One News Colmar Brunton poll – July 2015

One News/Colmar Brunton poll for July 2015 – polling period Saturday 11th (Twyford Saturday) to Wednesday 15 July.

  • National 47% (down 1)
  • Labour  32% (up 1)
  • Greens 13% (up 3)
  • NZ First 7% (up 1)
  • Mana 0.5% (unchanged)
  • Maori Party 0.4% (down 1)
  • ACT Party 0.4% (unchanged)
  • Conservative Party 0% (down 2)

The last One News Colmar Brunton poll was 23-27 May 2015.

Apart from Greens back up a bit and Conservatives dropping to 0% there’s negligible change.

The trends look very non-trendy:

ColmarBruntonJuly2015

Preferred Prime Minister: “Now thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime Minister?” IF NONE: “Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”

  • John Key 40% (down 4)
  • Andrew Little 8% (down 1)
  • Winston Peters 7% (down 2)
  • Helen Clark 2% (up 1.4, really but she’s just been back for a visit)
  • Metiria Turei 1% (up 0.4)
  • David Shearer 1% (up 0.3)
  • Phil Goff 0.6% (up 0.1)
  • Grant Robertson 0.4% (down 0.5)
  • Stewart Nash 0.4%
  • Russel Norman 0.2% (down 0.8)
  • Judith Collins 0.2% (up 0.2)
  • Phil Twyford 39.5% (just joking)

Link to results on Colmar Brunton political poll page  and PDF details

Sorry if anyone saw the initial post, that was from what I saw on the news but the Colmar Brunton website has greater accuracy.

Leave a comment

19 Comments

  1. SteveRemmington

     /  19th July 2015

    Did Andy actually say that his 8% popularity is within margin of error?

    Bloody hell….8% is not much higher than the total margin of error!

    Reply
  2. Mike C

     /  19th July 2015

    Thank Fucking Goodness !!!

    Some credible Political Poll results 🙂

    Reply
  3. Mike C

     /  19th July 2015

    Hang on a Minute …

    If John Key is down 4% and Andrew Little is down 1% and Winston Peters is down 2% …

    Then who were the recipients of that 7%?

    Reply
    • Refresh your page, I’ve added some more, but not quite a few tiny results.

      Reply
      • Mike C

         /  19th July 2015

        Doesn’t add up to 7% though …

        It’s pretty sad that Helen Clarks ratings still beat current MP’s like Phil Goff and David Shearer and Grant Robertson and Materia Turei etc

        Reply
  4. Conservative party vote is unchanged 2%

    Reply
    • That’s what I saw on the news but it’s not what Colmar results show. Conservatives are down 2% to 0.

      Reply
      • Pete Kane

         /  19th July 2015

        Given the data above (101% total) seems what was reported is wrong (got the 2s mixed up – actually 100% fall if they wanted to add a little ‘drama).

        Reply
  5. Pete Kane

     /  19th July 2015

    Certainly a little better for Labour than I was expecting after hearing the ‘hint’ as to what we might expect given on Q&A this morning,

    Reply
    • Yes. Still early days as the polling period was at the same time as the story unfolded – and it’s still getting coverage.

      Reply
  6. Does anyone remember how quickly National went up in the polls after Brash’s Orewa speech?

    Found it. Slightly different timing but very quickly.

    From 28% in the polls a month before the speech, the National Party jumped to 45% two weeks after it: ten points ahead of Labour.

    Reply
    • Pete Kane

       /  19th July 2015

      Very much a “whole of country issue” though. And I seemed to recall the reporting being quite clear, quite simple really in terms of what was meant (I’m talking perception regardless where you came down on the issue).

      Reply
  7. Alan Wilkinson

     /  19th July 2015

    I rest my case. The Morgan poll is so flakey it is meaningless.

    Reply

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