Breakfast flag poll

Seven days until voting in the flag referendum.

Breakfast has been running an online poll since yesterday morning.

FlagPollBreakfast

 

Self selecting online polls are non-scientific and should be looked on with a fair degree of scepticism as they are easily manipulated and easily affected by special interests.

But with the number of votes now over 30,000 it gets harder to manipulate significantly, unless you can organise a huge number of helpers. So this poll may be a reasonable albeit rough indicator of current preferences.

I think it’s surprising how close this is, based on past polls. Newshub/Reid Research polling from about a month ago had a different of 61 to 30.

The Breakfast poll was closer early last night with about 20,000 votes but has widened a little.

And 55 to 45 is still a big gap to close up if there is to be any flag change.

But it’s not over until the referendum is counted. There may be late swings (either way), and a lot may depend on voter turnout and who is most motivated to vote.

I still think it’s unlikely the flag will change – this year or probably in my lifetime – but it could get close and interesting.

If the first referendum was ‘Do you want to change the New Zealand flag?’ would the outcome have been any different?

It’s possible more people would have voted for change without knowing what the alternative would have been.

If that had happened it’s probably the fight over the alternative design would have been even more fraught and bitter as the end result would be the new flag, as change would have already been decided.

The only certainty is that there would have been wide and often strong disagreement on what the new design should be.

There will never be a Goldilocks flag that everyone thinks is just right.

And I think those who prefer to keep the current flag even though they want change, hoping that they will get to choose again soon, are fooling themselves.

If the flag doesn’t change this time then I think National are very unlikely to offer us the choice again.

Labour and Greens are unlikely to try flag change soon after strongly fighting against this process, as that would highlight their political hypocrisy.

And I think flag change needs some hefty weight of opinion from the centre right on it’s side to succeed. We have that this time, but Labour in particular has done it’s best to dirty the left wing vote for change.

I’ll still be voting for change, because i think the Lockwood design is good enough and far better than the present flag.

Because it’s something I strongly believe in I’ll be promoting flag change over the next few weeks.

If anyone wants to do a guest post on their preference or on any aspect of the flag referendum then I’ll be happy to put it up here too (as long as it’s reasonable).

The Lockwood flag in Paris recently:

LockwoodParis2

If you post links to your favourite flag images (New Zealand and Lockwood) in comments I’ll collate into posts.

Leave a comment

44 Comments

  1. Missy

     /  25th February 2016

    Pete, something that doesn’t seem to have been taken into account is that there is a large overseas vote to take into account, how that will swing the vote could be interesting. I know that many kiwi’s overseas aren’t eligible to vote, but there are a lot that are, and going on the interest I have seen on it in Beijing I think it is one vote that many ex-pat kiwis want to take part in.

    “I’ll still be voting for change, because i think the Lockwood design is good enough…”

    Good enough? Surely the flag for our country should be better than ‘good enough’, it should be right, and something you love. That is one of the problems with this design, a lot of people don’t love it, but will vote for it because they want change, so what happens in 5 years when everyone starts to realise that the flag is looking outdated, and tacky? Good enough, is not good enough, and voting for change for the sake of change is not good enough. At least not in my opinion.

    You may think that some of those who want no change are old fuddy duddies, or wrong, or stuck in their ways, but at least most of them are passionate about the flag, and keeping it, I have not heard one person voting for change say they are doing it because they love the Lockwood flag or are passionate about it, most are voting because they think it is time to change. That is a recipe for disaster if it was to win and we ended up with a flag that in 5 years starts to be considered tacky, or isn’t recognised as NZ’s flag, or is constantly being explained it is a fern not white feather, and that the population grow to hate because no-one loved it passionately. Not even the PM loves it, he has changed his mind several times on what flag he wants.

    Reply
    • “Good enough? Surely the flag for our country should be better than ‘good enough’”

      I’d rather have ‘good enough’ than ‘outdated and indistinct’.

      I’d be proud to fly the Lockwood, and have never felt that way about our current flag.

      Reply
      • Missy

         /  25th February 2016

        Fair enough, I guess each to their own. Personally I would be embarrassed to fly the Lockwood flag, it looks tacky, and I would get sick of explaining it isn’t a big white feather on it – many people internationally don’t know the fern, or what it is (as I think I have said before), I am very proud to fly our current flag, and I feel a sense of pride when I see it flying from NZ House here in London – I will admit to feeling embarrassed by the building, it is rather ugly, only the view from the top makes up for that! I also wouldn’t want a flag that was just good enough. I obviously expect too much in it all, and if ‘good enough’ is what the majority of the country wants I will have to resign to being perpetually embarrassed by my flag, and foreigners thinking we are cowards with a white feather on our flag.

        Reply
      • mrMan

         /  25th February 2016

        If “good enough” is chosen we will never have another chance to change it to “Excellent”. If we go with the status quo, there is a good chance that a great design and the political will will come together in the future.
        Choosing that abomination is not an option. Thank god it’s not polling like national.

        Reply
        • If “good enough” is chosen we will never have another chance to change it to “Excellent”.

          There’s no way of knowing if we would get another chance or not. The next Government could do something about changing it.

          And there’s no guarantee of coming up with something that is “Excellent”for the majority of people. I suspect that’s an unattainable dream for some.

          Reply
          • mrMan

             /  25th February 2016

            Personally I think the lockwood design is an unobtainable dream for some, and the polls seem to agree.

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  25th February 2016

              Hopefully it never becomes an obtainable nightmare. It’s a plastic party plate brand logo. Not a national flag. The Canadians got both their process and their design right. Google it & compare it to all other country flags. Then have another look at the Lockwood logo.

              We got a panel of amateurs organising a free for all which garnered 10,286 designs, out of which these tosspots selected 4 brand logos, 3 of which were exactly the same design and reflected what John Key said he’d like, and the other, hypnoflag, was a misguided sop to Maori which simply offended them. Then they added Red Peak, another company logo for two actual companies.

              In every possible way, as our country’s proposed alternative flag, the Lockwood logo is just shite.

        • Missy

           /  25th February 2016

          “If “good enough” is chosen we will never have another chance to change it to “Excellent”.

          Mr Man, I have to say I have found very little of what you write to agree with – but this I do!

          Whilst I am in favour of keeping the flag, I am disappointed in the process, and the options, and that many only see the alternative as ‘good enough’. If we had an ‘excellent’ option, (along with better arguments than it looks too much like Australia’s), I could be persuaded to vote for change.

          Reply
    • Interesting point on the overseas vote. I wonder how many will bother to vote, is it more of a hassle when overseas?

      And how many overseas voters are sentimental about the current flag versus fern fans? I have no idea.

      Reply
      • Missy

         /  25th February 2016

        I can only comment on many I know in Beijing, and the one’s I work with here in London. I know that for the first referendum there was a lot of interest from Kiwi’s in Beijing, and on wechat there were reminders for people to vote – how they voted I don’t know, but many seemed to be quite in favour of the current flag. As for the one’s I work with in London, only today we got the advice on how to vote, and just about all the Kiwi’s in my office (about 10 out of 12 workers) are voting to keep the flag.

        It is pretty easy as the papers can be scanned and uploaded to the website, so not too much of a hassle for overseas voters.

        Reply
      • mrMan

         /  25th February 2016

        Don’t overseas votes count as ‘special votes’? I doubt this will be close enough for the specials to effect the outcome, they almost never do.

        Reply
        • Missy

           /  25th February 2016

          They do count as special votes, and you could be right that it isn’t close enough for the specials to affect the outcome. It will, I suspect, depend on how right the polls are and how close the vote in NZ is, and how many overseas people vote. There are a lot that qualify – as a citizen you have to have visited NZ in the last 3 years, so there may be a lot more than I originally thought that qualify to vote. It will also be dependent on how many are motivated to vote, I know many in the Kiwi community in Beijing are, I am not so sure about the larger areas of Kiwi populations such as the UK and Australia. It could be a small proportion and not a big impact, or it could be a large percentage with a significant impact.

          Reply
          • mrMan

             /  25th February 2016

            “as a citizen you have to have visited NZ in the last 3 years”

            So that’s everyone who’s got a student loan out of contention then, can’t be too many left after that.

            Reply
  2. Missy

     /  25th February 2016

    Oh, and I have a question for all the pro-change folks – what is the Navy Ensign going to look like? Has anyone thought of that? It will be awful I would imagine, and imagine our Navy ships sailing with something that looks like a big white feather on the stern!

    I have some great pictures of our flag, but they are in my personal collections, so I don’t wish to share, but the best sight I have of the flag is every morning when I look out my window at work and see the flag flying.

    Reply
  3. Brown

     /  25th February 2016

    I am sooo sick of this waste of money for something a majority don’t want anyway. The flag should change when there is a fundamental shift in NZ’s position politically – like becoming a republic. You don’t change flags because its nice or something equally vacuous or because John Key had an idea one day when pondering how to distract attention is hardly good enough reason.

    Irrespective of that I think its a crap design with the elements clashing rather than being harmonious. It looks cheap, sloganish, a committee design rather than inspired. A flag is more than just something to wave when the Australians have thrashed you at cricket again.

    I think it will change because people will be fed up and just want the shambles to be over, the propaganda to cease and the supposed rich and famous to piss off and keep their opinions to themselves. I cannot remember being this disappointed in my nation since Helen Clarke was popular.

    Reply
  4. Oliver

     /  25th February 2016

    As everyone here knows I now support the changing of the flag. To be honest I’ve liked the Lockwood design right from the start but when John Key made it all about him it really put me off.

    But Ive decided to put my disapproval of John Key to one side and look at the benefits of changing it to a flag that is unique and better represents our nation’s identity.

    Reply
  5. The poll is from those who watch morning tv so that immediately puts it into the realms of being questionable as for actually meaning anything significant.

    The chances of there not being a change are lessening regardless of what questionable polls say.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  25th February 2016

      Gaaah, don’t even think it, please. I don’t think I could stand the embarrassment of having the Lockwood Logo flown internationally as our country’s flag. We’d be an international laughing stock.

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  25th February 2016

        Utterly absurd. There are lots of ways to become an international laughing stock but changing to the flag proposed is not one of them. Publishing opinions like yours probably is though.

        Reply
  6. Pythagoras

     /  25th February 2016

    The proposed new flag is an abomination. Just slap a sports logo, oops I mean silver fern, over the Union Jack and bingo, Bob’s your uncle. That’s D- for inspiration, at best.

    I don’t buy the line of reasoning “well, it might be a little better than what we have”. To go through the long and complicated process of changing the flag, the only acceptable outcome would be to come up with a flag that is really fantastic. The proposed new flag is not that. At worst, it is a lost opportunity to design a really great flag. At the end of the day it is just a vanity project for the “I think it should have a silver fern on it” PM.

    Much of the process has been badly handled by the PM and government. The exception, of course, is the recent slick advertising campaign featuring Richie and Dan and co to persuade the undecided.

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  25th February 2016

      People will never, ever agree on what is a truly great flag. Get used to reality, it is all around you.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  25th February 2016

        That’s true. But the Lockwood Logo certainly isn’t a great flag. Out of a flood of 10,286 designs, those utter dimwits picked 3 with the same bloody design. That all looked exactly like what Key said he wanted? And they all look like brand logos. A new flag would’ve been great. But not this one. The whole process has been a farce.

        Reply
        • @ Gezza – Black & White Fern doesn’t just “look like” a brand logo, IT IS a brand logo! Not just once either, but several times over. See AirNZ, NZ Tourism … and I’ve seen at least one more in the last few days but I can’t remember or find it right now.

          I agree a new flag would have been great, along with the proper identity and constitution discussions which would have engendered the best possible design.

          I can’t help thinking the FCP dimwits did as they were bid?

          Reply
          • Oliver

             /  25th February 2016

            All flags are logos.

            Reply
            • You’re wrong Oliver, it is that simple. The accepted popular meaning of logo is “A symbol or design that identifies a brand” – freedictionary.com

              Flag or Standard, Pennant or Ensign has much greater significance and meaning, hence ‘gravitas’ – paraphrased from Oxford/Yahoo

              In ancient times one major objective in battle was to reach and deteat the Standard Bearer, hence lowering the Flag of your enemy. But I guess you’d know that since you’ve been in the military?

              And there’s so much more …. google it maybe …?

              It’s like talking to a different person now Oliver. Leopards can change their spots, it seems, leastwise on blogs. What disguise are you wearing today? Which personality is to the fore? Have I missed any big announcements?

            • Bugger … “defeat” …

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  25th February 2016

              Oh tosh, PZ. Is the rising sun a logo, the hammer and sickle, the maple leaf, the rarotongan coral reef? And that’s just a bunch,off the top of my head. You antis are so full of b.s. it beggars belief.

            • Gezza

               /  25th February 2016

              The Rising Sun – a red circle on a white background – couldn’t be a better example of a simple, stunning and instantly recognisable national flag. Same with the design of the Canadian flag. Two colours. both clean, easy to draw simple designs. Soviet Union flag – simple design, red plus yellow hammer and sickle, another easy to draw, simple design.

              Rarotongan flag, Union Jack 1st qr canton and circle of stars on blue background. Simple design, good proportions using common star inconography. Maybe they could dump the Union Jack sometime and just have the stars on blue.

              These are all good country flag designs Alan. Can you honestly not see the difference between these and the Lockwood Horror?

              There are a few country flags that aren’t so great. But so few they stand out. Let’s not be one of them.
              http://www.photius.com/flags/alphabetic_list.html

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  25th February 2016

              The maple leaf is far from easy to draw and there are heaps of others that are difficult. You are buried in the past before digitised images and reproduction were available and when armies marched around waving flags instead of hiding in bunkers.

              Dig yourself out, join the modern world, and rejoice in the vast opportunities technology now offers. Just as most corporates long ago did and for the same reasons.

              Or you can be Colonel Blimp, huffing and puffing that the cavalry have been retired.

            • Gezza

               /  26th February 2016

              Don’t be daft. I don’t like the current flag either. Just don’t believe in changing it for a brand logo. WTF is the black about too? The bloody All Blacks. Judas Priest. I see the Breakfast flag poll is 58-42 against the Lockwood Horror at 12.16 pm today.

            • Gezza

               /  25th February 2016

              You’re exactly right PZ.

              The LockwoodLogo is a triangular strip from an All Black Shirt with the fern turned into a vague white amorphous pinnate leaf of some unrecognisable plant, stuck it onto the existing fkn flag.

              FFS, If people want to go with this thing, why don’t we just fly a bloody All Black jersey? I get the feeling some of those who say they’ll vote for Lockwood’s folly probably would’ve voted for the AB jersey if they’d been given that option.

            • @ Gezza – You’ve said it all for me above in response to Alan. The Maple Leaf was the national symbol chosen by a sample poll of Canadian people at the same time they were asked if they wanted a new flag. You might say they got it right from the start?

              It’s a truly excellent flag, which undoubtedly has since been used in various guises as a logo, but, like the Rising Sun and many others, its gravitas as a national motif came first.

              It was contentious at the time over there too, especially with their Returned Services, being only 20 years after WW2, and for many years Vets continued to fly the old Union Jack Canadian Flag.

              I’m with Missy, yourself and others on this. I don’t think Lockwood is going to grow on us like the Maple Leaf did for Canadians. As I said the other night, the Lockwood has the look of a throw-away, hand-held promo gift given out for fans to wave at a sports game.

              Tehehehe … Alan on Oliver’s side is a bit of a chuckle as well! He normally disagrees even more auto-vehemently (new word perhaps?) with Oliver than he does with me. Loves that “tosh” too. Logos and logo I guess?

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  25th February 2016

              I’m treating Oliver’s support as an aberration, PZ, as I said. Since most of his opinions seem to be plucked at random I suppose there is a good chance occasionally one will be sensible.

            • @ Alan – I think Oliver has taken to using a random subject and bias generator to kick-start his brain or to determine his stance per topic and sometimes even per individual comment! We’ve seen random occupations too.

              They’re probably apps on his phone?

              That’s why when he asked about a change of career I suggested he go into gambling. Better to own the ‘one arm bandits’ than play them?

  7. Alan Wilkinson

     /  25th February 2016

    Not sure that a 5% swing is beyond possible. A lot will depend on who votes and who doesn’t.

    Reply
  8. Interesting full page advertisement from the FCP on the back page of the Northern News today, “Our Nation. Your Choice”. No doubt coming to a newspaper near you in the next little while.

    I could probably make a case for Left-Right-Brain bias since the page is divided in half with Silver Fern Flag left and Current Flag right … but Baaa Humbug!!! It’s in the hands of the voters now and it had to be presented somehow.

    Bottom half of the page each side has selected opinions shared by NZ’ers during the process. One “speech box” on Fern’s side about remaining in the Commonwealth uses an image of the Canadian Flag, which I suppose either aligns Lockwood with it or gives readers the opportunity to compare the best with the grossly inadequate …?

    Reply
    • Rob

       /  25th February 2016

      Wonder who’s paying for that. An example of Key using other peoples money to push his choice?

      Reply
      • @ Rob – This will be part of the $26 million. It’s official FCP. ‘Flag Change Presumption’. The final encouragement to “stay in” and vote!

        So yes, it’s Key using other peoples money to push his personal preference, absolutely.

        A sketch for KG and all those freaking out about political correctness.
        This is 24 years old!

        Reply

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