Northland Poll: Peters 54%, Osborne 34%

3 News have just announced a new poll for the Northland by-election (although some of the numbers don’t add up).

  • Winston Peters (NZ First) 54%
  • Mark Osborne (National) 34%
  • Willow-Jean Prime (Labour) 10%
  • Other 2%

That’s a significant lead. But some of the numbers are a bit weird.

Can you trust Winston Peters?

  • Yes 43%
  • No 48%
  • Don’t know 9%

So 11% more say they will vote for Peters than trust him. It’s possible that voters on the left don’t trust him but put more priority on scoring a hit on National.

But more curious is the number who say which party they have switched from to support Peters:

  • 75% of Labour voters
  • 25% of National voters

In last year’s election:

  • National got 49% – 25% of that is about 12%.
  • Labour got about 17% – 75% of that is 13%.
  • NZ First got 13%.

That adds up to 38%, well short of 54%. Greens got about 11% and Conservatives got 6% which if all voted for Winston gets up to his poll support.

And if you take 25% off National’s 49% you get about 37%, a bit above 34%. This suggests that the poll isn’t particularly accurate.

500 Northland voters were polled.

The margin of error on a poll that size:

  • 40%-60% ±4.5
  • 25% or 75% ±3.9
  • 10% or 90% ±2.7

That allows for quite a bit of variation.

Regardless, Peters is well out in front. National will have much more organisation and help to get their supporters out the vote than NZ First who haven’t stood a candidate in Northland for about a decade, but it still looks ominous for National.

There has already been a much higher than normal number of people who have early voted.

Other poll results:

Are the bridge upgrades a bribe?

  • Yes 74 – percent
  • No 22 – percent
  • Don’t know – 4 percent

Do you agree with the bridge upgrades?

  • Yes – 58 percent
  • No – 39 percent
  • Don’t know – 3 percent

Read more:

Leave a comment


  1. David

     /  25th March 2015

    How many were on the Maori roll, not something 3 news would worry about in case they were labelled as credible or news organisation or some such slur

  2. Mike C

     /  25th March 2015

    It’s a “Paddy-Poll” 🙂

    Doesn’t mean jack-shit. LOL.

  3. That 43% of the public trust Winston Peters is profoundly depressing.

    • duperez

       /  25th March 2015

      I understand the sentiment but the Prime Minister has a clear history of selective amnesia and according to some has often lied to us, even in the House.
      He trustworthiness figures are high. Is it depressing he gets the vote of confidence? Is it depressing his mendacity is so normal? Is it depressing that a mere underling MP (not that Peters would see himself as such!) has demands of honesty greater of him greater than that of the Prime Minister?

  4. kittycatkin

     /  25th March 2015

    If they elect him, they deserve him.

    • Mike C

       /  25th March 2015

      I am sick to death of Peters utilizing Left Wing Journalists to monopolise the media and press. The cunning old bastard is a manipulative charleton and a thief.

      If the North vote Winston in as their MP, then they are dumb arses, and deserve what ever the Government doesn’t give them after this weekend 🙂

      • It’s not just that Peters utilises journalists, they flock to him for stories and give him largely sympathetic, unscrutinised and virtually promotional coverage in excess of all other candidates combined.

  5. "the reality is...."

     /  25th March 2015

    There can be no doubt that Winston will take a good percentage of the Northland vote, but turn around the 9000 majority that National currently enjoy…….not a hope in hell!

    Stevie Joyce will be preparing the cue-cards for Mark’s maiden speech over Easter……

  6. Mike C

     /  25th March 2015

    Most of the early votes will be from the National supporters. Just the same as during the 2014 General Election 🙂

  7. We shall see on saturday.. but one thing maybe certain : it IS a by-election not a BUY-election !
    Move over the ‘force for the north’ is coming through… 🙂

  8. Disraeli Gladstone

     /  25th March 2015

    I don’t find the “voting for Winston but don’t trust him” result that surprising. I think people just don’t trust politicians in general.

    There was a poll at one point showing more people trusting Dotcom than John Key (which is bizarre enough in of itself, I don’t know why you would trust a convicted felon fighting for self-survival), but still voting for Key anyway.

    Trust isn’t as important an issue when the public has lost trust in the entire political system.

  1. Polity picks Osborne in Northland | Your NZ

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