One News/Colmar Brunton April 2016

The April 2016 One News/Colmar Brunton poll result:

  • National 50% (up from 47 in February)
  • Labour 28% (down from 32)
  • Greens 10% (up from 8)
  • NZ First 9% (down from 10)
  • Maori Party 1.1% (no change)
  • ACT Party 0.7% (up from 0.3)
  • Conservative Party 0.3% (down from 0.6)
  • Mana Party 0% (down from 0.3)

Don’t know/refused 13%

ColmarBruntonApril2016

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • John Key 39% (down from 40)
  • Winston Peters 10% (up from 9)
  • Andrew Little 7% (down from 9)
  • Jacinda Ardern 2% (no change)

Polling 2-6 April 2016

Details (PDF)

The last Roy Morgan (29 February – 13 March 2016)

  • National 46%
  • Labour 28%
  • Greens 14%
  • NZ First 9%
  • Maori Party 1%
  • ACT Party 1%
  • Conservative Party 0.5%
  • Internet-Mana 0.5%
  • United Future 0%
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33 Comments

  1. How can Little go up from 9% to 7% ? Looks like a typo, so where does he sit in the leadership stakes?

    Reply
  2. Corky

     /  10th April 2016

    The news item said Labour was behind Andrew Little. But, if the present trend continued all bets would be off. If that was a quote from a Labour source it means the party has become stir crazy from to many losses. Little either goes now, or Labour goes at the next election .

    Reply
    • Being behind a leader isn’t necessarily a good thing. There’s no sign that the knives are out but there must be growing concerns with the lack of traction.

      Reply
      • Corky

         /  10th April 2016

        Truthfully, I feel sorry for Little. Unless National are found to be participating in the Sex Slave trade I cannot see what anyone can do to sink the juggernaut that is John Key. I think Andrew is a decent person but he is a non-entity when up against Key. I have little time for the Left, but watching National take a sledge hammer to Labours knee-caps with each poll result has me feeling squeamish.

        Reply
  3. Iceberg

     /  10th April 2016

    So a bit over one quarter want Labour in government. But only one quarter of those want Little as PM? The union selection of the leader is working out super well. For National.

    Reply
  4. Very quiet on this poll at The Standard, won’t be a happy camp.

    David Farrar has some more details at Kiwiblog
    http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2016/04/latest_poll-36.html

    At the same time in the last term (April 2013) National was 43%, Labour was 36%, a 7% gap. In this poll the gap is 22%

    And he points out a December 2014 news report:

    Hitting 40 percent in the polls is Labour MP Jacinda Ardern’s goal for 2015

    “To see Andrew Little finish up so strong and to have all the team feeling as good as we did at the end of the year, I think he really deserves points for that.”

    As for next year…Ms Ardern will be focusing on getting Labour to that 40 percent mark in the polls.

    http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/labour-aims-for-40-percent-in-2015-2014121910#ixzz45P9v0uW2

    Reply
    • Iceberg

       /  10th April 2016

      “Very quiet on this poll at The Standard, won’t be a happy camp”

      They’ll be trying to figure a way to blame Key for this.

      Reply
      • Here’s one attempt to explain (no Key)

        1. The MSM doesn’t inform the NZ people. Ask your average NZers about many current events stories and they are woefully ignorant about what’s going on in their own country and the world.
        2. 30 years of neo-liberal poison has done a lot of damage and a lot of people only care for themselves. They only realise the benefit of society when it’s too late and they’ve been thrown on the scrapheap.
        3. The NZ Labour Party does not offer an alternative to neo-liberalism. Read my lips, Labour Party. “We apologise unreservedly for the damage we wrought on New Zealand working people when we unleashed neo-liberalism on the country. We are a socialist party and will go back to representing our people.”

        http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-10042016/#comment-1158375

        Reply
        • Iceberg

           /  10th April 2016

          “1. The MSM doesn’t inform the NZ people”

          Because the unpalatable alternative is that they, in fact, do.

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  10th April 2016

            Yes they do. But they don’t track what’s happening at the bottom end like they used to. Things are still ok for middle NZ and going great for upper NZ & I’m in the lower middle so it’s still working OK for me. I just want to see the bottom end somehow lifted out of the mire, gainfully employed doing something useful & not having to survive on benefits or miserably low wages. It’s tough out there for some & hard to aspire to anything better. Are they to be doomed to nothing. It seems like they get dismissed as deserving of contempt by some and I don’t understand why that it is.

            Reply
            • Iceberg

               /  10th April 2016

              Charter Schools – State school treatment of Maori in particular is shamefull.
              Welfare reform – work requirement for those on the DPB are critical.
              Increased benefits
              State housing reform – they’re the wrong size in the wrong places.
              Targeting teenage beneficiaries – teenage pregnancy is dropping rapidly.

              The reality is that Labour will be quietly thankful that National is dealing with this stuff. Means they won’t have to, because it would alienate their base.

            • Pantsdownbrown

               /  10th April 2016

              I personally know of quite a few employers that can’t fill comfortably ‘above minimum wage’ roles in their businesses at the moment……..random drug testing in the workplace is a key reason, the manual work these jobs require another.

            • Gezza

               /  10th April 2016

              Targeting teenage beneficiaries – teenage pregnancy is dropping rapidly.
              @ Iceberg. Yes. About time. That’s been hard but necessary I believe.

            • Gezza

               /  10th April 2016

              @ PDB. What’s the issue with the manual work? Do they not want to do it? Why not?

              Drug testing in the workplace. What’s coming up? P? Dope? I presume you would therefore be against marijuana legalisation – something that is being touted as possible employment solution by some?

            • Gezza

               /  10th April 2016

              @Iceberg
              Welfare reform – work requirement for those on the DPB are critical.
              Are there enough jobs they can actually do & childcare services out there?

              Increased benefits
              Interesting. Wasn’t expecting that in your list. Who for?

            • David

               /  11th April 2016

              Everyone wants those at the bottom get an improvement in life, the question is how you do this without negative outcomes. That is a lot harder than some sound bites on inequality.

            • Gezza

               /  11th April 2016

              @ David. I know. That’s why I’m looking for who has some answers because I haven’t got them. I wish I had. I think capitalism works brilliantly. But it doesn’t work for everybody.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  11th April 2016

              @Gezza, the vast majority of the problem is between the ears so the solution has to be targeted there. If that can be fixed it will free up resources to tackle the remainder largely due to misfortune.

              So the solutions have to be in a combination of education and incentives which means changes in both. Continuing what we do now can only produce the same results. It does seem to me that National are addressing both aspects intelligently and sensitively. They deserve respect and assistance. It would be good if the more intelligent members of the opposition decided to help rather than hinder.

            • Gezza

               /  11th April 2016

              I like the way you express yourself when you’re not just whacking lefties. My vote’s for sale like everybody else’s. I want it to be a well-informed one.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  11th April 2016

              Lefties are just collateral damage, Gezza. I try to focus on the facts and principles. I like an intelligent and informed challenge to those because that is what we can all learn from.

        • David

           /  10th April 2016

          1. The voters are stupid
          2. The voters are stupid
          3. Turn left for the promised land.

          Reply
        • Iceberg

           /  10th April 2016

          Bradbury has found a way to blame Key for Labours result.

          Is he the most idiotic commentator in the known Universe ?

          Reply
          • Yes.

            He’s followed quite closely by Sabine and Jenny Kirk at thestandard for being particularly wide of the mark when it comes to taking the nation’s political pulse though. 😀

            Reply
          • David

             /  11th April 2016

            Yes, but he’s got a lot of competition.

            Reply
  5. Claire Trevett @CTrevettNZH
    Crikey – Labour’s right disappearing at a rate of knots. Jones, Goff now Cosgrove. Shearer and O’Connor last ones standing!

    Interesting point. It won’t necessarily make them more attractive to voters.

    Reply
  6. Dougal

     /  10th April 2016

    If it was Ardern’s goal or job to get labour to 40% she should be out of a job. Robertson will be quietly rubbing his hands together. If nothing else it proves McCarten has to be the worst strategist in living memory. It seems his only strategy is to bark at every passing car and soft release potty policy ideas for public beta testing. Labour really are a mess and all the experimentation has and is costing them dearly. Little is not prime minister material, he has no statesman type qualities nor does he have an ounce of likeable charisma.

    Reply
  7. The trend continues…. Labour struggling to set a steady upward path…. they floated ideas/bribes and none have got traction. they better have killer policy lined up for March next year otherwise its going to a difficult run in to the Election for Mr Little and crew….

    Those numbers keep Winston happy as well….. not inconceivable NZ First could suck the old school conservative Labour vote out of a more radical Labour and we end up with 3 parties in the 10-20 percent bracket say Labour 20%, Greens 12, NZF 12 ….. with a fair few just not bothering after a succession of Nats at 47% plus polls…

    Reply
  8. Pantsdownbrown

     /  10th April 2016

    The Ardern/Robertson bloc are still undermining the whole operation – look for Robertson to finally come to the conclusion that he isn’t PM/Labour leader material and then attempt to ride in on the ‘Ardern for PM’ ticket as deputy and chief string puller.

    Reply
  9. Alan Wilkinson

     /  10th April 2016

    Apart from Labour I doubt any of the changes since the last poll are statistically significant given the probable margins of error. But no change is good for the Government.

    Reply
  10. The anti TPP didn’t work, the politicising of the flag failed to garner them a poll rise, the xenophobic chinky surname thing never worked. Goff, Shearer, Cunliffe and Little didn’t cut the mustard. Labour railing against the positive in society isn’t working, they’re Negative Nancies to a man and woman – and that citizens is all they’ve got.

    Until the NZ left finds their Justin Trudeau and someone with crossover appeal, they’re doomed to sub 30%. Any point over 30% in recent years has been brief or a blip. Clark, (and can I suggest Shearer) had that. The floating voter, the one they despise and deny in equal measure, wants the proverbial safe pair of hands and would like just a splash of charisma. They don’t want the revolution the standardise as think they do and they certainly don’t want whining career politicians, more interested in patch protection than good governance at the helm.

    Fortunately for the centre, it’s evident the left don’t get it and they don’t have options on the radar. UBI. Are they serious?? Heavens they’re sticking with Matt McCarten in the face of what can only be described as abject directional failure, and they’re fiddling as their Rome burns uncontrollably.

    I’d go as far to say that the next leader of any LabGreen government is not even in Parliament.

    Reply

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