Poll: vote switching analysis

Colmar Brunton have published poll results that analyse vote switching in 2015.

This indicates that a significant number of voters change their party preference, even in a non-election year.

Note that the percentages are of eligible voters so don’t equate to party preference poll results which only include those say they will vote.


The 8.3% gained by Labour will probably reflect a recovery from their very low 2014 election result.

Apart from that movement the gains and losses of around 5% for the two major parties shows that voter sentiment is volatile in a significant portion of votes, and is more than enough to swing elections.

Note that this doesn’t measure the number of people who might switch their party support. Over the years analysed, 2014 and 2015, I didn’t switch my preference but I am always a floating voter and have no idea which party I will vote for in 2017. I usually don’t make a final decision until election day.

There are also details of Colmar Brunton’s 2014 vote switching analysis here.

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