The July Fairfax/IPSOS is out this morning and while it has a slight improvement for Labour they are only up to 24.9%.
There are some variations to the Roy Morgan moll that came out yesterday.
- National 54.8% (down 1.7, Roy Morgan 51)
- Labour 24.9% (up 1.7, Roy Morgan 23.5)
- Greens 12.4% (up 0.5, Roy Morgan 15.0)
- NZ First 2.6% (down 0.6, Roy Morgan 6.0)
- Conservative 1.3% (up 0.4, Roy Morgan 1.0)
- Mana 1.2% (no change, Roy Morgan Internet-Mana 1.5)
- Maori Party 0.9% (up 0.2, Roy Morgan 1.0)
- United Future 0.2% (up 0.2, Roy Morgan 0.5)
- ACT 0.1% (down 0.6, Roy Morgan 0.5)
Tracey Watkins comments on the poll in Could National lose the unloseable?
The number of National voters contacted by our pollsters has not markedly changed since our last poll in June – the real movement is among Labour-leaning voters, who appear to have become a highly volatile bunch at this point in the electoral cycle.
And in the Stuff poll report National holds on to huge lead:
Today’s poll, which follows Labour’s recent election-year congress and a series of targeted announcements on education policy, shows more decided voters, with Labour clearly benefiting from the change.
But 15.3 per cent of voters still don’t know who they will vote for.
Analysis of other polls has indicated similar patterns of stable support for National and volatile support for Labour. Much may depend on whether support firms up for Labour in the poll that matters or if it deserts them.
And much may also depend on late swings to small parties, which can be a lottery for opportunists. There’s a big difference in results for NZ First and a notable difference for Greens between these two polls.
Click here for full graphics.