Labour 23.5% in latest Roy Morgan

The latest Roy Morgan:

  • National 51% (up 3%)
  • Labour Party 23.5% (down 4.5% )
  • Greens are 15% (up 3%)
  • New Zealand First 6% (up 0.5%)
  • Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%)
  • Act NZ (0.5%, down 0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%)
  • Internet-Mana Party 1.5% (down 1%)
  • Conservative Party of NZ 1% (unchanged)
  • Independent/ Others is 0% (down 0.5%)

More bad news for Labour. Very bad.This suggests that the Fairfax IPSOS poll may not have been an outlier.

Greens get a lift but it’s not much use if Labour sink.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 819 electors from June 30 – July 13, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5684-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-july-16-2014-201407160655

View interactive New Zealand Election charts here

New Zealand Voting Intention Summary

Minor moves in Roy Morgan poll

The latest Roy Morgan poll has minor moves with support levels similar to most other June polls.

  • National (48%, down 1.5%)
  • Labour Party 28% (unchanged)
  • Greens 12% (unchanged)
  • New Zealand First 5.5% (up 1.5%)
  • Internet-Mana Party 2.5% (unchanged)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%)
  • Conservative Party of NZ 1% (down 0.5%)
  • Act NZ (1%, up 0.5%)
  • United Future 0% (unchanged).
  • Independent/ Others 0.5% (down 0.5%).

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 817 electors from June 16-29, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Summary report

New Zealand Voting Intention Summary

PDF Summary

 

Roy Morgan poll more ‘normal’

The latest Roy Morgan poll is more in line with recent poll trends and fluctuations compared to what appears to be an outlier poll from Fairfax/IPSOS yesterday - Fairfax/IPSOS – National 56, Labour 23.

It is still an awful result for Labour with them at 28% with nothing of this week’s news covered by the polling period but it’s not as dire as Fairfax/IPSOS at 23%.

  • National 49.5% (-3)
  • Labour 28% (-1)
  • Greens 12% (+3)
  • NZ First 4% (-0.5)
  • MANA 1.5% (+1.0)
  • Internet 1.0% (+0.5)
  • Maori Party 1.0% (-0.5)
  • Conservative Party 1.5% (+0.5)
  • Ac t 0.5% (-0.5)
  • UnitedFuture 0% (no change)

National still look strong but are lacking potential partners.

Roy Morgan: Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 845 electors from June 2-15, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Green election prospects

In a Public Address discussion on polls and party positions – Hard News: Meanwhile back at the polls – the election chances of the Greens came up.

(Roy) Morgan has National up seven points to 52.5% support, and Labour and the Greens both down to a combined 38%. The Greens shed 4.5 points to slump to 9% support, their lowest level since 2011.

That’s a significant slip for the Greens at a time when they haven’t seemed to have done anything controversial.

But a friend put another interpretation to me on Friday: that the public has had a look at Internet-Mana and decided a potential centre-left coalition is really not to its taste.

That’s quite likely although the appointment of Laila Harre as Internet Party leader and the arrangement with MANA happened more than half way through the polling period.

It could also be accumulated wariness of the chances of too much Green influence in the next Government.

Bart Jansen commented:

As a point of anecdata, I had a conversation with an in-law who used to vote Labour but wouldn’t this time because he thought The Greens would then get to control the country.

That could be quite common, I’ve heard similar sentiments expressed.

It isn’t the first time I have heard that. It’s an interesting and frustrating situation for both The Greens and Labour. What’s weird is people don’t seem to apply the same fear and distrust to the influence of The Maori Party and ACT over National.

Greens have fourteen MPs and are pushing for more. That would be a significantly more influential number in a coalition than ACT’s current one/zero and the Maori Party’s three.

I think there is something strange going on out there particularly in the older (voting) public. It seems that there is very little acceptance that The Greens have shed their more extreme views and are now a much more serious party and hence more reasonable.

They are promoting themselves as more serious and more reasonable, but they are still widely seen as much bigger spenders if they get into Government, and there is a sizeable resistance to moving more towards a handout mentality that the Greens are linked to.

I don’t think Labour distancing themselves from The Greens will solve the problem, I suspect that what needs to happen is for both the parties to establish what the coalition will look like and just how much influence each party will have on overall policy. But I doubt anyone is keen to do that.

Greens seem to have been keen on doing that but Labour opted out.

Greens have fluctuated between 9% and 15% in polls, often through give and take with Labour’s results. Greens have benefited from Labour’s weaknesses and look a good bet to at least maintain last election’s improved result (but they have tended to poll better than they achieve in elections).

The next few polls should give us an idea of the impact of Internet-MANA who could take some Green support, but they also make the Greens look comparatively less scary – to many floating voters Labour+Greens doesn’t look as risky as Labour+Greens+MANA+Internet.

I think Greens have always had fairly widespread partial support, with many people being happy with a healthy Green voice in Parliament – but those some partial supporters are wary of too much Green say, especially on economic matters. As far as Greens are seen, environmentalist good, economist bad. So Greens through Norman pushing for wider credentials and especially promoting financial ambitions may attract some but it scares a lot more.

What Greens might benefit most from is if the Labour vote collapses as it did for National in 2002. But that won’t help the chances of a left leaning coalition.

Poll – National surge, left significantly down

A significant lift for National in the latest Roy Mrogan poll. Labour is still struggling to impress but more surprising is Greens dropping to  their lowest support since September 2011 )before the last election).

  • National 52.5% (+7)
  • Labour 29% (-1.5)
  • Greens 9% (-4.5)
  • NZFirst 4.5% (-1.5)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (+0.5)
  • Conservatives 1% (no change)
  • Act 1% (+0.5)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5)
  • Internet 0.5% (no change)
  • United Future 0% (no change)

Mana and the Internet Party are still shown as separate parties and haven’t made any inroads.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 849 electors from May 19 – June 1, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

RM 6 June 2014

Links:

This confirms the results as posted this morning –  Poll puzzle and Trotter mania

Poll puzzle and Trotter mania

A Roy Morgan poll result has been posted at Trade Me:

National 52.5% (+7)
Labour 29% (-1.5%)
Greens 9% (-4.5)
NZFirst 4.5% (-1.5%)
Maori Party 1.5% (+0.5%)
Conservatives 1% (no change)
Act 1% (+0.5%)
Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
Internet 0.5% (no change)

Requests to provide a link have been ignored and I can’t find anything from Roy Morgan to back this up.

In the meantime Chris trotter has posted a poll warning.

Keep Calm And Carry On: Why the Left should ignore the next round of poll results

BRACE YOURSELVES, COMRADES, for some horrendous poll results. The next round of surveys from Colmar Brunton, Reid Research, DigiPoll, Ipsos and Roy Morgan will almost certainly register a major slump in the Centre Left’s support and a concomitant rise in National’s numbers – quite possibly to 55 percent-plus. Labour and the Greens will both take nasty hits and the Internet-Mana Party (IMP) will be very lucky to make it above 1 percent. Apart from John Key, the only other person likely to be smiling is Winston Peters. – S

Trotter’s predictions are in line with this poll result except for NZ First. Curious.

Trotter then goes on at length – he seems to have let excitement over a possible left wing lurch via Kim Dotcom’s millions overcome any semblance of careful consideration.He at times sounds maniacal.

He concludes:

They should think of the next round of polls as the Right’s all-or-nothing artillery barrage – something to panic them into a headlong retreat. But, as the shells loaded with appalling results burst over the heads, they should simply tighten their helmet-straps and hold tight.

Behind them the IMP is marshalling its troops, stockpiling ammunition and gasoline, and unloading its tanks from their transporters. The Left has only to keep calm, carry on, and remember that blitzkrieg is a German word.

It’s absurd to claim polls are “the Right’s all-or-nothing artillery barrage”, they are conducted by independent polling companies.

Trotter is frantically talking up a political war. Very ironically he says “The Left has only to keep calm, carry on”.

Calm went out his window when big capitalist money was thrown at his socialist ambitions.

Roy Morgan poll – National bounce back

The latest Roy Morgan poll has a bit of a bounce back for National (45.45%) but they remain vulnerable, and Labour (30.5%) are still struggling in the low thirties.

  • National 45.5% (up 3%)
  • Labour 30.5% (down 0.5%)
  • Green Party 13.5% (down 0.5)
  • NZ First 6.0% (no change)
  • Maori Party 1.0% (no change)
  • Mana Party 1.0% (no change)
  • Conservative Party 1.0% (up 0.5)
  • ACT NZ 0.5% (no change)
  • Internet Party 0.5% (down 1)
  • UnitedFuture 0% (down 0.5)

Apart from National’s recovery there is negligible change, except for the Internet Party will be disappointed to drop back below 1%.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 873 electors from May 5-18, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Election 2014 Interactive Charts

These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.

In future weeks we will be adding key demographic variables to the charts including Age, Gender and Regional breakdowns to show which way key demographics are voting and which demographics each party needs to target to maximise their vote at this year’s New Zealand Election – called for September 20, 2014.

Roy Morgan May 22 2014

 

Poll volatility

The latest Roy Morgan poll continues a ‘trend’ of volatility for National and Greens this year and a lack of progress for Labour.

Roy Morgan polls so far this year:

National 43.5 47.0 48.0 48.5 45.5 43.0 48.5 42.5
Labour 33.5 33.0 30.0 30.5 31.5 32.0 28.5 31.0
Greens 12.5 11.0 12.0 10.5 14.0 13.0 11.5 14.5
NZ First 4.0 4.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 5.5 5.5 6.0
Conservative 2.5 1.5 1.0 2.5 1.5 2.5 2.0 0.5
Internet Party 0.5 1.0 1.5
Maori Party 2.0 1.5 0.5 1.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 1.0
Mana Party ^ 1.0 1.0 0.5 ^ 0.5 1.0 1.0
ACT ^ ^ 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
United Future 0.5 ^ 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5

Rounded to 0.5
^ is less than 0.5

Party summaries with predicted election support range based on current performance:

National

This is the lowest they have been this year but dropped below this six times last year, with a lowest of 40.5 (April) and a peak of 51 (July).

This volatility suggests a significant number of voters are soft supporters of National, sometimes. National have benefited from a variable and often disappointing performance by Labour but their fold on power looks precarious.

Predicted election range 40-50

Labour

Labour have bounced back from a worrying 28.5 in the last poll but at 31 are still failing to impress. Last year’s low was 29 (July) and they peaked at 37 for two consecutive polls in September when Cunliffe took over leadership. Since then they have dropped to mostly low thirties.

While National (and Greens) fluctuate Labour have been more consistent but this is not where they want to be in the polls, totally reliant on Greens,  probably also reliant on NZ First and possibly also needing any mix of of Mana, Internet Party and Maori party.

Predicted election range 25-35

Greens

Greens are back to their peak, last reached in November last year but they got to 14 in March. They should be happy with this and look well prepared for the election. Their low last year was 10 in July.

They are benefiting in polls from Labour’s weaknesses but they are relying on Labour to do well enough to give them their first shot at being in Government.

Predicted election range 10-15

NZ First

NZ First are looking good for making the threshold this election. Last year they ranged from 3 (several times) to 6.5 (August) but in the past have done better in elections than polls. They are benefiting from Labour’s weaknesses and National’s missteps.

Predicted election range 5-10

Internet Party

The Internet Party keep nudging up in the third poll and will be satisfied with this progress. The big questions are how much they will climb to and what effect any arrangement with Mana may have. It’s difficult to predict how much big money and a big presence of someone who can’t stand for election will end up impacting.

Predicted election range 0-5

Maori Party

Last year’s range was 0.5 (January) to 2.5 (February and March), this year they have been 0.5 to 2.

The Maori Party has never needed to worry about party vote in the past, they have always got more seats than their proportional allocation by winning electorates. This will be much harder for them this year with some predicting difficulty winning any of them. At least one electorate looks likely but this may bring their party vote into play for the first time. Will they seek party votes?

Predicted election range 1-3

Mana Party

Mana have mostly been 0.5 or 1 this year and last but got to 1.5 in July and dipped below 0.25 this March.

Hone Harawira may or may not be challenged strongly by Kelvin Davis in Te Tai Tokerau. If he retains his electorate they are in.  otherwise everything is up in the air depending on what arrangement they may come to with the Internet Party.

Predicted election range – depends on any arrangement they may make with the Internet Party.

ACT

ACT are virtually a new party this year. They have struggled between 0 and 1 last year and so far this year. They have intellectual rather than charismatic leadership so may have to rely on retaining Epsom with a new and relatively unknown candidate. They will have to find something different to impress beyond that.

Predicted election range 0.5-1

UnitedFuture

United Future have polled 0 to 0.5 last year and so far this year apart from one blip to 1 in March last year. Most of their election efforts will go in to retaining Ohariu which Peter Dunne might manage to pull off but he has had a difficult term. Party support doesn’t look like changing unless they can change dramatically and look like something other than Dunne.

Predicted election range 0.5-1

Conservative Party

Conservatives should be worried about the last poll dropping to 0.5 although they have been there before, in January and September last year. They have reached 2.5 several times including two polls ago.

Colin Craig’s dithering over what electorate to contest, his apparent concession that they need to get 5% and the lack of any connection with National makes their election looking likely to be another expensive folly. Money may pull something out of the hat but there’s no sign of magic yet.

Predicted election range 0.5-3

Source (PDF)

Poll bad for National, still not flash for Labour

National has dropped drastically to 42.5% in the latest Roy Morgan poll and although Labour have recovered they are still only 31%.

  • National 42.5% (down 6)
  • Labour 31.0% (up 2.5)
  • Greens 14.5 (up 3)
  • NZ First 6.0% (up 0.5)
  • Internet Party 1.5% (up 0.5%)
  • Maori Party 1 (unchanged)
  • Mana Party 1.0% (unchanged)
  • ACT NZ 0.5% ( unchanged)
  • United Future 0.5% (up 0.5)
  • Conservative Party 0.5% (down 1.5%).

The electorate does not seem very happy with the major parties.Bad for National, a bit of a bounce back for Labour but still not flash for them. The public don’t seem happy with either major party, Labour still – 33% has been their highest this year in the first poll of the year, and National again – two polls ago in March they were 43%, then up to 48.5 and now down to 42.5%.

The smaller parties benefit except for Conservatives.

A couple of interesting totals:

Labour 31  compared to Green+NZ First+Mana 21.5
If you add Internet Party that’s 31 to 24.

It would be interesting if they had an option “Pissed off with all”.

 

Roy Morgan 2 May 2014

Electors were asked:
“If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Pollon voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 847 electors from April 21–May 4, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 6% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.

Source (PDF)

Grim Easter poll for Labour

An awful poll result for Labour. National are back up again.

National 48.5% (+5.5%)
Labour 28.5% (-3.5%)
Greens 11.5% (-1.5%)
NZFirst 5.5% (no change)
Conservatives 2% (-0.5)
Maori Party 1% (-0.5)
Mana 1% (+.5)
Internet Party 1% (+0.5)
Act 0.5% (no change)
UF 0% (-0.5)
Other 0.5%

Roy Morgan poll

Roy Morgan 14-04-13

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