I’ll use the name ‘Whale Oil’ at times here because it’s difficult (or maybe not) to know who has written posts under the name ‘Cameron Slater’.
Since the publication of Dirty Politics, the demotion of Judith Collins and the isolation of Slater from John Key and most of the National caucus Whale Oil has adjusted it’s main agenda.
A number of times Whale Oil has pointed out that Prime Minister’s come and go but Whale Oil is in politics for the long game.
Now it looks like Whale Oil and it’s preferred MPs don’t have much influence or future under Key the best way of shortening the long game is to shorten Key’s tenure.
This could be achieved by helping force Key to resign. Otherwise it means accepting a Labour led government for a term and getting National back in with the right (and further right) MPs in positions of power, preferably as PM.
Over the past few months there have been many posts at Whale Oil that have criticised and tried to discredit the Key Government and anyone deemed loyal to Key, including Bill English and Steven Joyce.
The agenda seems to have kicked into another gear spinning off the Northland by-election debacle.
Whale Oil often tries the mass and persistent post approach like this cluster so far today:
The Queensland Premier is going to expel the wife-beating MP, even though that will threaten her razor-thin majority.
A totally different approach to the “Allegations? What allegations? I can’t heeeeaarrr you lalalalala” Key strategy on Sabin.
Northland was a disaster, one which Joyce, de Joux and Bennett have to own, and unfortunately some of that dung flying is going to splatter on the front of John Key’s shirt…he is the boss after all.
Note not just current enemies Key and Joyce but future competition Bennett.
But National will not gain another list MP to compensate for the loss following the shock resignation of Northland’s former MP Mike Sabin.
This is the result of Steve Joyce’s brilliant Northland strategy…and for some reason he is being protected.
MPs and Ministers have been sacked for less.
Caucus tomorrow will either be a slug-fest or Silence of the Lambs…if MPs sit there and take the excuses and don;t say anything then they have resigned themselves to a loss in 2017 and the demoralisation and rot really will have set in.
A party in good heart will have a big donnybrook, and some claret will get spilled and a solution found for the way forward. Anything else will show that National’s caucus are more like Pavlov’s dogs than anything else.
Trying to talk up “a slug-fest” and “a big donnybrook”, ironic after the weekend’s very one-sided and brief boxing bout.
This is the most significant political defeat Mr Key has ever faced. He’d warned his politicians last year not to succumb to third-term arrogance.
But that is what this looks like. National assumed it would have Northland in the bag so it put up a novice candidate.
It’s a tough lesson for the Government. It’ll be rubbed in on Tuesday when Parliament sits again.
Quite a theme developing, even on posts not immediately obviously on the same agenda..
John Key and Steve Joyce need to start showing something other than arrogance…or things are going to go from bad to worse really fast.
Like in a slug-fest in caucus tomorrow?
But this sort of complacency is bred by arrogance…and if they haven’t learned from the shellacking Winston Peters handed out to them on the weekend then there is more pain to come.
John Key is a fool if he thinks that he can be “philosophical” over the result. He can’t.
I share some of these views – but I’m not promoting a faction of National.
A “reader”? I wonder which reader.
Following Mike Sabin’s resignation for “personal reasons” an astute opposition would be asking John Key is he protecting any other MPs or Party office holders who have suppression orders over criminal acts?
There is no excuse for covering up criminal acts or even unconscionable ratbag behaviour, and John Key would have a huge problem if he has covered up any other offenders.
It’s not clear if this is promoting some new dirt or if it’s part of a long-running campaign against a certain party official that has clashed with the Slater dynasty.
Expect a barrage like this to continue, possibly for days, or weeks. Whale Oil tends more towards persisent than subtle.
Is this opportunist off the by-election debacle?
That’s where things get interesting. One of a number of National’s mistakes in the by-election was their choice of candidate. Many of asked how on earth they selected such an ill-suited person as Mark Osborne.
It almost looks like self-sabotage.
There was a sub-agenda running on Whale Oil during the selection process – a dirty personal campaign against one of the favoured candidates. Personal and very dirty in what is usually a no-go area in politics, involving the person’s family. The target ended up not being selected.
Curiously despite those pre-selection attacks Whale Oil chose to wait until after the by-election to dump on Osborne.
NOW THAT IT’S OVER, LET’S SPEAK THE TRUTH ABOUT MARK OSBORNE
Mark Orborne was, is and remains seriously out of his depth.
Sadly, you’re not up to it. You’ll go down in history as the man who took a 9300 majority and lost. Your political career lasted four weeks. As you’ve discovered, politics is brutal, and you are like a baby playing on the motorway
(That sounds like Slater talking). Why has he waited until afterwards to criticise an obviously ill-fated candidate? Maybe because he was happy to see Osborne stand?
Just after Osborne was selected he got a passing mention in SOME THOUGHTS ON WINSTON AND NORTHLAND:
TV3 commissioned this poll literally just hours after Mark Osborne had been selected for National. He is an unknown to the wider electorate.
Most of the post was talking down Winston’s chances, like “So will Winston win? Personally I don’t think so” and “Frankly Winston is past it.” But also:
Can Winston win? Of course he can…then watch the political blackmail start…and it won’t be for the benefit of Northlanders.
I presume Winston was the one suggested as a political blackmailer.
But perhaps that’s how Whale thinks about politics. And not necessarily be for the benefit of National.
And while I was putting together this post there’s another post at Whale Oil.
What is interesting is that there are complaints from inside caucus that they had to fund the campaign but they were not given any information about the polls.
They picked up information through back channels and this blog, but the campaign team decided against sharing them with the people who paid for them.
Having a centralised campaign team that taxes electorates to fund their campaign is ok as long as you keep winning.
When you lose a race you should have won, and lose it through making stupid, unforced errors, your supporters start looking at you pretty hard.
And they want answers to how you are using their money, and why you keep taxing them without sharing information.
Factional agendas played out on public forums can be interesting. Factionalism was a major factor in keeping Labour out in the political wilderness.
It can also be a sign of a failing Government as self-interest and survival kicks in.
Publicly stoking factionalism can also be a way of speeding up failure.
Who knows if this is the Whale Oil agenda?
UPDATE: they’re coming thick and fast today:
The teflon has worn off the Key frying pan and now stuff is starting to stick…it might have taken 8 years or so, but it is happening. To deny it is foolhardy.
That’s ten posts (at least) on a common theme today.