Poll “not quite the bounce Labour hoped for”

At the end of Q & A this morning Michael Parkin revealed a little about a One News/Colmar Brunton due out tonight.

He said there’s a few surprising numbers but significantly it was “maybe not quite the bounce that Labour hoped for”.

The polling period would have presumably been this week so will partially reflect the evolving story about foreign property ownership and profiling based on Chinese sounding names.

A Roy Morgan poll published on Friday barely covered this issue as polling concluded last Sunday but showed a significant swing from National to Labour – see National down 6.5%, Labour up 6% (pre Chinese surname saga)

UPDATE: apparently The poll period was 11-15 July which starts last Saturday and runs through to Wednesday so will only partially reflect response to the foreign purchasing/Chinese surname issue.

In any case single polls are only snapshot indicators, we’ll have to wait and see if any trends are affected.

UPDATE2: Prepared excuses?

It’ll be interesting, but Colmar Brunton’s built in 5% lean to the right should make it look OK for the Nats. Expect the lead story to be a beat up about how the housing crisis exposure hasn’t helped Labour. As if that was why it was done.

As if.

Leave a comment

7 Comments

  1. So far I haven’t seen much of an explanation of the 6% swing

    Reply
    • It was polled just about all before the Twyford strategy was unleashed. National had come through a rough patch with a lot of focus on Murray McCully and sheep in the Middle East, and on Nick Smith struggling with Auckland housing.

      But as details in the poll link show the end results for both National and Labour weren’t out the ordinary for them, they had both had similar levels of support since last year’s election.

      The Roy Morgan in May had National on 54% so the two polls since are a steep downwards direction for them, but the 54% was considered probably an outlier so 43% could just as easily be.

      Don’t forget margin of error of about +-3.5 for National and +-3.0 for Labour (at 95% confidence).

      Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  19th July 2015

      There isn’t much explanation for most of the Morgan poll swings other than their sampling technique doesn’t give consistent results.

      Reply
  2. I’m hoping 2 more LONG years.. will see ‘team Keys’ support crash ! 🙂

    Fingers Crossed..

    Reply
  3. Alan Wilkinson

     /  19th July 2015

    I posted this at NBR wrt the current moral panic but it deserves posting here too.

    Shane Murphy

    If you want to see mass stupidity in action, here it is. The facts are wrong: it is NZ resident Asians buying, not foreigners; there is a serious supply shortage in Auckland with new builds way below normal and below the other NZ cities despite Auckland having the most growth over the past decade; Auckland has fewer vacant homes than normal and than the rest of the country; rents are rising because of a shortage of rental properties; foreign investment is an asset and resource, not a problem; the sellers benefit from high prices, not the buyers; the constraints on development are political and bureaucratic, not infrastructure; the property market has been wrecked by the destruction of property rights, not by the market participants; taxes can only increase prices, not reduce them; the long term value is determined by those who want to live in them, not those who want to buy them for investment; young, skilled, hard-working Asians will be the foundation of future generations of NZers and are a vital counterbalance to our aging European demographic and unskilled Polynesian youth. We have a choice between managing the explosive mix productively or sliding into an incompetent, poverty-ridden backwater. It is clear where Labour would take us given the chance.

    Reply
  1. Who’s buying Auckland property? | Your NZ

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