3 News poll reactions

The latest 3 News/Reid Research poll has National strengthening and Labour slipping a bit more.

  • National 49.5% (up 2.4)
  • Labour 30.1% (down 2.1)
  • Greens 12% (no change)
  • NZ First 3.9% (up 1.7)

This is very similar to a Roy Morgan poll covering a similar period – National 47%, Labour 31%, Greens 11.5%, NZ First 4.5%.

  • Mr Key 52% say he’s doing well (down 3%) and say he’s doing a poor job (up 1.9%)
  • David Shearer “performing well” has dropped by 10 to 26.1% and “doing a poor job” has risen 7 to 43.3%.

Shearer’s reaction:

“It’s a wake up call for us. People want us to be focussed on them and not on Labour Party internal matters.”

It’s been a long slumber. Some have seen it as a nightmare. Time will tell if if Labour caucus rub the sleep out of their eyes and do anything different. But different was not Shearer’s initial response, he immediately went into his usual recital routine.

“We need to talk about the issues that people want us to talk about,” says Mr Shearer. “It’s about the affordability of electricity. It’s about the affordability of homes.”

That’s still talking in his sleep.

Russel Norman sounded rueful.

“We’re doing okay, but I’d like us to do better, and whether David Shearer is the right person for Labour, that’s Labour’s question, not ours.”

The Standard had preceded the poll with a detailed diss of Shearer.

On the Labour leadership
Written By:

Over the last few weeks Labour has been in a state of agitation as the party, the affiliates and even the caucus have come to the realisation that the Shearer project has failed.

Eight months on from conference, Labour is still failing to connect with the public and is mired in the low 30s. Despite regular Government stuff ups and scandals, Labour seems unable to make headway. The public aren’t stupid, they can see there is something wrong in New Zealand but they don’t see a credible alternative in Labour. This frame now appears to be stuck.

It’s in this context that Labour has realised Shearer is finished. The leaks are merely a symptom of this. The man ban fiasco is but a catalyst. Each poll that shows Labour up half a point or down two points is irrelevant in the broader context.

This isn’t a rut that one good poll or a new policy launch will save us from.

‘Eddie’ has been critical for some time and has been involved in destabilising Shearer’s leadership, and was prominent in the conference ‘coup’ attempt, so that’s par for the course. This post may have been in expectation of a poor poll result.

The Standard was quick off the mark following the 6 news headline with 3News poll (no author attributed), showing the main poll results starkly, with a brief statement:

Three News’ latest poll tonight doesn’t look good for Labour.

It doesn’t. ‘Jimmie’ summed up Labour’s post-Clark problems.

Ignoring the polls won’t make them go away – they are a sign that the voting public is not happy with who Labour are right now and haven’t been since 2008.

Instead of bleating on for years about the inaccuracies of polls and how the evil Nats will be gone once the public awaken to cronyism Labour should have spent 2009-10 reviewing why they lost the lost 2008 election.

Having worked this out via review they should then have selected a whole new crop of candidates for the 2011 election with the aim of building towards a 2014 victory.

By 2014 you would have had a crop of keen, fresh upstarts chaffing at the bit to get into the treasury benches with a party and policy to match (and a leader??)

Key would have found it a lot harder to aim for a 3rd term under this scenario.

But no what did Labour do? Installed the old has beens in the caucus leadership, kept the same tired policies, and pretended that the polls were inaccurate.

Result? Record loss at the 2011 election, and very few new MP’s coming in. Throw in a new insipid leader, a broke party, and factional splits more ways than a dominos pizza.

Now everyone realizes that its a mess but who is gona fix it?

‘Blue leopard’ responds:

I agree with your comments (which, by the way, require none of these reid/roymorgan polls to act upon ~ to have taken the election results seriously would have sufficed)

What you write is a pretty straight-forward common-sense dare I say obvious way to address the election result; which brings me to the question that naturally arises:

Where are Labour’s strategists? Who are they? Do they exist at all?, and if so, Where are their heads at???

In the clouds, in the sand, wherever, anywhere but in the real world.

Not everyone is down on Shearer – ‘Core Labour Voter’:

I am disappointed with the negativity shown here over Shearer. OK, I agree Labour is not doing well. But it is holding steady at 31% and the support partner Greens are steady at 12%. NZ First is inching up and I am sure it will cross 5% on election night.

All Labour needs to do is claw up another 4% on election night. Then it will be a Labour-Green-NZ First-Hone Centre-Left government. I will start to worry only if Labour drops below 30%. Let us not destabilise the leadership now. Let us stay united folks.

I suspect a Labour-Green-NZ First-Hone Centre-Left government is not on many people’s wish lists. And Core Labour Voter got no support and some criticism, with ‘Struth’ summing up:

Labour’s been steady on around 31 for four years. It’s not getting any better. In the latest poll Shearer’s personal competence rating dropped from 36 to 26. The public know he’s just not up to it.

If your hope of a Labour-led government relies on Shearer picking up four points against Key in the campaign, and Winston getting to five and choosing to play third fiddle to Labour and the Greens (with Hone at his side),then you’re dreaming. He’ll go play kingmaker with his old party the Nats in a second.

Labour can’t win with Shearer. He needs to go, as does every MP who devised and propped up this dreadful experiment. He owes it to Labour to do the honourable thing.

Will Shearer “do the honourable thing”? There has been no sign so far, and we are yet to see what reaction there will be to “a wake up call for us”. But avoiding personal responsibility like this signals an absence of self awareness. Still.

The Labour caucus is having a ‘retreat’ in Napier today. The ball is in their court.

Leave a comment

2 Comments

  1. Martin Gibson

     /  22nd July 2013

    The problem is that those people who have the time and conviction to cling to power within the Labour Party are repulsive, and the practical working folks who would need to be there for me to vote labour don’t have the time and energy to deal with the poisonous hate of the Union-Feminist-Homosexual factions and their toxic identity politics which most New Zealanders have a visceral mistrust of.
    It is worth re-reading John Tamihere’s summary of this, because it is as true now as it was in 2005 when he committed political harakiri by telling Ian Wishart how it was to be in Helen Clarke’s Labour Party, which is to say, today’s Labour Party.

    Tamihere:
    “They don’t have families. They’ve got nothing but the ability to plot. I’ve gotta take my kid to soccer on Saturday, they don’t. So they just go and have a parlez vous francais somewhere and a latte, whereas we don’t get to plot, we’re just trying to get our kids to synchronise their left and right feet. They don’t even think about that.
    “I’ve got a fifteen year old whose testosterone’s jumping and he’s scrapping around at school. Now they don’t have that, and because they don’t have that they’re just totally focused. You’ve also got a fully paid organization called the union movement, who can co-opt fully paid coordinators. These people just never sleep.

    INVESTIGATE:

    How dangerous is it to be in the Labour Party?

    Tamihere:

    If you’re a free and independent spirit, very dangerous. Like, if there was a popularity poll for me, I can assure you that there’s more ministerial klingons voting on the old PC against you, and yet I’m on the same team! They sit there, typing away, muttering, ‘come on SFO, let’s nail this bastard!’
    In this outfit it’s all ‘rosy’ on the outside, not the inside. When I used to make a contribution in cabinet, on the cabinet papers, I’d go, ‘Hang on’, and she’d go, ‘you want to be difficult again, do you?’

    http://www.investigatemagazine.com/tamihere.htm

    Reply
  1. Labour Retreat – while Shearer’s away… | Your NZ

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