Flag referendum prediction

This is a good time to make predictions about the outcome of the flag referendum.

After just over a week (1 week and 1 day) of voting 1,406,870 papers have been returned. With two and a half weeks to go that’s a healthy looking return.

The total votes received in the first referendum were 1,546,734.

What does a high turnout mean? Traditionalists turning out in force? A movement towards change?

My wishful thinking: change 51%, no change 49%

My prediction: no change 56.5%, change 43.5%

What do you think? Bragging rights to the closest prediction.

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NZH file photo

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37 Comments

  1. Alan Wilkinson

     /  16th March 2016

    65:35 no change unfortunately.

    Reply
  2. Nelly Smickers

     /  16th March 2016

    My prediction: big majority vote for NO change

    Reply
    • Come on Nelly, give it a number 😉

      Reply
      • Nelly Smickers

         /  16th March 2016

        OK then:

        67.4% People in favor of retaining the current NZ flag.
        32.2% People who wouldn’t no if their arse was on fire.
        0.4% Hindi votes disallowed.

        Reply
  3. Clemgeopin

     /  16th March 2016

    No change 60%,
    Change 40%

    Reply
  4. jamie

     /  16th March 2016

    Your wishful thinking is a bit concerning.

    My wish is that whatever the result, it is a convincing one.

    51% either way would just spell ongoing trouble.

    Reply
    • That’s about the best I can hope for, a close win for change. Sure some would grizzle about that but it at least looks like it will be a decent turnout so the democratic decision should be a valid choice.

      I won’t be complaining if there’s a close loss for change.

      Reply
      • jamie

         /  16th March 2016

        Well I favour retaining the NZ flag, but I would rather it lose by 20% than win by 2.

        That’s what I think would be better for the ongoing well-being of our country.

        Reply
  5. David

     /  16th March 2016

    52/48 in favour of the status quo.

    Reply
  6. I don’t think the new flag will get above 40. So it’s 62/38

    What does a high turnout mean? Traditionalists turning out in force? A movement towards change?

    It means that people are somewhat passionate about the topic. Which in itself is a good thing.

    Reply
  7. Kevin

     /  16th March 2016

    72 / 28 in favour of no change.

    Reply
  8. Brown

     /  16th March 2016

    Don’t care anymore beyond wishing they hadn’t wasted $26 million. The country is run by egotistical idiots and troughers.

    Reply
    • Patzcuaro

       /  16th March 2016

      Looks like the Marriage Equality Referendum in Australia is going to cost about $220m ($155m for the referendum plus $65m for education on both sides). If you want participation in our democracy it going to cost money or you just leave it to parliament to decide.

      Reply
    • Kitty Catkin

       /  16th March 2016

      Brown obviously doesn’t know any politicians.

      Reply
      • Oh, all right Miss Kitty, “hard working” egotistical idiots and troughers! 😀

        Reply
      • Brown

         /  16th March 2016

        Correct Kitty (and lose no sleep at all over that) but I didn’t use the word politician so you just made that bit up. I got close to Chippie once but could see he was confused so managed to avoid him when he failed to comply with the new give way rules. Sometimes sign writing your car shows you up.

        Reply
  9. 60-40 no change, happy to share prize with Clemgeopin ☺

    Reply
  10. Pythagoras

     /  16th March 2016

    Prediction 1: 63-37 in favor of no change.

    Prediction 2: Labour will fail to capitalize on the government’s debacled (if that’s a word) attempt change the flag. Labour will continue to fail to hold the government to account and National will win the next election by default.

    Reply
  11. kiwi dave

     /  16th March 2016

    Here’s a realistic prediction: 100% of the above will be wrong; some will be 80% wrong, the rest will be 20% wrong . Lies, damned lies and statistics – we can make them up all day long

    Reply
  12. Gezza

     /  16th March 2016

    Lockwood Horror: 46%
    Current Flag: 48 %
    School C Maths 15%

    Reply
  13. Zedd

     /  16th March 2016

    100% that Key will look like a ‘dick-head’ if/when it fails !

    Reply
    • Colonial Relic 57.8%, Lockwood Horror 42.2% of valid votes.
      Better than expected vote for change due to ‘Celebrity’ advertising campaign.
      100% sad situation …

      Reply
  14. Zedd

     /  16th March 2016

    This whole issue, has changed my perspective VERY SLIGHTLY.
    I used to believe everything Key said.. all the ‘brave little Keyites’ followed without question (I promise not use any german words again) BUT I see that some appear to, actually think independantly.. (shock) ?? :/

    Reply
  15. Oliver

     /  16th March 2016

    My prediction

    78 – 22 for no flag change.
    78 – 22 for PM change.
    78 – 22 for Labour next election.

    Reply
  16. Oliver

     /  16th March 2016

    Let’s admit that this isn’t about the flag anymore. It’s pretty obvious we are keeping the current. This is now about showing John Key how much of an idiot we think he is. Let your voice be heard.

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  16th March 2016

      Key Derangement Syndrome

      Reply
      • Yes Alan, no doubt about it, a clear case of KDS this time. Oliver should be quarantined so it doesn’t spread …

        Reply
        • Dougal

           /  16th March 2016

          I think it’s too late for that PZ. Thanks to Hone Harawera, Kim Dotcom, Laila Harre, David Cunliffe and Pam Corkery that disease has spread far and wide but surprisingly he IS still the most popular choice for Prime Minister by far 🙂

          Reply
          • @ Dougal – It’s amazing what happens when one’s choices are profoundly limited! 😉 Also, the incidence of KDS is no greater than that of KRAS, Key Adoration and Reverence Syndrome. 😀

            Reply
            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  16th March 2016

              The symptoms are quite different though. One makes its sufferers miserable, bitter and twisted spewing bile at everything the Government does. The other has no visible symptoms other than a slightly ironic smile.

  17. Paul

     /  16th March 2016

    The result will be change 53%, no change 47%.Thankfully the flag will change and the majority will get what they want. Of course it will all be John Keys fault !!!

    Reply
    • Oh Paul, that just makes it worse, if such a thing is possible!? You’re now describing a lose/lose, lose/lose, lose/lose, lose and lose situation, where even Key loses if he wins!!!

      Reply
      • Paul

         /  16th March 2016

        Whatever the outcome I’m so so grateful I don’t live in your world!

        Reply
  18. 65% No Change (Existing flag)
    30% Change (Lockwood)
    5% Invalids (Protest votes and whatnot)

    30% of people wanting change is still a good result for JK and the Flag Change people. The conversation has begun albeit at a price of $26m. Possibly the start of the talk about where to from here for NZ wrt ToW, written constitution and so forth.

    Reply
  19. 44.3% – 55.7% no change.

    Reply
  20. Ratty

     /  16th March 2016

    70-30 No change

    Reply
  21. Robby

     /  16th March 2016

    My prediction is:
    56% to keep the current flag
    39% for the lockwood
    5% invalid/spoilt

    Reply

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