RM Poll – National not damaged (yet)

The latest Roy Morgan polls has National up slightly and Labour down slightly.

  • National 48% (up 2%) 
  • Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%)
  • Act NZ 0.5% (unchanged)
  • United Future 0.5% (unchanged)
  • Labour 27.5% (down 2.5%)
  • Greens 11.5% (down 0.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (up 1.5%
  • Internet-Mana Party 2.5% (unchanged)
  • Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged)
  • Independent/ Others 1% (unchanged).

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5747-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-august-20-2014-201408200128

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 809 electors from August 4-17, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.

Variability of polls

Opinion polls can vary markedly, between pollsters and from poll to poll. They are a snapshot indicator of public opinion with known margins of error.

Yesterday’s Roy Morgan poll sparked some hope on the left with a big increase in Labour support and an almost as big drop in National support – from the previous poll. But if you look at a number of polls through the year the spikes and dips don’t seem so dramatic.

National dropped 5 to 46% but are within the range they have been polling with Roy Morgan this year (they 2-3 polls per month, usually fortnightly):

  • 43.5% in January, 43% in March, 42.5% in April/May, 45.5% in May
  • 47% in January, 48.5% in February and March/April, 52.5% in May/June, 51% in June/July
  • This week’s poll 46%

So a move from 51% to 46% doesn’t seem out of the ordinary. Nine out of fourteen times this year National’s poll to poll movement has been more than 3%, four out of fourteen times it has been more than 5%. Fluctuation is normal.

Labour rose 6.5 but their last result of 23.5% was suspected to be an outlier. This year:

  • 30% in February, 28.5% in March, 28% in June, 23.5% in July
  • 33.5% in January, 32% in March, 30.5% in May, 29% in May/June
  • This week’s poll 30%

Labour’s moves have been less dramatic with five of fourteen being 3% or more and the only 5+ moves being down to the low of 23.5% last poll and their bounce back to a more normal range this poll.

Greens poll lower so their movements could be expected to be smaller but they have bounced around too:

  • 11% in January, 11.5% in February, 9% in May
  • 12.5% in January, 14% in March, 14.5% in April/May, 15% in July
  • This week’s poll 12%

Six of fourteen movements have been 3% or more.

NZ First has ranged from 3.5% to 6% this year, the last four results being 4, 5.5, 6, 5 so what they might get in the election is anyone’s guess. Small parties often move proportionally more leading into an election.

Internet-Mana claimed a big move rising from 1.5% to 2.5% – but since their alliance was announced they have polled at 2.5, 2.5, 1.5, 2.5 so the movement this poll could be insignificant.

Movements of support from one poll to another often make the headlines but they don’t mean much. It’s normal for results to bounce around.

A pollster might be able to suggest how much this is expected poll variability and how much might be volatile public opinion.

National down, Labour up in latest poll

National have dropped significantly and Labour have recovered in the latest Roy Morgan poll, but Greens are also down reducing the right to left swing.

Volatility and uncertainty are apparent.

  • National 46% (down 5%)
  • Labour Party 30% (up 6.5%)
  • Greens 12% (down 3)
  • NZ First 5% (down 1%)
  • Internet-Mana Party  2.5% (up 1%)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%)
  • ACT NZ (0.5%, unchanged)
  • United Future 0.5% (unchanged)
  • Conservative Party of NZ 1% (unchanged)
  • Independent/ Others 1% (up 1%)

The string of embarrassments for National seem to have taken their toll. They will be getting a bit anxious after this result.

Internet-Mana are climbing on the back of sustained publicity and promotions.

The Conservatives are nowhere near the levels claimed by Colin Craig and Christine Rankin.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 818 electors from July 14-27, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.

Roy Morgan poll 31 July 2014

New Zealand Voting Intention Summary

Labour 23.5% in latest Roy Morgan

The latest Roy Morgan:

  • National 51% (up 3%)
  • Labour Party 23.5% (down 4.5% )
  • Greens are 15% (up 3%)
  • New Zealand First 6% (up 0.5%)
  • Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%)
  • Act NZ (0.5%, down 0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%)
  • Internet-Mana Party 1.5% (down 1%)
  • Conservative Party of NZ 1% (unchanged)
  • Independent/ Others is 0% (down 0.5%)

More bad news for Labour. Very bad.This suggests that the Fairfax IPSOS poll may not have been an outlier.

Greens get a lift but it’s not much use if Labour sink.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 819 electors from June 30 – July 13, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5684-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-july-16-2014-201407160655

View interactive New Zealand Election charts here

New Zealand Voting Intention Summary

Minor moves in Roy Morgan poll

The latest Roy Morgan poll has minor moves with support levels similar to most other June polls.

  • National (48%, down 1.5%)
  • Labour Party 28% (unchanged)
  • Greens 12% (unchanged)
  • New Zealand First 5.5% (up 1.5%)
  • Internet-Mana Party 2.5% (unchanged)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%)
  • Conservative Party of NZ 1% (down 0.5%)
  • Act NZ (1%, up 0.5%)
  • United Future 0% (unchanged).
  • Independent/ Others 0.5% (down 0.5%).

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 817 electors from June 16-29, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Summary report

New Zealand Voting Intention Summary

PDF Summary

 

Roy Morgan poll more ‘normal’

The latest Roy Morgan poll is more in line with recent poll trends and fluctuations compared to what appears to be an outlier poll from Fairfax/IPSOS yesterday – Fairfax/IPSOS – National 56, Labour 23.

It is still an awful result for Labour with them at 28% with nothing of this week’s news covered by the polling period but it’s not as dire as Fairfax/IPSOS at 23%.

  • National 49.5% (-3)
  • Labour 28% (-1)
  • Greens 12% (+3)
  • NZ First 4% (-0.5)
  • MANA 1.5% (+1.0)
  • Internet 1.0% (+0.5)
  • Maori Party 1.0% (-0.5)
  • Conservative Party 1.5% (+0.5)
  • Ac t 0.5% (-0.5)
  • UnitedFuture 0% (no change)

National still look strong but are lacking potential partners.

Roy Morgan: Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 845 electors from June 2-15, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Green election prospects

In a Public Address discussion on polls and party positions – Hard News: Meanwhile back at the polls – the election chances of the Greens came up.

(Roy) Morgan has National up seven points to 52.5% support, and Labour and the Greens both down to a combined 38%. The Greens shed 4.5 points to slump to 9% support, their lowest level since 2011.

That’s a significant slip for the Greens at a time when they haven’t seemed to have done anything controversial.

But a friend put another interpretation to me on Friday: that the public has had a look at Internet-Mana and decided a potential centre-left coalition is really not to its taste.

That’s quite likely although the appointment of Laila Harre as Internet Party leader and the arrangement with MANA happened more than half way through the polling period.

It could also be accumulated wariness of the chances of too much Green influence in the next Government.

Bart Jansen commented:

As a point of anecdata, I had a conversation with an in-law who used to vote Labour but wouldn’t this time because he thought The Greens would then get to control the country.

That could be quite common, I’ve heard similar sentiments expressed.

It isn’t the first time I have heard that. It’s an interesting and frustrating situation for both The Greens and Labour. What’s weird is people don’t seem to apply the same fear and distrust to the influence of The Maori Party and ACT over National.

Greens have fourteen MPs and are pushing for more. That would be a significantly more influential number in a coalition than ACT’s current one/zero and the Maori Party’s three.

I think there is something strange going on out there particularly in the older (voting) public. It seems that there is very little acceptance that The Greens have shed their more extreme views and are now a much more serious party and hence more reasonable.

They are promoting themselves as more serious and more reasonable, but they are still widely seen as much bigger spenders if they get into Government, and there is a sizeable resistance to moving more towards a handout mentality that the Greens are linked to.

I don’t think Labour distancing themselves from The Greens will solve the problem, I suspect that what needs to happen is for both the parties to establish what the coalition will look like and just how much influence each party will have on overall policy. But I doubt anyone is keen to do that.

Greens seem to have been keen on doing that but Labour opted out.

Greens have fluctuated between 9% and 15% in polls, often through give and take with Labour’s results. Greens have benefited from Labour’s weaknesses and look a good bet to at least maintain last election’s improved result (but they have tended to poll better than they achieve in elections).

The next few polls should give us an idea of the impact of Internet-MANA who could take some Green support, but they also make the Greens look comparatively less scary – to many floating voters Labour+Greens doesn’t look as risky as Labour+Greens+MANA+Internet.

I think Greens have always had fairly widespread partial support, with many people being happy with a healthy Green voice in Parliament – but those some partial supporters are wary of too much Green say, especially on economic matters. As far as Greens are seen, environmentalist good, economist bad. So Greens through Norman pushing for wider credentials and especially promoting financial ambitions may attract some but it scares a lot more.

What Greens might benefit most from is if the Labour vote collapses as it did for National in 2002. But that won’t help the chances of a left leaning coalition.

Poll – National surge, left significantly down

A significant lift for National in the latest Roy Mrogan poll. Labour is still struggling to impress but more surprising is Greens dropping to  their lowest support since September 2011 )before the last election).

  • National 52.5% (+7)
  • Labour 29% (-1.5)
  • Greens 9% (-4.5)
  • NZFirst 4.5% (-1.5)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (+0.5)
  • Conservatives 1% (no change)
  • Act 1% (+0.5)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5)
  • Internet 0.5% (no change)
  • United Future 0% (no change)

Mana and the Internet Party are still shown as separate parties and haven’t made any inroads.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 849 electors from May 19 – June 1, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

RM 6 June 2014

Links:

This confirms the results as posted this morning –  Poll puzzle and Trotter mania

Poll puzzle and Trotter mania

A Roy Morgan poll result has been posted at Trade Me:

National 52.5% (+7)
Labour 29% (-1.5%)
Greens 9% (-4.5)
NZFirst 4.5% (-1.5%)
Maori Party 1.5% (+0.5%)
Conservatives 1% (no change)
Act 1% (+0.5%)
Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
Internet 0.5% (no change)

Requests to provide a link have been ignored and I can’t find anything from Roy Morgan to back this up.

In the meantime Chris trotter has posted a poll warning.

Keep Calm And Carry On: Why the Left should ignore the next round of poll results

BRACE YOURSELVES, COMRADES, for some horrendous poll results. The next round of surveys from Colmar Brunton, Reid Research, DigiPoll, Ipsos and Roy Morgan will almost certainly register a major slump in the Centre Left’s support and a concomitant rise in National’s numbers – quite possibly to 55 percent-plus. Labour and the Greens will both take nasty hits and the Internet-Mana Party (IMP) will be very lucky to make it above 1 percent. Apart from John Key, the only other person likely to be smiling is Winston Peters. – S

Trotter’s predictions are in line with this poll result except for NZ First. Curious.

Trotter then goes on at length – he seems to have let excitement over a possible left wing lurch via Kim Dotcom’s millions overcome any semblance of careful consideration.He at times sounds maniacal.

He concludes:

They should think of the next round of polls as the Right’s all-or-nothing artillery barrage – something to panic them into a headlong retreat. But, as the shells loaded with appalling results burst over the heads, they should simply tighten their helmet-straps and hold tight.

Behind them the IMP is marshalling its troops, stockpiling ammunition and gasoline, and unloading its tanks from their transporters. The Left has only to keep calm, carry on, and remember that blitzkrieg is a German word.

It’s absurd to claim polls are “the Right’s all-or-nothing artillery barrage”, they are conducted by independent polling companies.

Trotter is frantically talking up a political war. Very ironically he says “The Left has only to keep calm, carry on”.

Calm went out his window when big capitalist money was thrown at his socialist ambitions.

Roy Morgan poll – National bounce back

The latest Roy Morgan poll has a bit of a bounce back for National (45.45%) but they remain vulnerable, and Labour (30.5%) are still struggling in the low thirties.

  • National 45.5% (up 3%)
  • Labour 30.5% (down 0.5%)
  • Green Party 13.5% (down 0.5)
  • NZ First 6.0% (no change)
  • Maori Party 1.0% (no change)
  • Mana Party 1.0% (no change)
  • Conservative Party 1.0% (up 0.5)
  • ACT NZ 0.5% (no change)
  • Internet Party 0.5% (down 1)
  • UnitedFuture 0% (down 0.5)

Apart from National’s recovery there is negligible change, except for the Internet Party will be disappointed to drop back below 1%.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 873 electors from May 5-18, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Election 2014 Interactive Charts

These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.

In future weeks we will be adding key demographic variables to the charts including Age, Gender and Regional breakdowns to show which way key demographics are voting and which demographics each party needs to target to maximise their vote at this year’s New Zealand Election – called for September 20, 2014.

Roy Morgan May 22 2014

 

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