Labour forever dependent on Greens?

Labour have taken another step towards Green dependence by joining them on power policy. Since the retreat in Labour support at the 2011 election it seems to go without question that the Greens are essential to Labour if they are to form the next government.

‘FAMBO’ commented at The Daily Blog:

All political analysis and predictions has to take one fact into account. Labour will never, ever be in government without the Greens again. The Greens have taken too many Labour votes for good.

This looks to be the case for next year’s election but it’s too difficult to predict further into the future. For example there’s a very real possibility that a Green dominated coalition Government would backlash and reverse the Green support if they implement radical policies.

And FAMBO is making the same mistake some Clare Curran made – Greens don’t own their votes, they are very temporary lent to them by voters, until the next election. 

If Labour thinks it can be National Lite and be in a coalition with the Greens it is dreaming. The Greens will compromise to some degree but never on core issues. That’s not the culture of the party.

Certainly Labour would have to compromise significantly if they form a coalition that is one third Green. But the Greens will also have to bite the bullet of MMP reality and compromise as well, or they will not be able to work in a coalition.

Hence Labour has not choice but to move back to the left a bit more, or National will be in power for pretty much the foreseeable future. It may, unfortunately, take another lost election before Labour finally recognises fact, and in the process removes for good its old guard.

The Greens will force Labour left, as they have done with the power policies – but that will make it easier for National to stay in power. Voters remain very wary of what the sum of Labour+Green will be.

Removing Labour’s old guard is a separate issue, it’s something that has to happen to revive the party.

The time for sitting in the middle is over. The middle ground doesn’t exist any more.

That’s wrong, elections are fought,  and won and lost, in the middle ground. National have dominated in the centre in the last two elections.

Some from Labour dream that the 1 million people who don’t vote are all on the left, so Labour just need to move left and inspire the non-voters to turn out and vote for them.

But Labour are taking a huge risk. They clearly see the Greens as an essential for their chances in the next election. Instead of resolving to rebuild Labour to compete head to head with National as two major parties they have made a decision to accept being sub-National in size and rely on the Greens to make up the numbers they need.

The obvious problem is how much the Greens may affect Labour’s credibility as a Government-in-waiting, especially their credibility on being reliable managers of the economy.

Labour on their own have problems with economic credibility. John Armstrong says in his Saturday column:

This is part of National’s strategy to make next year’s election a referendum on which party can best be trusted with the management of the economy – a matter of some issue where both parties’ private polling has Labour far behind National.

Labour on it’s own is “far behind National”. Labour plus Greens will be seen as an even greater risk to the economy.

It’s possible that National will lose sufficient support (and support parties) so that Labour+Greens get to form the next government. But if that happens it’s likely to be despite their economic credibility.

And if a Labour+Green government goes too far left with the policies they implement Labour will be as tainted as Greens.

It’s quite possible that Labour+Greens win the next election. That would be the furthest left government for a long time.

Of course it could be a popular and successful government – but it will spend more, tax more and borrow more. Much will depend on the public appetite for adding to rather than pegging back the deficits and substantial borrowing increases  we have seen over recent years.

And of course if Labour+Green form the next government they will be inextricably linked for the duration of that government, and if re-elected on 2017 they will almost certainly still be interdependent.

But if they form the next government and go too far left, and spend, tax and borrow too much, and get turfed out, it’s anyone’s guess as to how the Labour and Green numbers end up.

And that’s presuming they last a whole term successfully – Labour’s arrogance and Green’s determination to stick to their core principles may prove unworkable in practice.

Labour and Greens have signalled they are inextricably linked until the election next year.

But there’s no certainty that their alliance will succeed, nor that it will last.

There is no forever in politics.

Time-bomb warning to the Government

A timely “time-bomb” warning to the Government:

WHEN ‘CUT THROUGH’ BECOMES ‘SHORT CUT’

This government prides itself on a business like approach to issues. It likes to cut through quickly and resolve issues before they get too bogged down in red tape. For many New Zealanders, this pragmatism is welcome, coming after years of stultification and wariness under successive previous governments.

A lot of this change is due to the attitude and style of the Prime Minister, who is focused on achieving things and making a difference. In general, it is an approach which has worked well and probably explains in part at least why the government remains so popular in its fifth year in office.

But, as a couple of recent examples show, there is a danger that the cut through which has been one of the government’s hallmarks will become a major problem for it.

Take the case of the Sky City Convention Centre proposal. There is no doubt Auckland needs a world class convention centre, and that in all probability, Sky City is arguably in the best position to develop such a facility. No problem with that, subject, of course, to the specifics of the deal stacking up. But as the Auditor-General’s report shows, while there has been no impropriety in the process followed by the government, it did play very fast and loose at times.

Similarly, with the Hobbit movies. No-one seriously opposed making the movies here, and the government would have been roundly criticised if let the opportunity slip through its fingers, but as the various documents recently released show, the government’s enthusiasm for the movies being made here did get in the way of the facts from time to time as deals were struck to ensure the right outcome.

There is a time-bomb warning to the government here. Support for the cut through approach will wither if it is seen to be a standard proxy for bending the rules or doing special deals to achieve the desired outcome. While the government is not immediately vulnerable on this issue, the clock has started ticking.

And it is worth remembering the adage, the ends do not justify the means.

I’ve often seen critics of the left claiming they can have an ideological arrogance and think that the certainty that they are right justifies achieving by any means possible.

It’s fair to aim the same criticism at National in these examples. They should heed this warning.

(It’s easy to follow and find out where the quoted blog comes from, I deliberately left the identity out of this post because I think the comment makes an important regardless of who would have said it).

Government spoon fed

Holding to account, or heaves of destruction?

Everyone will probably agree that we need to hold our MPs to account. This results in a sometimes extreme levels of scrutiny – to an extent that’s the just nature of the beast. Everyone standing for parliament should be aware of the exposure they are risking.

One of the key jobs of the opposition parties is to hold the Government to account, to carefully examine their policies, procedures and personnel. Some opposition MPs do this more than others, and some parties do it more than others. For example Trevor Mallard operates quite differently to, say, David Shearer, and NZ First operates quite differently to the Green Party.

When MPs, the media and bloggers get into frenzies of attack it ain’t pretty. There’s a line somewhere between holding to account and trying to destroy people, careers and Government, to bring them down and make a mess of them. That line is crossed ofdten and by a long way.

The current ACC/Pullar seems to be bringing out the worst in parties, broadcast and print media and online, as did Carter, Wong, Hughes, Heatley, cafe meetings, paintings and speeding calvalcades.

To MPs and party operators this is the game. It’s a winners take all, stuff the consequences game of attack and attrition, always with the hope that winning each battle will led to winning the next war.

“Winning” means getting into the supreme position of power. The wider consequences and collateral damage (damage to democracy and damage to people) are just road kill on the highway to hell.

The wider public – those whose heads aren’t buried in sands of apathy – are often aghast at the leaders of our country acting more like drunk in an alley scufflers than example setters.

Another analogy – instead of a sporting game with strong but fair tackles our politics often descends into what appears more like foot tripping, repeat attempted spear tackles, and bottom of the ruck boots in the hewad, eye gouging and biting off noses in spite.

And what happens when a dissillusioned spectator points this out? I tried this yesterday at The Standard.

I don’t think it’s “great fun to watch”.

Parliament is supposd to be the cream of democracy running the country. I think it’s very sad to see how so many keep trying to push as many others onto the track as possible in the hope they will cause a train wreck. Too bad about the good of the country.

It’s a real shame when the dirty deeds of politics take precedence (and sadly pride of place for some) over decent governance.

Some of the reactions were not unexpected. Like:

felix:
Of course you don’t like it, they’re on your team. Your nasty, dirty, toxic team.
The more of you that push each other onto the tracks, the better.

Colonial Viper:
PG is all for civilised government, civilised politics and civil politicians!!!
PG can you point to a time that actually happened? Nixon’s day? Napolean’s day? Caesar’s day?

muzza:
You really are deluded, was that a lame attempt to fluff your boss? Look at the state of those who crave the control of others, they are pushed into the postions they are in, and do not deserve to be there. Until NZ’ers redress this, then it can only decline further, and that is a very ugly thought!

Pascal’s bookie
Parliament is supposd to be the cream of democracy running the country.
sez who?
So when and where has such a decent democracy and country existed?
Who gets to decide who the cream is?
Sounds more like romantic idealised notions of aristocracy than democracy to me.

More “it’s just how it is so just accept  it”. And Jackal highlights a major part of the problem:

Any damage to the political system is entirely the fault of those abusing our democracy for their own ends.

If you truly believe in a decent democracy Pete George, you would not support the current government who have proven themselves unworthy of their positions. It’s obvious that they don’t have the best interest of our country and it’s people as a priority. They are in fact self serving narcissistic back stabbing capitalist running dogs… creaming our so-called democracy for their own benefit.

National have no comprehension of what morals, honour and accountability stand for… it’s a vague notion that does not register in their befuddled and bigoted minds. To quote Nick Smith, they should do us all a favour by throwing themselves under a train.

Muzza is absolutely correct when he/she says New Zealander’s must address the problem… and presently the National led government is the problem.

Ironic – if I believed in decent democracy I shouldn’t support our democratically elected government?

A major part of the problem is that some in politics – people and parties – seem to believe that the other lot are all bad and regardless of votes should never be in power, and that they are the only ones who can lead the current and do the right things.

That’s extreme political arrogance. Add to that a mindset that any tactic, any nastiness, any destructiveness of careers or parties is justifed because they think they should hold supreme power. They think they deserve to dictate and won’t accept any alternatives.

Yes, it is up to New Zealanders to address the problem. Decent reasonable politicians like Pita Sharples, Peter Dunne and David Shearer who lead better examples and call for better get shouted out by the old school bullies.

So if New Zealanders want better from our politicians than we need to insist that they deliver better. Not Jackal extremism. Decent respectful inclusive democracy and leadership. Some things deserve strong challenges and insistence on accountability for sure.

For that happen the political heavies, the thugs and bullies, need to be called to account. They’ll resist and throw abuse and try and shout down any threat to their alley tactics and to their patch of alley. They only know attack as a means of defence.

The political heaves of destruction need to be given the heave ho. Then people will feel like it’s their democracy and their parliament, not an endless playground spat.

United Future protects against Peters/Brash/Banks

The reality of the election has become clear. If you don’t want National to rule on their own there are obvious choices. Two of those choices are worrisome, one is safe.

  • If you don’t want Brash and Banks holding the balance of power and pulling National right vote United Future.
  • If you don’t want Parliament and the country being held to ransom by Winston Peters vote United Future.
  • If you do want the continuation of a steady reliable government in precarious economic times vote United Future.

And wait, there’s more.

  • If you want sensible policies vote United Future.
  • If you like a family friendly party vote United Future.
  • If you value continued access to the great Kiwi outdoors vote United Future.

The media likes drama and division. United Future demonstrates common sense and working together.

It’s a no nonsense no brainer – vote UnitedFuture.

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