Two polls strongly support euthanasia

Both One News and Three News have done polls on euthanasia with strong support for changing the law and allowing euthanasia.

One News/Colmar Brunton:

Should a patient should be able to request a doctor’s assistance to end their life?

  • Yes 75%
  • No 21%
  • Undecided 5%

1000 voters questioned

3 News/Reid Research

Should law be changed to allow “assisted dying” or euthanasia?

  • Yes 71%
  • No 24%
  • Unsure 5%

Patrick Gower asked John Key if the Government would heed public opinion and do something about it. Key said they wouldn’t, but if a well drafted Member’s Bill was put before parliament he said he would support it.

The chances of a Member’s Bill being drawn is low – ad at this stage there isn’t a Bill in the ballot anyway.

One News had a report with their poll result: Lecretia Seales’ widower praises Kiwis for poll showing support for doctor assisted euthanasia

Lecretia Seales’ widower Matt Vickers is welcoming a ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll which shows the majority of New Zealanders want dying patients to be able to rely on their doctor for help to end their lives.

“We’re glad to see that New Zealanders agree that it is appropriate, respectful and compassionate, and we hope that Parliament does their job and achieves legislative change that the majority of New Zealanders clearly want.”

“Through her High Court case, Lecretia hoped to raise awareness of the appropriateness of physician assisted dying legislation in some form,” he says.

The debate about euthanasia was back in the headlines last week when the results of a study of General Practitioners was released, showing some had made decisions likely to hasten the death of their terminally ill patients.

The study was published in the New Zealand Medical Journal and asked 650 GPs about the last death they’d attended.

There seems to be everything that’s needed except any political will to address euthanasia.

And Stuff reports: Doctors and nurses more involved in patients’ ‘end-of-life’ decisions – study

A University of Auckland study anonymously surveyed 650 GPs.

Sixteen reported prescribing, supplying or administering a drug with the explicit intention of bringing death about more quickly.

But in 15 of those cases, it was nurses who administered the drugs.

Researchers acknowledged the actions of the GPs would generally be understood as euthanasia, but the survey did not use that term.

In the survey, led by Auckland University senior lecturer Dr Phillipa Malpas, GPs were asked about the last death at which they were the attending doctor.

Of the 650 to respond, 359 (65.6 per cent) reported that they had made decisions, such as withdrawing treatment or alleviating pain, taking into account the probability that they may hasten death.

Some made explicit decisions about hastening death.

Of the 359, 16.2 per cent withheld treatments with the “explicit purpose of not prolonging life or hastening the end of life”.

A total of 316 doctors gave pain medication taking into account that death might come sooner, but it was not the intention. Rather, the doctor may have taken the decision to make the dying patient more comfortable in their final hours.

Preferred Prime Minister trends

Colmar Brunton have tweeted (@ColmarBruntonNZ ) ‘preferred Prime Minister’ trends for the last twenty years.

The second chart is of most immediate interest.

John Key climbed quickly to 30-ish as soon as he took over from Don Brash, and soon afterwards overtook Helen Clark, over a year out from the 2008 election. After that he climbed significantly more, but dropped off in 2011. Since then he has fluctuated, and while he’s bee lower he’s in risk of heading into the danger zone.

In the meantime since Clark resigned from leadership four successive Labour leaders have failed to impress. Andrew Little’s trend downwards will be a concern for some, but probably outweighed by concern about how yet another leadership change would look.

3 News July Poll

The latest 3 News/Reid Research poll was published tonight.

  • National 47% (up 0.6)
  • Labour 31.1% (up 0.7)
  • Greens 11.4% (up 0.3
  • NZ First 8.4% (up 0.3)
  • Maori Party 0.6% (down 0.5)
  • ACT Party 0.5%
  • United Future 0.1%
  • Conservative Party 0.7% (down 1.2)

Polling period approximately July 15-22 (Wednesday).

So it appears that Labour has sacrificed integrity on race issues ad have not gained in the polls from it.

The preferred Prime Minister brings up a surprise:

  • John Key 38.3% (down 1.1)
  • Winston Peters 11.3% (up 0.1)
  • Andrew Little 10.2% (down 1.4)

Yep, Little is now trailing Peters. But Little says he will not back down from his Chinese buyers strategy.

David Farrar says “1st time since 2003 the opposition leader is 3rd”

The poll also asked: Should Govt ban “foreign buyers”, (non res or citizens)from buying houses

  • Yes – 61% (National voters 54%)
  • No – 35% (National voters 43%)

3 News/Reid Research poll, July 15-22, 1000 voters
Margin of error: +/-3.1 percent

Read more: http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/poll-61pct-want-to-ban-foreign-buyers-2015072617#ixzz3gykS4yXQ

3 News Report: Poll: 61pct want to ban foreign buyers

Orewa versus Twyford’s bull in a China shock

Don Brash’s Orewa speech on 27 January 2004:

The Orewa Speech was a speech delivered by the then-leader of the New Zealand National Party Don Brash to the Orewa Rotary Club on 27 January 2004. It addressed the theme of race relations in New Zealand and in particular the special status of Māori people. Brash approached the once-taboo subject by advocating ‘one rule for all'[1] and ending what he saw as the Māori’s special privileges

The speech was criticised not so much for its substance but for a perceived political intent behind it. It was widely claimed that Brash was “playing the race card”, winning support for his party by fuelling racist sentiment toward Māoridom.

Wikipedia

The poll reaction – National up 17% to 45% two weeks later:bull

The year’s first Colmar-Brunton poll puts National at 45 per cent, seven points ahead of Labour.

That is a 17-point jump for National since December last year.

Don Brash is still 10 points behind Helen Clark as preferred leader but he has risen 11 points to 24 per cent.

Don Brash said it was because of his stance on race relations.

NZ Herald

Phil Twyford’s bull in a China shock 11 July 2015:

Tell us this new data. Tell us exactly what it shows.

So this data is the comprehensive sales record from a major Auckland real estate firm. It includes about 4000 individual records. It’s every house sold in the Auckland region over that three-month period.

What it shows, I think, is striking. Nearly 40% of the houses sold in that period went to people of Chinese descent, and as your introduction pointed out, the Chinese New Zealander population in Auckland, according to the most recent census data, is about 9%.

Now, that is a remarkable discrepancy, and, in my view, it’s simply not plausible to suggest, as many have done in the last couple of years, that the Chinese— ethnic Chinese people who are buying houses in Auckland are all Chinese New Zealanders.

It points, I think, to only one possible conclusion, and that is that offshore Chinese investors have a very significant presence in the Auckland real estate market when you consider that Auckland house prices are spiralling out of control at the moment. They went up on average by about $74,000 in the last three months.

Property speculation is rampant, and I believe on the strength of these numbers that offshore Chinese investors are a very significant part of what’s going on.

But here’s the problem, isn’t it, this analysis, your conclusions are based on surnames, aren’t they?
Yes, they are, and the statistical modelling that we did with this data basically attributes probability against each surname, as the surname predicts ethnic origin.

And if you look at these names, take, for example, the name Wang – W-A-N-G. Under the modelling we did, that has something like a 95% probability that that person is of Chinese descent. Take the name Lee – L-E-E. That has about a 40% probability that the person is Chinese.

So that’s how it’s done. We believe that it’s about 95% accurate, and it certainly points to a very strong conclusion.

At best that conclusion was made up and it may be quite wrong – see Who’s buying Auckland property?.

The poll reaction:

One News/Colmar Brunton poll for July 2015 – polling period Saturday 11th (Twyford Saturday) to Wednesday 15 July.

  • National 47% (down 1)
  • Labour  32% (up 1)
  • Greens 13% (up 3)
  • NZ First 7% (up 1)

A margin of error movement for both Labour and National. Some predicted Labour would score support off NZ First but no sign of that.

This is early for any poll changes to show but there certainly doesn’t look like any Orewa sized pool boost for Labour yet, and National seemed to pick up substantial support almost immediately.

This isn’t surprising, right wing racist dogwhistle reaction is probably quite different to left wing racist dogwhistle reaction (and it should be).

Poll “not quite the bounce Labour hoped for”

At the end of Q & A this morning Michael Parkin revealed a little about a One News/Colmar Brunton due out tonight.

He said there’s a few surprising numbers but significantly it was “maybe not quite the bounce that Labour hoped for”.

The polling period would have presumably been this week so will partially reflect the evolving story about foreign property ownership and profiling based on Chinese sounding names.

A Roy Morgan poll published on Friday barely covered this issue as polling concluded last Sunday but showed a significant swing from National to Labour – see National down 6.5%, Labour up 6% (pre Chinese surname saga)

UPDATE: apparently The poll period was 11-15 July which starts last Saturday and runs through to Wednesday so will only partially reflect response to the foreign purchasing/Chinese surname issue.

In any case single polls are only snapshot indicators, we’ll have to wait and see if any trends are affected.

UPDATE2: Prepared excuses?

It’ll be interesting, but Colmar Brunton’s built in 5% lean to the right should make it look OK for the Nats. Expect the lead story to be a beat up about how the housing crisis exposure hasn’t helped Labour. As if that was why it was done.

As if.

Herald story on poll changes

Newspaper stories aren’t always like the used to be, fixed in print once the presses roll.

David Farrar pointed out in A Labour member complains:

First let’s deal with the headline of the story:

Has the leak worked? Poll boost for Labour

The headline writer should be shot.

Labour has lifted by six points to its highest level since March 2014 in the Roy Morgan Poll.

Labour is up to 32 per cent in the poll – up six points from a fortnight ago while National was down six points to 43 per cent support.

However, the impact of Labour’s analysis of leaked Auckland real estate data remains unclear.

The poll of 886 voters began on June 29 and ended the day after Labour released that data on July 11.

So 90% of the poll was before the release. So the headline is trying to manufacture a story.

However NZ Herald currently has this headline with the story:

Poll boost for Labour

By David Fisher, Claire Trevett

Labour has lifted by six points to its highest level since March 2014 in the Roy Morgan Poll.

Labour is up to 32 per cent in the poll – up six points from a fortnight ago while National was down six points to 43 per cent support.

However, the impact of Labour’s analysis of leaked Auckland real estate data remains unclear.

The poll of 886 voters began on June 29 and ended the day after Labour released that data on July 11.

What Farrar probably doesn’t know is that the story has changed since the headline was written, and then the headline was changed.  I saw the original version, as did Keith Ng who pointed out:

Oi . I mathed it for you.

The data was released by Labour with substantial help by NZ Herald six days prior, not a week.

One of the article authors responded:

ha! I was so busy trying to find it in the fine print I didn’t look at the top bit!

Since then the headline and story have now been edited:

From:

Has the leak worked? Poll boost for Labour

However it us unclear how much of the poll was taken before Labour released it’s analysis of leaked Auckland real estate agent data, which was a week ago.

To:

Poll boost for Labour

However, the impact of Labour’s analysis of leaked Auckland real estate data remains unclear.

The poll of 886 voters began on June 29 and ended the day after Labour released that data on July 11.

Farrar must have copy pasted after the story was edited, but before the headline was edited.

Roy Morgan poll – June

The latest Roy Morgan poll has National dropping to a more ‘normal’ level (they were unusually high last month), Greens have probably benefited a bit from James Shaw becoming leader and Labour are stuck in the mid twenties.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

  • National 49.5% (down 4.5)
  • Maori Party 1% (unchanged)
  • ACT 1% (unchanged)
  • United Future (unchanged)
  • Labour 26% (up 0.5)
  • Greens 13% (up 2.5)
  • NZ First 6.5% (up 0.5)
  • Conservative Party 1% (unchanged)
  • Internet/Mana 0% (unchanged)
  • Other 2% (up 1)

5% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.

905 people were polled ‘in June 2015′ they don’t seem to state the polling period dates but normally it would be for two weeks up until last Sunday.

It will barely have taken into account the Conservative meltdown.

National have not had a great few weeks with a number of issues simmering so a fairly normal result close to 50% won’t worry them, even though they dropped significantly from an unusually high result last month.

Greens have bounced back within their usual range.

Labour may be getting anxious, having dropped and then stayed around 26%, close to their embarrassing low election result last year.

Labour since the election: 22.5, 24.0, 27.0, 26.0, 30.0, 31.0, 27.5, 25.5, 26.0

RoyMorgan2015June

Summary

Download PDF

.

3 News Poll varies

The latest 3 News/Reid Research poll varies significantly from the last two polls (Roy Morgan and One News/Colmar Brunton), demonstrating why they should be seen as nothing more than indicative snapshots.

  • National 46.4% ( down 3.4)
  • Labour 30.4% (up 1.3)
  • Greens 11.1% (up 1.1)
  • NZ First 8.1% (up 1.1)
  • Conservative Party 1.9%
  • Maori Party 1.1%
  • ACT 0.5%
  • United Future 0%

It’s worth noting that the 3 News/Reid Research poll just prior to the election last September had National down  2.2 to 44.5% and Labour up 4 to 29.1%.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • John Key 39.4% (down 4.6)
  • Andrew Little 11.6% (up 1.8)
  • Winston Peters 11.2% (up 3.6%)

The last 3 News poll was in January so claiming specific reasons have affected the movements (as Patrick Gower did) is nothing more than guesswork.

I’ll add the other results when they are available.

Little change in One News poll

There has been very little change of significance in the latest One News/Colmar Brunton poll.

“If a general election was held today, would you be eligible to vote?”

  • National 48% (-1)
  • Labour 31% (no change)
  • Greens 10% (+1)
  • NZ First 7% (no change)
  • Conservative 2% (no change)
  • Maori Party 1% (no change)

OneNewsPartyVoteMay2015

“Thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime Minister?”

  • John Key 44% (+2)
  • Andrew Little 9% (-2)
  • Winston Peters 9% (-1)

“The Government delivered its Budget on Thursday. Thinking about your own personal circumstances, does this Budget leave you better off, about the same, or worse off?”1

  • Better off 4%
  • About the same 72%
  • Worse off 10%

SAMPLE SIZE: n = 1,003 eligible voters.

SAMPLING ERROR: The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5% have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9%-points and ±1.4%-points, respectively, at the 95% confidence level.

Colmar Brunton:

Summary

Full report (PDF)

Marijuana legislation poll

Full details have been posted of a ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll on marijuana law preferences.

Which one of the following best describes your view on marijuana laws in New Zealand?:
(Current poll April 2015, movement from October 2003)

Remain the same 21% (down 4%):

  • Marijuana should remain illegal for all uses, as it is now:  21% (down 4%)

Change 77% (up 2%):

  • Marijuana should remain illegal, except in specific medical cases where a patient can be prescribed it to treat pain: 47% (up 11%)
  • Marijuana should be decriminalised so that while it would remain illegal, if someone is caught with a small amount they can be fined but would not receive a criminal record: 21% (down 11%)
  • Marijuana should be legalise: 9% (up 2%)

As has already been said they have combined two separate issues in one poll, perhaps to line it up with the 2003 poll but medical use and recreational use should be looked at as separate issues.

  • The proportion of eligible New Zealand voters favouring legalisation for medical purposes has increased substantially over the last twelve years, up from 36% in 2003 to 47% in 2014.
  • The proportion of eligible New Zealand voters favouring decimalisation has decreased substantially, down
    from 32% in 2003 to 21% in 2014.

That’s a nonsense statement. All the poll shows is that a preference has moved from recreational decriminalisation to medical use. If they were polled separately we get a more4 accurate picture.

Those more likely than average (47%) to favour legalisation for medical purposes:

  • women (55%)
  • those aged 55 years or more (52%).

Those more likely than average (21%) to favour decimalisation are:

  • those living in high income households, with an annual household income over $100,000 (27%)
  • Green Party supporters (36%).

Those more likely than average (9%) say marijuana should be legalised are:

  • Green Party supporters (20%).

Source (PDF)

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