The looming Trump disaster…

Predictions of a Trump disaster were defied by polls and primary results for some time but there’s increasing indications that the wheels may fall off Trumpmobile.

Locally pollster David Farrar has been pointing to some worrying numbers for Trump supporters for a while. And yesterday he posted Best analysis of Trump’s women problem:

From 538:

micah: So Trump does really poorly with women — it hasn’t stopped him in the Republican primary, why will it stop him in the general?

natesilver: Because winning 51 percent of 100 percent is way harder than winning 35 percent of 35 percent?

Silver nails it.

Trump will lose them the presidency, the Supreme Court and quite possibly the Senate.

And The Plum Line at Washington Post posted: The looming Trump disaster, in three charts:

Veteran Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg just released a new national pollthat will put Republicans on high (or even higher) alert: It sheds new light on just how awful the gender gap could get if Donald Trump is the GOP nominee.

It also illustrates (again) a host of problems with Trump’s hopes of surfing into the White House on a wave of white working class anger.

The key head-to-head topline of the poll — of 900 likely 2016 voters nationally — is that Hillary Clinton is leading Trump by 53-40. The poll — which was conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Women’s Voices, Women Vote Action Fund — shows that engagement in the election is rising substantially among key Democratic voter groups.

Chart: Hillary Clinton is beating Trump pretty badly among women

gap

The 21-point gender gap is driven by an enormous, 52-point advantage that Clinton enjoys over Trump in particular among unmarried women, a key Dem voting bloc in national elections.

Chart: white working class voters:

collegenoncollege

Trump is actually performing just below Romney’s 2012 totals among non-college whites. He does get a better margin than Romney among white non-college men, but that’s offset by the fact that he’s running behind Romney’s margin among white non-college women.

Trump’s hopes of running up huge margins among blue collar whites might be complicated if he alienates white non-college women.

Meanwhile, as noted above,  engagement is rising substantially among white non-college women (a potential problem for Trump) and among college women (who seem even more likely to be alienated by him), perhaps partly due to the seeming omnipresence of Trump’s sexism. Engagement is also rising substantially among nonwhites (if Trump under-performs among them, he’d have to drive his white vote margins even higher). And nearly half of Republican women (per Gallup) view him unfavorably.

Conservatives who see Trump as a looming disaster agree with all this.

…nominating Trump could mean a big Republican loss andcould further set back the party’s image among nonwhites, women, and young voters (whereas nominating, say, Marco Rubio might have begun to repair that image even if he lost). This has long been entirely predictable.

Indeed, GOP strategists predicted it.

Trump’s political demise has been predicted for a while.

Will it be before or after the GOP select’s it’s presidential candidate? Or not at all.

 

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15 Comments

  1. Alan Wilkinson

     /  3rd April 2016

    As I’ve said in the Open Forum thread, I think Trump’s campaign died with his disaster this week on the abortion issue. The link I posted there from the Washington Post also somewhat explains how he got trapped on that by the Republican Party’s two-faced policy on abortion.

    I think that after the Wisconsin primary the Republicans will switch from worrying about how to stop Trump to choosing who to nominate instead. And Clinton will be the next president unless she gets indicted first.

    Reply
    • Yes, I’ll put my house on that one (bar the impeachment possibility). Wouldn’t that leave the field open. President Sanders anyone?

      Reply
      • Clemgeopin

         /  3rd April 2016

        ” President Sanders anyone?”

        Yes, me.

        We need such a great democratic socialist as leader in every democratic western capitalist nation around the world from now on. I have no doubts about that at all.

        Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  3rd April 2016

        That, in a nutshell, is your problem, Clemgeopin. You need to grow scepticism, doubt and and judgement.

        Reply
        • Clemgeopin

           /  3rd April 2016

          And die as an utterly selfish, fearful, cowardly impotent conscientious-less fool?

          Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  3rd April 2016

          No, just as a gentler, kinder, happier and more realistic friend and relative.

          Reply
    • Gezza

       /  3rd April 2016

      I think you’re right, Alan. I’ve been following his twitter feed for a while now and I think he’s been totally overcooking things generally where I thought a wee while back he’d started to moderate his style.

      Reply
      • He walked right into that mess of an interview. I was surprised at his lack of political acumen – both at the time and subsequently.

        Reply
    • Kitty Catkin

       /  3rd April 2016

      I was surprised at what I saw of it-he didn’t seem to see it coming. He ought to say which side he’s on-pro-life or pro-abortion, he can’t be both.Talk about the Vicar of Bray.

      I am pro-life, and I hope that I wouldn’t betray my principles for the sake of a ribboned coat or the selfish hope of a season’s fame.

      Reply
  2. Talk about a rock and a hard place. One the one hand you have the unbalanced Trump and on the other, the religious zealot Cruz. The latter frightens me more than Trump. Cruz is so holier than thou. He’s got standards alright, it’s just that he doesn’t measure himself against them. The affair thing has legs. Personally, as a liberal I couldn’t care who one sleeps with as long as it is a consenting adult, and as for marriage vows, that’s between the couple. I do have a problem with someone who speaks to his conservative family values, wears them as a badge of sanctimony, but cannot and will not simply say – “I have been faithful to my wife”.

    As Salon says “The GOP’s toxic “family values” charade deserves continued scrutiny”.

    “Should it prove legitimate, inquiry about Ted Cruz’s sex life is more than just “gossip”—as Politico’s Jack Shafer likewise suggested. Cruz’s alleged affairs are worthy of inquiry for the same reason that it’s news when closeted Republicans like Larry Craig foot-tap for sex in an airport bathroom or Randy Boehning is caught on a gay hookup app: Their lies hurt people. Their duplicity, often cloaked in “family values” political rhetoric, profoundly affects the LGBT populations against whose interests they consistently voted, even while engaging in the exact behavior they deemed despicable. In 2006, Craig—the now-disgraced Idaho Senator—supported adding an amendment to the Constitution that would ban same sex-marriage.

    There’s a great rule of thumb on the subject, known as the Barney Frank Rule. “I think there’s a right to privacy,” the retired Congressman once explained to Bill Maher. “But the right to privacy should not be a right to hypocrisy. People who want to demonize other people shouldn’t then be able to go home and close the door, and do it themselves.” In 2014, journalist Itay Hod posted about former Illinois Representative Aaron Schock—who was long rumored to be gay—on Facebook. Many, like Huffington Post’s Michelangelo Signorile, argued that questions about Schock’s sexuality were worth asking because of the flamboyantly attired Republican’s terrible history on LGBT equality. He earned a zero rating from the HRC.”

    I’m glad I haven’t a vote, and if I did it would certainly be for the Democrats. They’re the safer pair of hands, the lesser of two evils, no matter the republican nominee.

    http://www.salon.com/2016/03/29/ted_cruzs_sex_life_matters_the_gops_toxic_family_values_charade_deserves_continued_debunking/

    Reply
  3. Nelly Smickers

     /  3rd April 2016

    Yes, it’s a bit of a shame the way things are turning out for Trump.

    We were soo looking forward to the arrival of Hair Force One XD

    Reply
  4. Clemgeopin

     /  3rd April 2016

    The worst part for me is that Trump is full of personal attacks against so many people, destroying much better people than him such as Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio.

    Hillary will win against Trump easily, but not necessarily against Ted Cruz or John Kasich, while Bernie Sanders does much better than Hillary against ALL the three Republican opponents. Hard to believe! There is a serious lesson in that for all the people, for all the capitalists, all the rich pricks, all the money merchant crooks and all the political leaders around the world. They will ignore this democratic socialist phenomenon and surging revolution that has begun in US of A at their own peril.

    See the latest Head to Head PRESIDENTIAL Dem Vs Rep polls here:
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  3rd April 2016

      That’s an interesting site. I’ve bookmarked it Thanks Clem.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  3rd April 2016

        There’s probably a few Trump strategists thinking he’s done this to himself this week

        😎

        Reply
        • Clemgeopin

           /  3rd April 2016

          LOL! I think that is how his model wife, Melania turns him on to blow his 69 year old antique trumpet hard about every fortnight or so when he returns with completely depleted charge after committing some more damage to his own ‘make me great again’ candidacy and to his surrogate pathetic RW national grand old party.

          Reply

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