Three polls

On Sunday One News and 3 News released polls, and today Fairfax have reported on their latest poll. All polling was done over a similar period, just after the budget.

One News
Colmar Brunton
3 News
Reid Research
Fairfax
Ipsos
17-23 May 17-23 May “days after
May 16”
National                      49                   47.1 49.1
Labour                     33                    33.1 31.9
Greens                   9             12.0 11.2
NZ First                     4                 2.2 3.2
Conservative                      2                     1.5 1.6
Maori                    1                 2.2 ?
Mana                         1                     0.5 ?
Act                      –                  0.2 ?
United Future                      1                     0.4 ?
  • One News/Colmar look to be rounded to the nearest whole number
  • Fairfax/Ipsos is from media reports that don’t give all the details
    – “UnitedFuture, ACT, Mana and the Maori Party 2.1% between them”

As usual this can’t be projected into a possible election result, we are mid term with a lot to happen before an election in November next year. And there are often late movements in support leading up to an election.

National will be happy with consistently high support hovering around them being able to rule alone (but voters have never yet obliged on that under MMP). It’s the economy and less risky stewardship of Finance, and that’s likely to be a significant factor in the election.

Labour should be worried that after major policy releases their support is drifting back. Fairfax lay much of the blame on David Shearer (see below) but associating closely with Greens must also be impacting.

Greens will be disappointed they are not gaining support.

Labour+Greens combined are struggling to compete with National:

  • Labour+Green – 42, 45.1, 43.1
  • National – 49, 47.1, 49.1

A Roy Morgan poll is also due this week but will cover a slightly later time period.

Vernon Small (Fairfax): National leaving Labour in its wake

Halfway through its second term, Prime Minister John Key’s National is riding high on 49.1 per cent support, up 4.5 percentage points since February, and would be able to govern alone.

Over the same period Labour had shed 4.4 per cent to 31.9 per cent, with respondents pointing to Mr Shearer as weak and negative, Ipsos pollster Duncan Stuart said.

It marks a sharp reversal from our February poll when the Left and Right were neck and neck.

The survey, taken in the days after the May 16 Budget, suggests an improving economic mood has lifted National’s poll ratings.

Tracey Watkins (Fairfax): Shearer’s invisible cloak thinning

If the results of today’s Fairfax Media-Ipsos poll are a precursor to the next election, the news is all bad for Labour – and not just because the poll has it shedding support, though that is bad enough.

But because it reverses a trend that had Labour slowly clawing into contention.

What changed? To lean on a cliche, the economy, stupid.

And with optimism on the rebound, National’s message at the election in 2014 looks like an increasingly potent one – we’ve taken our medicine, done the hard yards, and we’re starting to reap the gains. Why put that all at risk?

But something else may also be changing. Mr Shearer may be morphing from Mr Invisible to something worse in voters’ eyes. Mr Negative.

The overall poll results and trends conflict with Patrick Gower’s take at 3 News – Poll: Labour, Greens close gap on Nationalthe 3 News results showed National and Labour+Greens closer than the others but the movements from their previous poll were within margins of error.

Leave a comment

3 Comments

  1. I believe these figures reflects a trend towards a conservative mould. Many don’t want idealistic solutions but more conservative approaches to current problems; social, economic and political – pragmatism is the key word here – budget, feeding children, cost cutting, simple measures that are achievable. No fancy footwork needed.

    Reply
  2. Darryl

     /  29th May 2013

    Most people hate Negativity, and that is all that the country is getting from Labour and The Greens. The country is starting to show growth, why would any one want to change that to misfits in society.

    Reply
  3. Touche Darryl

    Reply

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