Will Key stand again in 2017?

Audrey Young muses ahead about 2016, including on whether John key will decide whether to continue as National’s leader to contest the 2017 election or not.

Except for a calamity in 2017 if Key is going to stand down he needs to do it next year to give his replacement time to settle in and be up to speed by the time of the election.

Next year will be the year John Key has to decide if he wants to run for a fourth term in 2017. The good money is that he will.

The only reason not to do so would be boredom by him, a dive in popularity, scandal, ill-health, the economy going to hell, or a fear of failure.

None of those apply yet. There is nothing to suggest failure is a certainty. And the prospect of success has always been a stronger motivating force for John Key than fear of failure.

The New Zealand public is more conservative than Labour in Opposition has calculated, and Key will pin his hopes on Labour continuing to miscalculate that.

For all his idiotic appearances and antics with Auckland radio shock-jocks and, probably because of them, his Teflon has barely started to peel.

It’s unknown whether Key’s antics will trigger a tipping point of support loss or whether many voters forgive his idiocy because the Government seems to be managing ok.

Voters prefer stability generally.

Key continues to be helped by the lack of an opposition leader that comes close to matching his ability or appeal.

Andrew Little has managed to do something unexpected, present what at least appears to be a relatively united Labour caucus. But Little has not yet found a way of attracting the swing voters.

Key is also helped by the right/left combo mismatches.

Key/English with some minor party support versus Little/Turei/Shaw/Peters with no guarantee Peters would side with Labour/Greens.

Key needs to continue with more of the same plus trying to avoid too many or too major embarrassments.

Little needs to appear as something quite different. As does Labour.

Unless Labour can appear as mostly positive and capable of stepping up into government Key’s decision to have another crack in 2017 may be very tempting.

Leave a comment

29 Comments

  1. Timoti

     /  19th December 2015

    Key will stand unless something major happens. I can’t wait to watch the fireworks should Key win a fourth term. This blog will go berserk. Partisan Z will write of corruption and corporate greed influencing voters who think they are buying consumer goods instead of voting. The left will disintegrate. All manner of excuses will be forthcoming. Of course, the truth will be more mundane. John Key is a once in a life time politician. The left are right. The right are left and most people are reasonably happy with their lot. Boring, but true.

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  19th December 2015

      I think quite a factor in Key’s success is that he is not a professional politician but a skilled manager with the additional experience and skills of a trader who has to judge risks, people’s reactions and the right immediate response to unexpected events.

      Transferring these skills to politics is what has made him uniquely successful as a politician.

      Reply
      • Timoti

         /  19th December 2015

        What you say is what Lindsay Perigo had him on about in an interview just before he became PM. Perigo ask if talk of Key making snap judgements to issues rather than following a logical progression of problem solving was true. I forget the answer, but I didn’t forget Keys reaction…he became irritated. Perigo was having a dig at Keys lack of bedrock philosophy underlying his decisions making. Perigo was also irritated given Key had written good articles for Perigos Libertarian magazine. To Perigo, making decisions without a philosophical base is criminal…..ethics v pragmatism. Seems pragmatism is winning. But only on the surface of matters.

        Reply
    • kiwi guy

       /  19th December 2015

      “The left will disintegrate.”

      They already have – dildos flying everywhere!

      Reply
  2. Zedd

     /  19th December 2015

    yes.. an interesting scenario..
    BUT, If Key continues with the ‘schoolyard childish antics’.. anything is possible eg. crash & burn in the next 2 years ! 🙂

    We shall see……..

    Reply
  3. kiwi guy

     /  19th December 2015

    The Left calls these sexual degenerates “culturally vibrant” and Diversity!*TM:

    But a white straight man has a laugh at himself and the Left is like:

    Reply
    • This would be true, of course, if in fact he had laughed at himself.
      He didn’t, he laughed at and/or participated in a “prison rape scenario” allusion.
      And he, the Prime Minister no less, got laughed at. He got derided.

      Your “sexual degenerates” pictured above are funloving, gay, consenting “dom/sub” guys having a lark in some kind of parade or celebration. Notice how a bunch of ordinary folks in the background are taking absolutely no notice and maybe aren’t even aware of it going on.
      They happen to be white too.

      Two words stand out there; “rape” and “consenting”. Therein lies the difference.

      I’d rather have guys like that on a street near me than neo-fascist white supremacists.

      Reply
  4. kittycatkin

     /  19th December 2015

    Pete-as we all know what human anatomy looks like, need we be bombarded with KG’s obsessive need to broadcast this sort of thing ? It’s most inappropriate and he links it to anything, no matter how irrelevant.

    Reply
    • Fair point. Kiwiguy, can you please tone things down a bit.

      Reply
      • Joe Bloggs

         /  19th December 2015

        Thanks KCK and PG

        This stuff reminds me of some of the rants of Peter Burns, aka dad4justice. Quite unnecessary.

        Reply
      • Timoti

         /  19th December 2015

        He’s a throw away troll, Pete. In fact a parody of Righties like me. Maybe his end game is to force the issue with you and make you bar him. Thereby creating a shit-storm about the so-called freedom to post. Either.way its your blog and I doubt any genuine poster would hold it against you to dump him. That said I love his posts…..the fanaticism and time spent on dissing is truly amazing.

        Reply
        • Rob

           /  19th December 2015

          “He’s a throw away troll, Pete. In fact a parody of Righties like me.”
          Nah, he’s a mouth breathing right wing fruitloop. Just like you. At least he throws a little entertainment in.

          Reply
          • Timoti

             /  19th December 2015

            The troll master sends troll No 2 into the fray.

            “At least he throws a little entertainment in”

            Yes, seems No1 got all the ” smarts”.

            You just got a slack jaw.

            .

            Reply
            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  19th December 2015

              That’s a bit unkind, Timoti. I’m sure Rob has some hidden charm and his Mum loved him. It’s just keeping bad company with a bunch of loony Lefties that has made him all bitter and twisted so he can only ever make nasty comments. He just has his very own special needs, as do kg, Zedd and Ugly Truth in all their unique and peculiar ways.

              Look at it as main-streaming them so they slowly learn to play nicely or stop sucking their thumb all the time etc.

  5. Alan Wilkinson

     /  19th December 2015

    kg has a hobby that unfortunately tends to plaster over everyone and everything else. Could he not have his own thread each day to play in happily?

    Reply
    • Timoti

       /  19th December 2015

      Play School for trolls. We could download paint and photo-shop to his thread. Each day he would be given a topic and would have to produce 150 images for said topic. At the end of the day the rest of us judge his effort. If its not up to scratch, its haere ra.

      This sure aint up to scratch.

      http://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/haere-ra

      Reply
    • Robby

       /  19th December 2015

      Leave KG alone, he has as much right to be here as anyone else. Some of his posts are quite entertaining IMHO

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  19th December 2015

        You mean he has as much right to be teased as anyone else, I think.

        Some are entertaining, some have elements of truth, but many are irrelevant and objectionable and interminable repetition gets tedious and disruptive.

        Reply
      • Timoti

         /  19th December 2015

        He has no right to be here. None of us do. We are here because of Pete’s benevolence. Full stop.

        Reply
      • Zedd

         /  19th December 2015

        Some of KG stuff is probably a bit ‘over the top’ BUT some is quite amusing.. surely its up to PG to decide whats appropriate.. NOT sour-puss’

        Reply
  6. Some great repartee people. Thrust and parry! @ Timoti, I’ve heard you say this before about Pete’s benevolence, full stop. I don’t understand? Pete has established a public blog. The implication in that is surely an invitation for the public to blog on it? The tag line is: Free speech for those who don’t compromise free speech. Have I missed something here?

    There’s a third opinion of KG’s posts. They are often so extreme with such questionable intention that we do not know where KG really stands. I maintain he may be a kind of double-agent, a disguise artist. Regardless, he’s a good deal more entertaining than your average Troll. Have you noticed he frequently points us in the direction of decidedly left-wing opinions in his links and sometimes even by implication in his own words or the black humour of them?

    So unlike most of us on here, whose positions are fairly easily identified, KG could be a far-right extremist – an anarcho-capitalist white supremacist railing against cultural marxists and feminists – or he/she(?) could be a feminist, cultural marxist/socialist pretending to be an anarcho-capitalist …. you get my drift. We don’t know? We just don’t know!

    Our not knowing puts us in the position of having to respond to him from a position of what we believe him to be. A position of belief rather than of any certainty. (Although you can be certain in your belief I guess?) E.g. I can support my ‘natural ethics’ position in a debate with Alan’s anarcho-capitalism ethos, but I can’t really argue with KG like this. He leaves me with less certainty of my ground and with little certainty as to the outcome of my responses to him.

    For instance, in my response to KG’s “sexual deviants” post above, I may have argued the opposite of his point of view? There’s a fair chance I did. This might piss him off, though indications are I’m unlikely to change his mind about anything. Unfortunately for me, there’s an equally fair chance I further explained and expounded exactly the position he/she ‘truly’ believes and wants repeated and reinforced on this blogsite?

    I don’t like this situation, but in the sense we are all ‘virtual entities’ on here, KG has got it sussed and sewn up as far as I can see. We just don’t know “what” he is and, unless he declares his exact position or his true beliefs, we never will know.

    This is getting long, isn’t it? Ahhhh, what the hell.

    I consider my thoughts and opinions to be quite elevated, while remaining mostly grounded too. I’d say most of us operate somewhere from the ground up to the higher altitudes in the biosphere perhaps?

    I put it to you that KG, of all people, may be looking down at us all the while from way up in the stratosphere?

    Just a Saturday night musing …. hope you enjoy ….?

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  19th December 2015

      You make the false assumption kg’s posts need be taken seriously. I merely assume he is leering insanely out of a Joker mask and if he needs anything it is medication and certainly not a rational reply.

      Reply
      • @ Alan – A very rational response on your part. And look, don’t get me wrong, I’m essentially with you on this. Of course we can ignore KG’s posts, or, for that matter, reply irrationally or obtusely. (I tried that today with “Grand Theft Auto”)

        However, I put it to you that most of us don’t ignore him. I don’t because I often find him both funny and thought provoking and/or provocative.

        So, in a sense, it matters not whether his posts are taken seriously or not. He’s free to post on here while the maxim “free speech” applies. He insures he’s not a cockroach-style troll.
        I still reckon he’s got us by the short-n-curlies every which way and loose.

        Reply
  7. Blazer

     /  19th December 2015

    ‘Key continues to be helped by the lack of an opposition leader that comes close to matching his ability or appeal.’….appeal yes but ability!Key is like Reagan,handpicked and marketed to the people by very clever people like Crosby Textor.They coach him in his responses to issues ,contour his behaviour ,and monitor polls to align his ‘sentiments’.His PR is largely copied,from what worked for Helen Clark with a large dose of a humble man ,made good who you could have a beer with.Imo a total construct…cant hammer a nail into a piece of wood and be surprised if he even likes beer.Hes all the Nats have however and a 4th term would just encourage the americanisation of what should be a country with its own foreign policy and non alignment with war mongering imperialistic capitalism.

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  19th December 2015

      The Left have, persistently and arrogantly, grossly underestimated Key. You continue that excellent tradition that has brought them continuing defeat and irrelevance.

      They are trapped in their own Matrix, doomed to believe other people stupid while not recognising it in themselves.

      Reply
    • @ Blazer

      I think you might underestimate the power of the ‘people’ behind John Key – (or perhaps you don’t?) – like those behind Ronald Wilson Reagan, and maybe they are muchly the same people?

      I believe these are very powerful people indeed, the people at the very centre of war-mongering imperialist capitalism. I was going to say ‘the very “heart”‘ but that organ is utterly absent where these creatures are concerned.

      “the americanisation of what should be a country with its own foreign policy and non alignment” …. yes indeed!

      And its own independently agreed self-image, values, democratic institutions, constitution, bi-cultural multiculturalism, uniqueness, diversity … et al ad infinitum. An independent “nation state”. Such things hardly exist in the world any longer unfortunately. Soon there won’t be any points of reference or comparison left. The grey zone of acultural Secular Western Christendom.

      What do we get instead of an agreed, evaluated ‘own country’?
      We get this friggin’ flag farce!

      Whoops! “I see my true colours shining through ….” – Cyndi Lauper

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  19th December 2015

        You have an unhealthy fixation on the aggregate rather than the individual, PZ. You will struggle to shift the mass whereas the individual is still relatively free to adopt whatever cultural eccentricities he desires with whatever like-minded characters he wishes and, with the internet, pretty much anywhere he wants. For that reason I expect the nation state will continue to fragment as like-minded individuals associate across national boundaries much more strongly than they do with others of their own country.

        Reply
        • @ Alan – nothing unhealthy about my fixations at all. It takes considerable aggregation to wage war the way we, the West, do. Indeed, I’d argue it takes something approaching monumental aggregation. The individual, let’s say bomb aimer over Cambodia or drone pilot sitting in Minnesota poised to ‘eliminate’ someone in Syria, doesn’t say, “No. I won’t pull this trigger” do they? (Well, perhaps some do? We’d never know, would we?). There is no shortage of collective insanity out there. The herd instinct takes good care of that.

          The rest of what you say are good points. I guess it remains to be seen what positive outcomes result from the fragmentation of the nation state? Perhaps much smaller aggregations of people will demand their own nation states? And, in a world of fragmented nation states that doesn’t really recognise nation statehood, why shouldn’t they get them?

          Hopefully the individual’s “relative freedom” of which you speak is another step on the path towards everyone on earth individually being able to vote on certain issues?

          Personally I think our ‘relative’ freedom at this point in time is very relative indeed.

          Reply

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s