Turei on ‘rogue poll’

Green co-leader Metiria Turei has commented on the latest poll result to Radio NZ – Greens play down latest poll.

The Green Party is playing down the significance of the latest political poll, saying it’s too soon to know whether it’s real change or just an anomaly.

The One News Colmar Brunton Poll has the Greens on eight percent support, down from 13 percent in the same poll in October.

The Greens haven’t scored that low since 2011.

Co-leader Metiria Turei says she’s not concerned.

“The polls are going to jump around like mad in the beginning of this year. We’ve been polling on average about 12 percent since last election.

“So this is quite an unusual rogue poll, whether it is pattern we are yet to see.”

Unlike other claims of ‘rogue poll’ this is a fair call from Turei. I’m sure Turei and the Greens have some concerns but this could be a rogue poll for Greens.

Other recent polls had  Greens at 12 (Roy Morgan) and 10 (Fairfax). The margin of error at this level is about +/- 2 so 8% could be outside the margins of  recent polls, but there’s always a one in 20 chance of this happening in polls.

So we have to wait for more polls to see if this is an unusual variation, a temporary drop  or a downward movement to be concerned about.

Greens should hope it’s a rogue and results will return to recent ranges. The next Roy Morgan poll due out next week will give us a better idea.

 

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2 Comments

  1. In simple terms, there’s a 1 in 20 chance of a rogue poll, that could be high or low. There’s only a 1 in 40 chance of a rogue poll that has you below the 95% range.

    Reply

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