lprent on Roy Morgan – “your usual shallow analysis”

In response to the latest Roy Morgan poll – see National 54% in May Roy Morgan poll – lprent looks like he has rushed into an analysis a bit carelessly.

[lprent: Don’t get your panties in a twist. It isn’t that interesting, Just looks like the usual outliers that RM’s small sample size throws out. This poll is unlikely… It is too big a jump and the explanations for it are pure trash.

Caution is warranted for a single poll with a big shift in support.

But Roy Morgan state “both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 866 electors from May 4-17, 2015″ – that’s not a notably small sample size.

That was a 8.5% shift to National pulling support from every other party. It doesn’t seem likely.

Allowing for a margin of error of about 3.5% this could be an unlikely high but National got 52% in January, then 49%, 46.5%, 45.5% and now 54% so fluctuations over a wide range are normal.

The usual shit analysis at Roy Morgan as well. Talking about the budget last week when their polling period was May 4-17, 2015 and the budget wasn’t released until the 21st. Even the damn spin wouldn’t have been there for most of the polling period.

The headline states “Positive news in lead up to New Zealand Budget helps National”, and in his analysis  Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says: “National has enjoyed a strong increase in support in the lead up to last week’s New Zealand Budge”.

They are clearly referring to the lead up to the budget, which happened through the polling period.So the shit analysis is from lprent.

If it carries on through the next couple of polls I will get interested. But I’d expect a big adjustment down in the next poll.

Why expect a big adjustment down? Anything could happen in June – including a negative response to Labour’s poor budget response.

It is a pity that Roy Morgan are only releasing polls every month rather than every two weeks now. It means that their small sample size has 4 weeks until it corrects.

They have been polling monthly since the election last September, far more often than anyone else. So they provide the most useful data for seeing trends and fluctuations.

Again “their small sample size” is inaccurate.

Still good for a spinner to get excited about. I’d expect to hear you sprout your usual shallow analysis over the next weeks eh?]

Yeah. Ironic.

National 54% in May Roy Morgan poll

National have jumped to 54% in the May Roy Morgan poll – and this was conducted May 4-17 so before the budget.

  • National 54% (up 8.5%)
  • Maori Party 1% (down 0.5)
  • ACT 1% (no change)
  • United Future 0% (no change)
  • Labour 25.5%  (down 2)
  • Greens 10.5% (down 3)
  • NZ First 6% (down 2.5)
  • Conservative Party 1% (no change)
  • Internet/Mana 0% (no change)
  • Independent/others 1% (down 0.5)

Labour + Green + NZ First = 42% – that’s a long way away from a joint majority. This is an awful result for the opposition parties generally.

Polls can swing but it’s unlikely the budget will have harmed National support.

Labour are in dire territory, polled before their poor handling of the budget.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 866 electors from May 4-17, 2015. Of all electors surveyed 5% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.

Source: Positive news in lead up to New Zealand Budget helps National Government support jump to 54% – highest since October 2011

National and Labour down in Roy Morgan poll

The latest Roy Morgan polls has drops for both National and Labour with Greens and NZ First up. This may reflect the respective attention the parties got in the Northland by election.

  • National 45.5% (down 1%)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (down 0.5%)
  • Act NZ 1% (unchanged)
  • United Future 0% (unchanged)
  • Labour 27.5% (down 3.5%)
  • Greens 13.5% (up 2.5%)
  • NZ First 8.5% (up 2.5%)
  • Conservative Party 1% (down 0.5%)
  • Internet-Mana Party 0% (unchanged)
  • Independent/ Others 1.5% (up 0.5%).

National won’t be too worried with a slight easing but Labour may be a bit worried, it’s the first drop since Andrew Little took over leadership. It’s just one poll but the Northland rock and a hard place may have knocked them.

It demonstrates one of Labour’s problems – if their potential support partners go up they go down.

RoyMorgan2015April

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 888 electors from April 6-19, 2015. Of all electors surveyed 4% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Roy Morgan:

Jump in New Zealand concerns about terrorism – poll

Roy Morgan has surveyed New Zealanders on what they think is the most important problem facing the world. The biggest change is terrorism, which has jumped from 8% to 23% since December 2014.

In New Zealand, a cross-section of 1,002 men and women aged 14 or over were interviewed by telephone in March 2015. Respondents were asked: “Firstly, what do you think is the most important problem facing the World today?” and“What do you think is the most important problem facing New Zealand today?” The research conducted was bothqualitative (in that people were asked to use their own words) and quantitative (in that the ‘open-ended’ responses were analysed and ‘coded’ so that the results could be counted and reported as percentages).

Most Important Problem Facing the World – Terrorism:

  • October 2013 – 2%
  • February 2014 – 2%
  • May 2014 – 2%
  • August 2014 – 4%
  • December 2014 – 8%
  • March 2015 – 23%

Most Important Problem Facing the World – Totals

  • War & Terrorism/Security Issues – 41% (up 12%)
  • Economic Issues – 25% (down 5)
  • Social Issues – 13% (down 1)
  • Environmental Issues – 9% (down 3)
  • Government/Public Policy/Human Rights Issues – 5% (down 4)
  • Energy/Resource Issues 2% (up 1)

The Sydney Siege happened on 16 December 2014. The Charlie Hebdo shootings happened on January 7 January 2015. The 1080 milk formula threat in New Zealand was first publicised on 10 March. It’s not possible to know why concerns about terrorism have jumped but these events may have had an accumulative effect.

The environment and energy/resources are not as dire in most people’s minds as the Greens seem to think.

Neither is Religion/Religious conflicts as big an issue as a few people at Kiwiblog seem to think, as this breakdown shows:

WAR & TERRORISM/ SECURITY ISSUES

  • Terrorism 23% (up 15%)
  • Wars & Conflicts/Unrest 12 % (unchanged0
  • Religion/Religious Conflict 3% (down 4%
  • Peace/Lack or World Peace 2% (unchanged)
  • TOTAL 41% (up 12%)

ECONOMIC ISSUES

  • Poverty/ The Gap Between Rich & Poor/ Imbalance of Wealth 14% (down 2)
  • Cost of Living/ Increasing Prices/ Financial Hardship/ Household Debt 3% (down 3)
  • Economy/ Financial Crisis/ Recession 3% (down 3)
  • Over-population 2% (down 1)
  • Unemployment/ Job Security 2% (up 1)
  • Food Shortages/ Feeding the People 1% (1)
  • TOTAL 25% (down 5)

Remember that this is a First World view on the world. To most here Third World problems seem largely out of sight, out of mind.

SOCIAL ISSUES

  • Social Apathy/ Lack of Values/ Lack of Empathy Toward Others/ Intolerance 5% (down 1)
  • Greed 3% (down 1)
  • Violence 2% (unchanged)
  • Crime/ Law & Order 1% (unchanged)
  • Drug/ Alcohol Issues/ Drink Driving 1% (unchanged)
  • Lack of Religious or Spiritual Values 1% (up 1)
  • Racism/ Racial Tension 1% (unchanged)
  • TOTAL 13% (down 1)

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES

  • Climate Change/ Global Warming/ Ozone Layer/ Greenhouse Effect 5% (down 1)
  • Environmental Issues/ Changes/ Degradation 2% (down 1)
  • Famine/ Hunger/ Starvation 2% (unchanged)
  • Environmental Pollution 1% (unchanged)
  • Natural Disasters – Earthquakes/ Tsunamis/ Floods/ Volcanic Eruptions 0% (down 1)
  • TOTAL 9% (down 3)

GOVERNMENT/ PUBLIC POLICY/ HUMAN RIGHTS ISSUES

  • Energy Crisis/ Fuel Shortage/ Need Renewable Energy Sources 1% (unchanged)
  • Shortage of Resources/ Consumption of Resources 1% (up 1)
  • Water Shortage/ Clean Water 1% (up 1)
  • TOTAL 2% (up 1)

Other 1%, Can’t Say 4%, totals may not add up as they are rounded.

Margin of error on a sample size of 1000:

  • 40%-60% ±3.2
  • 25% or 75% ±2.7
  • 10% or 90% ±1.9
  • 5% or 95% ±1.4

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Poll on ‘Problems facing New Zealand’

Roy Morgan has a poll on what New Zealanders think are the major problems facing us.

When asked about the most important problem facing New Zealand:

  • Economic issues 40% (down 1)
  • Government/ Public policy/ Human rights issues 26% (up 5)
  • Social issues 15% (down 5)
  • Environmental issues 7% (up 1)

With National being seen as the strongest party on dealing with the economy this isn’t a surprising result. And it suggests why the Greens struggle to get traction with the environment a relatively low concern.

A breakdown of the most important Economic Issues facing New Zealand:

  • Poverty / The gap between the rich and the poor 18%  (down 2)
  • Unemployment/ Job security 8% (up 2)
  • Cost of living/ Increasing prices/ Financial hardship/ Household debt 5% (unchanged)
  • Economy/ Financial crisis/ Recession/ Inflation/ Exchange rate/ High dollar 5% (down 1%)
  • Low Wages 3% (up 1)
  • Christchurch Recovery & Rebuilding 1% (up 1)
  • Foreign Ownership/ Selling our Assets 1% (unchanged)
  • Need to Increase Exports 1% (down 1)

A breakdown of the most important Government/Public Policy/Human Rights Issues facing New Zealand:

  • Housing shortage/ Housing affordability 10% (up 4)
  • Government/ Politicians/ Leadership/ Government Spending 9% (up 1)
  • Education 2 (up 1)
  • Health Issues/ Disease/ Obesity/ Poor Health 2% (up 1)
  • Benefits Given to the Maori/ Inequality Between Maori and Other Ethnic Groups 1 (unchanged)
  • Health System/ Shortage of Doctors/ Health Services 1% (up 1)
  • Immigration/ Refugees 1% (down 1)

A breakdown of the most important Social issues facing New Zealand:

  • Child Abuse/ Lack of Care of Children/ Bringing up Children Wrongly 3% (up 1)
  • Social Apathy/ Lack of Values/ Lack of Empathy Toward Others/ Intolerance 3% (down 1)
  • Breakdown of Family Unit/ Family Violence 2 (unchanged)
  • Crime/ Law & Order 2% (unchanged)
  • Drugs/ Alcohol Issues/ Drink Driving 1% (unchanged)
  • Greed/ Materialism 1% (unchanged)
  • Racism/ Racial Tension 1% (unchanged)
  • Social Welfare System 1% (unchanged)
  • Violence/ Gangs 1% (unchanged)

The problem with this is people may have varying levels of concern about different issues but can only choose one.

These findings come from a special New Zealand Roy Morgan survey conducted with New Zealanders aged 14+ asked what are the most important issues facing New Zealand and the World today.

In New Zealand, a cross-section of 1,002 men and women aged 14 or over were interviewed by telephone in March 2015. Respondents were asked: “Firstly, what do you think is the most important problem facing the World today?” and“What do you think is the most important problem facing New Zealand today?” The research conducted was bothqualitative (in that people were asked to use their own words) and quantitative (in that the ‘open-ended’ responses were analysed and ‘coded’ so that the results could be counted and reported as percentages).

Labour up, National down in Roy Morgan poll

The latest Roy Morgan poll:

  • National 49% (down 3%)
  • Maori Party 1.0% (down 0.5%)
  • Act NZ 0% (down 1%)
  • United Future 0% (unchanged)
  • Labour Party 30% (up 4% – their highest level of support since July 2014)
  • Greens 12% (up 1%)
  • NZ First 6% (unchanged)
  • Conservative Party1.5% (down 0.5%)
  • Internet-Mana Party 0% (unchanged)
  • Independent/ Others 0.5% (unchanged).

This poll was held on February 2-15 (the previous one was (January 5-18, 2015) – most of the polling will have been done during John Key’s awful week last week and before Andrew Little’s awful week this week.

Labour will be hoping this recovery trend continues. If they’re lucky their hiccups this week will be forgotten by the next polling period.

RoyMorgan2015February2-15

And Government confidence is down.

Coinciding with the decrease in support for the Government the latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen significantly to 124pts (down 20pts). This is the lowest the NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has been since October 2013.

Coinciding with the decrease in support for the Government the latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen significantly to 124pts (down 20pts). This is the lowest the NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has been since October 2013.

Roy Morgan includes good ‘margin of error’ information:

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40%-60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
500 ±4.5 ±3.9 ±2.7 ±1.9
1,000 ±3.2 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.4
1,500 ±2.6 ±2.2 ±1.5 ±1.1
2,000 ±2.2 ±1.9 ±1.3 ±1.0

The Roy Morgan sample size this poll was 891.

National up in silly season poll

The latest Roy Morgan poll is of minor interest but I wouldn’t bet the year on it – National up to 52%, they same as they were mid-last year.

  • National 52% (up 6% since November 24-December 7, 2014)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (down 0.5%)
  • Act NZ 1% (down 0.5%)
  • United Future  0% (unchanged)
  • Labour Party 26% (down 1%)
  • Greens 11% (down 1%)
  • NZ First 6% (down 1%

Apart from National hey are insignificant changes especially for this time of year.

  • Conservative Party of NZ 2% (down 0.5%)
  • Internet-Mana Party alliance 0% (down 1%)
  • Independent/ Others 0.5% (down 0.5%)

Internet-Mana down to 8% is one of the more notable results. The Internet Party seems doomed but Mana has been dragged right down with them.

Source: National surges in 2015 – Biggest lead since September 2014 NZ Election

RoyMorgan2015-1

National down, Labour up in latest Roy Morgan poll

This may be the last political poll of the year, from Roy Morgan:

  • National 46% (down 3.5% in a month)
  • Labour Party 27% (up 3%)
  • Greens 12% (down 2.5%)
  • NZ First 7% (up 0.5%)
  • Maori Party 2% (up 1%)
  • Act NZ 1.5% (up 1%)
  • United Future 0% (unchanged)

Parties outside Parliament:

  • Conservative Party 2.5% (up 0.5%)
  • Internet-Mana Party alliance 1% (up 0.5%
  • Independent/ Others is 1% (down 0.5%).

National won’t be too worried about slipping at this stage of the term. They and key particularly have had a rough few weeks.

Andrew Little and Labour supporters will be encouraged by their rise, but 27% is still not a good number. An early impression next year will be important.

Greens are back down as Labour went up. There’s little of note with the rest.

RoyMorgan2014-12-12

First post election poll

Roy Morgan has resumed polling. Results are less significant than usual.

  • National 43.5% (down 3.54% since the election)
  • Maori Party 2% (up 0.68%)
  • Act NZ 0.5% (down 0.19%)
  • United Future 0.5% (up 0.28%)
  • Labour Party 22.5% (down 2.63%)
  • Greens 17.5% (up 6.8%)
  • NZ First 7% (down 1.66%)
  • Conservative Party 5% (up 1.03%
  • Internet-Mana Party 1% (down 0.42%)
  • Independent/ Others 0.5% (down 0.35%

Roy Morgan says ” National support has dropped after each of John Key’s Election victories” and it won’t worry them too much at this stage of the election cycle.

Labour will be hoping that their leadership contest will raise their profile and win some support back.

Greens and Conservatives may be rueful that the poll wasn’t reflected in the election result, otherwise there is nothing remarkable.

Poll compared to election results this century:

RoyMorgan2014-10-17 tableChart of results since the 2011 election.

RoyMorgan2014-10-17 chart

Roy Morgan results.

Final poll results – table

All five pollsters have released their final week results, with results narrowing.

Election 2014 final poll results

Notes:

  • Polls ask “If an election was held today who would you vote for?”, they don’t try to predict election day voting.
  • It is common for movements in support late in campaigns due to tactical voting and undecideds deciding.
  • If ACT and United Future win electorates they may add more to seats than their share of vote.
  • If the Maori Party hold all three seats they will get more than their vote share. If they hold two seats they will be about proportional to their party vote according to the poll average.
  • If Conservatives don’t make the 5% threshold the other parties will increase their % share of seats.
  • If Hone Harawira loses Te Tai Tokerau Internet-Mana will not get any seats and their party vote will be ‘wasted’.
  • In 2011 National got 47.31% and with ACT and United Future seats were just able to make a majority.

Most of this polling will have occurred before Monday night’s “The Moment of Truth” meeting. NZ Herald recorded before and after results:

With 60 per cent of the poll done by Monday night, when the event happened, National was polling at 47.8 per cent, down on last week, said DigiPoll general manager Nandan Modak. From Tuesday it jumped to 49.1 per cent.

But I asked Andrew from Colmar brunton if he’d seen any change and he responded:

Was looking the whole time, even during.

Impossible to tell if any impact, with any degree of certainly.

I saw no increase for National compared to first two days, but it’s not that simple, as party support differs by day normally.

– @Unimatrix_0

Colmar Brunton explain ‘margin of error”:

The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5% have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9% points and ±1.4% points respectively, at the 95% confidence level.

See full final results – Final pre-election poll results

See also Coalition possibilities many and varied

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