UMR flag poll – August 2015

UMR did a poll of the final forty flag designs. This suggests that the Flag Panel are folowing public opinion with their final four choices.

UMRFlagAugust1

UMRFlagAugust2

So it looks like the Panel has taken nore of public preferences.

UMRFlagAugust3Considering that until recently a significant percentage were against flag change this suggests the top choices are seen as reasonably acceptable and popular.

Methodology:

  • Results in this report are from the monthly UMR Online Omnibus survey. The survey is a nationally representative sample of 1000 New Zealanders, 18 years of age and over.
  • The survey was conducted from 25th to 31st August 2015.
  • The sample size of n=1000, has a margin of error for a 50% figure at the 95% confidence level of ± 3.1%.

Source: UMR flag referendum August 2015

Final four flags – online polls

The first flaf referendum will be to choose from the final four alternative flag desigs, but online polls run since the final four were released yesterday also included the current flag.

The four alternative flag designs

NZ Herald:

Which flag design do you like?

  • Silver Fern (Black, White and Blue) by Kyle Lockwood 32%
  • The original flag 28%
  • Silver Fern (Red, White and Blue) by Kyle Lockwood 21%
  • Silver Fern (Black & White) by Alofi Kanter 6%
  • Koru by Andrew Fyfe 4%
  • None of the above 9%

15500–15550 votes

Stuff:

Which flag do you prefer?

  • Keep the current flag (5759 votes) 39%
  • Silver Fern (Black, White and Blue) – Kyle Lockwood (4085 votes) 27%
  • Silver Fern (Red, White and Blue) – Kyle Lockwood (3436 votes) 23%
  • Black and White Fern – Alofi Kanter (893 votes) 6%
  • Koru – Andrew Fyfe (705 votes) 5%

3 News:

Which alternative Z flag design do you prefer?

  • Existing NZ flag (4989 votes) 52%
  • Kyle Lockwood’s Silver fern black and blue (2305 votes) 24%
  • Kyle Lockwood’s Silver fern red and blue (1313 votes) 14%
  • Alofi Kanter’s Silver fern black and white (625 votes) 6%
  • Black Koru (428 votes) 4%

Online polls are indicative only as they are self selecting non-scientific polls but thse give an indication of current levels of support for the alternatives and for retaining thje current flag.

Opinion is obviously quite divided and variable at this stage.

Poll on Trans Pacific Partership

A Herald Digipoll shows that while there’s hard core opposition to the Trans Pacific Partnership most people (67.9%) either support the principle of a TPP or don’t know enough about it yet to decide.

TPP

NZ is one of the 12 countries negotiating a free trade deal called the Trans Pacific Partnership. Without yet knowing it’s details, which of the following best fits your general impression?

  • I support it on the basis that Z’s economic well-being depends on increased trade in the world:  22.9%
  • I oppose it on the basis of what I’ve heard about disputes between companies and Government being settled by private tribunals: 33.1%
  • I don’t know enough to form any view: 45.0%
  • Don’t know/refuse: 0.8%

Herald-Digipoll August 14 to 24. Sample size 750. Margin of error 3.6%

It looks like outside ideologiogical support/opposition public opinion is prepared to wait to see agreement might be reached  before taking a stance.

Source: Herald-Digipoll

Ardern one of favoured Little replacements

Jacinda Ardern is one of the more favoured relacements should Andrew Little step down from the Labour leadership, but NZ Herald talks her up more than us justified in Jacinda Ardern’s star still rising.

They have publisghed two poll resuo\lts:

Preferred Prime Minister

John Key 63.7 (down 0.9)
Andrew Little 13.3 (down 0.6)
Winston Peters 11.6 (down 0.4)
Jacinda Ardern 3.9 (up 3.4)
Helen Clark 2.6 (up 1.6)
Metiria Turei 0.9 (up 0.6)
James Shaw 0.6 (up 0.6)

Ardern has jumped up there but she’s not far ahead of the margin of error for Helen Clark.

Q: If Andrew Little were to step down as Labour leader during this term, who do you think would his best replacements as Opposition leader?

Annette King 21.8
Jacinda Ardern 20.1
Grant Robertson 18.0
Phil Twyford 4.0
None of the above 10.5
Don’t know/ refused 25.7

That doesn’t look good for Labour.

King is one of their most respected MPs, was deputy leader under Phill Goff, is currently deputy leader, and has been stand in leader during last year’s leadership contest, but she can hardly be seen seriously as a leader of the future.

That Ardern and Grant Robertson come close behind with over a third (36.2%) ‘none’ or ‘don’t know/refused’ might suggest Little’s leadership is secure but it doesn’t look great for alternatives.

Ardern has shown no sign of being ready to step up to lreadership type responsibilites and Robertson is a multiple failure in leadership contests.

The poll of 750 eligible voters was conducted between August 14 – 24.

Trumped by Democrats

Donald Trump for President? Perhaps in America it could happen but it looks more like he will disrupt the Republican chances.

Trump is the leading Republican contender in polls but also the most opposed. And he lags behind all the leading Democrats in the latest Quinnipiac poll.

Favourability ratings (all voters):

  • Donald Trump 27 – 59
  • Hillary Clinton 40 – 51
  • Jeb Bush 43 – 42
  • Scott Walker 36 – 27
  • Joe Biden 49 – 37
  • Bernie Sanders 32 – 25

Republican voters for:

  • Donald Trump 20%
  • Scott Walker 13%
  • Jeb Bush 10%

Republican voters “would definitely not support”:

  • Donald Trump 30%
  • Chris Cristie 15%
  • Jeb Bush 14%

Jeb, the third Bush to try for the presidency, looks to be battling too.

Hillary Clinton also tops both the for and against but on quite different levels to Trump:

Democrat voters for:

  • Hillary Clinton 55%
  • Bernie Sanders 17%
  • Joe Biden 13%

Democrat voters “would definitely not support”:

  • Hillary Clinton 9%
  • Martin O’Malley 8%
  • Lincoln Chafee 8%

Match-ups (all voters) are interesting:

  • Clinton versus Trump 48% – 36%
  • Clinton versus Bush 41% – 42%
  • Clinton versus Walker 44% – 43%

I’m surprised Joe Biden is a serious contender but:

  • Biden versus Trump 49% – 37%
  • Biden versus Bush 43% – 42%
  • Biden versus Walker 43% – 43%

It’s only fifteen months and about 15 billion polls and dollars until the US election.

Two polls strongly support euthanasia

Both One News and Three News have done polls on euthanasia with strong support for changing the law and allowing euthanasia.

One News/Colmar Brunton:

Should a patient should be able to request a doctor’s assistance to end their life?

  • Yes 75%
  • No 21%
  • Undecided 5%

1000 voters questioned

3 News/Reid Research

Should law be changed to allow “assisted dying” or euthanasia?

  • Yes 71%
  • No 24%
  • Unsure 5%

Patrick Gower asked John Key if the Government would heed public opinion and do something about it. Key said they wouldn’t, but if a well drafted Member’s Bill was put before parliament he said he would support it.

The chances of a Member’s Bill being drawn is low – ad at this stage there isn’t a Bill in the ballot anyway.

One News had a report with their poll result: Lecretia Seales’ widower praises Kiwis for poll showing support for doctor assisted euthanasia

Lecretia Seales’ widower Matt Vickers is welcoming a ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll which shows the majority of New Zealanders want dying patients to be able to rely on their doctor for help to end their lives.

“We’re glad to see that New Zealanders agree that it is appropriate, respectful and compassionate, and we hope that Parliament does their job and achieves legislative change that the majority of New Zealanders clearly want.”

“Through her High Court case, Lecretia hoped to raise awareness of the appropriateness of physician assisted dying legislation in some form,” he says.

The debate about euthanasia was back in the headlines last week when the results of a study of General Practitioners was released, showing some had made decisions likely to hasten the death of their terminally ill patients.

The study was published in the New Zealand Medical Journal and asked 650 GPs about the last death they’d attended.

There seems to be everything that’s needed except any political will to address euthanasia.

And Stuff reports: Doctors and nurses more involved in patients’ ‘end-of-life’ decisions – study

A University of Auckland study anonymously surveyed 650 GPs.

Sixteen reported prescribing, supplying or administering a drug with the explicit intention of bringing death about more quickly.

But in 15 of those cases, it was nurses who administered the drugs.

Researchers acknowledged the actions of the GPs would generally be understood as euthanasia, but the survey did not use that term.

In the survey, led by Auckland University senior lecturer Dr Phillipa Malpas, GPs were asked about the last death at which they were the attending doctor.

Of the 650 to respond, 359 (65.6 per cent) reported that they had made decisions, such as withdrawing treatment or alleviating pain, taking into account the probability that they may hasten death.

Some made explicit decisions about hastening death.

Of the 359, 16.2 per cent withheld treatments with the “explicit purpose of not prolonging life or hastening the end of life”.

A total of 316 doctors gave pain medication taking into account that death might come sooner, but it was not the intention. Rather, the doctor may have taken the decision to make the dying patient more comfortable in their final hours.

Preferred Prime Minister trends

Colmar Brunton have tweeted (@ColmarBruntonNZ ) ‘preferred Prime Minister’ trends for the last twenty years.

The second chart is of most immediate interest.

John Key climbed quickly to 30-ish as soon as he took over from Don Brash, and soon afterwards overtook Helen Clark, over a year out from the 2008 election. After that he climbed significantly more, but dropped off in 2011. Since then he has fluctuated, and while he’s bee lower he’s in risk of heading into the danger zone.

In the meantime since Clark resigned from leadership four successive Labour leaders have failed to impress. Andrew Little’s trend downwards will be a concern for some, but probably outweighed by concern about how yet another leadership change would look.

3 News July Poll

The latest 3 News/Reid Research poll was published tonight.

  • National 47% (up 0.6)
  • Labour 31.1% (up 0.7)
  • Greens 11.4% (up 0.3
  • NZ First 8.4% (up 0.3)
  • Maori Party 0.6% (down 0.5)
  • ACT Party 0.5%
  • United Future 0.1%
  • Conservative Party 0.7% (down 1.2)

Polling period approximately July 15-22 (Wednesday).

So it appears that Labour has sacrificed integrity on race issues ad have not gained in the polls from it.

The preferred Prime Minister brings up a surprise:

  • John Key 38.3% (down 1.1)
  • Winston Peters 11.3% (up 0.1)
  • Andrew Little 10.2% (down 1.4)

Yep, Little is now trailing Peters. But Little says he will not back down from his Chinese buyers strategy.

David Farrar says “1st time since 2003 the opposition leader is 3rd”

The poll also asked: Should Govt ban “foreign buyers”, (non res or citizens)from buying houses

  • Yes – 61% (National voters 54%)
  • No – 35% (National voters 43%)

3 News/Reid Research poll, July 15-22, 1000 voters
Margin of error: +/-3.1 percent

Read more: http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/poll-61pct-want-to-ban-foreign-buyers-2015072617#ixzz3gykS4yXQ

3 News Report: Poll: 61pct want to ban foreign buyers

Orewa versus Twyford’s bull in a China shock

Don Brash’s Orewa speech on 27 January 2004:

The Orewa Speech was a speech delivered by the then-leader of the New Zealand National Party Don Brash to the Orewa Rotary Club on 27 January 2004. It addressed the theme of race relations in New Zealand and in particular the special status of Māori people. Brash approached the once-taboo subject by advocating ‘one rule for all'[1] and ending what he saw as the Māori’s special privileges

The speech was criticised not so much for its substance but for a perceived political intent behind it. It was widely claimed that Brash was “playing the race card”, winning support for his party by fuelling racist sentiment toward Māoridom.

Wikipedia

The poll reaction – National up 17% to 45% two weeks later:bull

The year’s first Colmar-Brunton poll puts National at 45 per cent, seven points ahead of Labour.

That is a 17-point jump for National since December last year.

Don Brash is still 10 points behind Helen Clark as preferred leader but he has risen 11 points to 24 per cent.

Don Brash said it was because of his stance on race relations.

NZ Herald

Phil Twyford’s bull in a China shock 11 July 2015:

Tell us this new data. Tell us exactly what it shows.

So this data is the comprehensive sales record from a major Auckland real estate firm. It includes about 4000 individual records. It’s every house sold in the Auckland region over that three-month period.

What it shows, I think, is striking. Nearly 40% of the houses sold in that period went to people of Chinese descent, and as your introduction pointed out, the Chinese New Zealander population in Auckland, according to the most recent census data, is about 9%.

Now, that is a remarkable discrepancy, and, in my view, it’s simply not plausible to suggest, as many have done in the last couple of years, that the Chinese— ethnic Chinese people who are buying houses in Auckland are all Chinese New Zealanders.

It points, I think, to only one possible conclusion, and that is that offshore Chinese investors have a very significant presence in the Auckland real estate market when you consider that Auckland house prices are spiralling out of control at the moment. They went up on average by about $74,000 in the last three months.

Property speculation is rampant, and I believe on the strength of these numbers that offshore Chinese investors are a very significant part of what’s going on.

But here’s the problem, isn’t it, this analysis, your conclusions are based on surnames, aren’t they?
Yes, they are, and the statistical modelling that we did with this data basically attributes probability against each surname, as the surname predicts ethnic origin.

And if you look at these names, take, for example, the name Wang – W-A-N-G. Under the modelling we did, that has something like a 95% probability that that person is of Chinese descent. Take the name Lee – L-E-E. That has about a 40% probability that the person is Chinese.

So that’s how it’s done. We believe that it’s about 95% accurate, and it certainly points to a very strong conclusion.

At best that conclusion was made up and it may be quite wrong – see Who’s buying Auckland property?.

The poll reaction:

One News/Colmar Brunton poll for July 2015 – polling period Saturday 11th (Twyford Saturday) to Wednesday 15 July.

  • National 47% (down 1)
  • Labour  32% (up 1)
  • Greens 13% (up 3)
  • NZ First 7% (up 1)

A margin of error movement for both Labour and National. Some predicted Labour would score support off NZ First but no sign of that.

This is early for any poll changes to show but there certainly doesn’t look like any Orewa sized pool boost for Labour yet, and National seemed to pick up substantial support almost immediately.

This isn’t surprising, right wing racist dogwhistle reaction is probably quite different to left wing racist dogwhistle reaction (and it should be).

Poll “not quite the bounce Labour hoped for”

At the end of Q & A this morning Michael Parkin revealed a little about a One News/Colmar Brunton due out tonight.

He said there’s a few surprising numbers but significantly it was “maybe not quite the bounce that Labour hoped for”.

The polling period would have presumably been this week so will partially reflect the evolving story about foreign property ownership and profiling based on Chinese sounding names.

A Roy Morgan poll published on Friday barely covered this issue as polling concluded last Sunday but showed a significant swing from National to Labour – see National down 6.5%, Labour up 6% (pre Chinese surname saga)

UPDATE: apparently The poll period was 11-15 July which starts last Saturday and runs through to Wednesday so will only partially reflect response to the foreign purchasing/Chinese surname issue.

In any case single polls are only snapshot indicators, we’ll have to wait and see if any trends are affected.

UPDATE2: Prepared excuses?

It’ll be interesting, but Colmar Brunton’s built in 5% lean to the right should make it look OK for the Nats. Expect the lead story to be a beat up about how the housing crisis exposure hasn’t helped Labour. As if that was why it was done.

As if.

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 4,107 other followers