Super Tuesday in the US

It’s still yesterday in the US, and one of the most important days in the presidential primaries.

In the United States, Super Tuesday, in general, refers informally to one or more Tuesdays early in a United States presidential primary season when the greatest number of states hold primary elections.  In 2016, Super Tuesday is on March 1.

More delegates to United States presidential nominating conventions can be won on Super Tuesday than on any other single day of the primary calendar. Candidates seeking the presidency traditionally must do well on this day to secure their party’s nomination.

Since Super Tuesday primaries are typically held in a large number of states from geographically and socially diverse regions of the country, Super Tuesday typically represents a presidential candidate’s first test of national electability. Convincing wins in Super Tuesday primaries have usually propelled candidates to their party’s nomination.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Tuesday

New Zealand Time the results will come in this afternoon and this evening.

According to FiveThirtyEight predictions Clinton is likely to strengthen her position substantially over Bernie Sanders.

Super Guide to Super Tuesday – Democrats

Polling average:

  • Clinton 69.5%
  • Sanders 24.5%

Donald Trump is leading in 10 of eleven states so could also get a strong grip on the Republican primary.

Super Guide to Super Tuesday – Republicans

Polling Average:

  • Trump 39.4%
  • Rubio 19.6%
  • Cruz 15.1%
  • Carson 9.9%
  • Kasich 5.5%

The real crunch will be when it’s down to Trump versus the survivor of the rest.

Cruz looks too fundie right to appeal to a lot of people.

Rubio has resorted to cringe campaigning to try and out-trump Trump, which could  backfire on him.

Both Cruz and Rubio are reported to have raised over $300 million for their campaigns. That’s nuts. Just imagine how many flags you could change with that sort of money.

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9 Comments

  1. alloytoo

     /  2nd March 2016

    Trump needs about 11% to reach an unassailable 50%

    Rubio needs twice that (20%), just to match Trump and three times that to reach (30%)

    Assuming Carlson, Kasich and Cruz drop out after Super Tuesday and their votes are up for grabs (and assuming the 10% undecided remain undecided) then Trump only needs 15% of Carlson, Kasich and Cruz’s support (6% total) to beat Rubio, while Rubio needs a whopping 85% of Carlson, Kasich and Cruz’s support to beat Trump.

    Given that the Don’s batting 39% and Rubio’s batting 20% that would be a considerable turnaround for both men.

    Even if the undecided decide, they would have to go way against Trend and momentum to get Rubio across the line.

    And who’s going to tell Cruz to quit?

    Reply
  2. Clemgeopin

     /  2nd March 2016

    I found the following poll very interesting: Notice the head to head between Dems Vs Rep
    —————–
    Democratic Presidential Nomination, Rasmussen poll, Clinton 53, Sanders 31 Clinton +22
    ———————-
    General Election: Trump vs. Clinton CNN/ORC, Clinton 52, Trump 44 , Clinton +8

    General Election: Trump vs. Sanders CNN/ORC , Sanders 55, Trump 43 , Sanders +12

    General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton CNN/ORC Cruz 49, Clinton 48, Cruz +1

    General Election: Cruz vs. Sanders CNN/ORC Sanders 57, Cruz 40, Sanders +17

    General Election: Rubio vs. Clinton CNN/ORC Rubio 50, Clinton 47 Rubio +3

    General Election: Rubio vs. Sanders CNN/ORC , Sanders 53, Rubio 45, Sanders +8

    Reply
  3. kiwi guy

     /  2nd March 2016

    Trump’s success explained in one chart:

    Reply
  4. Alan Wilkinson

     /  2nd March 2016

    Early returns:
    Clinton wins Georgia and Virginia, Sanders wins Vermont.
    Trump wins Georgia.

    Reply
  5. kiwi guy

     /  2nd March 2016

    Looks like Vermont is going to Kasich and in Virginia its a close call.

    The Republican Establishment hopes Trump won’t get the required 1200 or so delegates, then they can brokerage their Not Trump choice at their July convention.

    Reply
  6. Alan Wilkinson

     /  2nd March 2016

    Seems Clinton is winning comprehensively and Trump winning but not so comprehensively.

    Reply
  7. Gezza

     /  2nd March 2016

    The Washington Post Results page looks easy to follow:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/2016-election-results/super-tuesday/

    Reply

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