Flag poll – closer but not close yet

Flag change promoter Lewis Holden is promoting the latest flag poll as a promising trend but there’s still quite a gap to close up if the flag is going to change.

  • Definitely or probably vote to keep the current NZ flag: 56%
  • Definitely or probably vote for the new flag design: 36%

cbb-1904-govt-nz-750x202-ref-two

Support for new flag gaining momentum – poll

Change the NZ Flag Chairman Lewis Holden says a poll of 1000 people earlier this month showed 36 per cent of people support changing the flag while 56 per cent want to keep the current one.

“Support for changing the flag is definitely increasing, while support for the existing one is softening,” Mr Holden said.

Support for the new flag has increased from 25% last September to 36% this month. Meanwhile, support for the old flag has dropped from 69% to 56%.

According to those two poll differences the gap is closing but it’s still not close enough for those wanting to keep the current flag. It isn’t stated whether the two polls being compared were similar polls or not.

A Newshub/Reid Research poll done in January:

  • Change – 30%
  • No change – 61%
  • Don’t know/don’t care – 9%

So there’s been some change since then too, but the questions were different.

“This shows New Zealanders are starting to embrace the new flag design because it’s more representative of our nation.”

It is still early days but the trend is pointing in a positive direction for the Change the NZ Flag initiative.

NZ Herald has more details in Flag-change backers welcome poll trend of a Curia survey of 1000 people January 28-February 2, margin of error 3.6%.

In March there will be a referendum for the public to choose between the current NZ Flag and the flag design which won the first referendum last year. At this stage which of these statements is closest to your view?

  • I would definitely vote to keep the current flag: 48%
  • I would probably vote to keep the current NZ flag: 8%
  • I would probably vote for the new flag design: 12%
  • I would definitely vote for the new flag design: 24%
  • Unsure/refuse: 9%

It may be that more people are warming to the new flag design but there’s still a big gap.

Whether it will get close in the referendum will depend on a number of factors, including how campaigns for and against are run and voter turnout (people wanting change could be more motivated to vote, although some are strongly against change)

And possibly politics and politicians will also be a factor. If as anti-TPPA/anti-Key protesters claim there’s a groundswell of public opinion building against Key and the current government that could manifest in a strong anti-Key/anti-flag vote.

But there could just as easily be a backlash against the growing excesses of protesters.

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66 Comments

  1. Oliver

     /  16th February 2016

    There are those polls again. The polls are being used as another tool of voter suppression. The polls are an attempt not to reflect public opinion, but to shape it. In this case shape opinion to change the flag. By giving the impression that public opinion is for change.

    I’m going to do my own poll here.

    If you want to change the flag like this comment. If you want to keep the current flag vote thumps down.

    Reply
    • Mefrostate

       /  16th February 2016

      Explain how it “gives the impression that public opinion is for change” when every single poll shows a preference for the ‘no change’ option.

      Reply
      • Oliver

         /  16th February 2016

        You are correct but if you read between the lines and look how the pro flag commentators are putting their spin on the polls, they are saying the polls show support for change is increasing giving the impression that the public are warming to the idea of change. People tend to have a “sheep” mentality where they follow the herd. If people believe that the herd is heading for change they will follow. Now I think this is just spin and has no substance.

        Here’s the part I’m referring to-
        Change the NZ Flag Chairman Lewis Holden says a poll of 1000 people earlier this month showed 36 per cent of people support changing the flag while 56 per cent want to keep the current one.

        “Support for changing the flag is definitely increasing, while support for the existing one is softening,” Mr Holden said.

        Reply
        • Mefrostate

           /  16th February 2016

          Interesting take, although I don’t really have an issue with reporters reporting a trend if it exists.

          Reply
          • Oliver

             /  16th February 2016

            Well that really is the question. Does a trend exist? The promoter is claiming a 10% increase in support of change. But in the world of polls 10% is negligible and is hardly an indication that there is a trend developing. No it’s the promoters trying to rally easy led people to embrace change.

            Reply
            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  16th February 2016

              10% is not negligible but a single poll is certainly not definitive. Given that it is a lobby group poll your scepticism is warranted.

    • Oliver

       /  16th February 2016

      I will be closing my poll at 9pm. Results will be calculated and posted in the comments. Thank you for your participation.

      Reply
      • Nelly Smickers

         /  16th February 2016

        How come it closed early ollie?

        It’s only 8.12pm and I see you’ve posted the results.

        I didn’t even get to cast my vote 😦

        Reply
    • Oliver

       /  16th February 2016

      Here are the results of the flag change poll.

      25% are for changing the flag.

      75% are for maintaining our current flag.

      I predict the referendum will show the same.

      Reply
      • Which flag poll? Your meaningless non-poll?

        Apart from it being unscientific and such as small sample as to make it useless how do you know how many people downticked because they thought it was stupid?

        Reply
        • Oliver

           /  16th February 2016

          Why are my polls any less meaningful then the one’s you use?

          Reply
          • You don’t know that?

            I quote scientific polls with sample sizes of around 1000 and margins of error around 3-4% at 95% confidence.

            You don’t know your sample size nor your population, it’s a self selecting poll (not random selection), you can’t verify whether people responded to your poll or just down ticked you, and with that sample size even if it was scientific the margin for error is 98%
            – see https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/margin-of-error-calculator/

            Reply
            • Oliver

               /  16th February 2016

              Well my poll sample size was 15 and had a 0% error of margin with 100% confidence.

            • I guess you upticked yourself too with 100% confidence.

              Online polls with responses in the thousands are just as meaningless but sadly media sites take them seriously.

            • Oliver

               /  16th February 2016

              How are online polls any different? Why would people react differently online?

            • In case you’re semi-serious see

              A voodoo poll (or pseudo-poll) is a pejorative description of an opinion poll with no statistical or scientific reliability, which is therefore not a good indicator of opinion on an issue. A voodoo poll will tend to involve self-selection, will be unrepresentative of the target population, and is often very easy to rig by those with a partisan interest in the results of the poll.

              And https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_access_poll

            • LOL. Credit where credit is due Oliver. I got a good laugh out of this comment. Not just funny, there’s a warped, twisted social comment in there too which I like, “o% error of margin”

            • That gave me more confidence he was just taking the piss.

            • @ PG – Oh he’s taking the piss all right. I’d say he’s the youngest member of the James Gang who’s recently acquired a six-shooter Smartphone and can’t help himself firing it off from the hip every chance he gets. A sort of 21C YourNZ ‘Billy the Kid’?

        • mrMan

           /  16th February 2016

          That’s a pretty pissy comment, leading by example Pete?

          Reply
          • No, it’s justified rubbishing of a rubbish poll.

            Are you supporting Oliver’s poll and it’s result?

            Reply
          • Actually you’re the one who’s being pissy here mrMan.

            Reply
            • mrMan

               /  16th February 2016

              Not in the context, you’ve told people to play nice, but you can’t be nice yourself.

              As for the poll, why not, it’s a small sample but it seems to show that the 15 people who read this blog are overwhelmingly in favour of keeping the flag we’ve got.
              Which did you click ? yes or no?

              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_flag_debate#Opinion_polling
              You know the polls have been against change forever.

            • Ok, so you’re taking the piss too. Good to know where you’re coming from.

            • The idea people are in here just to take the piss kinda interests me. Do we know how many people read this blog and don’t ever comment? If there is only say 15 people reading it I can’t see the point in just taking the piss, can anyone else? What’s the reward?

              mrMan, If your objective is to close YourNZ down, why bother if the blog’s readership is so small?

              Call me naive. I just don’t get it.

              I’ve taken part in other small website polls, e.g. to find the winner of a competition among members. You would need an unidentified author of the poll and designated YES – NO tick boxes to even begin to make it viable. Using Thumbs Up & Down for a poll identified with Holocaust denier Oliver is patently absurd.

              I’m gonna amuse myself and continue my Wild West analogy. If this was Dodge City, Ollie’s poll would be a diversion while the James Gang robbed the bank … again!

            • mrMan

               /  16th February 2016

              “mrMan, If your objective is to close YourNZ down, why bother if the blog’s readership is so small?”

              What are you talking about?. You guys are so fucken paranoid, and gullible.
              The readership isn’t 15, who knows what it is. Alexa ranks it around 1000th in new zealand.

            • @ mrMan – I’m not actually paranoid. I may be peculiar in that I don’t look at other blogs. Of the maybe 3 times I’ve looked at the Standard (I think it was) I found our very own PG there having a raging debate with someone for what seemed like hours.

              So perhaps he is to the Standard what you are perceived as being here by some of the hard-core ‘lifers’. (I jest, truly)
              Note the word “perceived”.

              I find your comments intelligent and I hope they are genuinely what you believe or that you are searching. I guess we don’t know that for sure about anyone’s comments?

              I may have to let go of my ‘Dodge City’ analogy? I get images like that and just run with them. I can’t help it. The image I have now is of two herds of Onyx or Bison or some such, living side by side on the prairie, and we the males of those herds are just constantly head-butting to establish our superiority. I genuinely do often think the head-butting takes precedence over the subject matter … but I may be wrong? I know it happens to me at times.

              Whatever we’re doing, are we forwarding or growing the lexicon of NZ politics? Improving it in any way?

              Who the fuck’s Alexa?

              Cheers and Goodnight.

        • Oliver

           /  16th February 2016

          Well what’s the minimum number of people you need to have a scientific poll?

          And how do you know people don’t give a false vote because they think it’s stupid on the polls you use?

          Reply
          • Credible polls usually have 500-1000 people randomly selected.

            But it’s not the number that makes them scientific, it’s the way in which the polls are carried out.

            Reply
        • @ PG – have you edited this? When it said “Your meaningless comment is useless without a link” I was going to copy and save it for regular use as a quick general response to almost anything Oliver posts. Darn! Have to write it out each time now.

          Reply
      • Oliver

         /  16th February 2016

        Edit 20% for

        80% against

        Reply
  2. jamie

     /  16th February 2016

    The most interesting aspect of the results is the ratio of “probably” to “definitely” for each side.

    Not only is there significantly more support for the NZ flag, but the support for change is significantly softer.

    Reply
    • @ Jamie @ PG says, “It may be that more people are warming to the new flag design but there’s still a big gap”

      There’s a big gap in credibility here too! The definites for change being 24% and “to keep” being 48%. Those who definitely want to retain the flag are double those who don’t!

      What do the 20% or 1-in-5 “probables” actually represent? The swing vote?

      What of the wording?
      You either vote “to keep the current flag” or “for the new flag design”?
      I know this is subtle and may be meaningless, but I think both questions should be couched in either positive or negative language.
      I vote for retaining the current flag, or simply “for the existing flag”.
      I vote for changing to the new flag or “for the new flag”
      Or words to that effect ….

      Reply
  3. Pantsdownbrown

     /  16th February 2016

    A pity they didn’t have the option: “I don’t want either flag” which is the position I now find myself in. The current flag is outdated with the Union Jack, the new flag is ruined by the fern on it not really looking like a fern, the image is far too crude in it’s implementation.

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  16th February 2016

      Well, you are going to get one of them so you will have to make up your mind like everyone else.

      Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  16th February 2016

      As for the fern, do you think the stars on the present one look like real stars? This is a symbol, not a photograph.

      Reply
      • Blazer

         /  16th February 2016

        you’re not very objective though Al….on here you’re always ‘seeing stars’.

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  16th February 2016

          Unfortunately not, Blazer. The occasional star is eclipsed by vast clouds of Lefty clods.

          Reply
    • Nelly Smickers

       /  16th February 2016

      Agree with you totally Pantsdown, the fern is ‘far too crude in it’s implementation’

      When I first saw it a shiver ran up my spine! It looked to moi like a row of gravestones heading off into the distance casting long shadows……dose anyone else see this ?

      😦

      Reply
      • @ Nelly – a smaller fern may have been possible had our Prime Ministerial FCP chosen a more complex rather than simple vexillological design. Instead they chose a relatively non-vexillological design. That is; a flag that defies some or all of the accepted basic tenants of flag design. http://www.crwflags.com/fotw/flags/xf-desi.html

        Some flags have ‘Coat-of-Arms’ or strong, complex symbols in their flags, Wales’ “Red Dragon” being a very good, well known example. It is unmistakeably a Dragon, even if you don’t initially know it’s Welsh.

        That’s the difference: unmistakeable.

        Reply
      • Mike C

         /  16th February 2016

        @Nelly

        I thought the Black and White Fern flag looked like a row of gravestones casting a shadow … which was because of the shape of the leaves on the fern … but I have never felt that way about the fern on the Black and Blue flag 🙂

        Reply
      • Nelly Smickers

         /  16th February 2016

        I recall the headline in the Sydney Morning Herald last year, “New Zealand has 40 ideas for a new flag – and they’re all awful”

        There’s no doubt a committee has always been a sure way to a compromise solution that pleases nobody. As the old saying goes, a camel is a hose designed by a committee. A lot of people predicted just such an outcome.

        I hope that Godawful marble orchard thing never flys 😦

        Reply
        • Nelly Smickers

           /  16th February 2016

          whoopsie – should be ‘horse’

          Reply
          • @ Nelly – I’ve never heard that saying and I have a theory why? Its a fr@king stupid, useless saying! If a committee set out to design a horse capable of crossing a vast expanse of desert with a enormous load on its back they might very well come up with a camel …?

            The Sydney Herald headline might have read, “New Zealand has 40 ideas for a new flag, 20 of them the same and every one awful”?

            Reply
      • Nelly Smickers

         /  17th February 2016

        Well, well…….I’ve just had it draw to my attention, that even those on the hard-left of the political divide have also realised the proposed new flag design looks like a row of Gravestones!

        http://thestandard.org.nz/

        I wonder if they’ve been reading my posts here?

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  17th February 2016

          It would be more of a worry if they said it looked like a weeping willow, Nelly.

          Reply
        • Mike C

           /  17th February 2016

          @Nelly

          Yeap … everyone at the Standard hangs on every word you write in here. LOL 🙂

          Reply
          • Nelly Smickers

             /  17th February 2016

            How come I get the distinct feeling your both taking the piss? 🙂

            Reply
            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  17th February 2016

              You mean that sagging feeling, Nelly? Maybe it’s time Wayne took you in hand.

    • Oliver

       /  17th February 2016

      “Support for changing the flag is definitely increasing, while support for the existing one is softening,” Mr Holden said.

      “Support for the new flag has increased from 25% last September to 36% this month. Meanwhile, support for the old flag has dropped from 69% to 56%”

      So you mean this is just PR spin. I feel like I’ve been lied to.

      Reply
      • @ Oliver – I hear you saying you feel lied to. When did this feeling begin? With National’s election mandate? Their announcement of their idea of a democratic process? The Prime Ministerial appointment of the FCP? Long list of 40? Short list of 4, then 5?

        Was it the “graffiti on the flagpole” thing we talked about before?

        In our therapy it helps to pinpoint these things.

        And you feel it may be just PR spin? No, let me assure you, before you have an anxiety attack, the government is conducting a entirely unbiased democratic process asking the NZ public if they want a specific alternative flag design to replace the existing flag.

        They’re not conducting a campaign to change the flag Oliver. Oh, no, no. Why would you think that? Are you suspicious of the National government Oliver? Be honest now …?

        We can deal with your suspicion issues separately next week. For today, remember the source of this information that’s upset you. The “Crisis Meeting” story comes from the Left Wing dominated Cultural Marxist Feminist Socialist MSM Oliver. It is not to be believed.

        Feel better …?

        Reply
      • Oliver

         /  17th February 2016

        I’ll feel better when John Key goes down with his stupid flag idea.

        Reply
        • We must endeavour to have realistic expectations Oliver, remember?

          It seems very likely the flag idea will “go down” in about a month’s time.

          You may have to wait a lot longer for John Key’s downfall.

          You might consider whether you want these feelings of yours to overshadow the rest of your school days and possibly university as well?

          (Hey, I’m just kidding ya eh!)

          Reply
        • Oliver

           /  17th February 2016

          No one’s going to forget a 26 million dollar blunder.

          Reply

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