Preferred Prime Minister trends

Colmar Brunton have tweeted (@ColmarBruntonNZ ) ‘preferred Prime Minister’ trends for the last twenty years.

The second chart is of most immediate interest.

John Key climbed quickly to 30-ish as soon as he took over from Don Brash, and soon afterwards overtook Helen Clark, over a year out from the 2008 election. After that he climbed significantly more, but dropped off in 2011. Since then he has fluctuated, and while he’s bee lower he’s in risk of heading into the danger zone.

In the meantime since Clark resigned from leadership four successive Labour leaders have failed to impress. Andrew Little’s trend downwards will be a concern for some, but probably outweighed by concern about how yet another leadership change would look.

12 Comments

  1. BUCK WIT

     /  27th July 2015

    Key and Clark in my view both have an air of invincability about them. A more “Presedential” type of feel. When you look at them both, those in second spot within the respective parties are a very distant second. And that for the Nats is the looming problem

    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  27th July 2015

      Really? I doubt Key rated publicly at all before he became leader. Likewise Lange.

      • I think you miss @Buck Wits point – i know what he means / trying to say – that Key and Clark are quite different to the normal poly

        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  27th July 2015

          If he means that then I think he is wrong. You could argue that PMs like Holyoake, Kirk, Muldoon, Lange were equally as presidential just from my lifetime. But when he says the lack of an obvious replacement is a problem for National I am unconvinced for the reason I gave. I suspect obvious replacements are a lot less successful historically than the non-obvious ones. The reasons for that are probably interesting.

      • A lot of people rated Key when he entered Parliament, and he shone as Finance spokesman (Key pretty much cleaned Michael Cullen’s clock in the House). He was already starting to feature in the polls (though below Brash) long before he mounted the coup against Brash.
        So while John Key hadn’t necessarily been immediately noticed in the general public, in Parliament people were already taking notice of him as a future leader.

  2. Dave

     /  27th July 2015

    Labour have faced huge problems since mid-way through Clarke’s reign of poor management, in that she failed to bring other leaders through. Rather, Helen oppressed anyone around her, to ensure her continuation as leader, ruling with an iron fist.

    This becomes more obvious looking through the Labour rank and vile, and looking for possible leaders, natural leaders! Honestly, I cannot see one true leader. Yes, there are a few self-promoting leadership wannabees like Robertson, and the inexperienced Adhern, but not a real leader in sight.

    Real, authentic leaders draw people to them, who become avid followers who believe in the direction / objectives and work hard to achieve. This has not happened in Labour for years, and Angry Andy has the opposite effect, he is turning people off, internally, and the voting public.

    To me, there are 2 issues around the Leadership.

    1) Who should replace Angry Andy in the short term, within the next three months so they have a slim chance of winning in 2017, and

    2) Where will a real leader come from, who is hidden in their ranks somewhere, with a real personality, real leadership skills and personality, and one who believes in Labours policies and ideals. That is not easy, given their negativity, I suggest almost impossible.

    If they dont act soon, the 2nd place leader will continue to change between Winston and Andy for several months, before Wipes Andy out!

    Farewell Andy.

    • kittycatkin

       /  27th July 2015

      Unhandy Andy.

      What would the Labour leaders of the past think of what’s going on with Labour now ?

      I’d hate to be Helen Clark’s cat.

      I was reminded that there have been stuff-ups in Labour before-apparently there was a mess after Norman Kirk died, but I don’t remember it. I must confess to remembering his death, but not what followed.

  3. Alan Wilkinson

     /  27th July 2015

    Interesting that iPredict has only a 4% chance of Little going this year. Seems worth a punt at those odds.

    • Confucious say -

       /  27th July 2015

      Better to just keep buying more house in Wemuera – odds much better.

  4. Mike C

     /  27th July 2015

    Paula Bennett will be John Keys successor.

    • wasted westie

       /  27th July 2015

      bwahahahahahaha!!

    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  27th July 2015

      Quite possibly. She is pretty smart though not as experienced and formidable as Key.