More bad poll news for Labour

The July Fairfax/IPSOS is out this morning and while it has a slight improvement for Labour they are only up to 24.9%.

There are some variations to the Roy Morgan moll that came out yesterday.

  • National 54.8% (down 1.7, Roy Morgan 51)
  • Labour 24.9% (up 1.7, Roy Morgan 23.5)
  • Greens 12.4% (up 0.5, Roy Morgan 15.0)
  • NZ First 2.6% (down 0.6, Roy Morgan 6.0)
  • Conservative 1.3% (up 0.4, Roy Morgan 1.0)
  • Mana 1.2% (no change, Roy Morgan Internet-Mana 1.5)
  • Maori Party 0.9% (up 0.2, Roy Morgan 1.0)
  • United Future 0.2% (up 0.2, Roy Morgan 0.5)
  • ACT 0.1% (down 0.6, Roy Morgan 0.5)

Tracey Watkins comments on the poll in Could National lose the unloseable?

The number of National voters contacted by our pollsters has not markedly changed since our last poll in June – the real movement is among Labour-leaning voters, who appear to have become a highly volatile bunch at this point in the electoral cycle.

And in the Stuff poll report National holds on to huge lead:

Today’s poll, which follows Labour’s recent election-year congress and a series of targeted announcements on education policy, shows more decided voters, with Labour clearly benefiting from the change.

But 15.3 per cent of voters still don’t know who they will vote for.

Analysis of other polls has indicated similar patterns of stable support for National and volatile support for Labour. Much may depend on whether support firms up for Labour in the poll that matters or if it deserts them.

And much may also depend on late swings to small parties, which can be a lottery for opportunists. There’s a big difference in results for NZ First and a notable difference for Greens between these two polls.


Click here for full graphics.

Roy Morgan results.

Fairfax/IPSOS – National 56, Labour 23

A very grim Fairfax IPSOS poll result for Labour:

- National 56.5% (+8.9)
– Labour 23.2% (-6.2)
– Greens 11.9% (-0.8)
– NZ First 3.2% (-0.5)
– Mana 1.2% (+0/7)
– Conservative 0.9% (-0.7)
- Maori Party 0.7% (-1.2)
- Act 0.7% (-0.2)
– United Future 0% (-0.1)

Internet-MANA combined – 2.1%

This sort of extreme poll result would normally be expected to come back into line later but polling was complete before yesterday’s news on Cunliffe and Liu.

National won’t be expecting to stay that high through to the election but Labour will be getting very worried.

Fairfax/IPSOS poll demoralising for Labour

The May 2014 Fairfax/IPSOS poll must be demoralising for Labour. Theoretically National should be suffering but they have only dropped a little to 47.6% but Labour have dropped 2.3 to 29.5% in a continung trend downwards.

  • National 47.6% (-1.8)
  • Labour 29.5% (-2.3)
  • Greens 12.7% (+2.7)
  • NZ First 3.7% (+0.1)
  • Maori Party 1.9% (+0.8)
  • Conservative Party 1.6% (-0.4)
  • ACT Party 0.9% (+0.3)
  • Mana Party 0.5% (+0.2)
  • United Future 0.1% (no change)

Labour should also be concerned about David Cunliffe’s drop in Preferred Prime Minister:

  • John Key 48.6% (-1.0)
  • David Cunliffe 13.4% (-3.9)
  • Winston Peters 3.4% (+0.6)
  • Russel Norman 1.8% (+0.2)
  • Metiria Turei 0.3% (-0.8)

The poll was conducted between May 10 and May 12, surveying 1011 people by telephone. It has a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3 per cent. Percentages are based on the 826 decided voters who intend to vote. Those who are undecided or do not intend to vote are excluded.

Fairfax IPSOS Party poll results

Stuff: National-has-no-need-to-pull-rabbits-out-of-hat

Mixed poll responses on replacing the NZ flag

Fairfax/IPSOS included a question on replacing the New Zealand flag in their poll released over the weekend.

  • Don’t want change – 38.6%
  • Replace with Silver Fern – 18%
  • Replace with something else – 23.7%
  • Not bothered either way – 19%

Stuff report in Low support for keeping flag:

Surprisingly, the poll shows the strongest support for the current flag from those aged under 30 (47.2 per cent). The mood for a change was highest in the 45-64 age bracket.

That age preference curious. Will we get the choice? That’s only a maybe.

Key said the result was a strong starting point, with a narrow majority even before a campaign had begun. “My instinct would be that more coverage would more strongly make the case for change. I take a lot of heart from the poll.”

Most political leaders have supported a debate about the flag and Governor-General Sir Jerry Mateparae also said it was time to look at choosing a fresh flag.

Cabinet is expected to decide soon on whether to go ahead with a referendum on the flag; a possible two-step process that would gauge the mood for change and then pick a favourite in a run-off.

“Whether we push the go button and how it works are the things we are talking about,” Key said.

One thing potentially against change is that many of those favouring a change of flag don’t see it as a high priority issue, while a minority will always be against any change. Uncluding…

The RSA has been among the most vigorous defenders of the status quo.

When a change was mooted its president, Don McIver, said a large majority of his members would not want a change. “It has a significant emotional hold on our membership.”

That is despite the silver fern being a significant symbol of our military for over a hundred years – see Silver fern is NZ history. and Silver fern emblem used in Boer War.

While the silver fern is New Zealand’s most identifying emblem some people aren’t happy having a black flag, and many would like to see the Southern Cross stars retained. One of the most popular alternatives mixes most features that people want is the Kyle Lockwood design:

Kyle Lockwood flag

Fairfax exclude small parties from poll results

Fairfax released their latest IPSOS poll on Saturday. How did the small parties fare? It’s been difficult to find out.

If you go to Stuff’s See the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll you’ll find detailed breakdowns of support for National, Labour, Greens and NZ First, but nothing at all for other parties (apart from a mention in the projected make up of Parliament.

I did manage to find a mention of all parties in a non-Fairfax report, so they must have shared the results.

So I’ve included all parties here: Fairfax/IPSOS poll good for National.

But in what appears to be the main Stuff coverage of the poll – National on wave of optimism – poll – the Conservative and Internet Parties get a mention (neither are currently in Parliament and the Internet Party isn’t official yet and Kim DotCom has promised to self-destruct it if as expected it fails to poll above 5%) . But there is nothing for Maori Party, Mana Party, ACT and UnitedFuture.

I tweeted my disappointment on the exclusion of over have the parties:

@dpfdpf @tracy_watkins @avancenz @VernonSmall @michaelfoxnz Very poor not publishing full party results.

One of them responded:

Not poor. Party vote breakdown in the paper and on Stuff. Where were you looking?

I didn’t see the print version, but I’ve searched Stuff and can’t find it. I asked Tracey:

I’ve looked on Stuff in all the references to the poll I can find. Can you give me a link?

I didn’t get a reply to that.

The small parties don’t get much support in polls, including this one, and this won’t be helped when major media exclude them. The Fairfax poll coverage favours the large parties and larger small parties.

UPDATE: an Australian tweet with a link to an Australian news site has the full results.

Roy Morgan@roymorganonline

NZ PM’s National could govern alone: poll  via @newscomauHQ


Fairfax/IPSOS poll good for National

The latest Fairfax/IPSOS poll has National soaring on 49.4% and both Labour and Greens struggling to make an impression.

  • National 49.4% (down 0.8%)
  • Labour 31.8% (down 1.8)
  • Greens 10.0 (down 0.7)
  • NZ First 3.6% (up 1.3)
  • Conservatives 2.0% (up 1.3)
  • Maori Party 1.1% (up 0.4)
  • ACT 0.5%
  • Mana 0.3%
  • UnitedFuture 0%
  • Internet Party 0%

The polling period was up until Monday (February 8-10) does not cover all the Dotcom coverage this week.

This week Greens and NZ First may have taken a hit with the continuing Dotcom saga and Cunliffe has been missing in action again but Labour may have been rescued a bit by Shane Jones.

Other results:

  • 63.7% think the country is on the right track, 35.6% think it is on the wrong track
  • 48.4 per cent supported the $60 a week payment (baby bonus) while 48.1 per cent were opposed.
  • 67.2 per cent opposed and only 27.2 per cent in favour of raising taxes to fund new initiatives.

Related coverage:

  • National on wave of optimism – poll
    The strong result for National comes against a backdrop of improving economic data, including a strong growth outlook of more than 3.5 per cent this year, a rise in confidence levels and a fall in unemployment to 6 per cent.
  • Poll shows Labour under pressure to make impact
    Labour will spend the weekend licking its wounds. With an election now just months away – most are betting on late September or early October – the party is squeezed for time to turn things around
  • Baby bonus divides voters
    Voters are sharply divided over Labour’s $60 a week baby bonus and the keynote policy from  leader David Cunliffe’s state of the nation speech has failed to lift the party’s fortunes, according to a new Fairfax Media-Ipsos poll.

* The phone poll surveyed  1018 people from February 8-10 and has a margin of error of 3 per cent.

Full results in an Australian news report.

Three polls

Three polls – Fairfax and One News taken over identical periods (19 – 23 October) and Roy Morgan over a much longer time (14 – 27 October).

Fairfax/IPSOS One News/Colmar Roy Morgan
National 50.2 45 42
Labour 33.6 34 35.5
Green Party 10.7 13 11
NZ First 2.3 3.9 4.5
Conservative 0.7 1.6 2.5
Maori Party 0.7 1.4 1.5
Mana 0.7 0.3 0.5
ACT 0.1 0.5 1.0
United Future 0.1 0.1 0.5
Other 0.9 0.0 1.0


Period: 19 – 23 October
Sample size: 1030
Margin of error: +/- 3.1%
Don’t know or don’t intend to vote: 21.9%
Question: “Which way would you vote if an election were held today?”


Period: 19 – 23 October
Sample size: 1014
Margin of error: ± 3.1% – points at the 95% confidence level.
Undecided: 11%
Question: “If a general election was held today, how likely would you be to vote?”
NOTE: Those claiming they would be ‘quite likely’ or ‘very likely’ to vote have been included in the party support analysis.

Roy Morgan

Period: 14 – 27 October
Sample size: 847
Margin of error: not given but > 3.2%
Undecided: 3.5%
Question: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

Two polls, similar and different

Today two polls were published, Fairfax/IPSOS and OneNews/Colmar. Some results are quite similar, some are notably different, especially for National (50 and 45). Other differences are within the margins of error.

Fairfax/IPSOS OneNews/Colmar
National 50.2 45
Labour 33.6 34
Green Party 10.7 13
NZ First 2.3 3.9
Conservative 0.7 1.6
Maori Party 0.7 1.4
Mana 0.7 0.3
ACT 0.1 0.5
United Future 0.1 0.1
Other 0.9 0.0

Particularly being a year out from the election these polls are indicative of current party support only and vary from poll to poll and between polls.


Period: 19 – 23 October
Sample size: 1030
Margin of error: +/- 3.1%
Don’t know or don’t intend to vote: 21.9%
Question: “Which way would you vote if an election were held today?”


Period: 19 – 23 October
Sample size: 1014
Margin of error: ± 3.1% – points at the 95% confidence level.
Undecided: 11%
Question: “If a general election was held today, how likely would you be to vote?”
NOTE: Those claiming they would be ‘quite likely’ or ‘very likely’ to vote have been included in the party support analysis.

Good National poll, disappointment for others

The latest Fairfax Media-Ipsos poll is good for National and will be disappointing for many in Labour and other parties.

  • National 50.2% (up 1.9)
  • Labour 33.6% (up 2.0)
  • Green Party 10.7% (down 1.6%)
  • NZ First 2.3% (down 0.5)
  • Conservative Party 0.7% (down 0.7)
  • Maori Party 0.7% (down 0.7)
  • Mana 0.7% (up 0.2%)
  • Act 0.1% (down 0.1)
  • United Future 0.1% (n/c)
  • Other 0.9% (down 0.9)

The last poll was in August, before Labour’s leadership change. This result now David Cunliffe has settled in as Labour leader is not much different to when Labour was struggling with David Shearer. This poll suggests Labour’s big surge was temporary.

A lack of progress may disappoint Greens as well.

NZ First are well below the 5% they need to survive but they tend to fluctuate depending on what attention Winston Peters is getting.

Conservatives have got a long way to go to make 5% and they have gone in the wrong direction in this poll.

Other small party changes are insignificant.


GCSB poll – 53.6% trust Government, 75.3% worried

A proper poll (by Fairfax/IPSOS) on the GCSB bill has mixed results. Reported on Stuff: Kiwis do care, prime minister - the results aren’t shown clearly in the article but here are the key points:

  • 53.6% said they trusted the Government to protect their right to privacy whilst maintaining national security.
  • Almost 40% disagreed.
  • 75.3% of respondents are on some level worried about plans to allow the Government Communications Security Bureau to monitor New Zealanders.
  • Almost 30% of those polled said they were “very concerned” about a law change that would allow the GCSB to intercept New Zealanders’ communications, not just foreign ones
  • Just under 25% were not at all concerned.

This contrasts significantly with the Campbell Live promoted self selecting poll – see Campbell’s GCSB poll – too important.

These results don’t surprise me despite a major attempt to shock people into opposing the bill.

I mostly trust the Government on this but have some worries.

It’s worth emphasising that I would also have worries if the bill was thrown out, and I would have worries no matter how the bill might be changed. In the right climate politicians can use any law creatively, but incompetence is our biggest danger.


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