First poll for 2016

While it’s doubtful many people will be thinking much about politics in January Roy Morgan have released their first poll of the year. There’s little of note in this result with only minor moves, except perhaps for the Maori Party support doubling.

  • National 47% (down 2)
  • Labour 25.5% (down 1)
  • Greens 14% (up 1)
  • NZ First 6.5% (up 0.5)
  • Maori Party 3% (up 1.5)
  • Conservative Party 1% (up 0.5)
  • ACT 0.5 (no change)
  • United Future 0% (down 0.5)
  • Internet-Mana 0% (no change)
  • Independent/Others 0% (no change)

National won’t be too worried about 47%, around what they got in the 2014 election, but Labour should be concern about their decline.


New Zealand:

  • heading in the right direction 59.5% (no change)
  • heading in the wrong direction 28% (down 3)

Roy Morgan: New Zealand voting intention January 2016

Poll: 91% support medicinal cannabis

A Roy Morgan poll  shows A massive majority of Australians support the legalisation of medicinal marijuana.

The question, ‘In your opinion should the use of marijuana for medicinal purposes be made legal or remain illegal?’

  • Yes, legal: 91%
  • No, not legal: 7%
  • Can’t say: 2%

Interestingly the 50+ age group showed stronger support:

  • 14-24: 85%
  • 25-39: 90%
  • 50+: 94%

This may be due to older people seeing more chance of needing and benefiting from medicinal use of cannabis based products.

Older age groups are also more likely to be voters.

** This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over three nights, October 20-22, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross section of 644 Australians aged 14+.

Roy Morgan December poll

This may be the last political pol of the year, and is the last monthly poll from Roy Morgan.

  • National 49% (unchanged)
  • Labour 28.5% (down 1)
  • Greens 13% (up 1)
  • NZ First 6% (unchanged)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (down 0.5)
  • ACT Party 0.5% (unchanged)
  • UnitedFuture 0.5% (up 0.5)
  • Conservative Party 0.5% (unchanged)
  • Internet/Mana 0% (down 0.5)
  • Independent/Others 0.5% (up 0.5)

National will be happy to be holding up, as will Greens.

Labour should be disappointed with their last result for the year. People weren’t inspired by the reshuffle nor anything else.

That’s not a good sign for either the Internet Party (who apparently had an annnual conference recently) nor MANA – I can’t even find their website.

Poll period November 23 – December 6 2015.



Source – Roy Morgan

Massive poll support for medical cannabis

This is in Australia but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar result here – a Roy Morgan poll finds A massive majority of Australians support the legalisation of medicinal marijuana.

The poll asked:  ‘In your opinion should the use of marijuana for medicinal purposes be made legal or remain illegal?’

  • Yes 91%
  • No 7%
  • Can’t say 2%

That’s a significant result.

Some breakdowns on who voted yes:

  • Men 90%
  • Women 92%
  • Age 50-64 94%
  • Age 65 and older 94%
  • Age 14-25 85%

Older people are probably more concerned about the availability of medicines.

By State:

  • West Australia 97%
  • New South Wales, Victoria 92%
  • Queensland, South Australia 89%

Whichever way you look at it this is a huge majority support for medical cannabis.

The poll was taken over three nights on 22-24 October 2015 and asked 644 Australians.

National up, Labour/Green down in October Roy Morgan poll

In the volatile Roy Morgan poll National are up 5% and Labour + Greens down 5.5% in their October poll.  The Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement was announced about half way through the polling period but it doesn’t cover this week when Labour’s abysmal TPPA positioning became apparent.

  • National 50% (up 5)
  • Labour 29% (down 2)
  • Greens 11.5% (down 3.5)
  • NZ First 6.5% (up 1)
  • Maori Party 0.5% (down 1)
  • ACT  0.5% (unchanged)
  • Conservative Party 0.5% (down 0.5)
  • Internet-Mana 0.5% (unchanged)
  • United Future 0% (down 0.5)
  • Independent/others 1% (up 1)

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 882 electors in October 2015. Of all electors surveyed 7% (down 1%) didn’t name a party.


Details: National support jumps in October with signing of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and leads potential Labour/Greens alliance

Roy Morgan poll bounces, National down, Labour & Greens up

The fluctuations of Roy Morgan polls continues with National dropping back down, this time to 44.5%, while Labour bounce back to 31%. Greens have also bounced up, to 15%

  • National 44.5% (down 6)
  • Labour 31% (up 4)
  • Greens 15% (up 4)
  • NZ First 5.5% (down 2.5)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (unchanged)
  • Act NZ 0.5% (unchanged)
  • United Future 0.5% (up 0.5)
  • Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (up 1%)
  • Internet-Mana Party alliance 0.5% (unchanged)
  • Independent/ Others 0% (down 1%)

Polling period August 31 to September 13, 2015.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 876 electors in September 2015. Of all electors surveyed 8% (up 2.5%) didn’t name a party.

Confidence rating:

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased to 128.5pts (up 8.5pts) in September. An increasing majority of NZ electors 58% (up 4%) say NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 29.5% (down 4.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. NZ Government Confidence is far higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence is at only 90pts.


Government versus Opposition

In response to the latest Roy Morgan poll result at The Standard:


On the Government’s side:
– Key understands that wall to wall media coverage is the best way to stay popular
– Chinese voter intentions will harden to National in Auckland
– The National front bench are firing, and providing Key with strong coverage
– TPP protests appear not to have touched underlying popularity

On the Opposition:
– They Opposition remain a long way from looking like an alternative government
– The rural economy has not yet fully soured. (It will)
– Criticising real estate capital growth is not popular
– Winston Peters continues to get better media traction than Little
– Greens have no MSM profile currently

It’s making 2017 look hard for the Progressive side of the fence.
Should have been firing by now.

Colonial Rawshark:

I agree with all your points. Previously I had thought your statements around the ‘inevitable decline’ of the Key Govt as probably being a bit too early and a bit too optimistic.

Colonial Rawshark (Tat Loo) is a maverick LOabour realist.

This seems like a reasonable assessment of the current state of play.

Blog comments on the unpublished polls

Whale Oil broke the Labour internal polling story.I posted on The Standard’s take on it in Labour’s internal polling.


Yesterday we published a couple of posts highlighting the stupidity of anyone believing the UMR polls, mainly because they are so far out of sync with the TV One & TV3 Polls. Remember that the two TV polls had Labour 15% behind National, yet Labour are now claiming their internal polls are at 41-35, a gap of 6.

The halfwits on the left immediately seized on this as a panic attack on Whaleoil, rather than a deliberate take down of a poll that has no credibility. Chris Trotter wrote at the Daily Bog:

“Something Very, Very Different”: Why rumours of Labour’s internal poll numbers are giving the Nats the heebie-jeebies

Who knows which National Party Chris is thinking about but the only thing Labour’s rigged poll has given National is a lot of laughs.

He also claims National polling had different results:

David Farrar occasionally takes time out of his hectic travel schedule to do some polling. He managed to squeeze in a bit of polling before heading to Fiji, and determined that Labour’s dog whistle hadn’t been heard at all, which is why National did not mount a vigorous attack on Labour’s racism.

That is also hearsay on unpublished polling so can’t be relied on.

To Chris Trotter’s post at The Daily Blog – “Something Very, Very Different”: Why rumours of Labour’s internal poll numbers are giving the Nats the heebie-jeebies

CAMERON SLATER is appealing directly to members of Labour’s caucus on his Whaleoil blog. Why? Because he’s just got wind of Labour’s internal poll numbers. According to Cameron: “Their internal polls show something very, very different from the publicly available polls. Apparently the gap between Labour & National is about 6 or 7 percent when the public polls have it at 15%.”

This can only mean that, in the usually highly accurate UMR poll, Labour is positioned somewhere between 34-36 percent and the National Party somewhere between 40 and 42 percent. At that level of support, it’s ‘Game Over!’ for John Key’s government. No wonder Cameron is doing everything he can to sow doubt in the minds of Andrew Little’s colleagues.

Clearly, these results have brought on an attack of the heebie-jeebies in National’s ranks. How else to explain the usually very crafty Mr Slater’s tactical lapse? Calling people’s attention to what he’s heard about Labour’s internal polling – when it’s this good – has given a major boost to the Left’s morale. It’s also boosted the credibility of the other big rumour doing the rounds about UMR’s polling: the one that puts the combined Labour-Green vote at 49 percent.

Cameron’s post may also serve to confirm the rumours about National’s own internal polling. According to these, Labour’s much criticised ‘China Play’ almost immediately began shaking erstwhile Labour voters loose from National’s tree in large numbers.

So there are contradictory ‘rumours’ about party internal polling. Surprise surprise. Which political pundit to believe? I’m very sceptical about what any of them say.

So, let us assume, purely for the sake of argument, that all the rumours are true and all the numbers are correct. It would mean that National has shed 6-7 percentage points directly to Labour. Interestingly, this is exactly what the Roy Morgan Poll of 17 July indicated.

It had National down 6.5 points to 43 percent, Labour up 6 points to 32 percent, and the combined Labour-Green vote on 45 percent. Admittedly, the Roy Morgan survey only caught the first day of Labour’s China Play, but, by the same token, it escaped the effects of ‘Paddy’s Play’ entirely.

Trotter talked up the Roy Morgan result, then disproves his initial point. He also as good as rubbished the latest published public poll:

That job was left to TV3’s Patrick Gower, who has been waging a virtual one-man-war against what he insists are Labour’s “cooked-up” statistics. How disappointed poor Paddy must have been when his week-long assault upon Labour for “playing the race card” was rewarded with a marginal increase in Labour’s support (from 30.4 to 31.1 percent) in the TV3/Reid Research Poll.

Trotter concluded his post with a Labour Party promo.

A UMR poll is mentioned but as it is unpublished it’s impossible to judge, either on a one on one comparison with other polls and on it’s trends.

David Farrar posted on the 3 News Poll – Latest poll.

I’ve blogged at Curia the results of the 3 News Reid Research poll broadcast last night.

Like the One News Colmar Brunton poll the previous week, it shows no bounce for from its targeting of people with Chinese surnames.

What it does show is that has fallen below Winston Peters as Preferred Prime Minister.

This is a feat never achieved by Phil Goff, David Shearer or David Cunliffe.

The last time an Opposition Leader failed to poll in the top two as Preferred Prime Minister was in October 2003 – 12 years ago. Later that month he was rolled in a coup.

So the results of Labour’s concede Northland to Winston strategy has been to have their leader fall into third place behind Winston as Preferred PM.

And the results of their decision to highlight home buyers with Chinese surnames has been to achieve nothing in the , but alienate many Chinese New Zealanders.

Curia is Farrar’s own polling company that amongst other things runs National’s internal polls, but he never reveals the results of those. So he only comments on the published poll results.

The most comprehensive poll coverage is from the non-partisan Colin James at Radio NZ with POLL of POLLS. This looks at rolling averages of polls, far more useful than cherry picking polls, especially unpublished ones, by those with political leanings.

Combined support for Labour and the Greens has overtaken National in the latest four-poll average, covering polls taken during July. And Labour has crept back up to 32.4 %, its highest since March 2014.

The Green Party, sporting new co-leader James Shaw, has climbed a bit to 13.0% but that is below its November 2014 ratings.

National is down to 44.5%. That is its lowest since October 2013. Still, it remains far ahead of all other parties and not far below its election score of 47.0%.

But Labour’s trend seems to be up and National’s down (for now). And Labour and the Greens combined lead National by 0.9% for the first time since February 2014.

So Labour plus Greens are at their highest for over a year – but last year’s election didn’t turn out very well for them.

The poll average chart shows that National has dipped and Labour has climbed:

Average last 4 polls since 2014 election.

*The poll of polls is an arithmetical average of the four most recent major polls since the election from among: TV1 Colmar Brunton, TV3 Reid Research, Fairfax Media-Ipsos, NZ Herald DigiPoll, Roy Morgan New Zealand and UMR Research, which is not published.

The four polls in the most recent average were, in order of interviewing, Morgan, TV1, TV3 and UMR (all in July). The first point on the charts is the actual election result and the polls averaged in the next three points straddled the election. The first point for which all polls were taken after the election is in mid-November.

So that includes the unpublished UMR poll. Again, without knowing any details or trends from them it’s hard to judge.

We will probably get a better idea about mid-august when Roy Morgan put out their next poll, They tend to vary quite a bit but that may give an indication whether their last poll was an indication of a sustainable opinion shift or if it was an outlier, as their May poll was seen as polling National in the mid fifties.

When Cameron Slater says “the stupidity of anyone believing the UMR polls” and Chris trotter says “the usually highly accurate UMR poll” you have to take pundit commentary with a grain of salt.

Remember that it’s more than two years until the next election. And also note that all polls are snapshots in time and ever coincide with election day. This is how they fared last election:

Final result chart

That’s from pollster Andrew at Grumpollie in How did the polls do? The final outcome. He includes details of how he worked that out.

It’s worth noting that the most recent published polls, One News and 3 News, had fairly similar results, unlike pre-election.

Polls are polls, mostly used by press, pundits and parties to make up stories.

National down 6.5%, Labour up 6% (pre Chinese surname saga)

The latest Roy Morgan poll has National down substantially on June’s poll and Labour up by about the same amount – but this poll was taken from 29 June to Sunday 12 July, just one day into the Chinese surname story began so it would have had a negligible effect.

  • National 43% (down 6.5)
  • Labour 32 % (up 6)
  • Greens 13% (unchanged)
  • NZ First 7% (up 0.5)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5)
  • Conservative Party 1.5% (up 0.5)
  • ACT Party 0.5% (down 0.5)
  • United Future 0% (unchanged)
  • Internet-Mana 0% (unchanged)
  • Independent/Others 1.5% (down 0.5)

National has shed support to Labour and possibly to the Maori and Conservative Parties.

This probably reflects on a difficult period for National with negative coverage of the Saudi sheep deal and Nick Smith’s difficulty in managing the growing Auckland housing issue, plus declining dairy prices giving concern about where the the economy is headed.

Other indicators are also negative for Prime Minister John Key. The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating fell steeply in July – now at 118 (down 17.5pts) its lowest since September 2013 while ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating fell to 113.9 in July – the lowest since October 2012. Consumer Confidence has now fallen for three straight months.

This is despite news last week that it looks possible that the Government might make their surplus for the year after all.

The Roy Morgan poll for August may give an indication whether this poll result was a temporary blip or if Labour’s recovery at the expense of National can be sustained or improved.

The Chinese Effect

As already stated this won’t show if there has been any effect on support of parties due to Labour’s Chinese profiling (some have called it racist) and their highlighting of foreign property buyers despite providing no data or evidence of the scale (they made highly speculative claims only).

It makes the timing of the Chinese speculator strategy interesting – will that take away the gains just made, will it make little difference or will Labour get a further boost?

It’s worth noting that this isn’t necessarily an extraordinary shift in support although it’s a major shift over the past two months.

Since the election:

  • October 2014 – National 43.5%, Labour 22.5%
  • November 2014 – National 49.5%, Labour 24%
  • December 2014 – National 46%, Labour 27%
  • January 2015 – National 52%, Labour 26%
  • February 2015 – National 49%, Labour 30%
  • March 2015 – National 46.5%, Labour 31%
  • April 2015 – National 45.5%, Labour 27.5%
  • May 2015 – National 54%, Labour 25.5%
  • June 2015 – National 49.5%, Labour 26%
  • July 2015 – National 43%, Labour 32%

This suggests quite a bit of volatility in support for both parties.


Source: Roy Morgan

Interesting poll reactions

The latest Roy Morgan poll has National down 4.5 to 49.5% and Labour up 0.5 to 26.0% – see Roy Morgan poll – June.

National supporter David Farrar showed on Facebook that the drop for National doesn’t bother him.

National is in real trouble in the polls. They have dropped to 49.5% in the latest Roy Morgan!!

They would have only 62 seats on this poll, while the surging Labour Party would have 32 seats.

He also posted briefly at Kiwiblog – Latest poll – and linked via “I’ve blogged the latest poll at Curia”.

In contrast there has been no post on it at The Standard (to date), only a brief mention and exchange between two Labour actiovists, the first of whom is also an author.

Latest Roy Morgan out. 4.5% drop in support for National. Judith Collins will be well pleased!

So no mention of Labour’s result by Te Reo Putake, and a snarky response when a fellow party member details some fairly pertinent results.

And another tries to dredge up a diss…


Support for Independent/ Others = 2% (up 1%).

That is more than the support for each of the following patsy parties
in Government…

ACT P=1%
Maori P=1%
Uni Fut= 0%.

Pathetic !

…while also ignoring the polling elephant in Labour’s room.


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