Rugby World Cup prediction

I’ve been thinking about the chances of an All Black win in the world cup. They must be clear favourites and I rate them a 70% chance of winning.

They have a number of advantages over Australia:

  • world cup final experience
  • record over the last four years
  • less injuries and attrition and through this tournament
  • fitness (the Wallabies looked jaded in the second half against Argentina)
  • pressure on David Pocock (smart tactic building him up as essential for Aus win)
  • Wallabies have had to play all their cards, All Blacks have something up their sleeves
  • All Black versatility (winning a run away quarter final and a close hard fought semi)
  • captaincy
  • coaching (although the Australian coach Michael Cheika has transformed the Wallabies)

Of course Australia still have the goods and the chance to win, but i think it will be harder for them and less likely.

A prediction breakdown :

  • 30% – a 11+ win to New Zealand
  • 40% – a 1-10 point win to New Zealand
  • 20% a 1-10 point win to Australia
  • 10% – a 11+ win to Australia

Sorry Aussies, I may be biased but I think that’s a fair reflection of their respective merits. But both teams are obviously in with a good chance.

Leave a comment

9 Comments

  1. THUNDERBIRD 4

     /  29th October 2015

    the most telling aspect I saw between the teams last week was the ABs were put to the sword for a 80 brutal minutes, with the physicality of the Boks, where as the Wallabies looked absolutely shattered after the Pumas match. The fitness is the difference, and our out wide fire power will not be matched by any team. when we can inject Sonny Bill and Barret with 20 – 30 to go they are always on fire. SBW is such a great impact player as he is always good for not only the offload, but also he ties up 2,3,4 defenders and that is crucial for the overlap. I would not be surprised to see the ABs lift another gear. the Wallabies have been tested pretty hard by several teams this RWC, they must be exhausted, and they are most definitely carrying a few injuries

    Reply
  2. Brown

     /  29th October 2015

    I’d like to do the Aussis by lots. Their coach needs to get the squeaker in his voice box fixed as well.

    Reply
    • THUNDERBIRD 4

       /  29th October 2015

      Agree. be great if it was a full ass kicking like we gave the French

      Reply
      • Rob

         /  29th October 2015

        The problem with blowouts like that (to me anyway) is they become boring as it becomes obvious there is no show of the opposition making a comeback bar the complete collapse of the All Blacks, which isn’t going to happen.

        Reply
        • THUNDERBIRD 4

           /  29th October 2015

          I know what your saying, and actually kind of agree. Whilst a nail biter, the game against the Boks last week or the final in 2011 was edge of the seat stuff. But to see the Wallabies get a full hammering is so enjoyable.

          Reply
        • Joe Bloggs

           /  29th October 2015

          I would be very happy to be bored by watching Australia get absolutely thrashed.

          Reply
    • Joe Bloggs

       /  29th October 2015

      Funny. I might have worried about this in past years but I don’t have that worry this time… Wayne Smith seems to have worked miracles on the defensive plays, and the team looks settled and composed on attack for the full 80 minutes… If the ABs can keep a lid on penalties then we’re in with a good chance…

      Reply
  3. My prediction for the big final is that a camera will zoom on John Key and that he will be in the All Blacks changing room later. I’m trying to work out how Mike Hosking is going to get into the changing room. Under His Master’s skirts?

    Reply

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