National down 6.5%, Labour up 6% (pre Chinese surname saga)

The latest Roy Morgan poll has National down substantially on June’s poll and Labour up by about the same amount – but this poll was taken from 29 June to Sunday 12 July, just one day into the Chinese surname story began so it would have had a negligible effect.

  • National 43% (down 6.5)
  • Labour 32 % (up 6)
  • Greens 13% (unchanged)
  • NZ First 7% (up 0.5)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5)
  • Conservative Party 1.5% (up 0.5)
  • ACT Party 0.5% (down 0.5)
  • United Future 0% (unchanged)
  • Internet-Mana 0% (unchanged)
  • Independent/Others 1.5% (down 0.5)

National has shed support to Labour and possibly to the Maori and Conservative Parties.

This probably reflects on a difficult period for National with negative coverage of the Saudi sheep deal and Nick Smith’s difficulty in managing the growing Auckland housing issue, plus declining dairy prices giving concern about where the the economy is headed.

Other indicators are also negative for Prime Minister John Key. The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating fell steeply in July – now at 118 (down 17.5pts) its lowest since September 2013 while ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating fell to 113.9 in July – the lowest since October 2012. Consumer Confidence has now fallen for three straight months.

This is despite news last week that it looks possible that the Government might make their surplus for the year after all.

The Roy Morgan poll for August may give an indication whether this poll result was a temporary blip or if Labour’s recovery at the expense of National can be sustained or improved.

The Chinese Effect

As already stated this won’t show if there has been any effect on support of parties due to Labour’s Chinese profiling (some have called it racist) and their highlighting of foreign property buyers despite providing no data or evidence of the scale (they made highly speculative claims only).

It makes the timing of the Chinese speculator strategy interesting – will that take away the gains just made, will it make little difference or will Labour get a further boost?

It’s worth noting that this isn’t necessarily an extraordinary shift in support although it’s a major shift over the past two months.

Since the election:

  • October 2014 – National 43.5%, Labour 22.5%
  • November 2014 – National 49.5%, Labour 24%
  • December 2014 – National 46%, Labour 27%
  • January 2015 – National 52%, Labour 26%
  • February 2015 – National 49%, Labour 30%
  • March 2015 – National 46.5%, Labour 31%
  • April 2015 – National 45.5%, Labour 27.5%
  • May 2015 – National 54%, Labour 25.5%
  • June 2015 – National 49.5%, Labour 26%
  • July 2015 – National 43%, Labour 32%

This suggests quite a bit of volatility in support for both parties.

RoyMorgan2015-July

Source: Roy Morgan

Leave a comment

17 Comments

  1. Shagger

     /  18th July 2015

    Next month will be the one to watch- no doubt at TS they will claim victory – oh wait it’s not elections yet

    Reply
  2. Alan Wilkinson

     /  18th July 2015

    It is always the Morgan poll that gets headlines because it departs from the mean so far. Seems to be a case of the most unreliable source getting the most attention. I would take it with the usual pinch of salt until other polls come out.

    Reply
    • As shown it’s a poll that can fluctuate quite a bit.

      And this poll caused quite a flutter until people realised it didn’t cover Labour’s Chinese attack.

      Reply
  3. I would expect the next couple of years to show a slow erosion of National support. HDC, Sky City BS, the Flag BS, an economy which is slowing, familiarity breeding contempt, the ridiculous Amy Adams Customs give us your smartphone/laptop and password over reach bill…… All factors to slow etch away at Nationals support base. I find myself looking around for an alternative and there is none. its National or the coalition of losers. i suppose I will have to look seriously at ACT though that is just national by proxy

    Reply
    • I agree with pretty much all of this. National should be a developing third train wreck but the main alternatives look, ah, a bit of a worry.

      Reply
  4. rayinnz

     /  18th July 2015

    Maybe this the reason for Labours present strategy “National Light”
    Racism✅
    90 day trial✅
    Sell everything not nailed down?

    Reply
  5. Pete Kane

     /  18th July 2015

    Gosh that Conservative vote hangs in there to an extent no matter what. And effectively every vote ‘counts’ in determining the outcome – just in different formats.

    Reply
  6. Pete Kane

     /  18th July 2015

    Does Internet-Mana still exist in that configuration? I seemed to recall there was an automatically provided for lapse in the arrangement if they failed representation.

    Reply
    • I’m fairly sure they have separated now but Roy Morgan persists in combining them as a coalition.

      The also headline with “Support for Labour/Greens coalition overtakes National for first time since New Zealand Election” but there’s no such thing as a Labour-Green coalition and never has been.

      Reply
      • Pete Kane

         /  18th July 2015

        That’s my understanding Pete. What you say about the Greens/Labour though illustrates the varied reporting (and politicians mixed messages). you’re right to the extent that the “left” have never approached an election with an agreement in place unlike Nation and team.
        Labour leadership castigate reporters, who remind them of their poor popular support. for not understanding how MMP works in terms of viewing all polling as a block of support but then compound the problem with confusing configurations of said block. The media themselves selectively interet configurations to suit a particular story – etc etc. It is certainly presented as more complicated to the voters (from the Left anyway than it needs to be).
        You would think that most of the Roy Morgan poll was prior to the events of last weekend? Which you might then conclude if the weekends ‘events’ had an influence on the tailend of that polling then it might be pretty b………… significant.
        Finally, Zedd my feelings exactly.

        Reply
        • Pete Kane

           /  18th July 2015

          Sorry first par edit
          That’s my understanding Pete. What you say about the Greens/Labour though illustrates the varied reporting (and politicians mixed messages). You’re right to the extent that the “left” have never approached an election with an agreement in place unlike National and team.

          Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  18th July 2015

          If the 2 days of the 14 polled that possibly covered Labour and the Herald’s campaign account for the apparent swing of 6% then the actual swing must have been 42% over those two days. A serious case of wishful thinking methinks.

          Reply
          • As far as I understand polling the bulk is often done earlier in the polling period and the hard to fill demographics are chased up until the end of the period.

            I don’t know if Roy Morgan do that.

            Reply
  7. “YAHOOO”.. hopefully an increasing trend ! 🙂

    Reply
  8. John Schmidt

     /  18th July 2015

    Just realised that this indicates that a fix to the Auckland housing crisis is only an election away. With Labour returning to power in coalition with the Greens the need for massive spend on Auckland infrastructure and buildimg new houses simply disappears when they reverse all the successes of the current government which in turn causes NZ to revert back to an economy that encourages mass exodus of people from NZ therefore reversing the current demand which then makes all the current sucess pressures disapear. Never in the history of the world has the prospect of setting up an environment that assures failure looked so appealing.

    Reply
  1. Poll “not quite the bounce Labour hoped for” | Your NZ

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