Campaign “at a delicate stage” for Labour

How can I put this delicately?

Greg Presland has posted  The election campaign is at a delicate stage: at The Standard:

We are entering an interesting phase of the election campaign and a number of recent events may have a critical effect on the eventual outcome.

Firstly nothing is more important in politics than momentum.  The latest Colmar Brunton poll result 1 suggests that Labour may be developing some of that most cherished of political assets, momentum in the polls.

Thankfully the slide in Labour’s support has reversed and there has been a healthy increase from poll results with Labour polling nearly 5% above the recent Roy Morgan and a previous Ipsos poll results.

‘Swordfish’ has been analysing polls and gives some detail:

Labour’s Poll Support – June/July in chronological order

JUNE
28, 31, 23, 27, 29, 28

JULY
24, 25, 27, 27, 28

So, Labour’s does seem to have largely bounced back from that little trough.

So Labour are back to where they were at the start and end of June. As far as polling goes the last three results have been virtually the same – which coincidentally is virtually the same as their record low result in the 2011 election.

The 23 and 24 results were weeks apart so may be blips in general trends. If so that means Labour is pretty much flatlining, taking into account margin of error, which is about +/- 2.75 for 27% with a sample size of 1000.

Another comment points out the slight drop in support from the previous One News/Colmar poll…

National has climbed to 52% in the latest ONE News/Colmar Brunton poll while Labour is down one point to 28%.

Labour on 28% is just above its 2011 election result and the Greens have also slipped, dropping two points to 10%.

…which puts National on 52% compared to Labour+Green on 38%. That does look a wee bit delicate.

Tom Gould points out:

Breathing a sign of relief that support only dropped one per cent to 28 whereas the Tories only rose two per cent to 52, and the gap between Labour and Green versus the Tory only widened to 14 points, hardly shows the campaign at “a delicate stage”. T

What looks “delicate” is the grasp on reality.

Activists like Presland have to try and sound positive – especially with a Labour slogan of Vote Positive – but trying to talk up a mangy dog of a position risks looking out of touch as Tom eluded to.

Presland does try to explain his post…

1 This post has been written in a style which right wing commentators usually use.

…but it doesn’t sound anything like the style any tight wing commentators I know of use, let alone a supposed collective “right wing commentators”.

It’s difficult for Labour to promote themselves in what looks like a dire  situation. Talking sunshine in a cyclone can look more than a bit out of touch.

Labour should at least be trying to convince voters they know how to use an umbrella.

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1 Comment

  1. IGM

     /  28th July 2014

    When a party is dictated to by minority elements of society found disgusting by the majority, they have a long way to go. Cunliffe has tried appeasing all the wrong types and this has backfired completely so far. NZ wants a steady as it goes, no frills type of governance, and this is what JK and his capable Cabinet display. When Caucus is selected by gender and sexual equality (including weirdos), it is going to promote even more envious, devious, losers. Wake up Cunliffe, you are greasing to the wrong audience.

    Reply

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