Labour, National up in One News poll

In the first One News/Colmar Brunton poll of the year Labour are up six to 31% and National are up four to 49% – this is a similar result to they recent Roy Morganl.

  • National 49% (up 4)
  • Labour 31% (up 6)
  • Greens 10% (down 2)
  • NZ First 6 (6% (down 2)
  • Maori Party 2% (no change)
  • Conservatives 1% (down 3)
  • Refused to answer 3% (down 2)
  • Undecided 7% (up 2)

Those results are round to the nearest percent so aren’t very accurate for the smaller parties.

Polling was done over 14-18 February so covers only a small part of the difficult week for Andrew Little.

Poll link.

This week’s Roy Morgan results were very similar:

  • National 49%
  • Labour Party 30%
  • Greens 12%
  • NZ First 6%
  • Conservative Party1.5%
  • Maori Party 1.0%

Colmar Brunton Preferred Prime Minister:

  • John Key 41% (down 2)
  • Andrew Little 12% (first result)
  • Winston Peters 7% (up 2)

Labour up, National down in Roy Morgan poll

The latest Roy Morgan poll:

  • National 49% (down 3%)
  • Maori Party 1.0% (down 0.5%)
  • Act NZ 0% (down 1%)
  • United Future 0% (unchanged)
  • Labour Party 30% (up 4% - their highest level of support since July 2014)
  • Greens 12% (up 1%)
  • NZ First 6% (unchanged)
  • Conservative Party1.5% (down 0.5%)
  • Internet-Mana Party 0% (unchanged)
  • Independent/ Others 0.5% (unchanged).

This poll was held on February 2-15 (the previous one was (January 5-18, 2015) – most of the polling will have been done during John Key’s awful week last week and before Andrew Little’s awful week this week.

Labour will be hoping this recovery trend continues. If they’re lucky their hiccups this week will be forgotten by the next polling period.

RoyMorgan2015February2-15

And Government confidence is down.

Coinciding with the decrease in support for the Government the latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen significantly to 124pts (down 20pts). This is the lowest the NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has been since October 2013.

Coinciding with the decrease in support for the Government the latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen significantly to 124pts (down 20pts). This is the lowest the NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has been since October 2013.

Roy Morgan includes good ‘margin of error’ information:

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40%-60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
500 ±4.5 ±3.9 ±2.7 ±1.9
1,000 ±3.2 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.4
1,500 ±2.6 ±2.2 ±1.5 ±1.1
2,000 ±2.2 ±1.9 ±1.3 ±1.0

The Roy Morgan sample size this poll was 891.

“The Greens will have their worry beads out”

Russel Norman stepping down as co-leader poses a new challenge for the Greens, especially if Metiria Turei becomes more dominant as she has leas broad appeal.

And according to Patrick Gower the Greens have another worry from the latest 3 News poll:

Gower said the latest polls would shock a couple of parties.

“The Greens will have their worry beads out.”

Results will be tonight on 3 News. The polling will presumably have been done before Norman announced he will be stepping down.

The new Green co-leader won’t be chosen until May. That leaves a co-vacuum until then, as Norman is likely to leave more of the leader’s duties to Turei.

Leadership transition is always an uncertain time for a party, and a long lead-in until the new leader takes over won’t help.

Little rated against Key

NZ Herald reports on a 3 News/Reid Research poll (I can’t find it on the 3 News site) and asks Has Key met his match?

A 3 News Reid-Research poll has revealed 55 per cent of voters think Little is potentially a better match for Prime Minister John Key than his Labour Party leader predecessors.

3 News political editor Patrick Gower said the poll result was a huge boost for Little.

“It means more than half of voters think he can do a better job than Phil Goff, David Shearer or David Cunliffe,” Gower said.

“And the fact that it’s over half shows it’s well and truly beyond the people who vote for Labour normally and into centre voters and probably some National voters as well.”

It’s too soon to tell, and Labour’s recovery will take more than Little to step up a few notches, but this poll result looks promising for Little’s prospects.

Little said the poll result was “nice” but he wouldn’t be taking any false hope from it.

“Things like this kind of go up and down. You’re in favour and you’re out of favour … it’s nice to have the kind of start that I’ve had. But we’ve got a long way to go yet and a lot of work to do so I’m focused on that.”

Little sounds realistic about where he’s at now.

A Key spokeswoman last night told the Herald on Sunday: “The Prime Minister never underestimates any leader of the Opposition.”

There’s signs that National is very wary of Little. That’s good, it will keep them on their toes.

So this is promising for Little but more important for Labour will be the party poll result, which will be revealed on 3 New tonight at 6 pm.

National up in silly season poll

The latest Roy Morgan poll is of minor interest but I wouldn’t bet the year on it – National up to 52%, they same as they were mid-last year.

  • National 52% (up 6% since November 24-December 7, 2014)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (down 0.5%)
  • Act NZ 1% (down 0.5%)
  • United Future  0% (unchanged)
  • Labour Party 26% (down 1%)
  • Greens 11% (down 1%)
  • NZ First 6% (down 1%

Apart from National hey are insignificant changes especially for this time of year.

  • Conservative Party of NZ 2% (down 0.5%)
  • Internet-Mana Party alliance 0% (down 1%)
  • Independent/ Others 0.5% (down 0.5%)

Internet-Mana down to 8% is one of the more notable results. The Internet Party seems doomed but Mana has been dragged right down with them.

Source: National surges in 2015 – Biggest lead since September 2014 NZ Election

RoyMorgan2015-1

First post election poll

Roy Morgan has resumed polling. Results are less significant than usual.

  • National 43.5% (down 3.54% since the election)
  • Maori Party 2% (up 0.68%)
  • Act NZ 0.5% (down 0.19%)
  • United Future 0.5% (up 0.28%)
  • Labour Party 22.5% (down 2.63%)
  • Greens 17.5% (up 6.8%)
  • NZ First 7% (down 1.66%)
  • Conservative Party 5% (up 1.03%
  • Internet-Mana Party 1% (down 0.42%)
  • Independent/ Others 0.5% (down 0.35%

Roy Morgan says ” National support has dropped after each of John Key’s Election victories” and it won’t worry them too much at this stage of the election cycle.

Labour will be hoping that their leadership contest will raise their profile and win some support back.

Greens and Conservatives may be rueful that the poll wasn’t reflected in the election result, otherwise there is nothing remarkable.

Poll compared to election results this century:

RoyMorgan2014-10-17 tableChart of results since the 2011 election.

RoyMorgan2014-10-17 chart

Roy Morgan results.

Final poll results – table

All five pollsters have released their final week results, with results narrowing.

Election 2014 final poll results

Notes:

  • Polls ask “If an election was held today who would you vote for?”, they don’t try to predict election day voting.
  • It is common for movements in support late in campaigns due to tactical voting and undecideds deciding.
  • If ACT and United Future win electorates they may add more to seats than their share of vote.
  • If the Maori Party hold all three seats they will get more than their vote share. If they hold two seats they will be about proportional to their party vote according to the poll average.
  • If Conservatives don’t make the 5% threshold the other parties will increase their % share of seats.
  • If Hone Harawira loses Te Tai Tokerau Internet-Mana will not get any seats and their party vote will be ‘wasted’.
  • In 2011 National got 47.31% and with ACT and United Future seats were just able to make a majority.

Most of this polling will have occurred before Monday night’s “The Moment of Truth” meeting. NZ Herald recorded before and after results:

With 60 per cent of the poll done by Monday night, when the event happened, National was polling at 47.8 per cent, down on last week, said DigiPoll general manager Nandan Modak. From Tuesday it jumped to 49.1 per cent.

But I asked Andrew from Colmar brunton if he’d seen any change and he responded:

Was looking the whole time, even during.

Impossible to tell if any impact, with any degree of certainly.

I saw no increase for National compared to first two days, but it’s not that simple, as party support differs by day normally.

– @Unimatrix_0

Colmar Brunton explain ‘margin of error”:

The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5% have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9% points and ±1.4% points respectively, at the 95% confidence level.

See full final results – Final pre-election poll results

See also Coalition possibilities many and varied

Final pre-election poll results

All five polls have been published in the final week of the election campaign.

Stuff/IPSOS
No polling period given, poll date 17 September

  • National 47.7% (-5.1)
  • Labour 26.1% (+3.7))
  • Greens 12.0% (-1.0)
  • New Zealand First 6.6% (+2.2)
  • Conservative Party 4.5% (+0.9)
  • Maori Party 1.0% (+0.7)
  • Internet-Mana Party 0.9% (-0.5)
  • Act NZ 0.3% (-0.4)
  • United Future 0 (no change)

Poll results and poll report: Tight race ahead for Key and Cunliffe

Our poll provides a maximum sampling error of +/-3.1%-point, at the 95% confidence level. This means we can be 95% confident that the survey results are within 3.1% of the result had we surveyed the entire population of the NZ population, when the analysis is based on all respondents surveyed.

One News/Colmar Brunton
13-17 September

  • National 45.1% (-1)
  • Labour 25.2% no change)
  • Greens 12.5% (-2)
  • New Zealand First 8.1% (+1)
  • Conservative Party 4.4% (+0.4)
  • Maori Party 1.6% (+0.8)
  • Internet-Mana Party 1.8% (+0.4)
  • Act NZ 0.6%
  • United Future 0

Summary and Detailed Report (PDF)

The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5% have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9% points and ±1.4% points respectively, at the 95% confidence level.

NZ Herald/Digipoll
11-17 September

  • National 48.2% (-0.4)
  • Labour 25.9% (+1.3)
  • Green 11.1% (-0.4)
  • NZ First 8.4% (+0.3)
  • Conservatives 3.3% (-0.5)
  • Internet-Mana 1.0% (-1.3)
  • Maori 1.1% (+0.4)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.2)
  • UnitedFuture O.2% (+0.2)

Pre-poll report: DigiPoll: Conservatives fail to make 5 per cent threshold – again

Poll report: Moment of Truth gifts Team Key a late bounce in polls

The poll of 775 eligible voters was conducted between September 11 – 17 The Party Vote is of decided voters only. Undecided voters were 5.6 per cent. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 per cent.

“The Moment of truth” split:

The Kim Dotcom-inspired event in Auckland’s Town Hall that was supposed to end John Key’s career gave the National Party an immediate bounce in support this week, according to polling for the last Herald DigiPoll survey.

With 60 per cent of the poll done by Monday night, when the event happened, National was polling at 47.8 per cent, down on last week, said DigiPoll general manager Nandan Modak. From Tuesday it jumped to 49.1 per cent.

3 News/Reid Research
September 9-15

  • National 44.5% (-2.2)
  • Labour 25.6% (-0.5)
  • Greens 14.4% (+1.4)
  • New Zealand First 7.1% (+1.2)
  • Conservative Party 4.9% (+0.2)
  • Maori Party 1.1% (-0.2)
  • Internet-Mana Party 2.0% (0.3)
  • Act NZ 0.1% (-0.2)
  • United Future 0.1%

Report: Poll: Winston holds balance of power
(it’s far to close to call specific outcomes with Conservatives on 4.9% which is teetering either way)

Poll of 1000 voters was taken between September 9 and 15 with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent. 

Result table: http://www.reidresearch.co.nz/TV3+POLL+RESULTS.html

Roy Morgan:
September 1-14

  • National 46.5% (+1.5)
  • Labour 24.0% (-2.0)
  • Greens 13.5% (-2.5)
  • New Zealand First 8.0% (+2.0)
  • Conservative Party 3.5% (no change)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (+ 1.0)
  • Internet-Mana Party 1.0% (no change)
  • Act NZ 0.5% (-0.5)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5)
  • Independent/ Others 1.0% (no change)

Roy Morgan rounds to the nearest 0.5%

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 935 electors from September 1-14, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5% (up 1.5%) didn’t name a party.

Five Poll Summary

Polls are coming out thick and fast leading up to the election showing quite a bit of variability.

Here are the latest results for each party.

National

  • Roy Morgan 45% (-0.3)
  • 3 News/Reid Research 46.4% (+1.4)
  • Stuff/IPSOS 54.2% (+3.4)
  • NZ Herald/Digipoll 50.1% (-0.6)
  • One News/Colmar Brunton 50% (+2)

Labour

  • Roy Morgan 26% (-1.5)
  • 3 News/Reid Research 25.9% (-0.5)
  • Stuff/IPSOS 24.3% (-1.8)
  • NZ Herald/Digipoll 23.8% (-0.3)
  • One News/Colmar Brunton 26% (-2)

Greens

  • Roy Morgan 16% (+4.5)
  • 3 News/Reid Research 12.6% ()-0.9)
  • Stuff/IPSOS 12.9% (+1.1)
  • NZ Herald/Digipoll 11.4% (n/c)
  • One News/Colmar Brunton 11% (-1)

NZ First

  • Roy Morgan 6% (-0.5)
  • 3 News/Reid Research 5.8% (-0.5)
  • Stuff/IPSOS 3.6% (-0.4)
  • NZ Herald/Digipoll 6.0% (+1.0)
  • One News/Colmar Brunton 7% (+1)

Conservative Party

  • Roy Morgan 3.5% (+2.5)
  • 3 News/Reid Research 4.2% (-0.4)
  • Stuff/IPSOS 2.4% (-0.3)
  • NZ Herald/Digipoll 3.8% (+0.5)
  • One News/Colmar Brunton 3% (n/c)

Internet-Mana

  • Roy Morgan 1% (-1.5)
  • 3 News/Reid Research 1.7% (-0.4)
  • Stuff/IPSOS 1.3% (-0.9)
  • NZ Herald/Digipoll 3.5% (+0.1)
  • One News/Colmar Brunton 2% (n/c)

Maori Party

  • Roy Morgan 0.5% (-0.5)
  • 3 News/Reid Research 2.0 (+1.3)
  • Stuff/IPSOS 0.3% (-0.4)
  • NZ Herald/Digipoll 0.4% (-0.6)
  • One News/Colmar Brunton <0.5%

ACT Party

  • Roy Morgan 1% (+0.5)
  • 3 News/Reid Research 0.6% (+0.3)
  • Stuff/IPSOS 0.2% (-0.5)
  • NZ Herald/Digipoll 0.4% (+0.1)
  • One News/Colmar Brunton <0.5

UnitedFuture

  • Roy Morgan 0% (-0.5)
  • 3 News/Reid Research 0.1% (-0.3)
  • Stuff/IPSOS 0.1% (n/c)
  • NZ Herald/Digipoll 0.3% (+0.1)
  • One News/Colmar Brunton <0.5

Polling periods vary but are ordered oldest to latest.

Rounding:
- Roy Morgan rounds to the nearest 0.5
- One News/Colmar Brunton rounds to the nearest whole number so parties not included are <0.5%

Roy Morgan poll two weekly, the others are currently polling weekly.

Updated 5/8/14 with latest One News/Colmar poll.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bad poll for National, Labour

The latest Roy Morgan poll has both National and Labour down into worrying territory with Greens and Conservatives being upwards movers:

  • National 45% (down 3%)
  • Greens 16% (up 4.5%)
  • Labour 26% (down 1.5%)
  • Maori Party 0.5% (down 0.5%)
  • Act NZ (1%, up 0.5%)
  • United Future 0% (down 0.5%)
  • NZ First 6% (down 0.5%)
  • Internet-Mana Party 1% (down 1.5%)
  • Conservative Party of NZ 3.5% (up 2.5%)
  • Independent/ Others is 1% (unchanged)

3% isn’t a huge move but 45% is into real worry territory for National, especially if it’s part of a downwards trend.

Labour appear to be either also tainted by Dirty Politics or just seen as crap. Greens are finally benefiting with their best result ever.

Internet-Mana seem to have lost traction while Conservatives are on the rise.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 762 electors from August 18-31, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 3.5% (down 3%) didn’t name a party.

Results: http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5767-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-september-3-2014-201409030312

PDF including table of results

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