Clinton and Trump in box seats

Super Tuesday has put Hillary Clinton in particular well in front in the Democrat race with Sanders needing a fairly significant turnaround to realistically stay in reckoning.

The Republican side of things is more muddled, but it looks like it’s Donald Trump’s to lose, and he seems to have no intention of doing that.

Trump is dominating but still hasn’t established a decisive lead. And it’s not certain he can  take a winning lead into the deciding convention and the GOP could still try and roll him then.

Marco Rubio is struggling to make a competitive impression. He looks like winning his first state but overall his results have been and remain disappointing for anyone supporting him.

Ted Cruz won another two states and came second in most of the others and on that basis must be seen as the main competitor to Trump.

A very good summary of what the results mean for all the contenders – Winners and losers from Super Tuesday

On Trump:

But wins in eight or nine out of 11 voting states, which is what looks like Trump’s haul will be after Super Tuesday, is pretty good. The two most probable paths for the race at this point are

1) A Trump delegate win or

2) A near-Trump win with the possibility of an open convention where the party establishment tries to take it from him. I like Trump’s odds.

On Clinton:

Clinton has a death grip on the Democratic nomination. The only question is how and when she and her team negotiate a peace with Sanders. And she knows it. Her victory speech Tuesday night in Florida was aimed directly at Trump — talking about why America is and always has been great and why we need  to break down, not build up, walls. Expect lots more of that.

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14 Comments

  1. kittycatkin

     /  2nd March 2016

    The thought of him as president is too awful to contemplate; I think that he’d be very divisive.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  2nd March 2016

      I tend to think the same thing plus he could be a loose cannon – it’s hard to know what to take seriously from the stuff he spouts. But Hillary’s a pretty murky sort of character as well when you dig in to her background, and she’s likely to be divisive too.

      Reply
    • John Schmidt

       /  2nd March 2016

      It’s lose lose. Regardless of the result it will be divisive for the Republicans.

      Reply
    • Timoti

       /  2nd March 2016

      He’s what’s needed to deal with Muslims, liberal enclaves in government and bureaucracy, weak or incorrect foreign policy. And Russia along with China.

      More of the treasonis weak leadership shown by Obama which no doubt would be continued by any newly elected Conservative or Democrat president apart from Trump is unacceptable. And that’s what scares the fur off your back, Kittycat- you know Trump means business. You have become too complacent with the status quo. Likewise liberals who slang off the Hard Rights so called loony polices knowing full well in the real world they would never be tried.Trump changes that- hard right policies will be put to the test and compared with PC policies. Guess which policies will deliver 80% of the time?

      Don’t forget, Kitty. A weak America is a weak west. And a weaker New Zealand. We want China, Russia and Indonesia to fear the consequences of disrespecting us. Instead they are starting to piss on us.

      Don’t you worry none though. Make yourself a hot toddy. Then go to bed. Pull the blankets over your head and dream the dream of babes while Trumpy makes America( and the west) great again.

      Reply
      • Robby

         /  3rd March 2016

        What a nice little wet dream Timmy. Our kids would be far better off learning to speak Mandarin fluently, in order to speak fluently with the nearest, and most useful export/import nation, China

        Reply
        • Timoti

           /  3rd March 2016

          Typical Roundeye analysis, with a dash of dribbly liberalism. Kids aren’t the only ones who need schooling. May I suggest the following course: ” Know the Asian mindset,if you can.” Said course will have a life time duration.

          See Bobby ,Asians know exactly how we think. But only a few gifted westerners will ever understand ( or care) how the Asian mindset works in its more subtle aspects.

          Reply
  2. Iceberg

     /  2nd March 2016

    It seems odd how bitter old white men like Corbyn and Sanders, the supposed enemies of progressives for decades, have been held up as their saviours by so many.

    Reply
  3. Alan Wilkinson

     /  2nd March 2016

    It will be interesting to see if Trump changes tactics at all now that much of the South is in the bag.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  2nd March 2016

      He doesn’t really need to. I think what you see and hear is what you get and it’s working for him.

      Reply
    • Nelly Smickers

       /  2nd March 2016

      Here’s John Oliver’s latest take on Trumpie…..20 minutes well spent 😀

      Would.be interesting if they did something similar on Palino……

      Reply
  4. I’m actually very encouraged by the results on both sides, even though it may appear that Trump and Clinton dominated.

    Both Clinton and Trump are clearly dominant in the South. However, those (in Trump’s case at least) are not winner take all States. Most of the States in play in the rest of the primaries will be, and they are in places where both candidates have been shown vulnerable.

    It’s interesting that outside of his Northeastern home and the Southern States, Trump has lost (and in three other cases his win was narrow). Arkansas is the most westerly State he has won (and that not by much). This may continue to be a problem for him, and I have a theory about this: While Trump can play the part of a Good Ol’ Boy, he’s not much of a Cowboy. The Cowboy role in this election clearly goes to Cruz, who has now won four “cowboy” States (Iowa, Texas, Oklahoma, and Alaska). I think Cruz is primed to take many more of these States, possibly enough to deny Trump that magic number of 1237 delegates, or even gather the momentum to win himself. I’d at least give him a good 25% chance of doing that.

    Likewise, when Clinton has to compete in States without high numbers of African Americans, she loses the white liberals who make up the rest of the Democratic Party base. It ain’t over on that side by a long shot either.

    Anyone who thinks this is sewn up would be very foolish.

    Reply
  5. Also note that despite winning 7 out of 11 states, the whole thing only put Trump 40 delegates more up on Cruz. That’s not a lot given the winner take all states that are coming after another two weeks.

    Reply
  6. Alan Wilkinson

     /  3rd March 2016

    As I suspected, Trump will change tactics now and is already doing so:
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/donald-trump-super-tuesday-victory-speech-full-watch-video-a6906941.html

    Too many people underestimate this man.

    Reply
    • Mike C

       /  3rd March 2016

      @AlanW

      Yes you said that yesterday 🙂

      I have never under estimated Trump … and I think there is a very good chance he will make it to the White House.

      He is a highly intelligent person … with incredible money making skills … who can read people and situations extremely well.

      Reply

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