All posts tagged Roy Morgan

Key’s poll reaction

A curious headline in Stuffs’s Today in Politics:

KEY CHOOSES NOT TO REACT TO NEW ROY MORGAN POLL

Prime Minister John Key is not counting his chickens too soon after a Roy Morgan poll on Thursday had the Nats up 6 points to 46.5 at the expense of Labour, which had slipped down.

Mr Key said the Roy Morgan poll tended to ‘‘move around a hell of a lot’’ and he would wait and see what other polls said.

However,  he was not surprised that people had seen through the Labour and Greens’ power policy.

That sounds like a political reaction to me.

The poll had National Party on 46.5%, Labour on 31.5% (down 4%) and Greens 11% (down 2.5%).

One bouncy poll – see Roy Morgan poll bounce – doesn’t tell a whole story but it does look likely that National up and Labour and Greens down by significant amounts can be at least party attributed to the NZ Power announcement and subsequent publicity.

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by Pete George on May 4, 2013  •  Permalink
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Posted by Pete George on May 4, 2013

http://yournz.org/2013/05/04/keys-poll-reaction/

Roy Morgan poll bounce

The latest Roy Morgan poll shows either as bounce back or a reaction to the marriage bill and the NZ Power announcement and ensuing publicity.

National Party 46.5% (up 6% since April 1-14, 2013)
Maori Party 1.5% (down 0.5%)
ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged)
United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Labour is 31.5% (down 4%)
Greens are 11% (down 2.5%)
New Zealand First 4.5% (down 0.5%)
Mana Party 1% (up 0.5%)

Conservative Party of NZ 2% (up 0.5%)
Others 1% (up 0.5%).

Conservatives trending up (1.0, 1.5, 2.0) suggest a bit of improvement from the marriage bill.

National up substantially to 46.5 from an unusually low result last time of 40.5 after a previous 44.0 suggests they haven’t been damaged much if at all from either the marriage bill nor the power debate.

Both Labour and Greens down suggest a possible hit as a result of their power announcements.

And the response (hardly any) at The Standard suggests a bit of glumness on the left after their celebrations after the last poll.

The next poll in a forthnight will get a better idea if this is further poll instability or a trend as a result of the power debate/

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by Pete George on May 2, 2013  •  Permalink
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Posted by Pete George on May 2, 2013

http://yournz.org/2013/05/02/roy-morgan-poll-bounce/

National drop in latest Roy Morgan

The latest Roy Morgan fortnightly poll result will be concerning for National.

National Party 40.5% (down 3.5% since March 11-24, 2013)
Maori Party 2% (down 0.5%)
ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged)
United Future 0.5% (down 0.5%).

Labour is 35.5% (up 1%)
Greens are 13.5% (up 0.5%)
New Zealand First 5% (up 2%)
Mana Party 0.5% (unchanged)

Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (up 0.5%)
Others 0.5% (up 0.5%).

One News will have their latest poll results on Sunday night.

by Pete George on April 18, 2013  •  Permalink
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Posted by Pete George on April 18, 2013

http://yournz.org/2013/04/18/national-drop-in-latest-roy-morgan/

Roy Morgan poll – normal yoyo

The latest Roy Morgan poll shows the usual fluctuations:

National 43.5% (down 4% since late February)
Maori Party 2% (down 0.5%)
ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged)
United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Labour is 32.5% (up 2%)
Greens are 13.5% (up 1%)
New Zealand First 5% (up 2%)
Mana Party 0% (down 0.5%)

Conservative Party of NZ 2% (unchanged)
Others 0.5% (unchanged).

National remain within the mostly mid-fortyish fluctuations they dropped to since the 2011 election.

Labour remain within the low thirties fluctuations they have had since the 2008 election.

Roy Morgan March 2013

by Pete George on March 19, 2013  •  Permalink
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Posted by Pete George on March 19, 2013

http://yournz.org/2013/03/19/roy-morgan-poll-normal-yoyo/

Poll – Labour languish anguish

The latest Roy Morgan poll came out yesterday (last poll mid December):

  • National Party at 46% (up 0.5%)
  • Maori Party 2% (up 0.5%)
  • ACT NZ 0.5% (down 0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).
  • Labour is 31.5% (down 2%)
  • Greens are 12% (up 1%)
  • New Zealand First 5% (unchanged)
  • Mana Party 0.5% (down 0.5%)
  • Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (up 0.5%)
  • Others 0.5% (unchanged).

Perhaps it’s not surprising to see little change in a January poll.

National and Greens should be happy enough to be holding their ground (slight rises).

Labour’s lack of traction (down 2) should be causing concern. Party leadership won’t want to show that – in fact party leadership doesn’t seem to have wanted to show anything, they have been virtually invisible so far this year.

‘James Henderson’ has posted some trend line graphs at The Standard – If these trends continue – interestingly the post was originally called Faint Praise.

Not to beat a tired old drum, but Labour’s got to step up.

Apparently, after Labour’s numbers recovered from the election drubbing, senior MPs were going around saying ‘if these trends continue, we’ll win in a landslide’. But they didn’t continue, of course. All that was happening was Labour was returning to its post-Clark norm – 31%. If the Left is going to win, Labour needs to break out of that norm, and it starts with dropping the ‘this’ll be easy, it’s my destiny’ mentality those senior MPs were exhibiting.

There are the usual ‘polls are skewed’, media, core supporters must step up and be listened to, but it’s hard to avoid coming back to party leadership and strategies.

‘Olwyn’ said:

People have been saying this since before the 2008 election. However, in 2011, Labour actually did worse than the polls predicted. Labour’s problem is with the many previous voters who have lost confidence in them, not with the polling methods.

Repeating the same excuses and ther same old failures are likely to get the same results.

This may be (should be?) a make or break year for David Shearer – if he survives the party’s February leadership vote in caucus (which looks likley).

by Pete George on January 19, 2013  •  Permalink
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Posted by Pete George on January 19, 2013

http://yournz.org/2013/01/19/poll-labour-languish-anguish/

NZ First and coalition options

This is not from the man himself, nor is it definitive, but this was an interesting exchange on Twitter about New Zealand First and coalition possibilites:

@RealJoelRowan
Latest Roy Morgan looks like electing a parliament with a 1-party opposition and a 4 or 5 party government.

‏@Richard_Prosser
I’d put good money on the next Government being two-Party only.

@RealJoelRowan
Labour-Green? National-NZ First? Apart from an outside chance of Labour-NZ First, those are surely the only options.

@Richard_Prosser
I would concur with your list of three possibilities.

@RealJoelRowan
Do you think NZF would prefer to be the sole partner of National; if the other choice was second partner to Labour-Green?

@Richard_Prosser
Our previous position has been to rule out working with the Greens in Government

Take from that what you like.

The latest Roy Morgan Poll results covering November 12-25, 2012:

  • National Party to 45% (down 0.5%)
  • Maori Party 1% (down 1%)
  • ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged)
  • United Future 0.5% (unchanged)
  • Labour is 31.5% (down 1%)
  • Greens are 13.5% (up 3%)
  • New Zealand First 6.5% (up 1.5 %)
  • Mana Party 0% (down 1%)
  • Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (unchanged)
  • Others 0% (down 1%).
by Pete George on November 28, 2012  •  Permalink
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Posted by Pete George on November 28, 2012

http://yournz.org/2012/11/28/nz-first-on-coalition-options/

Shearer shouldn’t be pressured by Roy Morgan poll

The latest Roy Morgan poll is out. A Labour recovery will mean it shouldn’t add to current pressure on David Shearer’s pressure, although National have also bounced back.

  • National 45.5% (up 2)
  • Labour 32.5% (up 3.5)
  • Greens 10.5 (down 2.5)
  • NZ First 5% (down 2.5%)

This suggests that Labour’s 29% in the last poll was a bit of an outlier and they are now back to a similar level they have been for a few months.

There looks to be movement from Greens and NZ First to National and Labour.

http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4839/

National Labour Greens NZ First
August 13-26, 2012 44.5 32 14.5 5
August 27-September 9, 2012 46.5 31 12.5 4.5
September 10-23, 2012 43.5 33 11.5 5
September 24 – October 7, 2012 41.5 33.5 13.5 6.5
October 8-21, 2012 43.5 29 13 7.5
October 29 – November 11, 2012 45.5 32.5 10.5 5

The poll was taken up until Sunday, which is before all the leadership debate came out in the MSM.

by Pete George on November 15, 2012  •  Permalink
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Posted by Pete George on November 15, 2012

http://yournz.org/2012/11/15/shearer-shouldnt-be-pressured-by-roy-morgan-poll/

Could Roy Morgan rescue Shearer’s week?

It’s possible David Shearer’s leadership could swing on just one poll result.

A poll this far out from an election would not normally be seen as particularly important. Apart from a few people getting momentarily excited or despondent over one off moves the trends over time are seen as more important than single poll results.

But this week is different. Coming up to the Labour conference adds interest. And a Roy Morgan poll is due out in the next few days (they have been released each fortnight on a Wednesday, Thursday or Friday over the past few months).

The result of this poll could have a significant effect on the discussion on Shearer’s leadership.

If it’s a positive result for Labour it may squash the speculation on Shearer stepping down.

If it’s a bad result for Labour it may ramp up the noise, and on the pressure on him to stand down.

The most recent results:

National Labour Greens NZF
August 13-26, 2012 44.5 32 14.5 5
August 27-September 9, 2012 46.5 31 12.5 4.5
September 10-23, 2012 43.5 33 11.5 5
September 24 – October 7, 2012 41.5 33.5 13.5 6.5
October 8-21, 2012 43.5 29 13 7.5

If Labour get:

  • 33 or more: the pressure may come right off.
  • 31-32: there will still be plenty of murmerings but Shearer should ride it out.
  • 30: this is danger zone, it will confirm the previous drop as more than a one off outlier
  • 29: same but worse than 30, confirming a significant drop
  • 28 or less: it will be very difficult for Shearer to talk his way out of it

There could be a lot riding on this one poll for Shearer – and for Labour. Whether it directly impacts on the leadership or not it will be a discussion point at the conference.

The poll will have been taken up until Sunday. The leadership issue started in media and on blogs in the weekend but probably won’t have had much if any influence on this poll, so it will be a more fair measure if Labour’s poll progress.

Could one poll rescue or doom a leadership?

by Pete George on November 13, 2012  •  Permalink
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Posted by Pete George on November 13, 2012

http://yournz.org/2012/11/13/david-shearer-and-roy-morgan/

Watered down Maori support?

The latest Roy Morgan poll will put the spotlight on National’s performance and how the main parties stack up, but there’s also an interesting minor party move.

Minor party support in polls is very fickle, but there could be a sign on Maori Party and Mana Party support, in the wake of water rights publicity.

  • Maori Party 1.5% – down from 2.5%
  • Mana Party ^ (signifying less than 0.5%) – down from 1.5%

Greens, NZ First and United Future have all gone up, suggesting that people dissatisified with National and Labour are moving their support, but both Maori parties have not picked any of this support up, they have lost support.

Poll results are rounded to 0.5% which equates to 4 poll respondents.

Maori+Mana support dropped from 4% (31-37 people) to 1.5% (10-16 people).

Is this a sign that support for Maori parties has been watered down after publicity on water rights, disunity and a perception some Maori are opportunists trying to get anything they can out of Government?

If nothing else it highlights the fact that Maori/Mana support has dropped from about a quarter of the 16% who identify as Maori to less than an eighth.

by Pete George on October 11, 2012  •  Permalink
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Posted by Pete George on October 11, 2012

http://yournz.org/2012/10/11/watered-down-maori-support/

Conservative Party poll trend

An observation on Colin Craig’s Conservative Party:

Colin Craig’s party on downward slide in poll

Colin Craig’s anti-gay Conservative Party has continued to slide downwards in a leading poll since Louisa Wall’s marriage equality bill was pulled from the ballot.

The millionaire conservative Christian has claimed his support base has been increasing since he launched an attack Wall’s bill, on a crusade where he has made comments such as “it’s not intelligent to pretend gay relationships are normal” stated again and again his belief that being gay is a “choice” and even a result of child abuse.

Most recently he has carried out a leaflet drop in John Key’s Helensville electorate quoting an unnamed local he says is urging him to run against the Prime Minister because Key is “too gay” for the area.

They quote Roy Morgan poll results, which have included the Conservative Party for three polls:

  • 3.0% – July 9 to July 22
  • 1.5% – July 23 to -August 5
  • 0.5% – August 6 to August 26

Poll results for small parties can be quite volatile and the Conservative Party have only been included over two months, but this is an interesting hint of a trend over a period Colin Craig was very prominent in media.

by Pete George on September 10, 2012  •  Permalink
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Posted by Pete George on September 10, 2012

http://yournz.org/2012/09/10/conservative-party-poll-trend/

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