Two contrasting polls

One News Colmar poll:

National 43 (-6)
Labour 36 (+3)
Green 13 (+2)
NZ First 3 (-1)
Conservative 2 (+1)
Maori Party 1
United Future 1 (+1)

This is similar to the recent Roy Morgan poll.

3 News Reid Research goes against the trend in stark contrast:

National 49
Labour 30
Green 13
NZ First 3
Conservative 2
Maori party 1

Confidence in both Key and Shearer down a bit.

Contrasting result confusion may be an appropriate result- the polls were taken before the NZ Power announcement so the political climate may have changed somewhat and are now largely irrelevant.

TV3, ACT, and make believe news

On the night of the ACT Party conference 3 News ran an item by Brook Sabin highlighting Rodney Hide talking about hate, the poor, Maori, and unions.

They think you must have horns, and hate the poor, and hate the Maori, and hate the unions – well, that’s true.

My initial reaction was surprise that Hide would say that, and the conference MC Jim Hopkins was obviously also surprised, as he asked Hide if he would revisit his comments.

3 News showed Hide saying “No!” and then cut. But that wasn’t the whole story.

There were subsequent blog discussions (I saw them at Kiwiblog and The Standard), some condemning Hide based on the 3 News item, some defending him.

Ex ACT MP David Garrett was a vigorous defender, he had attended the conference and witnessed all of Hide’s whole speech and the follow-up to Hopkins’ invitation to revisit. Garrett has since reiterated his opinion:

I knew – as did Hopkins – as soon as the quip didn’t go right that that is what would be the soundbite on the the News…as it was. Hopkins invited Rodney back to “have another go at it”..Rodney did so, in considerably more detail, about the media generated perceptions of ACT. None of that of course made the news.

This raised questions and I became further suspicious when I saw that no other

I have also talked in person to John Boscawen and others from ACT who attended the conference who were disappointed with the 3 News item.

I advised 3 News chief political reporter Patrick Gower of Garrett’s version and asked:

Is there any longer recorded versions of what Hide said (before and after what was shown) and after Hide’s “No” to Hopkins asking if he would revisit it?

Can you add anything to your side of the story?

I haven’t had a response yet.

I also asked Rodney Hide to explain what he meant and what actually happened. He has responded:

I spoke off-the-cuff and don’t have a verbatim memory of the context but I do of the controversial sentence because my friend Jim Hopkins who was MC drew my attention to how it could get misconstrued as “gold” by the news media.

The context was how ACT and ACT people get misrepresented in the media.  And I gave examples.

The specific sentence was how we are supposed to hate all these groups which I listed — poor people, maori, unions, I then paused for dramatic effect, and said something to the effect well it was true that we disliked unions and gave the example of the practices of the teacher unions.

I described in particular how teacher unions were holding back maori and poor people. Anyone familiar with my history and recent columns would know that has long been a theme of mine.

After my speech. Jim Hopkins said that the specific sentence could be misconstrued and would I clarify which I immediately did.

I took some time and care in doing so.

Either then — or in the speech — I also gave the specific example of some years back a drunken print journalist and subsequent TV3 political editor accosting me at a party as to why ACT hated Maori so much.

I was nonplussed.  I asked how they could ever think such a thing.  They said because ACT didn’t want Maori Doctors.  I said I wasn’t aware of anyone in ACT making such a statement. 

They then explained ACT is against a Maori quota for medical school.  I hadn’t realised until then that anyone could be so stupid — or indeed so racist — as to think that the only way Maori could succeed was through quotas and that the ACT party in calling for one law for all could be concluded by the news media as not wanting Maori doctors. 

I gave examples where that hadn’t been necessary and pointed out that Sir Peter Tapsell was an ACT supporter! 

I explained that ACT felt the problem was one of lifting educational attainment, rather than dropping the entry bar for ethnicity.  That was all back in about 1997 and was all to little effect.

I explained all that to the audience to give an indication for how tough it is For John Banks with the media in this country.

I didn’t want to be reported because I knew John Banks was to speak in the afternoon.  I prefer now to stay out of the media.   I clearly failed in that because my words could be used to make the exact opposite point to the one that I was making about ACT but precisely the point I was making about the news media.

This all directly contradicts the news item as shown on 3 News, which was also very negative about ACT’s chances of surviving – their online report is titled Act Party struggles to avoid political oblivion. It focussed on Hide’s comments (seemingly misleadingly edited) and made weird references to livestock and artworks.

Hide is no longer an active participant in ACT’s operation or it’s rebuildingt. Over halfway through the item John Banks was given some coverage, but it did not show ACT’s chief rebuilder John Boscawen at all.

Sabin closed the item with:

…today it was hard to tell what was real, and what was make believe.

That could describe Sabin’s news item.

I would be surprised (and very concerned) if this was a deliberate attempt to misrepresent what Hide said.

My guess is that Sabin took his own meaning and built a story around it, something that is common in media coverage. In this case Sabin seems to have been totally wrong.

This  deserves an explanation from Sabin and/or 3 News, or at least an acknowledgment that in this item they got it totally wrong.

Otherwise it leaves me wondering what news we should believe.

Hide biting the hand that Act needs to feed it publicity

Rodney Hide attacked 3 News at the Act party conference, calling them bastards – see Rodney Hide’s ‘hate’ speech.

How smart is that?

ACT leaders in private fund probe

A judge will decide whether ACT leader John Banks and his predecessor Don Brash will face charges over allegations they misled investors in company prospectuses.

That prosecution is continuing through the courts.

This isn’t new news, it could be seen as timed payback. Fighting with media may get immediate attention but it’s not always the sort of attention that will help your party.

It’s biting the hand that Act needs to feed it publicity, and votes.

A teacher’s view on hungry kids

On a 3 News blog by Lachlan Forsyth – A poverty of ideas:

Annie G  commented:

It really concerns me I am a teacher of 37 years working in a decile 1 school and I know that much of this comes from inadequate ignorant parenting.

Whilst I agree kids with empty bellies are bad news I am concerned that feeding them at school at an added cost to the tax payer is breeding yet another generation of needy unable to cope and support a family people.

I used to run a food supply at my school during a prolonged freezing work strike. It ended because I knew parents were using it as an easy option.

We need to put money in to:

  1. Getting parents out of bed in the morning to feed their kids.
  2. Teaching parents that a baked potato for example is better than noodles or expensive cereal.
  3. To leave food for the kids set up on the table if they cant be there in the morning due to working hours / whatever.
  4. Feeding the kids is NOT the responsibility of the tax payer.
  5. Money for drugs and alcohol is NOT a priority.
  6. Bring back basic cooking and budgeting lessons. Not the “technology type of clap trap taught today.

Surely some of the money Iwi have received in Treaty settlement could go towards educating the parents and feeding the kids.

Sadly many sympathetic New Zealandrs who think feeding kids at school is the way to deal with this issue have had no experience of the inadequacy of many of our kids parents. Some parents need to think about where when and how they spend their benefit $$

I know of many low income wage earning kiwis who struggle to feed their kids but they manage as they think about where the priorities lie.

John Key travels whilst NZ falls deeper in to the mire of poverty and lack of vision.

Vicki responds:

Annie G you are wrong, there isn’t enough money on a low wage or benefit to pay housing, power and then food on top. The typical low income or benefit covers housing, power, petrol ..there is nothing left after that for food.

Also the majority of beneficaries are only short term, long term benefit use is a small minority….you seem to be prejudice against certain people, but the fact is, working or not food and housing is so insanely expensive something has to be done to help these kids.

And Katrina respionds to that:

Vicki I don’t think Annie G is being prejudice, she sounds like she knows what she is talking about after having been at the coal face.

Anyone in a school environment on a regular basis sees the variety of parents within a school. Some are genuine people who have fallen on temporary hard times and some parents really are of a different mentality where they expect everyone else to do everything.

We see this different attitude in schools that are a higher decile as well the attitude is the same just the bank balance is different.

Granny Herald – drama queen?

John Key had a chat on radio yesterday, referring to the media as “more aggressive and hostileand the NZ Herald as “tabloid”.

The ODT reported on this in a relatively factual and balanced way.

Media ‘hostile’, but no problems: Key

The Prime Minister says he doesn’t have a problem with the media, despite his comments today that the press had become more hostile towards his Government in its second term.

Here’s the interview audio:  Speaking on Newstalk ZB this morning (play audio from 3m 01 sec),

The NZ Herald headlined and followed up the story differently:

John Key takes aim at media

Key backs off comments on ‘Herald’ in media gripe

Key denies slamming NZ media

John Key Prime Minister John Key yesterday reined back claims after singling out the Herald in an attack…

I don’t think he backed off, he reminded the media what he actually said. And other media:

Stuff: Key bemoans ‘hostile’ media

TVNZ: Key told to harden up after media moan

3News NZ: Key: Media ‘aggressive and hostile’ toward Govt

And it hasn’t escaped the blogs either:

The Standard: Better late than never – joining their Cry Wolf Club?

…so naturally Key is looking for someone to blame.

Many pundits link the mood change in the media to Key’s attack on various outlets over the teapot tape…

Except that Key said it’s a normal mood.

Kiwiblog not surprisingly had a different take on it: A perfect example

And the headline: Key bemoans ‘hostile’ media Really proves the point.

A strong media that reports on and examines the actions of politicians is a vital part of our democracy. They help hold parliament and politicians to account.

But media also have a responsibility to be accurate and fair. Unfortunately modern media has tended too much towards over dramatisation and attention seeking.

And the way they overreact to having a small amount of spotlight shone on them is curious.

Media needs to be accountable to, and the same as for politicians, media excesses need to be shown up for what they are.

How strong is asset sale opposition?

There’s little doubt there’s a lot of opposition to the proposed asset sales (Mixed Ownership Model). How strong is the opposition?

A recent 3 News Reid Research poll shows New Zealanders remain opposed to the Government’s planned asset sales.

The poll asked 1000 voters whether they agreed with the partial privatisations.

  • 62% disagreed
  • 35% agreed
  • 3.5% unsure

What is not apparent is how strong that opposition is. Obviously it wasn’t strong enough to reduce National’s vote at the last election (numbers increased slightly, the % was the highest recorded under MMP).

Labour used anti asset sales as it’s main election plank, and that wasn’t successful for them.

The Green Party has been against them too (they are anti a lot of things) but had then sense to concentrate their election campaign on more positive things, more jobs, reducing poverty and cleaning up water.

The Mana Party are strongly against, they were  involved in organising the recent hikoi against asset sales – but this was only modestly supported and lacked focus with many other things being included in the protest.

Long time commentator for the left Chris Trotter thought that the hikoi was not only unsuccessful, but it could be counter-productive:

A “Pessimistic Reformist” Considers The “Aotearoa Is Not For Sale” Demonstration.

Unfortunately, my own cold, hard analysis of the facts of last Saturday’s Aotearoa Is Not For Sale demonstration has led me to the very upsetting (and no doubt highly unpopular) conclusion that, if it was intended to demonstrate to the Government that its “partial” privatisation plans have generated the same level of public opposition as its earlier proposals to permit mining on New Zealand’s conservation estate, then it failed.

Many of the people I spoke to on the anti-privatisation march realised that there were “not enough” people to give the National-led Government pause, but added cheerily “still, it’s better than nothing”. Not necessarily. I would argue that Saturday’s march was, in fact, worse than nothing. By providing the Government with a vivid glimpse of its most vociferous opponents, and revealing just how few of them there really are (even in the country’s most populous city) the organisers of the anti-privatisation march have told the Government that it can now proceed without serious political risk.

It’s easy to see where the parties stand on MOM, but what do the wider public really think? Outside political forums there doesn’t seem to be a lot of protest, does that mean most of the opposition is quite mild?

Facebook is hardly brimming with opposition:

Someone has tried an online petition without much success:

Here’s another one:

I found these when trying to find the main petition, maybe it’s a bit too soon to find that easily. The wording has just been approved by the clerk of the house:

The agreed wording isDo you support the Government selling up to 49 per cent of Meridian Energy, Mighty River Power, Genesis Power, Solid Energy and Air New Zealand?

I guess we’ll hear more about this, but I think they have made a serious mistake with the wording, if you sign that you are agreeing with asset sales?

I’ve talked to someone who has always voted left and has always been against asset sales generally, but who just said:

But we’ve got to do something to get the country out of the shit!

They would poll against asset sales but with reservations.

So how strong is MOM opposition outside the political parties?

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