Maori Party supports Feed the Kids but doesn’t?

It seems that the Maori Party would vote for Mana’s “Feed the Kids” bill. Felix Marwick has tweeted:

@felixmarwick

Re food in schools. Maori Party says it will support Harawira Bill. I’m unsure how keen they are though.

He links to an audio clip of Tariana Turia who says:

Well I think we need to build whanau capacity to take care of their own. I’m really not a supporter of people outside of the family feeding the children.

That’s a contrast to Hone Harawira’s preference for the state taking responsibility for feeding children in schools. This morning he said on Firstline:

It’s time for the Government to provide for every child.

Mana’s bill was due to have it’s first vote in parliament today and was expected to not have enough votes. Harawira has just had the bill deferred and will be now introduced in July, to give him more time to try and get sufficient support.

In the meantime National is expected to announce more food in school measures in tomorrows budget.

Dunne backs convention centre “pragmatic deal”

National needed Peter Dunne’s support for the Sky City convention centre deal and will have made sure they had that before anouncing the deal. Dunne’s main concerns were the number of pokie machines, with up to 500 being talked about.

This has been addressd by reducing the pokie numbers and increasing measures against problem gambling.

  • An additional 230 pokie machines and 40 gaming tables
  • Four new measures to deter problem gambling and money laundering
    • a predictive modelling tool that analyses data to identify players at risk of problem gambling
    • a voluntary pre-commitment system where players can elect to restrict the amount of time they play or the amount they spend
    • doubling the number of Host Responsibility specialists
    • introduction of player identification requirements when amounts over $500 are being put onto, or cashed from, TITO tickets

Dunne has confirmed his support:

Yes, it is a pragmatic deal: assures Auckland gets its world class convention centre, and the number of pokie machines is at the lower end of the scale, which will continue to see the numbers of pokies across the country reduce.

As expected.

Hooton tootin’ for National+Winston

In his NBR Weekend Review Matthew Hooton is tootin’ for a National government propped up by Winston Peters, with a few baubles for Winston to swing the deal.

Both Mr Key and Mr Peters know they need one another.

Should he hold the balance of power, Mr Peters would be an uncomfortable third-wheel and office junior in a Labour/Green government. His journey back to the deputy prime ministership, perhaps the foreign minister’s job, a knighthood and a veneer of respectability is only possible with Mr Key.

For his part, Mr Key is almost certainly doomed without Mr Peters propping him up for a third term.

Strong economic growth gives National the chance to sit around the 44% mark, where it is polling now. Throw in 5% for Mr Peters, and Mr Key might just squeak back in again.

This is as bad as Labour giving up on going it alone and becoming dependent on Greens for any chance of being in government.

And Hooton discounting…

…private polling suggesting that perhaps as many as two-thirds of National voters would consider staying at home or changing their vote if they thought Mr Key might govern with Mr Peters. They wouldn’t of course, or certainly not in those numbers.

…is remarkable. It wouldn’t take anywhere near two-thirds of National voters to change or abstain to cause major electoral problems for National. One third of the current approximate 45% level of support for National is 15% – that would drop them to about 30%, struggling on the same level as Labour.

And it’s not just National voters that could be problematic if a National+Winston government was signalled as likely. The swing voters in the middle would then have the dilemma of a choice between National+Winston versus Labour+Greens+Mana.

Perhaps Hooton hopes that many voters will give up in horror and that National may emerge victorious from the ruins of an election.

Hooton tootin’ has to be taken with a sea-ful of salt.

MRP float – success or failure?

Once you look past all the politicking I think it has to be seen as a moderate success, with a share price just below the range predicted. There’s been a good take up of shares from private buyers , New Zealand and international investors.

Labour and the Greens are trying to talk up various points of failure, but they ignore the reality – 49% of Mighty River has been sold at a reasonable price.

It may have been valued down by up to $200 milion due to the Labour-Green NZ Power announcement, which may also have scared off small and first time investors, but that doesn’t make the share float a failure.

I think that over a hundred thousand purchases is a reasonable number. About the only thing that would have been gained by more people investing would have been National bragging rights. It has made little or no difference to the sale price.

The success of the Mixed Ownership Model is another thing altogether. It will take years to see the real effect on Mighty River, on power generation and on power prices.

Solid Energy is a market casualty before it has had a chance to be floated, that’s just as well.

The success of MOM in National’s cuurrent term in Government will be determined as much by the next couple of floats.There has been a lot of interest in the first SOE part sale, that interest may or may not be maintained.

If Meridian goes on sale next and does at least as well then National could claim some substantial success rather than one-off success.

If the Meridian float doesn’t do so well then it would raise questions about how god an idea the MOM programme was.

Note: I have supported National’s right to progress their flagship policy but have had mixed views on the nature of the MOM programme. I would prefer it was based on more business-like decisions but election cycle syndrome means less than ideal decisions are made.

Did David Farrar sabotage the asset petition?

Russel Norman’s last tweet yesterday:

So if the National Party activist David Farrar signed the asset sale petition 13 times, did Nats organise this nationally?

Funny to see Norman referring to Farrar as a “National Party activist”.

Farrar has responded on Facebook:

Seeing the response to today’s joke tweet, I am thinking of becoming a professional troll. The waves of outrage are quite addictive!

Farra’s “joke tweet” was amongst an exchange on the number of disallowed signatures on the asset sale petition. On a Kiwiblog post Massive fail for Labour and Greens Farrar claims:

This is incredible. They spent around $400,000 gathering signatures for their asset sales petition, and they failed to get enough valid signatures.

They needed 308,753 valid signatures but fell short by 16,500.

That is a massive fail and gross political incompetence. They didn’t have to submit the petition when they did. They could have carried on getting more signatures to make sure.

I’m still staggered for now that despite spending $400,000 and having the entire memberships of the Labour and Green parties, and most unions, they proved unable to get enough valid signatures.  You could understand it if they were close to the deadline to submit – but they were not. They made a tactical decision to submit early for political posturing, and have ended up with egg on their face.

UPDATE: They claimed to have 400,000 signatures but got 292,250 valid ones. That means 107,750 were invalid which is a massive 26.9%. Maybe they should have put their paid petition gatherers on performance pay!

Here’s the offending tweet:

 ‏@dpfdpf
So was it wrong of me to sign the #assetsales petition 13 times? I used a different name each time, so figured that was fine :-)

I saw that tweet at the time, 8.37 pm last night. I can only see minor response to that tweet, Farrar then went out fot the evening (according to another tweet) and Norman was not very active, a few tweets defending the petition and then the one accusing Farrar.

Farrar was obviously joking. Norman must know this but is trying to score some political mileage by trying to portray it as an organised National sabotage of the petition.

Over the last year when the petition was gathering signatures I saw many quips and claims in social media that people had signed the petition using fake names – eg Mickey Mouse. It’s impossible to know if these commenters were saying what they had actually done or were trying to encourage others to do it.

I don’t agree with deliberately spoiling a petition but I’m not surprised, the Greens used what is supposed to be a Citizen Initiated Referendum into a party campaign tool, using it to promote themselves and to harvest contact email addresses, phone numbers and postal addresses (as did Labour).

So it shouldn’t be surprising that political game playing may have occurred with the petition. Norman played down a country wide 2011 campaign stunt by Green activists defacing National election hoardings.

Defacing petition forms is probably a degree worse but as a Citizen’s referendum it was farcical and futile, so making it more farcical doesn’t seem to be a big deal.

Not that I think Farrar signed 13 times, I highly doubt that he did, he was joking on Twitter. Some will have deliberately the spoiled petition, but there will be many reasons for invalid signatures.

Someone I know told me that a signature gatherer was so pushy they found it easier to just sign (again) than say no.

And a couple of examples from a petition supporting blog, The Standard, in Asset sales petition has more work to do.

tamati 9

I remember seeing a petition at an op shop on Dominion road. Was just sitting on the counter, with nobody actually supervising. Saw a bunch of girls in school uniform sign up, and nobody seemed to know this was wrong!

shorts 13

I wonder how many are disallowed due to them not being on the electoral role – given over a million eligible voters didn’t vote last election, one could surmise there’s a lot of young people whom may have signed simply not on the roll?

Yep as someone who spent a lot of time collecting signatures the number of people who had changed addresses were significant. And without a date of birth date the chances of identifying them on the roll would have been very poor.

I am actually not surprised at this problem. It is just what happens when you have volunteers talking to ordinary people and collecting signatures without the benefit of electoral rolls being on hand.

The Al1en 16

I signed the petition in the Labour party Hamilton office in Te Rapa.
I was told to only sign my name and date of birth.
And they want to run the country when they can’t even get a form filled out properly.
Good work, front desk nobody.

With consideration, I remember I queried it at the time and did put my name down, but I do recall seeing a lot of just names and birth dates. Hope that page wan’t pulled out for a scan by the clerk.

karol 23.3

I’m still concerned about the fact that I moved since I signed the petition – wonder if that makes my signature invalid.

So obviously it’s very difficult ensuring that only valid signatures are collected, and a high failure rate isn’t surprising.

Greens and Labour will have known there was a high error rate, as they were harvesting data off the petition forms, Duplicates and obvious bogus names would have been known about.

They delayed presentation of the petition. This was probably due to known error rates. But they miscalculated – and were under pressure to present the petition before Mighty River Power shares were floated.

Russel Norman could look at any number of reasons why the operation failed to make the required threshold.

Blaming David Farrar and a National spoiling campaign looks a bit desperate.

But I guess a highly party politicised “citizen’s” petition/referendum campaign is going to remain highly politicised.

“National struggles to fill list”

Tracey Watkins has written about Aaron Gilmore and the quality of MPs in National struggles to fill list despite healthy pay.

The money’s good, the hours are flexible and the job comes with influence and power. But apparently it’s a struggle finding decent applicants for a job as an MP, even on a hefty pay packet of $142,000 a year, plus expenses.

National also runs an “integrated list” – which means candidates prepared to put their hand up in unwinnable seats are rewarded with a list placing as well.

That was how Mr Gilmore got a place on the party list, because he stood for Christchurch East, where National had no chance of winning.

In safe seats like Tamaki, however, four or five high-quality candidates would jostle for selection – but only one would make the cut.

Many high-fliers, meanwhile, were not prepared to give up their other lives for an uncertain political future.

Watkins quotes David Farrar who had blogged on this in List Ranking:

“Unless you really rate yourself to become a minister and, more importantly, you can see yourself becoming a minister in three or four years, the salary doesn’t attract some of the high-fliers”.

“The reality is … you go in at the bottom of the pile and if you’re lucky, or like Nikki Kaye work really hard, you get to become a minister. But if National had lost the last election, she also could have spent the next six or seven years in Opposition.”

There are major time and financial commitments in standing for Parliament. Farrar has previously said that a candidate needs to dedicate at least six months leading up to an election. And many people having their first attempt will be low on the list and/or will be standing in an unwinnable seat, so the chances of success are limited.

People wanting to maintain business activity or employment simply can’t afford the time off that campaigning requires, especially if standing for one of the major parties.

Watkins also says former Labour Party president Mike Williams…

…says Labour doesn’t have the same problem because for most of its candidates $142,000 is a lot of money.

But Labour candidates also have the time commitment problem – and they are not guaranteed to get the $142,000 salary at the end of the campaign. Over half their candidates in 2011 failed to make it into Parliament.

Labour may have less of a problem getting candidates – but they have at least as much of a problem getting quality candidates. Even though they have not much more than half the MPs that National has the depth of quality is hardly stellar. There are calls from within Labour ranks to revitalise their line up of MPs.

Another aspect regarding quality of lists is that how a successful candidate will measure up as an MP is a lottery.It is a totally different job for all new MPs. Some rise to the task, some don’t – like Aaron Gilmore up until now.

Greens have weaknesses in their list of MPs.

And all the small parties have real difficulty in getting quality candidates.

I don’t know if there’s anything that can be done to improve the quality of MPs. Maybe we just have to accept the system as it is and take our chances with who we get to represent us in Parliament.

 

The Gilmore damage

Aaron Gilmore has been back in Parliament just a few months, and is as low and ineffectual as National MP could be. But his drunken stupidity and his subsequent dishonest apologies and possible dishonest assurance to the Prime Minister could have a significant effect on our politics, albeit mostly negative.

Gilmore has damaged his own political career, possibly terminally.

There is also some damage to his party, reinforcing a belief by some that that all of National see themselves as privileged rich pricks. Some critics on the left are trying to inflate this damage.

And there could yet be damage to the National Government. If John Key has no choice but to have Gilmore excommunicated from National and Gilmore remains in Parliament as an independent MP (Key can’t remove him from being a list MP) that could be problematic for a Government that frequently has a majority of one.

There is also wider damage.

Many people outside politics view all MPs in the same light – dimly. Gilmore reinforces a wider impression that all MPs are arrogant and full of self importance.

Gilmore has also highlighted another problem, in two ways.

He is a symptom of the lack of depth of quality of MPs in Parliament. All parties with multiple MPs suffer from this, from NZ First and Greens to Labour and National.

And second, he be helping discourage people putting themselves forward to be an MP.

One probable reason it is hard to recruit quality political candidates is the exposure it gives the people and often to their families. If an MP makes a mistake or few, as Gilmore has, the media switch to over exposure mode. Criticism of Gilmore has now also become ridicule, with Campbell Live running showing Gilmore in a very unflattering way, going through things he has said about himself in the past.

Gilmore has not only trashed his own reputation, he has also impacted on the reputation of National and of Parliament.

Some people may be prepared to put themselves forward to be considered as MP prospects because they think they could at least do better than Gilmore.

But more people are likely to be further warned that the life of a politician can expose you to sometimes extreme scrutiny and criticism.

I’ve had a taste of this, I only operate in a small way on the very periphery of politics, but I have experienced targeted abuse and attempts to discredit simply because of being seen as a potential threat to someone or some party who thinks i could be competition, or could be critical of them.

On a bigger scale media give super exposure to MPs given any excuse. The Gilmore gaffs gave them a license to shrill.

Such is the vagaries of modern society, where one night getting pissed and in this case flaunting political power can potentially cause a lot of flow on damage.

Key’s poll reaction

A curious headline in Stuffs’s Today in Politics:

KEY CHOOSES NOT TO REACT TO NEW ROY MORGAN POLL

Prime Minister John Key is not counting his chickens too soon after a Roy Morgan poll on Thursday had the Nats up 6 points to 46.5 at the expense of Labour, which had slipped down.

Mr Key said the Roy Morgan poll tended to ‘‘move around a hell of a lot’’ and he would wait and see what other polls said.

However,  he was not surprised that people had seen through the Labour and Greens’ power policy.

That sounds like a political reaction to me.

The poll had National Party on 46.5%, Labour on 31.5% (down 4%) and Greens 11% (down 2.5%).

One bouncy poll – see Roy Morgan poll bounce – doesn’t tell a whole story but it does look likely that National up and Labour and Greens down by significant amounts can be at least party attributed to the NZ Power announcement and subsequent publicity.

Roy Morgan poll bounce

The latest Roy Morgan poll shows either as bounce back or a reaction to the marriage bill and the NZ Power announcement and ensuing publicity.

National Party 46.5% (up 6% since April 1-14, 2013)
Maori Party 1.5% (down 0.5%)
ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged)
United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Labour is 31.5% (down 4%)
Greens are 11% (down 2.5%)
New Zealand First 4.5% (down 0.5%)
Mana Party 1% (up 0.5%)

Conservative Party of NZ 2% (up 0.5%)
Others 1% (up 0.5%).

Conservatives trending up (1.0, 1.5, 2.0) suggest a bit of improvement from the marriage bill.

National up substantially to 46.5 from an unusually low result last time of 40.5 after a previous 44.0 suggests they haven’t been damaged much if at all from either the marriage bill nor the power debate.

Both Labour and Greens down suggest a possible hit as a result of their power announcements.

And the response (hardly any) at The Standard suggests a bit of glumness on the left after their celebrations after the last poll.

The next poll in a forthnight will get a better idea if this is further poll instability or a trend as a result of the power debate/

Gilmore digs deeper with half arsed apologies

Aaron Gilmore “apologised” in Twitter:

Aaron Gilmore ‏@aarongilmore

I’ve apologised again for any offence that may have been taken from the behaviour of my group and I that a waiter may have received on Sat.

That’s no better than his last attempt, and repeating the same mistake makes it worse.

Toby Manhire at The Listener: “which frankly amounts to a fraction rather less than half-arsed”.

A fairly big fraction.

Gilmore has been reported to be refusing to do any interviews, but has issued a media statement.

Aaron Gilmore
National Party MP

Media Statement

2 May 2013

MP Aaron Gilmore apologises

National List MP Aaron Gilmore is this morning apologising to staff and patrons at the Heritage Hotel Hamner Springs following a dinner he atended there on Saturday 27 April.

“As a group of diners our behaviour was at times boisterous and I sincerely apologise for any offence this may have caused any staff and/or patrons”, Mt Gilmore said.

“I intend to convey my apologies on behalf of the group to hotel staff and understand that Members of Parliament should uphold, and be seen to uphold, the highest of standards at all times”.

“On this occasion I believe as a group, our behaviour fell short of this mark, and I should have recognised this at the time”.

“I also plan to pass my apologies on to the Prime Minister for failing to meet the standards I believe National MP’s should uphold.

That’s another half arsed apology, trying to spread the blame across the whole group and failing to accept full responsibility for his own behaviour. As per my previous post - Aaron Gilmore – dickhead unapologetic – one of that group was embarassed by Gilmores own specific behaviour:

A lawyer friend of Christchurch-based MP Aaron Gilmore was so embarrassed by the politician’s behaviour after a bottle and a half of wine that he wrote an apology to hotel staff.

Riches last night confirmed he left the note for the waiter, saying he did so because he felt Gilmore had been “a bit rude” and he felt “a bit embarrassed by what happened”.

The Press understands the note apologised on behalf of Gilmore for his “appalling” conduct and congratulated the waiter on his professionalism.

Gilmore is still failing to meet the standards expected of any MP.

And MP mistakes lead to a lot more scrutiny. Toby Manhire has added to his post at The Listener:

Postscript: An afterthought. Maybe it was all just research. For guess who said:

We cannot legislate away New Zealand’s binge-drinking culture, but legislation can contribute to a culture change.

And:

We are all worried about the impacts of alcohol; we are all worried about the impacts of alcohol on young people in particular. As one of the youngest members of this House, I have recently experienced and seen many of the things that alcohol can do to young people. In my time as a young man, I have been one of the generation that has been a guinea pig for alcohol laws.

And:

Youth are not always the sole problem in regard to drinking. I can tell members that the most scared I have ever been in my entire life was when I was a bar manager in Christchurch, on the night of a male strip revue, and 20 middle-aged women were liquored up to the max, to the extent that I was frightened to leave the building and I locked myself in the toilet. I was the most frightened I had ever been in my entire life. When 20 drunken middle-aged women were chasing me, looking for action, I can tell members that that was the most frightening moment of my life.

And:

I have seen many, many middle-aged people out of control from drinking. A number of members of this House have had their problems with drinking, with drink-driving, and with other things needing professional help for their drinking.

And:

I enjoy a social drink with my friends and whānau, and I would hate to see a move to restrict too far the law-abiding people who wish to pick up a bottle of wine at the supermarket and enjoy it with good food, or to see a restriction on my ability to know what is the biggest special on wine at my supermarket.

That’s from A balanced plan for alcohol reform

A balanced to apologies and alcohol reform might be in order.

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