First post election poll

Roy Morgan has resumed polling. Results are less significant than usual.

  • National 43.5% (down 3.54% since the election)
  • Maori Party 2% (up 0.68%)
  • Act NZ 0.5% (down 0.19%)
  • United Future 0.5% (up 0.28%)
  • Labour Party 22.5% (down 2.63%)
  • Greens 17.5% (up 6.8%)
  • NZ First 7% (down 1.66%)
  • Conservative Party 5% (up 1.03%
  • Internet-Mana Party 1% (down 0.42%)
  • Independent/ Others 0.5% (down 0.35%

Roy Morgan says ” National support has dropped after each of John Key’s Election victories” and it won’t worry them too much at this stage of the election cycle.

Labour will be hoping that their leadership contest will raise their profile and win some support back.

Greens and Conservatives may be rueful that the poll wasn’t reflected in the election result, otherwise there is nothing remarkable.

Poll compared to election results this century:

RoyMorgan2014-10-17 tableChart of results since the 2011 election.

RoyMorgan2014-10-17 chart

Roy Morgan results.

Final poll results – table

All five pollsters have released their final week results, with results narrowing.

Election 2014 final poll results

Notes:

  • Polls ask “If an election was held today who would you vote for?”, they don’t try to predict election day voting.
  • It is common for movements in support late in campaigns due to tactical voting and undecideds deciding.
  • If ACT and United Future win electorates they may add more to seats than their share of vote.
  • If the Maori Party hold all three seats they will get more than their vote share. If they hold two seats they will be about proportional to their party vote according to the poll average.
  • If Conservatives don’t make the 5% threshold the other parties will increase their % share of seats.
  • If Hone Harawira loses Te Tai Tokerau Internet-Mana will not get any seats and their party vote will be ‘wasted’.
  • In 2011 National got 47.31% and with ACT and United Future seats were just able to make a majority.

Most of this polling will have occurred before Monday night’s “The Moment of Truth” meeting. NZ Herald recorded before and after results:

With 60 per cent of the poll done by Monday night, when the event happened, National was polling at 47.8 per cent, down on last week, said DigiPoll general manager Nandan Modak. From Tuesday it jumped to 49.1 per cent.

But I asked Andrew from Colmar brunton if he’d seen any change and he responded:

Was looking the whole time, even during.

Impossible to tell if any impact, with any degree of certainly.

I saw no increase for National compared to first two days, but it’s not that simple, as party support differs by day normally.

- @Unimatrix_0

Colmar Brunton explain ‘margin of error”:

The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5% have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9% points and ±1.4% points respectively, at the 95% confidence level.

See full final results – Final pre-election poll results

See also Coalition possibilities many and varied

Final pre-election poll results

All five polls have been published in the final week of the election campaign.

Stuff/IPSOS
No polling period given, poll date 17 September

  • National 47.7% (-5.1)
  • Labour 26.1% (+3.7))
  • Greens 12.0% (-1.0)
  • New Zealand First 6.6% (+2.2)
  • Conservative Party 4.5% (+0.9)
  • Maori Party 1.0% (+0.7)
  • Internet-Mana Party 0.9% (-0.5)
  • Act NZ 0.3% (-0.4)
  • United Future 0 (no change)

Poll results and poll report: Tight race ahead for Key and Cunliffe

Our poll provides a maximum sampling error of +/-3.1%-point, at the 95% confidence level. This means we can be 95% confident that the survey results are within 3.1% of the result had we surveyed the entire population of the NZ population, when the analysis is based on all respondents surveyed.

One News/Colmar Brunton
13-17 September

  • National 45.1% (-1)
  • Labour 25.2% no change)
  • Greens 12.5% (-2)
  • New Zealand First 8.1% (+1)
  • Conservative Party 4.4% (+0.4)
  • Maori Party 1.6% (+0.8)
  • Internet-Mana Party 1.8% (+0.4)
  • Act NZ 0.6%
  • United Future 0

Summary and Detailed Report (PDF)

The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5% have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9% points and ±1.4% points respectively, at the 95% confidence level.

NZ Herald/Digipoll
11-17 September

  • National 48.2% (-0.4)
  • Labour 25.9% (+1.3)
  • Green 11.1% (-0.4)
  • NZ First 8.4% (+0.3)
  • Conservatives 3.3% (-0.5)
  • Internet-Mana 1.0% (-1.3)
  • Maori 1.1% (+0.4)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.2)
  • UnitedFuture O.2% (+0.2)

Pre-poll report: DigiPoll: Conservatives fail to make 5 per cent threshold – again

Poll report: Moment of Truth gifts Team Key a late bounce in polls

The poll of 775 eligible voters was conducted between September 11 – 17 The Party Vote is of decided voters only. Undecided voters were 5.6 per cent. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 per cent.

“The Moment of truth” split:

The Kim Dotcom-inspired event in Auckland’s Town Hall that was supposed to end John Key’s career gave the National Party an immediate bounce in support this week, according to polling for the last Herald DigiPoll survey.

With 60 per cent of the poll done by Monday night, when the event happened, National was polling at 47.8 per cent, down on last week, said DigiPoll general manager Nandan Modak. From Tuesday it jumped to 49.1 per cent.

3 News/Reid Research
September 9-15

  • National 44.5% (-2.2)
  • Labour 25.6% (-0.5)
  • Greens 14.4% (+1.4)
  • New Zealand First 7.1% (+1.2)
  • Conservative Party 4.9% (+0.2)
  • Maori Party 1.1% (-0.2)
  • Internet-Mana Party 2.0% (0.3)
  • Act NZ 0.1% (-0.2)
  • United Future 0.1%

Report: Poll: Winston holds balance of power
(it’s far to close to call specific outcomes with Conservatives on 4.9% which is teetering either way)

Poll of 1000 voters was taken between September 9 and 15 with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent. 

Result table: http://www.reidresearch.co.nz/TV3+POLL+RESULTS.html

Roy Morgan:
September 1-14

  • National 46.5% (+1.5)
  • Labour 24.0% (-2.0)
  • Greens 13.5% (-2.5)
  • New Zealand First 8.0% (+2.0)
  • Conservative Party 3.5% (no change)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (+ 1.0)
  • Internet-Mana Party 1.0% (no change)
  • Act NZ 0.5% (-0.5)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5)
  • Independent/ Others 1.0% (no change)

Roy Morgan rounds to the nearest 0.5%

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 935 electors from September 1-14, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5% (up 1.5%) didn’t name a party.

Five polls – latest results

Stuff-IPSOS
September 11 (+/- from September 4)

  • National 52.8% (-1.4)
  • Labour 22.4% (-1.9)
  • Greens 13.0% (+0.1)
  • NZ First 4.4% (+0.8)
  • Conservative Party 3.6% (+1.2)
  • Internet-Mana 1.4% (+0.1)
  • Maori Party 1.0% (+0.7)
  • ACT Party 0.7% (+0.5)
  • UnitedFuture 0% (-0.1)

One News-Colmar Brunton
6-10 September 2014 (+/- from 30 August-3 September

  • National 46% (-4)
  • Labour 25% (-1)
  • Greens 14% (+3)
  • NZ First 7% (n/c)
  • Conservative Party 4% (+1)
  • Internet-Mana 1% (-1)
  • Maori Party 1% (+1)
  • ACT Party 1% (+1)
  • UnitedFuture 0% (n/c)

Rounded to nearest whole number.

NZ Herald-Digipoll
September 4-10

  • National 48.6% (-1.5)
  • Labour 24.6% (+0.8)
  • Greens 11.5% (+0.1)
  • NZ First 8.1% (+2.1)
  • Conservative Party 3.8% (no change)
  • Internet-Mana 2.3% (-1.2)
  • Maori Party 0.7% (+0.3)
  • ACT Party 0.3% (-0.1)
  • UnitedFuture 0% (-0.3)

3 News/Reid Research
September 2-8

  • National 46.7% (+0.3)
  • Labour 26.1% (+0.2)
  • Greens 13.5% (+0.4);
  • NZ First 5.9% (+0.1)
  • Conservatives 4.7% (+0.5)
  • Internet Mana 1.7% (no change)
  • Maori Party 1.3% (-0.7)
  • Act 0.3% (-0.3)
  • United Future 0.1% (no change)

Roy Morgan
August 18-31 2014

  • National 45% (-3)
  • Labour 26% (-1.5)
  • Greens 16% (+4.5)
  • Maori Party 0.5% (-0.5)
  • Act NZ 1% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0% (-0.5)
  • NZ First 6% (-0.5)
  • Internet-Mana Party 1.0% (- 1.5)
  • Conservative Party 3.5% (+2.5)
  • Independent/ Others 1.0% (unchanged).

Rounded to nearest 0.5

Five Poll Summary

Polls are coming out thick and fast leading up to the election showing quite a bit of variability.

Here are the latest results for each party.

National

  • Roy Morgan 45% (-0.3)
  • 3 News/Reid Research 46.4% (+1.4)
  • Stuff/IPSOS 54.2% (+3.4)
  • NZ Herald/Digipoll 50.1% (-0.6)
  • One News/Colmar Brunton 50% (+2)

Labour

  • Roy Morgan 26% (-1.5)
  • 3 News/Reid Research 25.9% (-0.5)
  • Stuff/IPSOS 24.3% (-1.8)
  • NZ Herald/Digipoll 23.8% (-0.3)
  • One News/Colmar Brunton 26% (-2)

Greens

  • Roy Morgan 16% (+4.5)
  • 3 News/Reid Research 12.6% ()-0.9)
  • Stuff/IPSOS 12.9% (+1.1)
  • NZ Herald/Digipoll 11.4% (n/c)
  • One News/Colmar Brunton 11% (-1)

NZ First

  • Roy Morgan 6% (-0.5)
  • 3 News/Reid Research 5.8% (-0.5)
  • Stuff/IPSOS 3.6% (-0.4)
  • NZ Herald/Digipoll 6.0% (+1.0)
  • One News/Colmar Brunton 7% (+1)

Conservative Party

  • Roy Morgan 3.5% (+2.5)
  • 3 News/Reid Research 4.2% (-0.4)
  • Stuff/IPSOS 2.4% (-0.3)
  • NZ Herald/Digipoll 3.8% (+0.5)
  • One News/Colmar Brunton 3% (n/c)

Internet-Mana

  • Roy Morgan 1% (-1.5)
  • 3 News/Reid Research 1.7% (-0.4)
  • Stuff/IPSOS 1.3% (-0.9)
  • NZ Herald/Digipoll 3.5% (+0.1)
  • One News/Colmar Brunton 2% (n/c)

Maori Party

  • Roy Morgan 0.5% (-0.5)
  • 3 News/Reid Research 2.0 (+1.3)
  • Stuff/IPSOS 0.3% (-0.4)
  • NZ Herald/Digipoll 0.4% (-0.6)
  • One News/Colmar Brunton <0.5%

ACT Party

  • Roy Morgan 1% (+0.5)
  • 3 News/Reid Research 0.6% (+0.3)
  • Stuff/IPSOS 0.2% (-0.5)
  • NZ Herald/Digipoll 0.4% (+0.1)
  • One News/Colmar Brunton <0.5

UnitedFuture

  • Roy Morgan 0% (-0.5)
  • 3 News/Reid Research 0.1% (-0.3)
  • Stuff/IPSOS 0.1% (n/c)
  • NZ Herald/Digipoll 0.3% (+0.1)
  • One News/Colmar Brunton <0.5

Polling periods vary but are ordered oldest to latest.

Rounding:
- Roy Morgan rounds to the nearest 0.5
- One News/Colmar Brunton rounds to the nearest whole number so parties not included are <0.5%

Roy Morgan poll two weekly, the others are currently polling weekly.

Updated 5/8/14 with latest One News/Colmar poll.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bad poll for National, Labour

The latest Roy Morgan poll has both National and Labour down into worrying territory with Greens and Conservatives being upwards movers:

  • National 45% (down 3%)
  • Greens 16% (up 4.5%)
  • Labour 26% (down 1.5%)
  • Maori Party 0.5% (down 0.5%)
  • Act NZ (1%, up 0.5%)
  • United Future 0% (down 0.5%)
  • NZ First 6% (down 0.5%)
  • Internet-Mana Party 1% (down 1.5%)
  • Conservative Party of NZ 3.5% (up 2.5%)
  • Independent/ Others is 1% (unchanged)

3% isn’t a huge move but 45% is into real worry territory for National, especially if it’s part of a downwards trend.

Labour appear to be either also tainted by Dirty Politics or just seen as crap. Greens are finally benefiting with their best result ever.

Internet-Mana seem to have lost traction while Conservatives are on the rise.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 762 electors from August 18-31, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 3.5% (down 3%) didn’t name a party.

Results: http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5767-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-september-3-2014-201409030312

PDF including table of results

RM Poll – National not damaged (yet)

The latest Roy Morgan polls has National up slightly and Labour down slightly.

  • National 48% (up 2%) 
  • Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%)
  • Act NZ 0.5% (unchanged)
  • United Future 0.5% (unchanged)
  • Labour 27.5% (down 2.5%)
  • Greens 11.5% (down 0.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (up 1.5%
  • Internet-Mana Party 2.5% (unchanged)
  • Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged)
  • Independent/ Others 1% (unchanged).

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5747-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-august-20-2014-201408200128

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 809 electors from August 4-17, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.

Variability of polls

Opinion polls can vary markedly, between pollsters and from poll to poll. They are a snapshot indicator of public opinion with known margins of error.

Yesterday’s Roy Morgan poll sparked some hope on the left with a big increase in Labour support and an almost as big drop in National support – from the previous poll. But if you look at a number of polls through the year the spikes and dips don’t seem so dramatic.

National dropped 5 to 46% but are within the range they have been polling with Roy Morgan this year (they 2-3 polls per month, usually fortnightly):

  • 43.5% in January, 43% in March, 42.5% in April/May, 45.5% in May
  • 47% in January, 48.5% in February and March/April, 52.5% in May/June, 51% in June/July
  • This week’s poll 46%

So a move from 51% to 46% doesn’t seem out of the ordinary. Nine out of fourteen times this year National’s poll to poll movement has been more than 3%, four out of fourteen times it has been more than 5%. Fluctuation is normal.

Labour rose 6.5 but their last result of 23.5% was suspected to be an outlier. This year:

  • 30% in February, 28.5% in March, 28% in June, 23.5% in July
  • 33.5% in January, 32% in March, 30.5% in May, 29% in May/June
  • This week’s poll 30%

Labour’s moves have been less dramatic with five of fourteen being 3% or more and the only 5+ moves being down to the low of 23.5% last poll and their bounce back to a more normal range this poll.

Greens poll lower so their movements could be expected to be smaller but they have bounced around too:

  • 11% in January, 11.5% in February, 9% in May
  • 12.5% in January, 14% in March, 14.5% in April/May, 15% in July
  • This week’s poll 12%

Six of fourteen movements have been 3% or more.

NZ First has ranged from 3.5% to 6% this year, the last four results being 4, 5.5, 6, 5 so what they might get in the election is anyone’s guess. Small parties often move proportionally more leading into an election.

Internet-Mana claimed a big move rising from 1.5% to 2.5% – but since their alliance was announced they have polled at 2.5, 2.5, 1.5, 2.5 so the movement this poll could be insignificant.

Movements of support from one poll to another often make the headlines but they don’t mean much. It’s normal for results to bounce around.

A pollster might be able to suggest how much this is expected poll variability and how much might be volatile public opinion.

National down, Labour up in latest poll

National have dropped significantly and Labour have recovered in the latest Roy Morgan poll, but Greens are also down reducing the right to left swing.

Volatility and uncertainty are apparent.

  • National 46% (down 5%)
  • Labour Party 30% (up 6.5%)
  • Greens 12% (down 3)
  • NZ First 5% (down 1%)
  • Internet-Mana Party  2.5% (up 1%)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%)
  • ACT NZ (0.5%, unchanged)
  • United Future 0.5% (unchanged)
  • Conservative Party of NZ 1% (unchanged)
  • Independent/ Others 1% (up 1%)

The string of embarrassments for National seem to have taken their toll. They will be getting a bit anxious after this result.

Internet-Mana are climbing on the back of sustained publicity and promotions.

The Conservatives are nowhere near the levels claimed by Colin Craig and Christine Rankin.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 818 electors from July 14-27, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.

Roy Morgan poll 31 July 2014

New Zealand Voting Intention Summary

Labour 23.5% in latest Roy Morgan

The latest Roy Morgan:

  • National 51% (up 3%)
  • Labour Party 23.5% (down 4.5% )
  • Greens are 15% (up 3%)
  • New Zealand First 6% (up 0.5%)
  • Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%)
  • Act NZ (0.5%, down 0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%)
  • Internet-Mana Party 1.5% (down 1%)
  • Conservative Party of NZ 1% (unchanged)
  • Independent/ Others is 0% (down 0.5%)

More bad news for Labour. Very bad.This suggests that the Fairfax IPSOS poll may not have been an outlier.

Greens get a lift but it’s not much use if Labour sink.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 819 electors from June 30 – July 13, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5684-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-july-16-2014-201407160655

View interactive New Zealand Election charts here

New Zealand Voting Intention Summary

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