Dunne on Labour, Little and poll responds

In his weekly blog post Peter Dunne has criticised Labour for being too negative and having lost their soul.

Sadly, today’s Labour Party is but a shadow of its bold predecessors. There is no sense of future direction or purpose, and even in its rare positive moments, the Party’s best offerings seem to be a hankering for yesteryear.

The boldness in politics is now coming from the National Party – formed primarily to oppose the first Labour government – with no more striking example than its Budget decision this year to lift basic benefit payments, the first such upward adjustment in over 40 years(including the 3rd to 5th Labour Governments). Labour, the traditional friend of the beneficiary, was left gasping in its wake.

Labour’s challenge today is to recover its soul and its place. In this post market age, there is a still a role for a radical reforming party of the left, if it is prepared to be bold.

There is the opportunity to pull together the threads of the Labour heroes and promote a new commitment based around strengthening New Zealand’s national identity through constitutional and social reform, and encouraging diversity.

There is still a place for a progressive party promising a new, more co-operative economic approach in today’s globally digitally and free trade connected world. And there is still a place for a progressive party to promote new, innovative approaches to education and social services.

But rather than grasp these opportunities, Labour has become predeterminedly negative. While it supports a new New Zealand flag, it opposes the current referendum process, essentially because it is a National Prime Minister’s idea.

Its approach to economic policy is stalled because it cannot make up its mind on the Trans Pacific Partnership.

Its stigmatising of people with Chinese sounding names buying property in Auckland has robbed it of any credibility in the diversity stakes, and its capacity to champion meaningful education reform is zero while it remains the plaything of the PPTA.

Andrew Little responded – Stuff reports Little says Labour’s job is to ‘contest and challenge’ the Government:

Little rubbished Dunne’s comments saying in Opposition there was a job to be done and that is to “contest and challenge what the Government of the day is doing”.

“This is from a man who left the Labour Party and is now a party of one,” he said from Sydney where he is visiting New Zealand-born detainees at Villawood Detention Centre.

“You’ve got a job also to come up with the alternative ideas but you’ve got situations like this, a bunch of Kiwis who are looking for a voice, and somebody’s got to step in,” Little said.

And Dunne responded to that on Twitter:

Poor old angry Andy, just proves my point

And Stuff have run an online poll (take with a grain of salt):

Has Labour lost it’s way?

  • Yes, it’s too negative 26%
  • Yes, It’s not innovative or bold enough 12%
  • Yes, both of the above 41%
  • No, it’s fine 21%


Minor movement in 3 News poll

Despite things like Christmas Island. Key.s rapist remarks and Labour’s conference the latest 3 News/Reid Research poll has barely move, with all but the Maori Party well within margins of error movements.

  • National 46.7% (-0.6)
  • Labour 32.3% (-0.7)
  • Greens 10.2% (+0.2)
  • NZ First 7.5% (-0.4)
  • Maori Party 1.3% (+0.8)
  • Conservative Party 0.7% (0.2)
  • ACT Party 0.8% (+0.2)
  • UnitedFuture 0% (0)

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • John Key 38.3% (-1.2)
  • Andrew Little 10.4%  (-0.4)
  • Winston Peters 9.3% (+0.7)
  • Jacinda Ardern 4.2% (+0.7)

Key has dropped a little, as has Little who hasn’t gained any traction after his well received (by party members) conference speech.


That trend through the year for Key should be causing a bit of concern.

3 News report: National still ahead in polls despite ‘rapist’ remarks

Pointless TPPA poll

3 News released a Reid Research poll on the TPPA tonight (presumably they wil drip feed minor results until the party poll on Sunday night).

  • Against TPPA 52%
  • For TPPA 34%
  • Don’t know 14%

The report said that the Government had a lot of work to do to get the public on side. What tosh. The Government has done all the work, now they need to go through the formalities in Parliament, hope all the other countries confirm they are in, and it will happen.

The public will probably have forgotten about it by the election in 2017, or hardly care about it.

Against votes per party:

  • National 23%
  • Labour 73%
  • Greens 84%
  • NZ First 87%

A bit of surprise to see NZ First voters least in favour. Perhaps they don’t care much for trade as long as their zimmer frames keep coming in from China. Or they may have been more concerned about drug costs.


Three year poll trends

David Farrar has posted Public Polls October 2015 at Kiwiblog, which combines all public polls over the past three years.

There’s details in Farrar’s post, but at a glance:

National have their ups and downs but are mostly staying within a 45-50% band. If this continues being on an up swing at election time will be important. After three terms they could just as easily drop below the ‘single party plus a handfuil of support seats’ zone.

Labour have recovered from last year’s election low and currently seem to have settled into a low thirties zone, with more fluctuation than any time over the last three years. They need to lift into at least the 35-40% zone to look like a lead party rather than part of an alternative bunch.

Greens are also fluctuating more apart from their post-eelction spike, but there’s signs their support has eased back a bit.

Unusually for NZ First they have maintained their election level of support and appear to be trending upwards.

Massive poll support for medical cannabis

This is in Australia but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar result here – a Roy Morgan poll finds A massive majority of Australians support the legalisation of medicinal marijuana.

The poll asked:  ‘In your opinion should the use of marijuana for medicinal purposes be made legal or remain illegal?’

  • Yes 91%
  • No 7%
  • Can’t say 2%

That’s a significant result.

Some breakdowns on who voted yes:

  • Men 90%
  • Women 92%
  • Age 50-64 94%
  • Age 65 and older 94%
  • Age 14-25 85%

Older people are probably more concerned about the availability of medicines.

By State:

  • West Australia 97%
  • New South Wales, Victoria 92%
  • Queensland, South Australia 89%

Whichever way you look at it this is a huge majority support for medical cannabis.

The poll was taken over three nights on 22-24 October 2015 and asked 644 Australians.

One News/Colmar Brunton poll

The latest One News/Colmar Brunton poll results don’t mean much as movements have been nil or small:

  • National 47% (no change)
  • Labour 31% (down 1)
  • Greens 12% (no change)
  • NZ First 9% (up 2)
  • Maori Party 0.8% (down 0.4)
  • Conservative 0.4% (up 0.3)
  • ACT 0.2% (up 0.1)
  • Mana 0% (down 0.2)
  • United Future 0%
  • Refused to answer 3% (down 1)
  • Undecided 9% (up 2)

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • John Key 40% (no change)
  • Andrew Little 8% (down 2)
  • Winston Peters 8% (up 2)
  • Jacinda Ardern 3%

They said that David Shearer bottomed out at 10% and David Cunliffe bottomed out at 8%.

They interviewed Little who said he was doing all right getting around and meeting people. He couldn’t say much else.

Poling period Saturday 10 – Wednesday 14 October 2015.


Click here to download the ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll repot, or read more at the TVNZ politics page.

National up, Labour/Green down in October Roy Morgan poll

In the volatile Roy Morgan poll National are up 5% and Labour + Greens down 5.5% in their October poll.  The Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement was announced about half way through the polling period but it doesn’t cover this week when Labour’s abysmal TPPA positioning became apparent.

  • National 50% (up 5)
  • Labour 29% (down 2)
  • Greens 11.5% (down 3.5)
  • NZ First 6.5% (up 1)
  • Maori Party 0.5% (down 1)
  • ACT  0.5% (unchanged)
  • Conservative Party 0.5% (down 0.5)
  • Internet-Mana 0.5% (unchanged)
  • United Future 0% (down 0.5)
  • Independent/others 1% (up 1)

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 882 electors in October 2015. Of all electors surveyed 7% (down 1%) didn’t name a party.


Details: National support jumps in October with signing of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and leads potential Labour/Greens alliance

Assisted Dying Bill added to Members’ ballot

David Seymour has added his Assisted Dying Bill to the Members’ lottery. It will only go to Parliament if it gets drawn. There are usually three Bills drawn from 60-70 every month or few.

A poll run for this shows 66% somewhat or strongly support euthanasia and 20% somewhat or strongly oppose.

This is a difficult issue to deal with. Political parties and MPs have tried to avoid issues like this. Labour’s Maryanne Street had a similar Members’ Bill in the pool last term but Andrew Little chose to avoid it when he became leader so it wasn’t taken up this term. That’s why Seymour stepped in.

Today’s announcement:

Seymour lodges assisted dying Bill

David Seymour, MP for Epsom, has lodged a Bill on assisted dying in Parliament’s Members’ ballot today.

“The End of Life Choice Bill is a response to the anguish faced by a small but significant minority of people with terminal illness or who are grievously and irremediably ill, as they anticipate the prospect of intolerable suffering and the indignity of the final few days and weeks of their lives,” said Mr Seymour.

“The motivation for this Bill is compassion. It allows people who so choose and are eligible under this Bill to end their life in peace and dignity, surrounded by loved ones.

“The Bill carefully defines those eligible for assisted dying. It details a comprehensive set of provisions to ensure this is a free choice made without coercion, and outlines a stringent series of steps to ensure the person is mentally capable of understanding the nature and consequences of assisted dying.

“It is evident from polls that a substantial majority of the public want Parliamentarians to consider assisted dying legislation.

“In fact, an independent poll of 2,800 people which I have commissioned on this issue shows 66% of the public favour allowing assisted dying – 38% strongly in favour – and 20% oppose. Support is remarkably steady across age groups, rural and urban areas, and genders.

“This should give a clear message to Parliamentarians that the public wants this issue addressed. If this Bill is drawn, I hope MPs will support it through its First Reading, so the many complex issues can be considered through the select committee process.”

David Seymour has also launched a website which will act as an information source and campaign hub: End of Life Choice

The Bill can be viewed here.

ACT have prepared well for this, including having a larger than normal poll done on it.

Some people believe that the law should be changed to allow doctors to assist in ending the life of a person with an incurable illness, if the patient requests it. What is your view on whether voluntary euthanasia should be legal
– strongly oppose, somewhat oppose, somewhat favour, strongly favour?

  • Strongly oppose 13%
  • Somewhat oppose 7%
  • Neutral 11%
  • Somewhat support 28%
  • Strongly support 38%
  • Unsure 2%
  • Refuse 3%


Conducted 14 to 30 June and 7 September to 6 October 2015

A question was asked in our regular weekly poll of at least 333 adult New Zealanders.

There were 2,800 responses. This gives a 1.9% maximum margin of error at the 95% confidence level.

All the polling data from Curia can be read here.

Rank the flags

David Farrar is running a non-scientific online survey on flag preferences:

Rank the six possible New Zealand flags

I’m doing an unscientific web survey to gauge people’s preferences when it comes to the six possible flag options New Zealand has.

The survey is at SurveyMonkey – https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/nzflagsurvey

You need to rank all six options.

Once concluded I will publish the results and also the preference flows from each option, so we can see people’s second and other choices.

Vote early but only vote once.

The Wellington City Council is flying the five flag options we get to vote on in the postal referendum next month.

celia and flags

Stuff reports:

Red Peak response tepid as Wellington council unfurls flag options

Red Peak has fizzled with the public in a flag-off above Wellington, as silver ferns drew delight.

Wellington City Council ran up all five contenders for New Zealand’s flag above the Town Hall on Monday to boost discussion on the options.

And Radio NZ:

Flag designs fly high over Wellington

Wellington is attempting to raise more debate and interest in the national flag referendum.

Today all five flag designs, which people will choose from, were raised in Civic Square in the capital.

Wellington mayor Celia Wade-Brown said it was important for the public to see the flag designs on display and how they worked in a practical sense.

“What I want to see is a decent turn-out, so that the one that goes up against the current flag really is the one that people want.”

The five alternative designs to replace the current flag are put to the test in Wellington.

UPDATE: Farrar has now posted his poll results – NZ Flag survey results

3 News September poll

The September 2015 3 News/Reid Research poll was published tonight. It contrasts with the recent Roy Morgan poll which had National dropping to 44.5%.

  • National 47.3% (up 0.3)
  • Labour 33.0% (up 1.9)
  • Greens 10.0% (down 1.4)
  • NZ First 7.9% (down 0.5)
  • ACT Party 0.6% (up 0.1)
  • Maori Party 0.5% (down 0.1)
  • United Future 0.0% (down 0.1)
  • Conservative Party 0.5% (down 0.2)

National are holding up and Labour should be quietly hopeful after another rise, but at the expense of Greens and NZ First.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • John Key 39.5% (up 1.2)
  • Andrew Little 10.8% (up 0.6)
  • Winston Peters 8.6% (up -2.5)
  • Jacinda Ardern 3.5%

Has the gloss gone off Winston’s Northland win? Both NZ First and he are down.

Do you want a change of flag?

  • No 69%
  • Yes 25%
  • Don’t know 6%

A big battle ahead for change.


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