice or pay for strategy. They are as prissy and as puritanical as the old amateur era rugby people and need to stop this silliness. Laughably the main proponents of this argument are people who earn a living by charging for their services themselves.

If you want to be a National candidate there is a very small group of talented, experienced professionals who will greatly enhance your chances of winning. Yes they will cost, but who else won’t you pay – your lawyer, your accountant, your printer, your speech coach, the petrol station for the gas to get to delegate meetings? Professional advice costs money all over town, why not in politics?

What I can’t understand is why paying for someone who gives you the best chance of a long career in politics is wrong or unethical or whatever else the buggers muddle in Auckland seem to think is reason for not engaging professionals. Aspiring candidates should call the tip line if they want introductions to competent political advisors.

Blog readers are well aware of my views on people who behave unethically, and the best way to out them is to publish information. I realise pride is a sin, but I’m feeling just a little bit proud that I have contributed so meaningfully to the selection of a really good candidate and future National MP. I am also proud that National know that they cannot cover up skullduggery in the party. The tipline callers are many and varied and the truth will out.

There’s a number of very ironic comments in that.

Slater makes it clear who he supported. He also makes it clear about the need to pay “professionals” for results.

The data dump of online conversations between Lusk and Slater also make it clear there was a relationship between Lusk/Slater and Mitchell and that money was involved:

Simon Lusk, 1/29, 9:53pm

classy

i’ll try to line up the woman in palmerston north

i can sort out mark no worries, he doesnt mind spending

i’d really like to have him win

to prove it can be done

and that you and i are crucial in peoples career
————————-
Cameron Slater, 1/29, 9:55pm

i want to stamp out the nasty whispering campaigns like those run by HP and the cunt in Rodney
————————-
Simon Lusk, 1/29, 9:55pm

yes

which cunt in rodney?

i beleive in going negative if an opponent does
————————-
Cameron Slater, 1/29, 9:56pm

the one spiking the outsiders
————————-
Simon Lusk, 1/29, 9:57pm

i dont blame him, he has worked for it

and it isnt nasty yet, just patch protection

i want to see mark selected

but if brent plays fair i am going to play fair
————————-
Cameron Slater, 1/29, 9:58pm

well a post about sometimes when an MP has been there forever it is time to look outside the party hierachy because the MP has stifled the best
————————-
Simon Lusk, 1/29, 9:58pm

obviously with the option of playing the man if we decide it is necessary

yes

and that we need a genuine star

someone that has made it on a global scale
————————-
Cameron Slater, 1/29, 9:59pm

yep
————————-
Simon Lusk, 1/29, 9:59pm

and while brent is a willing toiler for the party

we must stop selecting second raters
————————-
Cameron Slater, 1/29, 9:59pm

youve got it
————————-
Simon Lusk, 1/29, 9:59pm

i’ll have a proper post when we pull the trigger

nice but create doubts in the minds of the delegates
————————-
Cameron Slater, 1/29, 10:00pm

yep
————————-
Simon Lusk, 1/29, 10:00pm

frame the race as a very successful man who is turning down millions a year to do the best he can for NZ
————————-
Cameron Slater, 1/29, 10:00pm

yep
————————-
Simon Lusk, 1/29, 10:00pm

and from a family with a history of public service
————————-
Cameron Slater, 1/29, 10:00pm

succesful but tough
————————-
Simon Lusk, 1/29, 10:00pm

yes, is excellent under pressure
————————-
Cameron Slater, 1/29, 10:00pm

not a panty-waist
————————-
Simon Lusk, 1/29, 10:01pm

not a bent cop becuase he didnt go up the ranks
————————-
Cameron Slater, 1/29, 10:01pm

we can sex it up with the war sotries then the media will pick it up
————————-
Simon Lusk, 1/29, 10:01pm

his dog stories are awesome

czar nailed a lot of bad bastards

including ripping a monsoon sheild of a car to sort out three gang members that were taking on mark
————————-
Cameron Slater, 1/29, 10:01pm

hope it chewed on them hard
————————-
Simon Lusk, 1/29, 10:02pm

i believe it did

mark said you when they start screaming you know the fight will go out of them
————————-
Cameron Slater, 1/29, 10:02pm

lol
————————-
Simon Lusk, 1/29, 10:02pm

one other collar czar broke a guys elbow
————————-
Cameron Slater, 1/29, 10:02pm

so tough in business, tough in terrorists, tough on crime
————————-
Simon Lusk, 1/29, 10:02pm

that is fucken impressive, bite hard enough to break and elbow
————————-
Cameron Slater, 1/29, 10:02pm

just plain tough
————————-
Simon Lusk, 1/29, 10:02pm

compassionate though
————————-
Cameron Slater, 1/29, 10:03pm

doing for the underdog

nabbing bad bastards since xxxx
————————-
Simon Lusk, 1/29, 10:03pm

how good are your media contacts to get coverage of some of his stuff protecting his staffers after the iraqi terrorists killed lots of people
————————-
Cameron Slater, 1/29, 10:03pm

easy
————————-
Simon Lusk, 1/29, 10:04pm

all his non western staff were in the same gear as the westerners, same weapons, same everything

reckoned it worked a treat
————————-
Cameron Slater, 1/29, 10:04pm

once i start pumping his story they will pick it up anyway
————————-
Simon Lusk, 1/29, 10:04pm

we need to set the scene

brent is an ok guy, a bit arrogant and not good at pressing the flesh

people dont warm to him

dont want to waste as safe seat on him

can you start finding stories about him

i think it would also be worth talking to jason ede about mark, not yet but soon

saying that he is a good news story that will appeal to the masses
————————-
Cameron Slater, 1/29, 10:06pm

ok will work on that

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10702986

nailed

another Gotcha
————————-
Simon Lusk, 1/29, 10:10pm

yes we need to think about this

how to tell the story about the nailing

that it isnt random

it is smart people making smart decisions to fuck up opponents

ede needs to know that it is your set up
————————-
Cameron Slater, 1/29, 10:12pm

he has two trips scheduled for next week

i bet the car drops him off and legs it into town
————————-
Simon Lusk, 1/29, 10:13pm

can you OIA mileage records?
————————-
Cameron Slater, 1/29, 10:14pm

yepo

SST is already doing it
————————-
Simon Lusk, 1/29, 10:14pm

good

Simon Lusk, 2/3, 9:01am

we need to sort out marks facebook page tomorrow if possible
————————-
Cameron Slater, 2/3, 9:02am

i need an awesome photo…i will make it look cool….we also need to ditch all the cheesy shit out of the photos and tidy up his personal info
————————-
Simon Lusk, 2/3, 9:03am

ok can you email me with what you need as far as photos go

i will write the story tomorrow though it might be tomorrow evening i have to get on a ferry at 110

 

————————-
Cameron Slater, 2/3, 9:05am

for the phot i need a high quality photo of him…doesn’t matter if it is warry…i’ll crop out an guns or stuff…just crisp and good quality, the bigger the better

I’m going to cut it into 5 and array them in his profile….it look scool done right
————————-
Simon Lusk, 2/3, 9:07am

hes got professional ones i have asked him for them
————————-
Cameron Slater, 2/3, 9:07am

good

send a selection

also need his login details for FB and I’ll get it sorted tomorrow
————————-
Simon Lusk, 2/3, 9:08am

ok

good message that at risk stuff is always good

 

————————-
February 7, 2011
————————-
Cameron Slater, 2/7, 8:46pm

what time and where tonight
————————-
Simon Lusk, 2/7, 8:47pm

puhoi dunno the edetails will let you know after 3 when i have met mark off the plane

 

————————-
Simon Lusk, 2/20, 4:34am

can you tell hooton that mark is a good option etc

he will be asked about it on red radio tomorrow
————————-
Cameron Slater, 2/20, 4:34am

ok

 

————————-
Simon Lusk, 2/21, 2:09am

you bet, the best way to be

did they work out you were on JLRs side

or think you remained neutral
————————-
Cameron Slater, 2/21, 2:10am

no they knew i was on jlr side

they have no idea that im on marks though

just that you are
————————-
Simon Lusk, 2/21, 2:10am

yes peter warned mark off me

in october

 

————————-
Simon Lusk, 2/21, 2:43am

sweet

mark has access to a good deer block

i think four private huts in the kaimanawas

 

————————-
Simon Lusk, 2/23, 6:56pm

there are a number of people who dont want scott

they should be paying you to write for them
————————-
Cameron Slater, 2/23, 6:56pm

lots of people should be paying me to write for them

i hope Mark is up with the play on these posts
————————-
Simon Lusk, 2/23, 6:57pm

yes am talking to him a lot

he is telling me that it is having a massive effect
————————-
Cameron Slater, 2/23, 6:57pm

hehe

 

————————-
Cameron Slater, 2/24, 6:48pm

i imagine my old man will explode

the pressure is going to be intense

the fact that Alistair is trying to knock out Mark shows that they know where the threat is from

he will shit himself reading that post that he is next to be outed
————————-
Simon Lusk, 2/24, 6:49pm

yes, and the extra time means mark can out compete him on the ground
————————-
Cameron Slater, 2/24, 6:49pm

yep

 

————————-
Cameron Slater, 2/28, 4:11am

Alistair was up seeing delegates directly, including John Evans

he is showing them the print out of the website article about mark and saying he has a dodgy past

Kate set John Evans straight…he will now be working aginst scott on that

bad move by Alistair

muckraking without substance
————————-
Simon Lusk, 2/28, 4:12am

he wants to be careful, mark likes lawyers
————————-
Cameron Slater, 2/28, 4:12am

lawyers take too long
————————-
Simon Lusk, 2/28, 4:13am

for a weakling like alastair

they dont

it is a threat
————————-
Cameron Slater, 2/28, 4:13am

I reckon a post saying that I have been asked to leak this article suposedly because it is about mark and a dodgy past
————————-
Simon Lusk, 2/28, 4:13am

he is not the kind of guy to say “Dear Lawyer”

please fuck off

yes thats a good idea
————————-
Cameron Slater, 2/28, 4:13am

by Simposn loyalists
————————-
Simon Lusk, 2/28, 4:13am

yes dirty pool
————————-
Cameron Slater, 2/28, 4:13am

, so I thought I would check a few things out before publishing it
————————-
Simon Lusk, 2/28, 4:13am

and apparetnly the 9th floor are furious

and those behind it are going to find it career limiting
————————-
Cameron Slater, 2/28, 4:14am

and the provide a link and an explanation
————————-
Simon Lusk, 2/28, 4:14am

why dont you write something, email it through to me, i will sort it out with mark and it can go online
————————-
Cameron Slater, 2/28, 4:14am

ok

i’ll write it up about how they are saying it is supposed to be bad but not actually showing people the info, so in teh interests of getting things out in the open here it is…seems pretty above board to me etc etc
————————-
Simon Lusk, 2/28, 4:16am

yes thats a pretty sound idea
————————-
Cameron Slater, 2/28, 4:16am

then theirmuck raking is exposed, it turns out to be bullshit

and we can link alistaor to shopping it at the board level in an effort to have Mark chucked out because scott fears a fair fight at selection
————————-
Simon Lusk, 2/28, 4:17am

with the threat that you are hearing that legal action is almost inevitable in rodney no matter what happens

yes and we need boag in to crack heads and feast on corpses to make sure everyone stops playing silly games
————————-
Cameron Slater, 2/28, 4:17am

also fits with President’s claim that I was to be putting in teh hit on Mark

also call for Boag, Kirk and Slater to be appointed to oversee delegate selections

 

————————-
Simon Lusk, 2/28, 6:55am

the quote is taken from another web page and used out of context

mark reckons that the original quote is a real good one
————————-
Cameron Slater, 2/28, 6:55am

send me the link then
————————-
Simon Lusk, 2/28, 6:55am

so that needs to be in there, i have asked him to send the link
————————-

Simon Lusk, 3/3, 7:12pm

aotearoa legalise cannabis have a bloody funny earthquake policy

i might write something up on this, depends on how much work i do with mark i guess

 

————————-
March 28, 2011
————————-
Simon Lusk, 3/28, 12:23am

did you talk to mark?

he is pretty pissed of with scott et al going after him with an H fee type scandal
————————-
Cameron Slater, 3/28, 12:24am

not yet

another scandal?
————————-
Simon Lusk, 3/28, 12:24am

they are saying part of his business has a dispute with the US

it does but it is a separate subsidary
————————-
Cameron Slater, 3/28, 12:24am

the cunts
————————-
Simon Lusk, 3/28, 12:24am

no link to mark at all
————————-
Cameron Slater, 3/28, 12:25am

sue
————————-
Simon Lusk, 3/28, 12:25am

yes i think some lawyers letter sstart soon
————————-
Cameron Slater, 3/28, 12:25am

what are teh details
————————-
Simon Lusk, 3/28, 12:25am

you could tell your father that people need to be careful as mark has very deep pockets and is not interested in the results

just hammering opponents
————————-
Cameron Slater, 3/28, 12:25am

i will
————————-
Simon Lusk, 3/28, 12:25am

because he can afford it and they cant

cant remember the exact details but they found it on google
————————-
Cameron Slater, 3/28, 12:26am

give kate a call

does this mean he is still in rodney
————————-
Simon Lusk, 3/28, 12:26am

i told mark i am happy to make some calls
————————-
Cameron Slater, 3/28, 12:26am

Time for Julian Miles
————————-
Simon Lusk, 3/28, 12:26am

i think it is just a reflex reaction from scott and his mates

try ot run down anyone in any way possible
————————-
Cameron Slater, 3/28, 12:27am

so he has bolted and laid a minefield

cunts

Mark should sue them…is this recent
————————-
Simon Lusk, 3/28, 12:27am

i think we should play a big game of pker with them and bluff them out of the game completely

yes today

based on yesterdays article
————————-
Cameron Slater, 3/28, 12:28am

fuck they must be bitter about the sst articel

Well I will do what ever is required

 

March 29, 2011
————————-
Simon Lusk, 3/29, 3:00am

heard from mark?
————————-
Cameron Slater, 3/29, 3:02am

nope

he has just rung

 

 

Did Whaledump know about Dotcom’s Assange plan?

The @Whaledump Twitter profile has used the address Julian Assange is staying at. Is it simply a coincidence that now Kim Dotcom has announced Assange will feature in his Town Hall attack on John Key?

A comment at Kiwiblog from ‘twofish':

The Whaledump Twitter handle carries the address 3 Hans Cres – the address of the Ecuadorian embassy in London where Wikileaks founder Julian Assange is exiled.
It is hosted on Dotcom’s mega.co.nz
______

Kim Dotcom has announced he will feature Julian Assange by video link in his Town Hall self promotion five days out from the election.

Did Whaledump know in advance of Dotcom’s plans to involve Julian Assange?
Just a little point?

An interesting little point. Apparently linking to Assange is common in thew world of hackers so it could be just a coincidence, but it adds to the common threads running though the story.

Dotcom’s Assange announcement touches raw feminist nerve

Kim Dotcom has revealed that Julian Assange will participate in his September 15 town hall revelation show via video link. This will attract even more attention to Dotcom five days before the election, but it may not all be welcome attention judging by some initial reactions.

One News reports: Assange to help Dotcom drop ‘bombshell’ on Key

Kim Dotcom has revealed to ONE News the big international name who will play a role in the bombshell he’ll drop on the prime minister.
He says WikiLeaks founder and fugitive Julian Assange, who’s holed up in Ecuador’s London embassy, is set to take part in a pre-election attack on John Key.

“I can give you a hint. Someone who is currently locked up in an embassy might be on a live video link,” Mr Dotcom said.

He has already hired journalist Glen Greenwald, who made public the Edward Snowdon leaks. Now the addition of Mr Assange confirms the September 15 event will be about New Zealand’s spying.

Dotcom seems to like associating himself with international anti-spying ‘celebrities’.

Steve Park reacted at Public Address:

Given the announcement re Assange, I may have to resile from my ‘genuinely considering voting for IMP’.

@ColeyTangerina has been tweeting, suggesting it may not be a popular appearance amongst feminists )who have already expressed concerns about Dotcom):

Assange is confirmed for Kim Dotcom’s Auckland Town Hall big reveal. Nice company there. Please, tell me again how he’s changing the Left.

By inviting a twice alleged rapist avoiding trial to be part of a “Big Reveal”, Kim Dotcom & everyone involved show how they value survivors.

I wonder when we can expect Dotcom’s self-described “feminist” advisors like Bomber to be coming out against the Assange invite?

Nothing from Martyn Bradbury on this @CitizenBomber nor at The Daily Blog yet, I’ll update if he says anything.

No Assange hasn’t been convicted of anything yet, but if you don’t prioritise the right of survivors to at least bring him to trial, GTFO.

GTFO = ‘Get the freak out” or Get the fuck off”. Urban dictionary: “It is used to express indignation, usually towards stupidity, incompetence, or both. It can be used in response to something that is unwelcome.”

And frankly, survivors need people who believe them and stand with them, so if “BUT INNOCENT UNTIL PROVEN GUILTY” is your default GTFO too.

Remember this: Dotcom has advisors. This backlash against Assange would have been raised. It was disregarded. We were disregarded.

I’ve already had my full name and former workplace outed by TDB last time I kicked up a shit like this. I wonder what it will be this time?

Some responses:

Surely Assange is a pretty big get?

yup and it’s at the expense of justice for survivors, so their priorities are clear there.

Ugh, Assange. As if it wasn’t bad enough walking past a pro-Assange message on the street each morning.

Gross gross gross gross. IMP is a bro-left party who shout left while keeping the social politics of the right.

Survivors and survivor protection first, always. No compromise.

@LewSOS

The Internet Party: perfectly fulfilling its brand promise to pseudo-libertarian tech-utopian redditor dudebros since 2014.

Assangehats of the world, unite! You have nothing to lose but your mana!

Dotcom Ass-bomb

Comments on One New’s Facebook page are also mostly negative.

Tracey Cooke:

How dare these two people (Assange and Dotcom) hold our free elections to ransom by hoping to change who people vote for by scare tactics. What a disgrace. I never thought I would see NZ become a play-thing for such fools. Liking National or Key is not really the question anymore its about our country. Selling our freedom of choice is way worse than selling our land. Labour, National, Greens they are all politicians but I wish these grand-standers would go cause trouble else-where

Mike Halliday:

Let me get this right…..a convicted criminal on the FBI’s wanted list is going to get someone who has been dodging justice by hiding in a dodgy South American embassy for two years is going to drop a bombshell about the PM of an internationally insignificant group of islands at the bottom of the world? Really? Do grow up people……

Dotcom’s pre-election self promotion always risked over-shadowing the Internet-Mana campaign. His desire to get international attention risks blowing up on him and his party locally.

Another ring added to the campaign circus.

More opposition: Fightback opposes platform for Julian Assange

Fightback supports Internet MANA as an alliance between radical indigenous and progressive tau iwi forces, challenging the neoliberal consensus.

Providing a platform for Assange, and other men with a misogynist history, discredits the movement against transnational exploitation and repression…

Fightback opposes any platform for Julian Assange.

UPDATE2: Martyn Bradbury has now posted on this at The Daily Blog.

Wikileaks founder and the engineer of revealing some of the largest abuses of power in the modern era, Julian Assange, is rumoured to be appearing at the September 15th Town Hall meeting.

Assange would join award winning investigative journalist Glen Greenwald and other guest speakers to put the argument that we face a new threat of mass surveillance and how Kim’s case is a battlefront in that new war against our civil liberties.

Assange however could be a controversial choice for some. His extradition to Sweden to answer questions on two allegations of sexual assault will have some claiming this is another example of rape culture where the victim isn’t being respected.

That sounds more like Martyn the political hopeful talking rather than Martyn the feminist sympathiser.

MORE:

And now Assange given a platform? wtf. That some ppl are perpetuating rape culture in the name of ‘changing the government’ is despicable.

Personally I think the whole song is threatening. My main concern is SK is a young woman being tormented bc who her father is.

More on Dotcom and hacking

Kim Dotcom has deliberately kept his hacking history in the news so he (and Pam Corkery) shouldn’t be surprised when the media pay it attention and wonder if Dotcom could be linked to the hacking currently in the news.

Neither should Dotcom’s supporters be surprised.

Russell Brown @publicaddress

Righto. So we’re going to have at least a day of obsessing about a theory (Dotcom is Whaledump) that is quite unlikely for various reasons.

Dotcom is almost certainly not @Whaledump – but that doesn’t rule out some much more likely possibilities.

Dotcom has a motive and a history that makes linking him in some way to @Whaledump believable, especially after his speech yesterday where he said:

“I hacked our German credit rating system and put our Prime Minister’s credit rating to zero because I didn’t like the guy. You have all figured by now there’s another Prime Minister I don’t like.”

But remember that there appears to be more than one hacker. David Fisher claims to be sourced from a separate hacker. Fisher has an established relationship with Dotcom.

There’s more than one way Dotcom could be linked to the hacking.

UPDATE: On Radio NZ Dotcom has admitted to being “very unwise” for making the connection between his hacking history and not liking the current Prime Minister. He said he is on his “final final warning”.

That’s another curious connection. There are widespread calls for Judith Collins to resign for being unwise.

Dotcom on hacking and Corkery’s reaction

Most of the media attention on the Internet-Mana campaign launch yesterday  was on Kim Dotcom’s comments on hacking and Pam Corkery’s handling of media afterwards.

3 News report in Internet Mana launch ends in chaos that Corkery’s tirade included

“You puffed-up little s**t,”. He doesn’t want to. He said three times, I don’t want to give you an interview. He’s not a candidate. He doesn’t owe you anything. When will you glove puppets of Cameron Slater just piss off?”

This happened after media interest in this part of Dotcom’s keynote speech.

Dotcom denies he’s the hacker behind Dirty Politics, but at the party’s campaign launch today said this.

“I hacked our German credit rating system and put our Prime Minister’s credit rating to zero because I didn’t like the guy. You have all figured by now there’s another Prime Minister I don’t like.”

A comment like that was always likely to raise attention.

Dotcom has been boasting about his hacking history in the Internet-Mana meetings around the country. I heard him in Dunedin. I think this is different. This is the report on his Invercargill meeting at Stuff

He hacked Nasa “because I wanted to know if aliens really exist”. He hacked a bank “because I wanted to donate $20 million to Greenpeace because I really like what they are doing”. He also hacked to bring the German prime minister’s credit rating down to zero “because I didn’t like the guy”.

Being at their campaign launch is significant, where Dotcom was prominent –  ‘Super hero’ Dotcom kicks off campaign. And I think the direct connection with not liking our Prime Minister is different.

So Dotcom seems to have accidentally or deliberately linked his hacking nineteen years ago to the current hacking.

A comment at Kiwiblog on Corkery’s response:

Her ‘tirade’ still helped Internet Mana get headline news – so at election time how is this a bad thing?

And this at Public Address:

The outburst by Pam Corkery acheived the objective of getting the National Party launch out of the top spot on the news. I’ve been wondering whether it was a deliberate spoiling tactic. Or maybe all that happened was that Mr Dotcom or some other seniopr person in IMP asked Ms Corkery to go outside and distract the press so that he could make a getaway, and the rest was unscripted, but very very effective at getting the top spot on both TVNZ and TV3 news.

While it’s possible Corkery deliberately went off at the media (I doubt it) why would she deliberately want to highlight that particular issue?

That wouldn’t seem to be very smart. Surely it would be one of the last things Corkery would want to attract media attention to.

It could have been a slip by Dotcom. And it could have been over-reaction from Corkery because it is closer to the mark than Dotcom has usually admitted.

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