Herald story on poll changes

Newspaper stories aren’t always like the used to be, fixed in print once the presses roll.

David Farrar pointed out in A Labour member complains:

First let’s deal with the headline of the story:

Has the leak worked? Poll boost for Labour

The headline writer should be shot.

Labour has lifted by six points to its highest level since March 2014 in the Roy Morgan Poll.

Labour is up to 32 per cent in the poll – up six points from a fortnight ago while National was down six points to 43 per cent support.

However, the impact of Labour’s analysis of leaked Auckland real estate data remains unclear.

The poll of 886 voters began on June 29 and ended the day after Labour released that data on July 11.

So 90% of the poll was before the release. So the headline is trying to manufacture a story.

However NZ Herald currently has this headline with the story:

Poll boost for Labour

By David Fisher, Claire Trevett

Labour has lifted by six points to its highest level since March 2014 in the Roy Morgan Poll.

Labour is up to 32 per cent in the poll – up six points from a fortnight ago while National was down six points to 43 per cent support.

However, the impact of Labour’s analysis of leaked Auckland real estate data remains unclear.

The poll of 886 voters began on June 29 and ended the day after Labour released that data on July 11.

What Farrar probably doesn’t know is that the story has changed since the headline was written, and then the headline was changed.  I saw the original version, as did Keith Ng who pointed out:

Oi . I mathed it for you.

The data was released by Labour with substantial help by NZ Herald six days prior, not a week.

One of the article authors responded:

ha! I was so busy trying to find it in the fine print I didn’t look at the top bit!

Since then the headline and story have now been edited:

From:

Has the leak worked? Poll boost for Labour

However it us unclear how much of the poll was taken before Labour released it’s analysis of leaked Auckland real estate agent data, which was a week ago.

To:

Poll boost for Labour

However, the impact of Labour’s analysis of leaked Auckland real estate data remains unclear.

The poll of 886 voters began on June 29 and ended the day after Labour released that data on July 11.

Farrar must have copy pasted after the story was edited, but before the headline was edited.

6 Comments

  1. kittycatkin

     /  18th July 2015

    I see that the Conservatives are also up. HOW ? WHY ? WHO ?

    Isn’t 888 people a small number ? I can’t remember what the number is that is considered a reliable one for a poll. The Waikato Times once did one on the street…it was a single figure.

    • Up 0.5 doesn’t mean much, 0.5% of 888 is 4.5 ticks, and because they round to the nearest 0.5 one extra can make the difference.

    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  18th July 2015

      There are two sources of error in polls, sampling error and statistical probability. The statistical probability is that a 50% result (say National support) has an uncertainty of approx sqrt of number polled, so + or – 30 in a poll of 900, about 3%. But the sampling error is on top of that and unknown – depends on how well the sample represents the whole population. Polling companies use a variety of fudges to try to reduce that error.

  2. kiwi_guy

     /  18th July 2015

    Yeah they change stories or headlines and disappear stories altogether on their website.

    Its like the kiddie underlings go on the rampage when the boss is out of the office and he has to sort them out when he gets back in and sees the pigs breakfast they have made of it.

    The NZ Herald seems flooded with Gawker type click bait – “Pop starlets boyfriend bravely comes out as Polysexual on Twitter!” or “10 fabulous reasons straight guys need to have anally receptive sex!”.

    • Can you link to those two stories, I must have missed them.

      • kiwi_guy

         /  18th July 2015

        LOL, those were my own made up titles but based on the crazy stuff you see on Progressive propaganda sites like Gawker, Vice, Jezebel or XOJane.

        And the NZ Herald is in the same Social Justice Warrior vein with pics of Beibers backside or “body positive” propaganda:

        “These photos remind women all bodies are beautiful”

        http://www.nzherald.co.nz/fashion-beauty/news/article.cfm?c_id=42&objectid=11482539

        ” a project that aims to promote body love and diversity…Amy Herrmann became frustrated with the lack of diversity in media aimed towards women. ”

        “Lack of diversity” is Feminist code for “us fatties want to be told we are sexy and desirable by men”.

        Here is an example of the slow creep of purile “Listicles” in the NZ Herald:

        “Five weird rumours about 1D baby news”

        http://www.nzherald.co.nz/gossip/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501135&objectid=11482122

        Here’s another angry lesbian feminist type whinge:

        “Why is age still seen as a woman’s problem?”

        http://www.nzherald.co.nz/gossip/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501135&objectid=11481441

        There’s is another one about “free the nipple”, enraged feminists who think they should be able to go bare chested like men. starting a huge online media campaign, cant find that link right away, it was a couple of weeks ago.

        This stuff is produced by purile narcissistic, social media addicted, celebrity obssessed, 20 something white girls with a Media Communications and Gender Studies degree – with aspirations to be “writers” or “performance artists”.

        And that’s just what I have found scanning through trashy NZ Herald headlines for 5 minutes.