Winston’s whopper win

Winston Peters has been given a huge victory by voters in Northland by-election.

  • PETERS, Winston (NZ First), 15,359
  • OSBORNE, Mark (National) 11,347
  • PRIME, Willow-Jean (Labour) 1,315

Votes for others totalled 403:

  • CARR, Joe (Independent) 107
  • HERBERT, Maki (Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis) 85
  • GRIEVE, Robin (ACT) 66
  • PORTER, Rueben Taipari (Mana) 55
  • PAINTING, Rob (Climate) 38
  • ROGAN, Bruce ((Independent) 22
  • BONNER, Adrian Paul (Independent) 17
  • HOLLAND, Adam (Independent) 14
  • Informal votes 43

Votes counted 28,468 – it was a big turnout for a by-election.

This is an election night majority of 4,012 which is a huge turnaround from National’s Mike Sabin’s 9,300 lead last year (52.74%of the candidate vote).

Percentages:

  • PETERS, Winston (NZ First), 53.95%
  • OSBORNE, Mark (National) 39.86%
  • PRIME, Willow-Jean (Labour) 4.62%

Interestingly that matches what polls had predicted for Peters midweek (53% and 54%) but shows an increase for Osborne (from 34% and 36%) and a decrease for Prime (10% and 9%).

Party vote in the 2014 general election:

  • National 17,412 (48.97%)
  • Labour 5,913 (16.63%)
  • NZ First 4,546 (12.79%)
  • Green 3,855 (10.84%)
  • Conservative 2,243 (6.31%)
  • Internet-Mana 601 (1.69%)
  • Focus 216 (0.61%)
  • ACT 162 (0.46%)

So even the small party vote reduced significantly. This time it turned out to be a two horse race between a nimble old nagger and a draughthorse.

NZ First didn’t stand a candidate in Northland last year so the candidate vote isn’t a useful comparison.

http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electorate-35.html

Leave a comment

10 Comments

  1. David

     /  29th March 2015

    Osborn was just too damn creepy looking to vote for, I know that’s shallow and shouldn’t matter but he was a terrible selection.

    Reply
    • Yes, he was one of National’s major mistakes since the Sabin issue first came up.

      Reply
    • Mike C

       /  29th March 2015

      Yes … they should have selected a retired Medical Doctor, or something along similar lines. Someone who had some long term credibility and mana. Ex-Policemen and Local Body Politicians just don’t cut it.

      Reply
  2. David

     /  29th March 2015

    Oh and I would fire the governor of the reserve bank. He is the poster boy for provincial neglect for being alone in the world by putting up already high interest rates and LVR restrictions because of central auckland house prices.
    If you are in the provinces trying to export while the value of your house is static and the headline says deflation it’s hard not to feel neglected and wonder who is running the place.

    Reply
    • David –
      Home lending rates are 5% – since when has that been high by NZ standards?
      The big driver of inflation is Auckland house prices, but there is zilch that the RBNZ can do about that.

      Reply
      • David

         /  29th March 2015

        My point is that if you live outside auckland and have been sold the export led recovery and there is no inflation (house prices arnt in the CPI calculation) you do think the monetary policy is being run to compensate for auckland councils shortcomings. The NZD is way overvalued and English just shrugs his shoulders coz he just doesn’t care.
        You can get a 30year fixed mortgage in the US for under 3%, 3.5% in the UK which basically means you can pay your mortgage off a third quicker in countries that have proper monetary policy.

        Reply
        • David –
          I am sympathetic to your worry that NZ has a two-speed economy – Auckland (driven by a frothy housing market) and the rest of NZ. But:

          1. The NZ dollar is not overvalued – it set by supply and demand. For NZ to change the price of the money, it has to increase money supply. However, NZ does not have underlying deflation – quite the opposite. So any increase in money supply would be directly inflationary. If you can suggest another way, I am all ears.

          2. Interest rates are set by supply and demand. If you have a way of reducing the current high demand for money I am all ears. Short of building a wall around Auckland and making it another country (not an entirely horrible idea) I cannot see a practical way of doing what you want.

          4. Interest rates are lower in the UK and the US because they are different economies from NZ. UK mortgage rates are currently ridiculously low because their economy is in the crap.

          5. House prices and rentals are in the CPI.

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  29th March 2015

            The simple solution to Auckland’s overpriced housing is two-fold:
            1. give property owners back their property rights to do what they wish with their property subject only to not harming their neighbours (and legislate proper criteria for that), and
            2. legislate that Councils are responsible only for health and safety of new buildings and “caveat emptor” is the rule for quality and durability. Then sack 90% of the building bureaucracy.

            The downside may be a near immediate collapse of house prices and equity down to sane levels.

            Reply
  3. "the reality is...."

     /  29th March 2015

    Me, I’m off to bake ‘humble pie”

    Reply
  4. Interesting.. Maki Herbert (ALCP), beat the Act & Mana candidates.

    ‘put the Toke in the Tokerau’

    Reply

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