3 News September poll

The September 2015 3 News/Reid Research poll was published tonight. It contrasts with the recent Roy Morgan poll which had National dropping to 44.5%.

  • National 47.3% (up 0.3)
  • Labour 33.0% (up 1.9)
  • Greens 10.0% (down 1.4)
  • NZ First 7.9% (down 0.5)
  • ACT Party 0.6% (up 0.1)
  • Maori Party 0.5% (down 0.1)
  • United Future 0.0% (down 0.1)
  • Conservative Party 0.5% (down 0.2)

National are holding up and Labour should be quietly hopeful after another rise, but at the expense of Greens and NZ First.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • John Key 39.5% (up 1.2)
  • Andrew Little 10.8% (up 0.6)
  • Winston Peters 8.6% (up -2.5)
  • Jacinda Ardern 3.5%

Has the gloss gone off Winston’s Northland win? Both NZ First and he are down.

Do you want a change of flag?

  • No 69%
  • Yes 25%
  • Don’t know 6%

A big battle ahead for change.

Roy Morgan poll bounces, National down, Labour & Greens up

The fluctuations of Roy Morgan polls continues with National dropping back down, this time to 44.5%, while Labour bounce back to 31%. Greens have also bounced up, to 15%

  • National 44.5% (down 6)
  • Labour 31% (up 4)
  • Greens 15% (up 4)
  • NZ First 5.5% (down 2.5)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (unchanged)
  • Act NZ 0.5% (unchanged)
  • United Future 0.5% (up 0.5)
  • Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (up 1%)
  • Internet-Mana Party alliance 0.5% (unchanged)
  • Independent/ Others 0% (down 1%)

Polling period August 31 to September 13, 2015.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 876 electors in September 2015. Of all electors surveyed 8% (up 2.5%) didn’t name a party.

Confidence rating:

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased to 128.5pts (up 8.5pts) in September. An increasing majority of NZ electors 58% (up 4%) say NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 29.5% (down 4.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. NZ Government Confidence is far higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence is at only 90pts.


70% + 13% support medical cannabis

NZ Herald reports on a Herald-DigiPoll on cannabis that found 70% want medical pot legal.

An overwhelming number of New Zealanders support the legalisation of cannabis for medicinal use, the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey shows.

Poll voters were asked which statement best fitted their view on the legalisation of cannabis.

  • Wanted the drug legalised only for medicinal use under strict conditions – 70%
  • Wanted it kept illegal for all uses – 15%
  • Wanted it legalised for all uses – 13%

The poll of 750 eligible voters was taken on August 14-24 and has a margin of error of 3.6 per cent.

That’s a total of 83% who would support medical cannabis. That doesn’t surprise me, but the low number wanting it legalised does. The medical cannabis option may have distorted that.

Mr Dunne said the results were not surprising. “The reason I’ve been interested in exploring the medicinal cannabis aspect is reflective of that type of feeling.”

In March, Mr Dunne told the UN Commission on Narcotic Drugs meeting in Vienna that evidence of the benefits of medicinal cannabis was underwhelming, and he stuck by that statement.

“There’s not a great deal of evidence around, there are trials being undertaken … but hard evidence as to beneficial impact is difficult to come by.

“But if it is beneficial and passes muster, then there’s no reason why [certain products] shouldn’t be made available.”

There’s support from Labour and the Greens.

Labour MP Damien O’Connor, who began drafting a private member’s bill to allow better access to medicinal cannabis after Mr Renton’s case, said he still hoped to put a bill forward, but was encouraged by Mr Dunne’s approach. “Ensuring we get the legislation right, that it does just open the door for medicinal purposes, is absolutely crucial.”

Green Party health spokesman Kevin Hague said the party supported the use of medicinal cannabis.

Getting National to agree to any changes will be more difficult, but if sufficient favourable research is done the availability of medical cannabis products could be done under current law.

Despite signing off Mr Renton’s medication, Mr Dunne said it did not create a precedent – rather, a long-available procedure to get approval for a restricted product had been used for the first time.

Any impression the floodgates have been opened were “wrong and naive”, Mr Dunne said, but he has asked officials to watch medicinal cannabis product trials overseas, including in Australia and the United States.

If new medicinal cannabis products – likely to be sprays or oils – were introduced to the market they would go through the same assessment process led by Medsafe.

Some will be disappointed that relaxing the law on recreational use of cannabis isn’t on the agenda but that reality is that under a National Government that is unlikely to change, especially when Labour and the Greens don’t put any pressure on.

One News/Colmar Brunton poll

The latest One News/Colmar Brunton poll:

  • National 47% (no change)
  • Labour 32% (no change)
  • Greens 12% (down 1)
  • NZ First 7% (no change)
  • Maori Party 1% (up 1)

Negligible change there.


Preferred Prime Minister:

  • John Key 40% (no change)
  • Andrew Little 10% (up 2)
  • Winston Peters 6% (down 1)

Polling period: 29 August – 2 September

  • Change the flag to a new design: 28% (up 2)
  • Keep the current flag: 66% (up 2)
  • Don’t know 6% (down 3)

Link: http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/index.php/polls-and-surveys/political-polls/one-news-colmar-brunton-poll

Report: http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/images/150907_1_ONE_News_Colmar_Brunton_Poll_report_29_Aug-2_Sep_2015.pdf

UMR flag poll – August 2015

UMR did a poll of the final forty flag designs. This suggests that the Flag Panel are folowing public opinion with their final four choices.



So it looks like the Panel has taken nore of public preferences.

UMRFlagAugust3Considering that until recently a significant percentage were against flag change this suggests the top choices are seen as reasonably acceptable and popular.


  • Results in this report are from the monthly UMR Online Omnibus survey. The survey is a nationally representative sample of 1000 New Zealanders, 18 years of age and over.
  • The survey was conducted from 25th to 31st August 2015.
  • The sample size of n=1000, has a margin of error for a 50% figure at the 95% confidence level of ± 3.1%.

Source: UMR flag referendum August 2015

Final four flags – online polls

The first flaf referendum will be to choose from the final four alternative flag desigs, but online polls run since the final four were released yesterday also included the current flag.

The four alternative flag designs

NZ Herald:

Which flag design do you like?

  • Silver Fern (Black, White and Blue) by Kyle Lockwood 32%
  • The original flag 28%
  • Silver Fern (Red, White and Blue) by Kyle Lockwood 21%
  • Silver Fern (Black & White) by Alofi Kanter 6%
  • Koru by Andrew Fyfe 4%
  • None of the above 9%

15500–15550 votes


Which flag do you prefer?

  • Keep the current flag (5759 votes) 39%
  • Silver Fern (Black, White and Blue) – Kyle Lockwood (4085 votes) 27%
  • Silver Fern (Red, White and Blue) – Kyle Lockwood (3436 votes) 23%
  • Black and White Fern – Alofi Kanter (893 votes) 6%
  • Koru – Andrew Fyfe (705 votes) 5%

3 News:

Which alternative Z flag design do you prefer?

  • Existing NZ flag (4989 votes) 52%
  • Kyle Lockwood’s Silver fern black and blue (2305 votes) 24%
  • Kyle Lockwood’s Silver fern red and blue (1313 votes) 14%
  • Alofi Kanter’s Silver fern black and white (625 votes) 6%
  • Black Koru (428 votes) 4%

Online polls are indicative only as they are self selecting non-scientific polls but thse give an indication of current levels of support for the alternatives and for retaining thje current flag.

Opinion is obviously quite divided and variable at this stage.

Poll on Trans Pacific Partership

A Herald Digipoll shows that while there’s hard core opposition to the Trans Pacific Partnership most people (67.9%) either support the principle of a TPP or don’t know enough about it yet to decide.


NZ is one of the 12 countries negotiating a free trade deal called the Trans Pacific Partnership. Without yet knowing it’s details, which of the following best fits your general impression?

  • I support it on the basis that Z’s economic well-being depends on increased trade in the world:  22.9%
  • I oppose it on the basis of what I’ve heard about disputes between companies and Government being settled by private tribunals: 33.1%
  • I don’t know enough to form any view: 45.0%
  • Don’t know/refuse: 0.8%

Herald-Digipoll August 14 to 24. Sample size 750. Margin of error 3.6%

It looks like outside ideologiogical support/opposition public opinion is prepared to wait to see agreement might be reached  before taking a stance.

Source: Herald-Digipoll

Ardern one of favoured Little replacements

Jacinda Ardern is one of the more favoured relacements should Andrew Little step down from the Labour leadership, but NZ Herald talks her up more than us justified in Jacinda Ardern’s star still rising.

They have publisghed two poll resuo\lts:

Preferred Prime Minister

John Key 63.7 (down 0.9)
Andrew Little 13.3 (down 0.6)
Winston Peters 11.6 (down 0.4)
Jacinda Ardern 3.9 (up 3.4)
Helen Clark 2.6 (up 1.6)
Metiria Turei 0.9 (up 0.6)
James Shaw 0.6 (up 0.6)

Ardern has jumped up there but she’s not far ahead of the margin of error for Helen Clark.

Q: If Andrew Little were to step down as Labour leader during this term, who do you think would his best replacements as Opposition leader?

Annette King 21.8
Jacinda Ardern 20.1
Grant Robertson 18.0
Phil Twyford 4.0
None of the above 10.5
Don’t know/ refused 25.7

That doesn’t look good for Labour.

King is one of their most respected MPs, was deputy leader under Phill Goff, is currently deputy leader, and has been stand in leader during last year’s leadership contest, but she can hardly be seen seriously as a leader of the future.

That Ardern and Grant Robertson come close behind with over a third (36.2%) ‘none’ or ‘don’t know/refused’ might suggest Little’s leadership is secure but it doesn’t look great for alternatives.

Ardern has shown no sign of being ready to step up to lreadership type responsibilites and Robertson is a multiple failure in leadership contests.

The poll of 750 eligible voters was conducted between August 14 – 24.

Trumped by Democrats

Donald Trump for President? Perhaps in America it could happen but it looks more like he will disrupt the Republican chances.

Trump is the leading Republican contender in polls but also the most opposed. And he lags behind all the leading Democrats in the latest Quinnipiac poll.

Favourability ratings (all voters):

  • Donald Trump 27 – 59
  • Hillary Clinton 40 – 51
  • Jeb Bush 43 – 42
  • Scott Walker 36 – 27
  • Joe Biden 49 – 37
  • Bernie Sanders 32 – 25

Republican voters for:

  • Donald Trump 20%
  • Scott Walker 13%
  • Jeb Bush 10%

Republican voters “would definitely not support”:

  • Donald Trump 30%
  • Chris Cristie 15%
  • Jeb Bush 14%

Jeb, the third Bush to try for the presidency, looks to be battling too.

Hillary Clinton also tops both the for and against but on quite different levels to Trump:

Democrat voters for:

  • Hillary Clinton 55%
  • Bernie Sanders 17%
  • Joe Biden 13%

Democrat voters “would definitely not support”:

  • Hillary Clinton 9%
  • Martin O’Malley 8%
  • Lincoln Chafee 8%

Match-ups (all voters) are interesting:

  • Clinton versus Trump 48% – 36%
  • Clinton versus Bush 41% – 42%
  • Clinton versus Walker 44% – 43%

I’m surprised Joe Biden is a serious contender but:

  • Biden versus Trump 49% – 37%
  • Biden versus Bush 43% – 42%
  • Biden versus Walker 43% – 43%

It’s only fifteen months and about 15 billion polls and dollars until the US election.

Two polls strongly support euthanasia

Both One News and Three News have done polls on euthanasia with strong support for changing the law and allowing euthanasia.

One News/Colmar Brunton:

Should a patient should be able to request a doctor’s assistance to end their life?

  • Yes 75%
  • No 21%
  • Undecided 5%

1000 voters questioned

3 News/Reid Research

Should law be changed to allow “assisted dying” or euthanasia?

  • Yes 71%
  • No 24%
  • Unsure 5%

Patrick Gower asked John Key if the Government would heed public opinion and do something about it. Key said they wouldn’t, but if a well drafted Member’s Bill was put before parliament he said he would support it.

The chances of a Member’s Bill being drawn is low – ad at this stage there isn’t a Bill in the ballot anyway.

One News had a report with their poll result: Lecretia Seales’ widower praises Kiwis for poll showing support for doctor assisted euthanasia

Lecretia Seales’ widower Matt Vickers is welcoming a ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll which shows the majority of New Zealanders want dying patients to be able to rely on their doctor for help to end their lives.

“We’re glad to see that New Zealanders agree that it is appropriate, respectful and compassionate, and we hope that Parliament does their job and achieves legislative change that the majority of New Zealanders clearly want.”

“Through her High Court case, Lecretia hoped to raise awareness of the appropriateness of physician assisted dying legislation in some form,” he says.

The debate about euthanasia was back in the headlines last week when the results of a study of General Practitioners was released, showing some had made decisions likely to hasten the death of their terminally ill patients.

The study was published in the New Zealand Medical Journal and asked 650 GPs about the last death they’d attended.

There seems to be everything that’s needed except any political will to address euthanasia.

And Stuff reports: Doctors and nurses more involved in patients’ ‘end-of-life’ decisions – study

A University of Auckland study anonymously surveyed 650 GPs.

Sixteen reported prescribing, supplying or administering a drug with the explicit intention of bringing death about more quickly.

But in 15 of those cases, it was nurses who administered the drugs.

Researchers acknowledged the actions of the GPs would generally be understood as euthanasia, but the survey did not use that term.

In the survey, led by Auckland University senior lecturer Dr Phillipa Malpas, GPs were asked about the last death at which they were the attending doctor.

Of the 650 to respond, 359 (65.6 per cent) reported that they had made decisions, such as withdrawing treatment or alleviating pain, taking into account the probability that they may hasten death.

Some made explicit decisions about hastening death.

Of the 359, 16.2 per cent withheld treatments with the “explicit purpose of not prolonging life or hastening the end of life”.

A total of 316 doctors gave pain medication taking into account that death might come sooner, but it was not the intention. Rather, the doctor may have taken the decision to make the dying patient more comfortable in their final hours.


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