Don Brash’s Orewa speech on 27 January 2004:
The Orewa Speech was a speech delivered by the then-leader of the New Zealand National Party Don Brash to the Orewa Rotary Club on 27 January 2004. It addressed the theme of race relations in New Zealand and in particular the special status of Māori people. Brash approached the once-taboo subject by advocating ‘one rule for all' and ending what he saw as the Māori’s special privileges
The speech was criticised not so much for its substance but for a perceived political intent behind it. It was widely claimed that Brash was “playing the race card”, winning support for his party by fuelling racist sentiment toward Māoridom.
The poll reaction – National up 17% to 45% two weeks later:bull
The year’s first Colmar-Brunton poll puts National at 45 per cent, seven points ahead of Labour.
That is a 17-point jump for National since December last year.
Don Brash is still 10 points behind Helen Clark as preferred leader but he has risen 11 points to 24 per cent.
Don Brash said it was because of his stance on race relations.
– NZ Herald
Phil Twyford’s bull in a China shock 11 July 2015:
Tell us this new data. Tell us exactly what it shows.
So this data is the comprehensive sales record from a major Auckland real estate firm. It includes about 4000 individual records. It’s every house sold in the Auckland region over that three-month period.
What it shows, I think, is striking. Nearly 40% of the houses sold in that period went to people of Chinese descent, and as your introduction pointed out, the Chinese New Zealander population in Auckland, according to the most recent census data, is about 9%.
Now, that is a remarkable discrepancy, and, in my view, it’s simply not plausible to suggest, as many have done in the last couple of years, that the Chinese— ethnic Chinese people who are buying houses in Auckland are all Chinese New Zealanders.
It points, I think, to only one possible conclusion, and that is that offshore Chinese investors have a very significant presence in the Auckland real estate market when you consider that Auckland house prices are spiralling out of control at the moment. They went up on average by about $74,000 in the last three months.
Property speculation is rampant, and I believe on the strength of these numbers that offshore Chinese investors are a very significant part of what’s going on.
But here’s the problem, isn’t it, this analysis, your conclusions are based on surnames, aren’t they?
Yes, they are, and the statistical modelling that we did with this data basically attributes probability against each surname, as the surname predicts ethnic origin.
And if you look at these names, take, for example, the name Wang – W-A-N-G. Under the modelling we did, that has something like a 95% probability that that person is of Chinese descent. Take the name Lee – L-E-E. That has about a 40% probability that the person is Chinese.
So that’s how it’s done. We believe that it’s about 95% accurate, and it certainly points to a very strong conclusion.
At best that conclusion was made up and it may be quite wrong – see Who’s buying Auckland property?.
The poll reaction:
One News/Colmar Brunton poll for July 2015 – polling period Saturday 11th (Twyford Saturday) to Wednesday 15 July.
- National 47% (down 1)
- Labour 32% (up 1)
- Greens 13% (up 3)
- NZ First 7% (up 1)
A margin of error movement for both Labour and National. Some predicted Labour would score support off NZ First but no sign of that.
This is early for any poll changes to show but there certainly doesn’t look like any Orewa sized pool boost for Labour yet, and National seemed to pick up substantial support almost immediately.
This isn’t surprising, right wing racist dogwhistle reaction is probably quite different to left wing racist dogwhistle reaction (and it should be).