National good, Labour bad on ipredict

(Keeping in mind that it’s easily manipulated) ipredict trends for which party will lead the next Government show a significant increase in support for National and a corresponding decrease for Labour.

There will be a National Prime Minister after the next election: 62% (up 6-8% over the last four weeks).


ipredict National PM
There will be a Labour Prime Minister after the next election: 38% (down 6-8% over the last four weeks).

ipredict Labour PMRelated prediction – David Cunliffe to be Prime Minister before 2015: 38.5%
(also trending down 4% over four weeks)

That suggests either a sustained attempt to force a perception of improved National’s chances in the election or to trash Labour’s chances, or it reflects a real swing in perceived major party election support.

The latter would be a real concern for David Cunliffe and Labour. When this trend was mentioned at The Standard Labour activist mickysavage tried to talk up the manipulation possibility:

Only because a pillock with $1k spare sold a thousand Labour PM shares at .38 and bought a thousand National MP shares at .62. If Ipredict was controlled by the stock exchange someone would have their credentials taken off them and be done for manipulation …

But he also made a confusing comment:

I actually quite like IPredict. It has an inherent right wing bias and it is easy to make money if you have an understanding of reality.

Which reality? That you can make money off mugs on ipredict? Or the reality of a loss of confidence in Labour’s election chances? It could be a bit of both.

Current party vote share predictions:

  • National 42.1%
  • Labour 33.6%
  • Green Party 9.8%
  • NZ First 5.3%
  • Conservative Party 4.3%
  • Act Party 2.4%
  • Maori Party 1.3% (2 seats)
  • Internet Party 0.85%
  • UnitedFuture Party 0.5%
  • Mana Party 0.5%
  • Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.3%
  • Civilian Party 0.1%
  • Democratic Party for Social Credit 0.1%

Neither the Internet Party nor the Civilian Party have been launched yet.

Other predictions significant to the outcome of the election:

  • Maori Party to win one electorate seat 56.6%, two electorate seats 18.2%
  • Mana Party to win one electorate seat 78.6%, two electorate seats 11%
  • NZ First top win no electorate seats 93.5%
  • Conservative Party to win no electorate seats 51.7%, one electorate seat 45%
  • United Future to win one electorate seat 78.6%
  • Act Party to win one electorate seat 75%
  • David Cunliffe to be Prime Minister before 2015


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