Predictable result

In the main the election result and sub-results were quite predictable.

Polls were a reasonable indicator but only look backwards so show trends that have happened. They can’t predict to late campaign shifts that are common.

This election was peculiar in that many decisions were put on hold until Kim Dotcom’s big reveal. When it came to nothing it strengthened resolve of swing voters to ensure National retained it’s hold on Government.

Labour dropping below poll results was not surprising. They were obviously not going to do well and non-committed voters either change their minds or simply don’t bother voting.

Claims like “but Cunliffe ran a good campaign” have been proven wrong. As David Shearer said, the end result was tragic for Labour. Cunliffe may have appeared to be campaigning strongly but he puts on a variety of acts. While they might be slick acts voters see through this lack of genuineness. Cunliffe also has a problem that is probably unresolvable – too many people simply don’t like his persona (or personas).

Greens will be disappointed to have struggled to maintain their level of support while Labour were shedding votes. Greens weren’t able to pick them up. This suggests that 10-12% is the upper limit for them. This also shouldn’t be surprising outside the Green bubble. People like to have a party promoting environmental issues but most don’t like the extreme Green stances like no drilling, no fracking, no motorways.

And Greens misread public sentiment if they think that handing out more money to poor people with no responsibilities applied will be popular. Middle New Zealand see this as imposing costs and taxes on them. Socialism is fringe ideology these days.

Winston Peters is adept at picking up protest and shedded votes. NZ First gained vote, gained MPs but otherwise gained nothing. Most of the 91% who didn’t vote NZ First will be happy with this outcome.

The 5% threshold always looked a very high hurdle for Conservatives and so it proved. This was a failure of MMP. The threshold should be no higher than 3%. I don’t personally support the Conservatives but their missing out is a travesty of democracy.

Hone Harawira losing his electorate was a bit of a shock but not really surprising given the severely compromised position of Harawira and Mana hitching their ambitions to Kim Dotcom. Dotcom’s expensive disaster was Harawira’s failing.

Internet-Mana was always a high risk alliance. They might have succeeded as a combined party but Dotcom realised too late that his brand was toxic and he couldn’t resist being prominent. His final week failure to deliver on his promises to hit John Key compounded the problem.

Laila Harre severely compromised her credibility and was still blind to this yesterday, blaming everything but reality. Her political future is very limited.

The Maori Party lost two of their three electorates as widely predicted. For the first time they had sufficient party vote to pick up a list seat to go with Te Ururoa Flavell’s retained seat. Flavell was a minor star of the campaign but will have a difficult job keeping the Maori Party afloat.

David Seymour retained Epsom as expected but also as expected ACT failed as a party. Jamie Whyte failed to step up as leader in a challenging attempt to rebuild a battered brand.

Peter Dunne held is Ohariu seat. That didn’t seem to surprise anyone but unrealistic Labourites from the electorate. As a party United Future was nowhere to be seen, and accordingly votes were nowhere to be seen, dropping to a third of the low return they got in 2011.

Just two more seats for National but this strengthens them substantially, giving them a majority vote on their own as long as they don’t lose any seats this term. They also have ACT, Dunne and Maori Party support options on standby.

Just two less seats for Labour and this weakens them substantially. The result is tragic for them and the outlook is no better. They have done very little to move on the old guard and bring in new talent. They seem out of touch with their constituency of last century. They have yet another failed leader with no obvious replacement. This was also predictable.

Labour have failed for six years to rebuild from the Clark/Cullen era. Unless someone out of the ordinary steps up their future looks bleak.

National campaigned on ‘steady as she goes’ and the voters delivered the platform for National to be a little more politically steady than expected providing outstanding issues don’t impact too much.

Judith Collins has already been sidelined and is expendable should inquiries further damage her.

Now the election is over ‘dirty politics’ should be addressed by Key. And by Labour. And to a lesser extent by Greens. Peters won’t change from his habit of attack without evidence but he will be largely impotent unless the media keep pandering to his baseless allegations.

Some embarrassments may emerge for Key and National out of surveillance and GCSB issues but they look to have been overplayed, and most people accept the need for some surveillance protection.

The simple fact is that most people don’t feel threatened by surveillance and they are concerned about about terrorism.

And it’s ironic that the supposedly net-savvy who campaign strongly against surveillance must be aware that the Google and Twitter and Facebook social media tools they willingly use are tracking what they do far more than any government.

But we can predict they will continue to fight for a free internet that gives them far more public exposure than they ever had. They claim that privacy is paramount in a very public online world.

Otherwise we can predict have much the same Government as we’ve had over the past six years. Most people will be comfortable with that.

It’s harder to predict if Harawira will make a comeback or if Mana will survive their battering and their harsh reality check.

If Dotcom pulls the plug on Internet Party funding it’s demise can be predicted. If that happens it can also be predicted that Laila Harre will find it very difficult to find another party that would risk being tainted by her lack of loyalty and sense.

It is not hard to predict that Labour’s struggle to be relevant and their lack of connection to anyone but some special interest groups will continue.

John Key has shown he is aware of the dangers to National of complacency and arrogance – it can be predicted that some of his MPs will struggle to heed his warnings. But most likely things will continue much as they have.

Leave a comment

18 Comments

  1. supergoldcardholder

     /  22nd September 2014

    Congratulations to John Key and National. Another 3 years of stable, secure government, for which every business owner in the country will be breathing a sigh of relief.

    Until such time as those in Labor stop ‘apologizing for being men’, and realize there is no pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, they will remain a complete irrelevance to the vast majority of ‘right thinking’ New Zealanders.

    Reply
  2. “The simple fact is that most people don’t feel threatened by surveillance and they are concerned about about terrorism.”

    Yeah, good timing with the police “anti-terror” raid and covert data-copying in Victoria. For those with short memories, this is the same state where Martin Bryant was framed for the Port Arthur shootings in the leadup to the great Aussie gun confiscation.

    Reply
  3. Labour have a long way to go, they are run by weirdos, leeches, lesbians, homosexuals, and deviants, hence they are supported by such. They have a couple of real men at last, Nash and Davis, but that is where it ends. Get rid of losers such as Little, King, Mallard, Dyson, Cosgrove, et al; maybe then, it may get a fresh start.

    Reply
  4. Brown

     /  22nd September 2014

    “Labour have a long way to go, they are run by weirdos, leeches, lesbians, homosexuals, and deviants, hence they are supported by such.”

    My brother in law was ranting about the labour loss on his face book page and my wife and I debated what she should say in reply. I suggested something along the lines above but I think she toned it down and simply called him a wanker.

    Reply
  5. Why are taxpayers funding protection of the weasel and liar Hager? What he gets is what he deserves, and sure does not deserve my hard earned taxes.

    Reply
  6. Still waiting to see the outcome of specials.. Greens usually pick up 1-2 & Nats may lose 1-2
    Key may say the next 3 years will be ‘stable Govt. & more of the same’ BUT I dont believe him for a minute.. I expect Aotearoa to move to the hard right, with more deterioration of workers rights & beneficiary bashing. Oh yes & deep sea drilling, fracking, water pollution out of control etc. etc.
    They say Ignorance is bliss. There are still questions about Keys honesty & credibility. Taking the ostrich option does not make it magically all, go away !

    Reply
  7. Zedd: Accept the fact you, and your ilk are losers! Surely you are accustomed to this!

    Reply
  8. Kittycatkin

     /  22nd September 2014

    The saying is NOT ‘ignorance is bliss’. It’s ‘Where ignorance is bliss/’Tis folly to be wise.’

    Martin Bryant was framed, with all those witnesses and film of him doing it ? If that’s so, it’s the most successful framing ever done. I can see no possible reason for it. NOBODY would want the real mass murderer to walk free. The idea that he was framed is absurd, with so much evidence that he did it. Or maybe he had a double or an evil twin.

    I don’t like surveillance, but I also don’t like terrorism, having grown up in a family to whom this was an everyday part of life in their native land. Nobody who’s been bombed or even threatened with terrorism (my aunt automatically checked the car for odd wires, and she was not a cowardly or paranoid person, it was like me checking the door to make sure that I’ve locked it-the sort of thing that one is hardly aware of having done) would not object to having some sort of watch on terrorism.

    Poor Laila Harre ! Unsere Freund aka Mein Fuhrer dropped everyone in it, and why an extreme leftist is so enamoured of a criminal capitalist is beyond me. Her appearance in what looked like a widow’s outfit was utterly bizarre, as is her refusal to stop blaming everyone and everything for the debacle. It was National votes ! Well, yes; we live in a democracy, Laila. We can vote as we choose. I wouldn’t have been at all happy had Labour won, but I’d have reluctantly accepted that that was what most people wanted.

    Reply
  9. “Martin Bryant was framed, with all those witnesses and film of him doing it?”

    Witnesses:
    Rebecca McKenna: “a young fellow, about 18 or 19”
    Carol Pearce: “between 18–20 years of age”
    Graham Collyer: “somewhere about 20 … he looked like he might have had a lot of acne. A pitted face.
    Jim Laycock: “low twenties”, “did not recognise the male as Martin Bryant”
    Joyce Maloney: “I thought he was about 18–22 years old”
    Carmel Edwards: “22–23 years old”
    Justin Noble: “20–25 years of age”.

    At the time Bryant was a few days away from his 29th birthday and could not reasonably have been mistaken for anyone under about twenty-seven.

    By film, do you mean the Balasko video? In his statement of April 29 Balasko made no mention of any video being shot.

    Link

    Reply
  10. News-flash: ‘Team-key’ only actually got about 30% of all eligible voters.. nearly as many, did not vote (again). The biggest losers will be the wage & salary earners & beneficiaries who will, no doubt suffer most under this right-wing TORY Govt. who only really care about looking after the farmers, the wealthy & foreign capital speculators !
    Ignorance truly is bliss & ostriches bury their heads in the sand.

    Reply
  11. Goldie

     /  22nd September 2014

    ” The result is tragic for them and the outlook is no better. They have done very little to move on the old guard and bring in new talent. They seem out of touch with their constituency of last century. They have yet another failed leader with no obvious replacement. This was also predictable.”

    While 2002 was an even worse defeat for National in terms of the % of the vote, in many ways, Labour is in a much worse place than National was in 2002.

    First, National in 2002 had still managed to bring in fresh blood despite the rout (this was when John Key entered parliament). Michelle Boag gets a lot of brickbats, but she did manage to rejuvenate the party, despite the short-term ructions this caused National. The contrast with the hapless Moira Coatsworth is notable. Labour have not rejuvenated – they are pretty much the same failed team that crashed in 2008, lost badly in 2011 and got routed in 2014. Do Labour MPs rely believe that “the fourth time is the charm”? That Labour did not seek to promote young talent like Deborah Russell is bewildering, while leaving an embittered old tusker Trevor Mallard in a safe(ish) electorate says how useless the Labour leadership is.

    Second, after 2002 National did a complete policy review. National sought to attract talent, and outside independent advice. And after 2005 National decided to swallow rats (WFF, interest-free student loans) as the price for power. Labour’s problem is that they have no policy unit to speak of. Labour went into this election with badly conceived or (to be polite) incomplete policies. There is no sign of that getting better.

    Third, Labour is struggling for a raison d’être. Clearly there is a vague willingness to intervene in the economy, but why or how seems to have not been thought through, and Labour’s current “policies” are completely incoherent. I think it is because Labour don’t have a coherent ideology. Helen Clark had her “third way” (which was basically copied from Blair and Clinton) – hence why Labour under Helen Clark was generally ideologically consistent and therefore were able to project a strong vision and unity. But the current Labour Party is floundering for ideological coherence and an overarching vision. (Overseas, left-wing parties are faced with the same problem, so Labour is not unique).

    Still – 2017 is a long time away. Given the right leader, Labour can solve these problems.

    Reply
  12. zed: Get a job and support yourself, then you may be in a position to criticise . . . you are currently a useless left-wing envious loser!

    Reply
  13. Kittycatkin

     /  23rd September 2014

    Oh, please; Let’s not turn into one of those forums like Disqus where personal attacks (which are very hard to to respond to) take the place of reasoned debate. I left Disqus because of a troll who was viciously attacking me because my views differed from hers; the attacks were totally irrelevant and were very disturbing. I’d hate to see this go that way.

    Reply
  14. Kittycatkin

     /  23rd September 2014

    Oh help, I mean ‘very hard NOT to respond to’.

    Reply
  1. Labour’s massive malevolent malaise, continued? | Your NZ

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