Roy Morgan poll – June

The latest Roy Morgan poll has National dropping to a more ‘normal’ level (they were unusually high last month), Greens have probably benefited a bit from James Shaw becoming leader and Labour are stuck in the mid twenties.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

  • National 49.5% (down 4.5)
  • Maori Party 1% (unchanged)
  • ACT 1% (unchanged)
  • United Future (unchanged)
  • Labour 26% (up 0.5)
  • Greens 13% (up 2.5)
  • NZ First 6.5% (up 0.5)
  • Conservative Party 1% (unchanged)
  • Internet/Mana 0% (unchanged)
  • Other 2% (up 1)

5% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.

905 people were polled ‘in June 2015′ they don’t seem to state the polling period dates but normally it would be for two weeks up until last Sunday.

It will barely have taken into account the Conservative meltdown.

National have not had a great few weeks with a number of issues simmering so a fairly normal result close to 50% won’t worry them, even though they dropped significantly from an unusually high result last month.

Greens have bounced back within their usual range.

Labour may be getting anxious, having dropped and then stayed around 26%, close to their embarrassing low election result last year.

Labour since the election: 22.5, 24.0, 27.0, 26.0, 30.0, 31.0, 27.5, 25.5, 26.0



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3 News Poll varies

The latest 3 News/Reid Research poll varies significantly from the last two polls (Roy Morgan and One News/Colmar Brunton), demonstrating why they should be seen as nothing more than indicative snapshots.

  • National 46.4% ( down 3.4)
  • Labour 30.4% (up 1.3)
  • Greens 11.1% (up 1.1)
  • NZ First 8.1% (up 1.1)
  • Conservative Party 1.9%
  • Maori Party 1.1%
  • ACT 0.5%
  • United Future 0%

It’s worth noting that the 3 News/Reid Research poll just prior to the election last September had National down  2.2 to 44.5% and Labour up 4 to 29.1%.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • John Key 39.4% (down 4.6)
  • Andrew Little 11.6% (up 1.8)
  • Winston Peters 11.2% (up 3.6%)

The last 3 News poll was in January so claiming specific reasons have affected the movements (as Patrick Gower did) is nothing more than guesswork.

I’ll add the other results when they are available.

Little change in One News poll

There has been very little change of significance in the latest One News/Colmar Brunton poll.

“If a general election was held today, would you be eligible to vote?”

  • National 48% (-1)
  • Labour 31% (no change)
  • Greens 10% (+1)
  • NZ First 7% (no change)
  • Conservative 2% (no change)
  • Maori Party 1% (no change)


“Thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime Minister?”

  • John Key 44% (+2)
  • Andrew Little 9% (-2)
  • Winston Peters 9% (-1)

“The Government delivered its Budget on Thursday. Thinking about your own personal circumstances, does this Budget leave you better off, about the same, or worse off?”1

  • Better off 4%
  • About the same 72%
  • Worse off 10%

SAMPLE SIZE: n = 1,003 eligible voters.

SAMPLING ERROR: The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5% have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9%-points and ±1.4%-points, respectively, at the 95% confidence level.

Colmar Brunton:


Full report (PDF)

Marijuana legislation poll

Full details have been posted of a ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll on marijuana law preferences.

Which one of the following best describes your view on marijuana laws in New Zealand?:
(Current poll April 2015, movement from October 2003)

Remain the same 21% (down 4%):

  • Marijuana should remain illegal for all uses, as it is now:  21% (down 4%)

Change 77% (up 2%):

  • Marijuana should remain illegal, except in specific medical cases where a patient can be prescribed it to treat pain: 47% (up 11%)
  • Marijuana should be decriminalised so that while it would remain illegal, if someone is caught with a small amount they can be fined but would not receive a criminal record: 21% (down 11%)
  • Marijuana should be legalise: 9% (up 2%)

As has already been said they have combined two separate issues in one poll, perhaps to line it up with the 2003 poll but medical use and recreational use should be looked at as separate issues.

  • The proportion of eligible New Zealand voters favouring legalisation for medical purposes has increased substantially over the last twelve years, up from 36% in 2003 to 47% in 2014.
  • The proportion of eligible New Zealand voters favouring decimalisation has decreased substantially, down
    from 32% in 2003 to 21% in 2014.

That’s a nonsense statement. All the poll shows is that a preference has moved from recreational decriminalisation to medical use. If they were polled separately we get a more4 accurate picture.

Those more likely than average (47%) to favour legalisation for medical purposes:

  • women (55%)
  • those aged 55 years or more (52%).

Those more likely than average (21%) to favour decimalisation are:

  • those living in high income households, with an annual household income over $100,000 (27%)
  • Green Party supporters (36%).

Those more likely than average (9%) say marijuana should be legalised are:

  • Green Party supporters (20%).

Source (PDF)

If medical cannabis is effective Dunne will back it

One News finally got their medical cannabis report on air on Saturday (from news and interviews gathered on Wednesday).

Medicinal marijuana: If it’s effective Peter Dunne will back it

A group called United in Compassion which wants more trials of medicinal marijuana has met with Mr Dunne to discuss the issue and the ONE News Colmar Brunton poll also backs them.

Nearly half (47%) say marijuana should be legal for medical cases while 21% say it should remain illegal. But just 9% believe marijuana should be legalised for recreational use with 21% saying possession of a small amount should only incur a fine and no criminal conviction.

“I think fundamentally people have some real compassion for people who are suffering who could benefit from the medicinal properties of cannabis,” Drug Foundation chief executive Ross Bell says.

The Government is currently reviewing national drug policy and laws and while Mr Dunne won’t support legalising recreational use he is taking a wait and see approach on medicinal marijuana.

He wants proof of extensive, approved testing processes and says it depends entirely on whether it’s effective.

Like any drug it should be proven effective and relatively safe.

The pool looks poorly done, combining two issues in one response. But playing that game if if you add up the numbers:

  • 77% think marijuana should be legal for medical cases, should be legalised for recreational use, or should only incur a fine and no criminal conviction.
  • 21% say it should remain illegal

This One News item follows up a ‘pre-news’ item on Friday – Should medicinal marijuana become more available in New Zealand?

See a post on that –  Poll supports medical cannabis, Dunne considering

Poll supports medical cannabis, Dunne considering

A ONE News/Colmar Brunton poll shows public support for medical cannabis and Associate Health Minister Peter Dunne says “he’s open to more medicinal products being available if they undergo a comprehensive testing regime”

Should medicinal marijuana become more available in New Zealand?

The poll:

  • 47% think marijuana should be legal for medical cases
  • Nearly a quarter say it should remain illegal

So that’s twice as many think it should be legal.

  • 21% say possession of a small amount should only incur a fine and no criminal conviction
  • 9% believe marijuana should be legalised for general use

It’s not clear if they are part of one poll but the numbers suggest they are. It’s odd to pool two separate issues like that.

If so that would mean 68% think marijuana should be legal for medical cases or possession of a small amount should only incur a fine and no criminal conviction.

One News reports:

Mr Dunne says if products are “shown as a result of the normal testing programme to be fit for purpose” then he’ll permit them to be made available here.

“It depends entirely on whether it is credible, I don’t think the notion of just puffing a few joints in your backyard is credible.”

Dunne had a meeting with Toni Marie Matich, a representative of United in Compassion NZ:

Matich has a teenage daughter with a rare form of epilepsy that sees her suffer multiple seizures and says she would benefit from medicinal marijuana.

“I feel a lot of the general public, if they had a child as sick as mine, they would do anything they could to try and make their child better,” she told One News.

She’s set up an organisation called United in Compassion, which is linked to the Australian version, and met with Mr Dunne this week to discuss the way forward.

“It isn’t an overnight thing that’s going to happen, it’s going to take a long time, but I feel as a small country we have the ability to catch up with the rest of the world.”

She says more products are needed to help people with a range of illnesses

United In Compassion is a non profit lobby for the re-introduction of medicinal cannabis and a community for patients and carers. There is a similar group in Australia:

Three states in Australia are currently working together investigating the use of medical cannabis – see Queensland and Victoria join New South Wales on medical cannabis trials.

UPDATE: The poll results are unclear in the news report, I’ve asked Colmar Brunton and they have said they will put the results up on their website on Monday.

Majority support euthanasia – poll

Research New Zealand published the results of a poll in euthanasia last month that show a clear majority support doctor assisted euthanasia but more evenly split for relative assisted euthanasia.

In order to gauge public opinion and support for the legalisation of euthanasia, we decided to conduct a poll with a nationally representative sample of adult New Zealanders between March and April 2015. For this poll we decided to use exactly the same question wording that a Department of Marketing, Massey University survey used in 2008.

Q1. Suppose a person has a painful incurable diseas e. Do you think that doctors should be allowed by law to end the patient’s life if the patient requests it?

  • Yes 74%
  • No 20%
  • Don’t know 6%
  • Don’t care 0%

Male 72% yes, female 75%.

The 55+ age group was 70% yes, the rest were 76% yes.

2008 Massey University result – 70% agreed

Q2. Still thinking of that person with a painful in curable disease, do you think that someone else, like a close relative, should be allowed by law to help end the patient’s life, if the patient requests it?

  • Yes 51%
  • No 41%
  • Don’t know 9%
  • Don’t care 0%

Male 54%, female 48% yes

18-34 60%, 35-54 54%, 55+ age 39% yes.

2008 Massey University result – 52% agreed

Unweighted base = 500 – margin of error for that sample size:

  • 40%-60%:  ±4.5
  • 25% or 75%:  ±3.9
  • 10% or 90%: ±2.7
  • 5% or 95%: ±1.9

Details (PDF)

Where’s Andy?

Where’s Andrew Little?

The latest (Herald-Digipoll) poll has Labour stagnant on 28.7% (-0.2) and Little stagnant as preferred PM on Andrew Little 13.9% (+0.3).

Notably Winston Peters jumped from 6% to 12% in that poll.

Little chose to virtually withdraw Labour’s candidate in Northland and he kept a low profile himself. He virtually handed the Leader of the Opposition baton to Peters.

And Little has been hardly seen since. The Easter break didn’t help but that was the same for all parties and all leaders.

Little is travelling overseas, having been spotted at Gallipoli by Cameron Slater.

At about 1930 Andrew Little moved through the crowd and I called out to him and had a chat for about 10 minutes. We stayed away from politics and it was polite and convivial…until Neale Jones his EPMU staffer turned up. I was about to get a photo taken with Little and he had agreed to it, we agreed to terms of using it also.

But Neale Jones interceded and dragged Little away. Any respect I had for the man was lost right there as he let his staff dictate to him what he could and couldn’t do. In the end I watch as Little stood around with no one really talking to him, then Neale Jones recorded a video of Little making a small speech.

I got the impression that Andrew Little really is socially awkward. Still he had the stones to come up and talk to me in front of everyone which more than I can say for John Key.

No publicity might be better than publicity with Slater, but barely.

Little has said that this year he’s concentrating on getting around the country (and around the world) to meet as many people as he can and acknowledges that won’t do much to boost his mainstream media profile.

But there’s a real risk he will lose traction that won’t be easily regained.

Once the voting public has lost sight of Little in the political crowd it might be difficult being seen.

Standard poll reaction – the people are comatose

Reaction from the Labour left to the latest poll is blaming people for being asleep, to the extent of a comatose conspiracy.

Last week’s One News Colmar Brunton poll suggests that little has changed in national support:

  • National 49%
  • Labour 31%
  • Greens 9% (down 1)
  • NZ First 7% (up 1)

So after all the hype and hope after Northland Labour and the Greens have gained nothing – which shouldn’t be surprising, they sought nothing in Northland and have been quiet politically since..

Initial reaction to the poll at The Standard last night, first from Anne:

Have you noticed ianmac there has been virtually no political news since the byelection? The MSM has gone dead quiet. To my knowledge Andrew Little has only been ‘allowed’ one spot on the 6pm TV news since that time. Nobody from the Greens have had a look in.. to anything.

Out of sight and out of mind? I think so.

Political news from all parties was quiet over the polling period with the Easter break dominating. But Anne’s knowledge is deficient. Looking at One News:

Andrew Little featured in all of those items. The polling period was 11-15 April.

‘Paul’ can’t believe the country doesn’t notice something.

So NZ is still sound asleep.

So Anne plays the grand conspiracy card:

They are now in a politically comatose state – as planned.

That card is well worn. The Joker isn’t worth anything in this game.

And this morning ‘Notices and Features’ (the author that doesn’t want to be known as an author) has posted:

No significant changes in yesterdays TV1 / Colmar Brunton poll, with National unchanged on 49%, Labour unchanged on 31%, and all changes within the margin of error.

Certain Nats have started counting their chickens for a fourth term!

Yes, there’s a bit of that at Kiwiblog in comments on Latest poll. But looking at opponents is ignoring one’s own predicament.

And Paul continues his disbelief here:

Northland bridges.
International Milk prices.
Housing bubbles
Child Poverty
The attack on Campbell Live
Clear and present warnings from economists that NZ’s economy is vulnerable.

And 49% of NZ is still sound asleep.

It’s the people’s fault. If only they would wake up and see how awful National are and marvellous the Labour-Green-NZ First fantasy is.

Whateva next?

It is, and I don’t believe that 49% of the country akshully think that National are any good.
questions can be asked to produce desired answers, just like Key can find a lawyer or a scientist to say whatever he wants.

Questions like “If a general election was held today, would you be eligible to vote?” – whatever next, perhaps wanting a question like “Do you support the fantastic Labour Party over the lying corrupt National Party?

But Paul seems to think it’s Colmar Brunton who are lying and corrupt:

Maybe they just ask property owning Aucklanders, with good savings and therefore no reliance on a thriving NZ economy. These same people must also be either unaware or don’t care about the rest of the issues mentioned.

And Sanctuary tries facts…

Time to face facts – we’ve psychologically become a third world country, where the top half of the population dominates the media and has given up even caring about the bottom half, and the bottom half have slipped into invisibility and inertia.

…with no evidence of any actual facts.

It takes a righty to suggest reality – Matthew Hooton:

For a govt to change, the incumbent needs to look arrogant, dodgy, corrupt, out of touch, out of ideas, or a combination of these; and the challenger needs to look attractive and competent.

National is doing it’s bit for a change of govt even if Labour is not!

The degree of disillusionment, despondency and dissing at the Labour left Standard does the opposite of making the challenger look attractive and competent.

RSA reponse to criticism of their flag campaign

The RSA are confident they have ” the NZ public behind us” in their campaign to retain the current New Zealand flag – but not confident enough to risk the people actually deciding via a sound democratic process. After posting RSA opposes flag change, opposes democratic process I tweeted:

Sad to see @RSA_National actively campaigning against democratic process.

The RSA responded:

We’re all for democratic discussion. We think Govt should hold 1 referendum to ask NZ if they want a change.

They want one referendum because they think that will get them the result they want. Fair enough. But why do they not want to explore possible alternatives to the flag and give people a choice between the best of the rest and the current flag? Presumably because they don’t want change. They want to minimise choice to improve the chances of retaining what they want. I also tweeted:

And unless it can be substantiated claiming just “one or two” in the @RSA_National support flag change insults members.

@RSA_National responded:

Sorry – not our intent. But we are confident we have the support of our membership and the NZ public behind us.

Being ‘confident’ is not any sort of measure. They haven’t offered any substantiation. I replied:

I don’t know how you can claim the support of the public. By what measure?

They haven’t responded. But someone else did. @SarahRoseNZ:

Poll ’14 72%!= No @Yahoo 10,000 voted last month 77% = No! Any ?’s Pete #NZFlag

When I asked how current the Colmar Brunton poll was she said:

Jan last year= no. Don’t shoot messenger. MOST NZ’rs say NO FLAG CHANGE! #NZFlag

That’s over a year ago. I’m sure there will be more polls. And there should be a couple of referendums. I also asked if the Yahoo poll was scientific. No response to that. Some questions for those who don’t want a flag change and who claim that there is strong public support to retain the current flag.

  • What do you fear from exploring possible flag alternatives?
  • What do you fear from having a referendum to let people choose between the current flag and the best of the rest?

If you support the democratic process and you’re confident your choice has overwhelming public support you should be happy with the two referendum process. If you are right that will prove public support is on your side and it is likely to lock in the current flag for the foreseeable future. That would be a win-win for you.

What’s the problem?

Deciding whether to change the flag without knowing what the alternative is would be like deciding to get married without knowing who to.


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