Four polls – don’t rely on a single one

Roy Morgan’s fortnightly poll proves why you shouldn’t read too much into a single poll.

One News
Colmar Brunton
3 News
Reid Research
Fairfax
Ipsos
Roy
Morgan
 Polling period 17-23 May 17-23 May “days after
May 16″
13-26 May
National               49      47.1 49.1            41.0
Labour                33             33.1 31.9         35.0
Greens        9   12.0 11.2         12.0
NZ First             4               2.2 3.2          4.5
Conservative         2           1.5 1.6          2.5
Maori         1       2.2 ?          2.0
Mana           1          0.5 ?         0.5
Act      -            0.2 ?          0.5
United Future          1           0.4 ?           0.5
Other          1.5

There’s a big difference between the first three and the Roy Morgan poll. The only obvious difference is Roy Morgan polled over a much longer period, and unlike all the others started before the budget.

The best lessons from this are:

  • Only one poll every three years counts
  • You can’t judge a lot off a single poll.

And if you look at the Roy Morgan trends it shows there are big variations from poll to poll.

 

Three polls

On Sunday One News and 3 News released polls, and today Fairfax have reported on their latest poll. All polling was done over a similar period, just after the budget.

One News
Colmar Brunton
3 News
Reid Research
Fairfax
Ipsos
17-23 May 17-23 May “days after
May 16″
National                      49                   47.1 49.1
Labour                     33                    33.1 31.9
Greens                   9             12.0 11.2
NZ First                     4                 2.2 3.2
Conservative                      2                     1.5 1.6
Maori                    1                 2.2 ?
Mana                         1                     0.5 ?
Act                      -                  0.2 ?
United Future                      1                     0.4 ?
  • One News/Colmar look to be rounded to the nearest whole number
  • Fairfax/Ipsos is from media reports that don’t give all the details
    - “UnitedFuture, ACT, Mana and the Maori Party 2.1% between them”

As usual this can’t be projected into a possible election result, we are mid term with a lot to happen before an election in November next year. And there are often late movements in support leading up to an election.

National will be happy with consistently high support hovering around them being able to rule alone (but voters have never yet obliged on that under MMP). It’s the economy and less risky stewardship of Finance, and that’s likely to be a significant factor in the election.

Labour should be worried that after major policy releases their support is drifting back. Fairfax lay much of the blame on David Shearer (see below) but associating closely with Greens must also be impacting.

Greens will be disappointed they are not gaining support.

Labour+Greens combined are struggling to compete with National:

  • Labour+Green – 42, 45.1, 43.1
  • National – 49, 47.1, 49.1

A Roy Morgan poll is also due this week but will cover a slightly later time period.

Vernon Small (Fairfax): National leaving Labour in its wake

Halfway through its second term, Prime Minister John Key’s National is riding high on 49.1 per cent support, up 4.5 percentage points since February, and would be able to govern alone.

Over the same period Labour had shed 4.4 per cent to 31.9 per cent, with respondents pointing to Mr Shearer as weak and negative, Ipsos pollster Duncan Stuart said.

It marks a sharp reversal from our February poll when the Left and Right were neck and neck.

The survey, taken in the days after the May 16 Budget, suggests an improving economic mood has lifted National’s poll ratings.

Tracey Watkins (Fairfax): Shearer’s invisible cloak thinning

If the results of today’s Fairfax Media-Ipsos poll are a precursor to the next election, the news is all bad for Labour – and not just because the poll has it shedding support, though that is bad enough.

But because it reverses a trend that had Labour slowly clawing into contention.

What changed? To lean on a cliche, the economy, stupid.

And with optimism on the rebound, National’s message at the election in 2014 looks like an increasingly potent one – we’ve taken our medicine, done the hard yards, and we’re starting to reap the gains. Why put that all at risk?

But something else may also be changing. Mr Shearer may be morphing from Mr Invisible to something worse in voters’ eyes. Mr Negative.

The overall poll results and trends conflict with Patrick Gower’s take at 3 News – Poll: Labour, Greens close gap on Nationalthe 3 News results showed National and Labour+Greens closer than the others but the movements from their previous poll were within margins of error.

Two contrasting polls

One News Colmar poll:

National 43 (-6)
Labour 36 (+3)
Green 13 (+2)
NZ First 3 (-1)
Conservative 2 (+1)
Maori Party 1
United Future 1 (+1)

This is similar to the recent Roy Morgan poll.

3 News Reid Research goes against the trend in stark contrast:

National 49
Labour 30
Green 13
NZ First 3
Conservative 2
Maori party 1

Confidence in both Key and Shearer down a bit.

Contrasting result confusion may be an appropriate result- the polls were taken before the NZ Power announcement so the political climate may have changed somewhat and are now largely irrelevant.

How strong is asset sale opposition?

There’s little doubt there’s a lot of opposition to the proposed asset sales (Mixed Ownership Model). How strong is the opposition?

A recent 3 News Reid Research poll shows New Zealanders remain opposed to the Government’s planned asset sales.

The poll asked 1000 voters whether they agreed with the partial privatisations.

  • 62% disagreed
  • 35% agreed
  • 3.5% unsure

What is not apparent is how strong that opposition is. Obviously it wasn’t strong enough to reduce National’s vote at the last election (numbers increased slightly, the % was the highest recorded under MMP).

Labour used anti asset sales as it’s main election plank, and that wasn’t successful for them.

The Green Party has been against them too (they are anti a lot of things) but had then sense to concentrate their election campaign on more positive things, more jobs, reducing poverty and cleaning up water.

The Mana Party are strongly against, they were  involved in organising the recent hikoi against asset sales – but this was only modestly supported and lacked focus with many other things being included in the protest.

Long time commentator for the left Chris Trotter thought that the hikoi was not only unsuccessful, but it could be counter-productive:

A “Pessimistic Reformist” Considers The “Aotearoa Is Not For Sale” Demonstration.

Unfortunately, my own cold, hard analysis of the facts of last Saturday’s Aotearoa Is Not For Sale demonstration has led me to the very upsetting (and no doubt highly unpopular) conclusion that, if it was intended to demonstrate to the Government that its “partial” privatisation plans have generated the same level of public opposition as its earlier proposals to permit mining on New Zealand’s conservation estate, then it failed.

Many of the people I spoke to on the anti-privatisation march realised that there were “not enough” people to give the National-led Government pause, but added cheerily “still, it’s better than nothing”. Not necessarily. I would argue that Saturday’s march was, in fact, worse than nothing. By providing the Government with a vivid glimpse of its most vociferous opponents, and revealing just how few of them there really are (even in the country’s most populous city) the organisers of the anti-privatisation march have told the Government that it can now proceed without serious political risk.

It’s easy to see where the parties stand on MOM, but what do the wider public really think? Outside political forums there doesn’t seem to be a lot of protest, does that mean most of the opposition is quite mild?

Facebook is hardly brimming with opposition:

Someone has tried an online petition without much success:

Here’s another one:

I found these when trying to find the main petition, maybe it’s a bit too soon to find that easily. The wording has just been approved by the clerk of the house:

The agreed wording isDo you support the Government selling up to 49 per cent of Meridian Energy, Mighty River Power, Genesis Power, Solid Energy and Air New Zealand?

I guess we’ll hear more about this, but I think they have made a serious mistake with the wording, if you sign that you are agreeing with asset sales?

I’ve talked to someone who has always voted left and has always been against asset sales generally, but who just said:

But we’ve got to do something to get the country out of the shit!

They would poll against asset sales but with reservations.

So how strong is MOM opposition outside the political parties?

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