RM Poll – National not damaged (yet)

The latest Roy Morgan polls has National up slightly and Labour down slightly.

  • National 48% (up 2%) 
  • Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%)
  • Act NZ 0.5% (unchanged)
  • United Future 0.5% (unchanged)
  • Labour 27.5% (down 2.5%)
  • Greens 11.5% (down 0.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (up 1.5%
  • Internet-Mana Party 2.5% (unchanged)
  • Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged)
  • Independent/ Others 1% (unchanged).


Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 809 electors from August 4-17, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.

Significant party support swings since 2011

Colmar Brunton have done a very interesting analysis of movements in party preference since the 2011 election. It shows there are significant swings across all major parties, both to and from each party.


Surprising poll result for Greens in Epsom

Colmar Brunton have polled Epsom voters on their electorate vote but perhaps the most surprising result was on party vote:

  • National 60%,
  • Greens 16%
  • Labour 14%
  • NZ First 3.3%
  • ACT 2.7%
  • Conservatives 2.1%
  • Internet-Mana 1.5%
  • Maori Party 0.6%

Greens are understandably very pleased.

Source: http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/index.php/polls-and-surveys/political-polls/q-a-colmar-brunton-poll

National down, Labour up in latest poll

National have dropped significantly and Labour have recovered in the latest Roy Morgan poll, but Greens are also down reducing the right to left swing.

Volatility and uncertainty are apparent.

  • National 46% (down 5%)
  • Labour Party 30% (up 6.5%)
  • Greens 12% (down 3)
  • NZ First 5% (down 1%)
  • Internet-Mana Party  2.5% (up 1%)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%)
  • ACT NZ (0.5%, unchanged)
  • United Future 0.5% (unchanged)
  • Conservative Party of NZ 1% (unchanged)
  • Independent/ Others 1% (up 1%)

The string of embarrassments for National seem to have taken their toll. They will be getting a bit anxious after this result.

Internet-Mana are climbing on the back of sustained publicity and promotions.

The Conservatives are nowhere near the levels claimed by Colin Craig and Christine Rankin.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 818 electors from July 14-27, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.

Roy Morgan poll 31 July 2014

New Zealand Voting Intention Summary

Campaign “at a delicate stage” for Labour

How can I put this delicately?

Greg Presland has posted  The election campaign is at a delicate stage: at The Standard:

We are entering an interesting phase of the election campaign and a number of recent events may have a critical effect on the eventual outcome.

Firstly nothing is more important in politics than momentum.  The latest Colmar Brunton poll result 1 suggests that Labour may be developing some of that most cherished of political assets, momentum in the polls.

Thankfully the slide in Labour’s support has reversed and there has been a healthy increase from poll results with Labour polling nearly 5% above the recent Roy Morgan and a previous Ipsos poll results.

‘Swordfish’ has been analysing polls and gives some detail:

Labour’s Poll Support – June/July in chronological order

28, 31, 23, 27, 29, 28

24, 25, 27, 27, 28

So, Labour’s does seem to have largely bounced back from that little trough.

So Labour are back to where they were at the start and end of June. As far as polling goes the last three results have been virtually the same – which coincidentally is virtually the same as their record low result in the 2011 election.

The 23 and 24 results were weeks apart so may be blips in general trends. If so that means Labour is pretty much flatlining, taking into account margin of error, which is about +/- 2.75 for 27% with a sample size of 1000.

Another comment points out the slight drop in support from the previous One News/Colmar poll…

National has climbed to 52% in the latest ONE News/Colmar Brunton poll while Labour is down one point to 28%.

Labour on 28% is just above its 2011 election result and the Greens have also slipped, dropping two points to 10%.

…which puts National on 52% compared to Labour+Green on 38%. That does look a wee bit delicate.

Tom Gould points out:

Breathing a sign of relief that support only dropped one per cent to 28 whereas the Tories only rose two per cent to 52, and the gap between Labour and Green versus the Tory only widened to 14 points, hardly shows the campaign at “a delicate stage”. T

What looks “delicate” is the grasp on reality.

Activists like Presland have to try and sound positive – especially with a Labour slogan of Vote Positive – but trying to talk up a mangy dog of a position risks looking out of touch as Tom eluded to.

Presland does try to explain his post…

1 This post has been written in a style which right wing commentators usually use.

…but it doesn’t sound anything like the style any tight wing commentators I know of use, let alone a supposed collective “right wing commentators”.

It’s difficult for Labour to promote themselves in what looks like a dire  situation. Talking sunshine in a cyclone can look more than a bit out of touch.

Labour should at least be trying to convince voters they know how to use an umbrella.

Enrolments declining, flawed poll

Stuff reports Voter enrolment rates declining:

Voter enrolment rates are declining in almost every electorate in New Zealand, despite a general election being less than two months away.

As we reported last month about 367,000 eligible voters are yet to enrol to vote.

Since that report, the percentage of eligible voters enrolled to vote has fallen in all but six electorates, according to the latest figures from the Electoral Commission – albeit by less than one per cent in most cases.

That’s disappointing but not surprising considering the declining standards in politics, the current campaign circus and the disarray in Labour. It will be an uphill battle for Labour and other parties who have claimed they will “get out the vote” by targeting non-voters.

Stuff has a poll on it’s Political page that links with this but it is seriously flawed. Current result are:

Will you be voting in this year’s General Election?

  • Yes, I always vote – 902 votes, 92.5%
  • Not this year. None of the parties represent my political views – 55 votes, 5.6%
  • I never vote – 18 votes, 1.8%

The Yes response is far higher than likely voter turnout (last election it was 74.2%) but this self selecting poll will never give anywhere near an accurate result.

People who are disillusioned with the current parties are less likely to be reading the Political pages at Stuff and those who never vote are far less likely to be anywhere near a political news page poll.

This is like going to a public bar and polling patrons on who might have a drink on election day. The “Never drink” response is likely to be quite low.

Turnout over the last sixty years (since polling has been on a Saturday):

1954 13-Nov 91.4
1957 30-Nov 92.9
1960 26-Nov 89.8
1963 30-Nov 89.6
1966 26-Nov 86
1969 29-Nov 88.9
1972 25-Nov 89.1
1975 29-Nov 82.5
1978 25-Nov 69.2[9]
1981 28-Nov 91.4
1984 14-Jul 93.7
1987 15-Aug 89.1
1990 27-Oct 85.2
1993 6-Nov 85.2
1996 12-Oct 88.3
1999 27-Nov 84.8
2002 27-Jul 77
2005 17-Sep 80.9
2008 8-Nov 79.5
2011 26-Nov 74.2

[9] This figure is misleading because the electoral rolls in 1978 contained a large number of outdated and duplicate entries. If the 361,000 names deleted in 1979-80 are subtracted, the turnout was 79.9%


More bad poll news for Labour

The July Fairfax/IPSOS is out this morning and while it has a slight improvement for Labour they are only up to 24.9%.

There are some variations to the Roy Morgan moll that came out yesterday.

  • National 54.8% (down 1.7, Roy Morgan 51)
  • Labour 24.9% (up 1.7, Roy Morgan 23.5)
  • Greens 12.4% (up 0.5, Roy Morgan 15.0)
  • NZ First 2.6% (down 0.6, Roy Morgan 6.0)
  • Conservative 1.3% (up 0.4, Roy Morgan 1.0)
  • Mana 1.2% (no change, Roy Morgan Internet-Mana 1.5)
  • Maori Party 0.9% (up 0.2, Roy Morgan 1.0)
  • United Future 0.2% (up 0.2, Roy Morgan 0.5)
  • ACT 0.1% (down 0.6, Roy Morgan 0.5)

Tracey Watkins comments on the poll in Could National lose the unloseable?

The number of National voters contacted by our pollsters has not markedly changed since our last poll in June – the real movement is among Labour-leaning voters, who appear to have become a highly volatile bunch at this point in the electoral cycle.

And in the Stuff poll report National holds on to huge lead:

Today’s poll, which follows Labour’s recent election-year congress and a series of targeted announcements on education policy, shows more decided voters, with Labour clearly benefiting from the change.

But 15.3 per cent of voters still don’t know who they will vote for.

Analysis of other polls has indicated similar patterns of stable support for National and volatile support for Labour. Much may depend on whether support firms up for Labour in the poll that matters or if it deserts them.

And much may also depend on late swings to small parties, which can be a lottery for opportunists. There’s a big difference in results for NZ First and a notable difference for Greens between these two polls.


Click here for full graphics.

Roy Morgan results.

Labour 23.5% in latest Roy Morgan

The latest Roy Morgan:

  • National 51% (up 3%)
  • Labour Party 23.5% (down 4.5% )
  • Greens are 15% (up 3%)
  • New Zealand First 6% (up 0.5%)
  • Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%)
  • Act NZ (0.5%, down 0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%)
  • Internet-Mana Party 1.5% (down 1%)
  • Conservative Party of NZ 1% (unchanged)
  • Independent/ Others is 0% (down 0.5%)

More bad news for Labour. Very bad.This suggests that the Fairfax IPSOS poll may not have been an outlier.

Greens get a lift but it’s not much use if Labour sink.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 819 electors from June 30 – July 13, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.


View interactive New Zealand Election charts here

New Zealand Voting Intention Summary

Minor moves in Roy Morgan poll

The latest Roy Morgan poll has minor moves with support levels similar to most other June polls.

  • National (48%, down 1.5%)
  • Labour Party 28% (unchanged)
  • Greens 12% (unchanged)
  • New Zealand First 5.5% (up 1.5%)
  • Internet-Mana Party 2.5% (unchanged)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%)
  • Conservative Party of NZ 1% (down 0.5%)
  • Act NZ (1%, up 0.5%)
  • United Future 0% (unchanged).
  • Independent/ Others 0.5% (down 0.5%).

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 817 electors from June 16-29, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Summary report

New Zealand Voting Intention Summary

PDF Summary


Labour “won’t be terribly unhappy” with 27%

Labour were down 27.3% in the 3 News/Reid Research poll this week, a drop of 2.2%. Former Labour Party president Mike Williams said yesterday “I think the Labour Party won’t be terribly unhappy with that result”.

Really? They should be horrified.

This follows 28% in a Roy Morgan poll and 23% in a Fairfax/IPSOS poll last week, both trending down.

Labour sunk to a record low of 27.48% last election. That they are polling at a similar level now, less than three months out from this year’s election looks terrible for them.

Poll results leading into the last election:

They should be very unhappy.

Williams was interviewed by Guyon Espiner on Radio NZ yesterday in Another poll brings more bad news for Labour:

Espiner: When you and I spoke about this last time you said that if polls continued to show Labour in the earlier to mid twenties then people would start to worry that they could lose their seats, and their could be some issues for the leader. Are we there yet?

Williams: No. No, twenty seven is almost exactly what Labour scored in the last election, so no seats are under threat and the caucus will be relatively quiet. Um, it’s not a great number, but it’s, I think they’ll be breathing a sigh of relief Guyon, because they had a poll, the IPSOS Stuff poll earlier in the week that said they were on twenty three.

Now that is a very dangerous number because then your vote can collapse but twenty seven, twenty eight, I think they’ll be happy about that, particularly given that the capture period was during the Donghau Liu scandal…

There is quite a bit of talk about the risk of Labour’s support collapsing. Polling in the twenties is very risky territory, and some sitting MPs will be getting very uneasy.

Espiner: Really? I mean, I know you’re a glass half full guy on this stuff…

Williams: …you have to be…

Espiner: …but really Mike, I put it to you that twenty seven percent effectively means you can’t lead a government. I mean would it be credible to be the leading partner in a government on that sort of number, even if you could stack it up with all your mates?
Williams: Well it depends on what all the other parties get of course. Then you’ve got to remember that Labour scored twenty seven percent in the last election and were ten thousand votes away from leading the government, so anything’s possible. This is MMP.

Only if Greens, Mana, NZ First, United Future and the Maori Party made governing agreements with Labour. They would have needed substantially more votes to actually have been able to form a workable government.

Espiner: Yeah, but don’t you think these trends, um, I mean you compare it to the Fairfax poll, but if you look at TV3’s last poll, they were at twenty nine I think, and now down to twenty seven, the trend looks to be one way doesn’t it.

Williams: Well, you could also explain that by the capture period, and the capture period appears to be at the worst of the Donghau Liu allegations which of course have all been swept aside now and turned out to be fabrications [they haven't], so honestly overall I think the Labour Party won’t be terribly unhappy with that result, and look upon it as something to build on.

Two days earlier David Cunliffe was talking up Labour’s chances after the release of their party list.

Cunliffe confident Labour will poll in 30s

Labour leader David Cunliffe says his party has “every expectation” of polling well on election day and bringing new MPs into parliament.

Labour unveiled its party list on Monday, but questions have been raised about how many of its candidates would make it in as list MPs, based on current polling.

Support for Labour has been sitting just under 30 per cent across most recent polls.

If current levels of support carry through to the election, Kelvin Davis – ranked number 18 on the list – would just scrape in as a list MP, if he fails to take Te Tai Tokerau from Mana leader Hone Harawira.

None of the party’s new candidates would make it into parliament.

But Mr Cunliffe is confident Labour will poll “well into the 30s” on election day.

The morning after the poll Jacinda Ardern wasn’t looking or sounding terribly happy on Firstline.

Ardern down with poll

Jacinda, those poll ratings are not looking great. Why are they in decline, and can you reverse them, have you got the time?

Ardern: Yeah I mean it’s fair to say we’ve had a rough couple of weeks and I’m not going to argue that those polls are good, we do need to do better, um but I would say that eighty days is still a very long time in politics, and it doesn’t feel to me as if we haven’t had as much time to talk about some of the policies we’ve announced even in recent times, our new tax plan for instance which was only announced this week.

Once we start talking to voters about some of the plans that we have to improve the New Zealand economy, reduce inequality, those are the kinds of ideas that I think will make people start to consider their options.

The problem is Labour has been trying to talk to voters for months. According to some analysts the negative polls are largely due to people moving from ‘Labour’ to ‘undecided’.

Polls could change and trend the other way, but for that to happen Cunliffe and Labour need to be seen to change significantly. What they are doing now is clearly not enthusing voters.

Labour should be terribly unhappy with poll results of 23%, 28% and 27%. And they should be doing something about reversing them. Same old parrot points won’t do it. They have to somehow look competent.

At least one thing may have worked in their favour this week – after political point scoring turned against them they seem to have come to the same realisation as Claire Trevett that Pointscoring politics in danger of boring voters.

These four in particular need to stop boring voters and significantly step up their credibility quotient.


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