Another ominous Northland poll for National

A day after a 3 News poll had Winston Peters nearly 20% ahead of National candidate Mark Osborne One News has published a poll with a similar result.

In a telephone poll of 501 eligible Northland voters:

  • Winston Peters (NZ First) 53%
  • Mark Osborne (National) 36%
  • Willow-Jean Prime (Labour) 9%
  • Don’t know/refused 7%

That’s a huge lead that will be difficult for National’s get-out-the-vote campaign to overcome.

The maximum sampling error for the poll is about plus or minus 4.4 percetage points at a 95% confidence level.

‘National Party voters’ support :

  • Peters 15%
  • Osborne 80%
  • Prime 3%

– that’s on a subset of the respondents, presumably about half, so the sampling error (often called margin of error) will be higher

…nearly 70% of Labour voters polled in the region now saying they will vote for Mr Peters.

That’s two thirds who say they will switch their vote to Peters.

Northland Poll: Peters 54%, Osborne 34%

3 News have just announced a new poll for the Northland by-election (although some of the numbers don’t add up).

  • Winston Peters (NZ First) 54%
  • Mark Osborne (National) 34%
  • Willow-Jean Prime (Labour) 10%
  • Other 2%

That’s a significant lead. But some of the numbers are a bit weird.

Can you trust Winston Peters?

  • Yes 43%
  • No 48%
  • Don’t know 9%

So 11% more say they will vote for Peters than trust him. It’s possible that voters on the left don’t trust him but put more priority on scoring a hit on National.

But more curious is the number who say which party they have switched from to support Peters:

  • 75% of Labour voters
  • 25% of National voters

In last year’s election:

  • National got 49% – 25% of that is about 12%.
  • Labour got about 17% – 75% of that is 13%.
  • NZ First got 13%.

That adds up to 38%, well short of 54%. Greens got about 11% and Conservatives got 6% which if all voted for Winston gets up to his poll support.

And if you take 25% off National’s 49% you get about 37%, a bit above 34%. This suggests that the poll isn’t particularly accurate.

500 Northland voters were polled.

The margin of error on a poll that size:

  • 40%-60% ±4.5
  • 25% or 75% ±3.9
  • 10% or 90% ±2.7

That allows for quite a bit of variation.

Regardless, Peters is well out in front. National will have much more organisation and help to get their supporters out the vote than NZ First who haven’t stood a candidate in Northland for about a decade, but it still looks ominous for National.

There has already been a much higher than normal number of people who have early voted.

Other poll results:

Are the bridge upgrades a bribe?

  • Yes 74 – percent
  • No 22 – percent
  • Don’t know – 4 percent

Do you agree with the bridge upgrades?

  • Yes – 58 percent
  • No – 39 percent
  • Don’t know – 3 percent

Read more:

Amnesty International spy poll slanted to support anti-spying campaign

David Fisher, spy reporter at NZ Herald, writes about an Amnesty International New Zealand and global survey on spying – Most Kiwis reject Govt spying – survey:

Kiwis have rejected government surveillance of their own communications – and that of people in other countries, according to new survey.

An Amnesty International survey of about 1000 people shows 63 per cent of Kiwis surveyed are opposed to the government monitoring and storing their own internet and mobile phone use.

It’s not surprising that most people don’t want their communications monitored and stored.But they weren’t asked if they supported the monitoring of communications of possible criminals and terrorists.

Prime Minister John Key has rejected the claims, saying there is no mass surveillance of New Zealanders here or abroad.

Key also keeps emphasising that New Zealand law forbids mass surveillance of New Zealanders.

And it’s also not surprising to see Amnesty International do a global survey that shows opposition to spying. They publicised the poll in a press release yesterday – NZers part of global opposition to mass surveillance (Scoop).

New Zealanders part of global opposition to USA big brother mass surveillance

“Big brother mass surveillance” is a fairly loaded statement indicative of Amnesty International’s feelings.

The United States’ mass surveillance of internet and phone use flies in the face of global public opinion, said Amnesty International as it published a major poll to launch its worldwide #UnfollowMe campaign.

So the poll is part of a worldwide anti-spying campaign. That doesn’t give confidence of an impartial approach.

The poll, which questioned 15,000 people from 13 countries across every continent, including New Zealand, found that 71% of respondents were strongly opposed to the United States monitoring their internet use.

That’s not surprising, apart from it being only 71%. But it depends on what is meant by ‘monitoring their internet use’.

I don’t want a spy in the US monitoring everything I do on the Internet. But I don’t have a problem with the scanning of data looking for potentially dangerous intent.

“Today’s technology gives governments unprecedented power to watch what we do on the internet. We need independent scrutiny to watch the watchers so that power is not abused. Yet today there is little or no legislation in any country that really protects our human right to privacy against indiscriminate mass surveillance. Indeed, more countries are actually considering laws granting wider surveillance powers, at the expense of people’s rights.”

That’s blatantly misleading in a New Zealand context. We have laws that prohibits surveillance without having a specific warrant for a specific target, so it prohibits mass surveillance.

And we have an independent scrutiny via the Inspector General who’s job is specifically to “watch the watchers so that power is not abused.”

“Yet today there is little or no legislation in any country that really protects our human right to privacy against indiscriminate mass surveillance” is false. We have legislation for this in New Zealand.

Here’s some of the YouGov / Amnesty Survey Results.

Sample Size: 1008 New Zealand Adults
Fieldwork: 4th – 13th February 2015

Do you think the New Zealand Government should or should not intercept, store and analyse internet use and mobile phone communications of…
…all New Zealand citizens living in New Zealand
Should intercept, store and analyse internet use and mobile communications 22
Should not intercept, store and analyse internet use and mobile communications 63
Don’t know 15
…all foreign nationals in New Zealand
Should intercept, store and analyse internet use and mobile communications 43
Should not intercept, store and analyse internet use and mobile communications 40
Don’t know 17
…people living in other countries
Should intercept, store and analyse internet use and mobile communications 22
Should not intercept, store and analyse internet use and mobile communications 53
Don’t know 25

According to our law the New Zealand Government is forbidden from intercepting or storing communications of all New Zealanders. So our law is supported by the first question.

Thinking about the United States government, do you think the US government should or should not intercept, store and analyse internet use in New Zealand?
Should intercept, store and analyse internet use in New Zealand 13
Should not intercept, store and analyse internet use in New Zealand 75
Don’t know 12

I’d prefer not, but it’s a risk of communicating on a public Internet. However we can’t do anything about what other countries monitor on the Internet – not just the United States government. Why just target one country?

Some people think that any surveillance of internet use should have to be subjected to transparent and independent judicial and parliamentary oversight, whereas others say some surveillance such as that conducted by government intelligence agencies is too sensitive for such oversight.
Which of the following comes closest to your view?
Any surveillance of internet use should have to be subject to transparent and independent oversight 49
In some cases, it is acceptable for internet surveillance to take place without oversight 40
Don’t know 11

That’s a fairly vague question with a split response. It depends on what level of oversight is involved. There’s insufficient oversight of what Google and Facebook and Twitter et al monitor. They have more impact on most individuals than Government surveillance.

Please now assume that New Zealand’s intelligence and security agencies are intercepting and storing the data collected from the use of your internet and mobile phone. Please say whether you would be more likely or less likely to…
Criticise the government on social media, email or private messaging applications
More likely 15
Less likely 7
Make no difference – I would do this anyway 34
Make no difference – I wouldn’t do this anyway 34
Don’t know 10

“Please now assume that New Zealand’s intelligence and security agencies are…“...doing something that is illegal and we have had repeated assurances by the Prime Minister and the Inspector General that they can’t and don’t do.

Please now assume that Amnesty International has used this poll for slanted opposition to spying.

I’d be interested in a poll on spying that was impartial and balanced, and genuinely attempts to determine opinion on spying.

This poll isn’t and doesn’t. It is being used as a campaign tool. It seems to have been designed with that in mind.

Amnesty International have been misleading and dishonest.

If the NSA published a poll in the launch of a campaign to promote spying I’d be just as sceptical.

And why is David Fisher (a senior reporter for the NZ Herald) writing an article based on a campaign associated poll without critical analysis?

The GCSB has been operating under a questionable legal basis for more than three years.The GCSB has been operating under a questionable legal basis for more than three years.

That’s an odd statement with a curious timeframe without anything to support it, especially considering the legal basis was changed half way through the last three years.

The report didn’t mention the fact that the poll is being used to promote an anti-spying campaign.

Fisher has been reporting under a questionable agenda basis.

Q & A Colmar Brunton party poll (Northland)

Alongside their Northland poll Colmar Brunton’ first asked a party support question:

If a general election was held today which political party would you vote for?

  • National 49%
  • Labour 22%
  • New Zealand First 17%
  • Green Party 8%
  • Conservative Party 2.9%
  • Focus New Zealand 0.7%
  • Another party 8%

Full poll results:

Link: Q + A Colmar Brunton Northland Poll

New Northland poll 36-36-20

Today Ones News/Colmar Brunton have their Northland by-election poll.

  • New Zealand First candidate Winston Peters – 36%
  • National candidate Mark Osborne – 36%
  • Labour candidate Willow-Jean Prime –  20%
  • Focus New Zealand candidate Joe Carr – 5%
  • Another of the named confirmed candidates – 3%

Polling period Tuesday-Friday 3-6 March, 500 Northland voters (about +/-4% at 36%)

Asked who they would vote for if the Labour candidate stood aside:

  • Winston Peters 51%
  • Mark Osborne 37%
  • Joe Carr 7%
  • Other candidate 5%

But Prime can’t stand aside, she is officially on the ballot.

Link: Q + A Colmar Brunton Northland Poll

3 News published an earlier Reid Research poll mid-week on the Northland by-election – amongst a rush of publicity for Peters and virtually ignoring the other candidates.

  • Winston Peters (NZ First) – 35%
  • Mark Osborne (National) – 30%
  • Willow-Jean Prime (Labour) – 16%

Margin of error at 30-35% polling 500 people is about +/-4%

Labour, National up in One News poll

In the first One News/Colmar Brunton poll of the year Labour are up six to 31% and National are up four to 49% – this is a similar result to they recent Roy Morganl.

  • National 49% (up 4)
  • Labour 31% (up 6)
  • Greens 10% (down 2)
  • NZ First 6 (6% (down 2)
  • Maori Party 2% (no change)
  • Conservatives 1% (down 3)
  • Refused to answer 3% (down 2)
  • Undecided 7% (up 2)

Those results are round to the nearest percent so aren’t very accurate for the smaller parties.

Polling was done over 14-18 February so covers only a small part of the difficult week for Andrew Little.

Poll link.

This week’s Roy Morgan results were very similar:

  • National 49%
  • Labour Party 30%
  • Greens 12%
  • NZ First 6%
  • Conservative Party1.5%
  • Maori Party 1.0%

Colmar Brunton Preferred Prime Minister:

  • John Key 41% (down 2)
  • Andrew Little 12% (first result)
  • Winston Peters 7% (up 2)

Labour up, National down in Roy Morgan poll

The latest Roy Morgan poll:

  • National 49% (down 3%)
  • Maori Party 1.0% (down 0.5%)
  • Act NZ 0% (down 1%)
  • United Future 0% (unchanged)
  • Labour Party 30% (up 4% - their highest level of support since July 2014)
  • Greens 12% (up 1%)
  • NZ First 6% (unchanged)
  • Conservative Party1.5% (down 0.5%)
  • Internet-Mana Party 0% (unchanged)
  • Independent/ Others 0.5% (unchanged).

This poll was held on February 2-15 (the previous one was (January 5-18, 2015) – most of the polling will have been done during John Key’s awful week last week and before Andrew Little’s awful week this week.

Labour will be hoping this recovery trend continues. If they’re lucky their hiccups this week will be forgotten by the next polling period.


And Government confidence is down.

Coinciding with the decrease in support for the Government the latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen significantly to 124pts (down 20pts). This is the lowest the NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has been since October 2013.

Coinciding with the decrease in support for the Government the latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen significantly to 124pts (down 20pts). This is the lowest the NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has been since October 2013.

Roy Morgan includes good ‘margin of error’ information:

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40%-60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
500 ±4.5 ±3.9 ±2.7 ±1.9
1,000 ±3.2 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.4
1,500 ±2.6 ±2.2 ±1.5 ±1.1
2,000 ±2.2 ±1.9 ±1.3 ±1.0

The Roy Morgan sample size this poll was 891.

“The Greens will have their worry beads out”

Russel Norman stepping down as co-leader poses a new challenge for the Greens, especially if Metiria Turei becomes more dominant as she has leas broad appeal.

And according to Patrick Gower the Greens have another worry from the latest 3 News poll:

Gower said the latest polls would shock a couple of parties.

“The Greens will have their worry beads out.”

Results will be tonight on 3 News. The polling will presumably have been done before Norman announced he will be stepping down.

The new Green co-leader won’t be chosen until May. That leaves a co-vacuum until then, as Norman is likely to leave more of the leader’s duties to Turei.

Leadership transition is always an uncertain time for a party, and a long lead-in until the new leader takes over won’t help.

Little rated against Key

NZ Herald reports on a 3 News/Reid Research poll (I can’t find it on the 3 News site) and asks Has Key met his match?

A 3 News Reid-Research poll has revealed 55 per cent of voters think Little is potentially a better match for Prime Minister John Key than his Labour Party leader predecessors.

3 News political editor Patrick Gower said the poll result was a huge boost for Little.

“It means more than half of voters think he can do a better job than Phil Goff, David Shearer or David Cunliffe,” Gower said.

“And the fact that it’s over half shows it’s well and truly beyond the people who vote for Labour normally and into centre voters and probably some National voters as well.”

It’s too soon to tell, and Labour’s recovery will take more than Little to step up a few notches, but this poll result looks promising for Little’s prospects.

Little said the poll result was “nice” but he wouldn’t be taking any false hope from it.

“Things like this kind of go up and down. You’re in favour and you’re out of favour … it’s nice to have the kind of start that I’ve had. But we’ve got a long way to go yet and a lot of work to do so I’m focused on that.”

Little sounds realistic about where he’s at now.

A Key spokeswoman last night told the Herald on Sunday: “The Prime Minister never underestimates any leader of the Opposition.”

There’s signs that National is very wary of Little. That’s good, it will keep them on their toes.

So this is promising for Little but more important for Labour will be the party poll result, which will be revealed on 3 New tonight at 6 pm.

National up in silly season poll

The latest Roy Morgan poll is of minor interest but I wouldn’t bet the year on it – National up to 52%, they same as they were mid-last year.

  • National 52% (up 6% since November 24-December 7, 2014)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (down 0.5%)
  • Act NZ 1% (down 0.5%)
  • United Future  0% (unchanged)
  • Labour Party 26% (down 1%)
  • Greens 11% (down 1%)
  • NZ First 6% (down 1%

Apart from National hey are insignificant changes especially for this time of year.

  • Conservative Party of NZ 2% (down 0.5%)
  • Internet-Mana Party alliance 0% (down 1%)
  • Independent/ Others 0.5% (down 0.5%)

Internet-Mana down to 8% is one of the more notable results. The Internet Party seems doomed but Mana has been dragged right down with them.

Source: National surges in 2015 – Biggest lead since September 2014 NZ Election



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