Poll reaction ‘worse than usual’

Andrew from Colmar Brunton just tweeted:

Wow this week’s poll! The criticism has been much worse than usual. NEVER happens when Labour support increases.

Labour is down 4 to 28%, the first time they have dipped below 30 since the 2014 election, and National is up 3 to 50% – see One News/Colmar Brunton April 2016.

The reaction from the left, apparent on Twitter and at The Standard, ranged from disbelief to  blame, of everything from bad or corrupt polling methods, misleading or corrupt media and John Key.

Hard core Labour supporters have now had nearly eight years of post-Clark frustration and disappointment and daashed hopes.

On current performances (of the party and of leader Andrew Little) this looks unlikely to change any time soon.

Labour has faded from a major party with a widely respected leader to a struggling party with diminishing status.

They are on to their fourth leader and their latest one seems to be heading towards failure, probably hastened by this week’s lurch into dirty politics.

Except that the party seems averse to swapping leaders yet again and go through yet another upheaval, and no one appears keen to step up and take over what looks like a now poisoned chalice.

The remaining Labour supporters (and leadership) seem blind to their own fairly major shortcomings so they blame everyone and everything else on their failures.

I’ve experienced this myself over the years, especially at The Standard where attack seems to be their only way of dealing with continued failure to gain and political traction or to score significant hits on opponents.

You can get banned from the Standard for telling them they are doing their cause a disservice with their attacks on anyone deemed disloyal or in disagreement with their behaviour or their ideals.

Things are probably looking more grim than ever for Labour. So it’s not surprising to hear  that Andrew and Colmar Brunton are bearing the brunt of their anger.

The 5 stages of loss and grief:

  1. Denial
  2. Anger
  3. Bargaining
  4. Depression
  5. Acceptance

Labour supporters seem to have spent most of the last seven and a half years bouncing between 1 and 2, with a few bouts of 4.

This term they have begun to talk about some 3 with Greens and NZ First but keep falling back to 1 and 2, which is what Andrew (Grumpollie) has experienced since the poll was published.

And another Andrew, the Little one, seems to have taken a major does of 2 with his attacks in Parliament this week, so Colmar Brunton may need to prepare them for the next poll. Neither the poll nor the reaction may be pretty.

27 Comments

  1. Iceberg

     /  April 14, 2016

    “You can get banned from the Standard for telling them they are doing their cause a disservice”

    The Standard and TDB are the Rights best weapons. It would be of no surprise if Hagers next book was about how they are hosted on servers owned by Jason Ede.

    • Kevin

       /  April 14, 2016

      That would make Prentice the ultimate troll. 🙂

    • Gezza

       /  April 14, 2016

      Oddly some long-term dissenting righty posters are tolerated. BM’s always worth a read.

  2. Kevin

     /  April 14, 2016

    “You can get banned from the Standard for telling them they are doing their cause a disservice with their attacks on anyone deemed disloyal or in disagreement with their behaviour or their ideals.”

    Indeed. And if CV wasn’t an author he would be goneburger by now.

    Labour seems to be taking being the opposition party a bit too literally. The fact is the majority are happy and National’s strategy is too keep the majority happy (ie. utilitarianism). If Labour continues to oppose everything National does then logic says they’re going to continue to piss off the majority of voters.

    A winning strategy for Labour is actually quite simple.

    1. Get a leader with charisma.
    2. Say to the majority of voters, “more of the same but we’ll do it better.”
    3. As an extra bonus, say to those who feel disenfranchised, “don’t worry unlike National, we’ve got your back”.

    • Iceberg

       /  April 14, 2016

      CV used to be one of their worst attack dogs. His tag team efforts against dissent were something to behold.

    • Dougal

       /  April 14, 2016

      At the end of the day it must boil down to who Labour are using for strategy advise. McCarten is at the root of this and under his watch Labour have been slaughtered at every turn. I agree they need someone with charisma and someone more centrist is outlook. Who is that person?

      From the top down:

      Andrew Little:
      Left Uni started as a lawyer for a union then went on to be head of a union then Politician. Zero commercial environment experience.
      Annette King:
      Career health advisor with some experience in economic development zero commercial environment experience
      Grant Robertson:
      Career politician, charity organiser, “diplomat”. Zero commercial experience
      Phil Twyford:
      Journalist, union organiser, charity organiser Zero commercial experience
      Jacinda Ardern:
      Career politician nothing beyond recognised youth representative. Never held a job in the real world and zero commercial experience
      Chris Hipkins:
      1 year job as a “training consultant”, career politician zero commercial experience
      Kelvin Davis:
      Career school teacher zero commercial experience
      Carmel Sepuloni:
      Primary school teacher, health and disability advisor, woman’s affairs observer zero commercial experience.
      Dr David Clark:
      Gob botherer and career student zero commercial experience
      Dr Megan Woods:
      PHD in what is the past, community advocate some commercial, government backed commercial enterprise.
      David Parker:
      Highly qualified with lots of commercial experience, quiet and mild mannered but lacks charisma otherwise a pretty good candidate.
      Nanaia Mahuta:
      Serial trustee member and Maori advocate zero commercial experience
      And the list goes on…There is a total of 5 of the party MP’s that have any commercial or real world experience. Perhaps this is their Achilles heel? Almost all have nothing more than useless degrees in general knowledge (arts) with trust positions and community advocacy roles. Where is the depth of character and experience? Cosgrove has a pretty impressive CV but is a weasel like character and is leaving so a no go there either.

      Then we have Matt McCarten. throughout recent political history McCarten has had trouble in every role he has held with almost all of the sideline parties most notably when he split from Labour to join jolly Jim Anderton. That also ended in tears and Matt joined the now political exile Laila Harre who summarily led Alliance to a bloodbath in 2002 with all representation gone from parliament. McCarten stumbled around other parties, Maori, Mana and found himself back at Labour but the underlying theme is one of failure and lack of loyalty. The point really being that there is no real structure or stable baseline to speak of. Even the leader does not have the full support of the caucus as demonstrated with the last 3 leaders. They are doomed to be consigned to coventry unless drastic changes are made and a willingness to be more centrist.

      • Corky

         /  April 14, 2016

        The buck starts at the top, and ends at the top

        Andrew Little:

        Left Uni started as a lawyer for a union then went on to be head of a union
        Zero commercial environment experience.

        John Key

        Key’s first job was in 1982, as an auditor at McCulloch Menzies, and he then moved to be a project manager at Christchurch-based clothing manufacturer Lane Walker Rudkin for two years. Key began working as a foreign exchange dealer at Elders Finance in Wellington, and rose to the position of head foreign exchange trader two years later,then moved to Auckland-based Bankers Trust in 1988.

        In 1995, he joined Merrill Lynch as head of Asian foreign exchange in Singapore. That same year he was promoted to Merrill’s global head of foreign exchange, based in London, where he may have earned around US$2.25 million a year including bonuses, which is about NZ$5 million at 2001 exchange rates. Some co-workers called him “the smiling assassin” for maintaining his usual cheerfulness while sacking dozens (some say hundreds) of staff after heavy losses from the 1998 Russian financial crisis. He was a member of the Foreign Exchange Committee of the New York Federal Reserve Bank from 1999 to 2001.

        Key has real world experience and knows how to prune deadwood as poor old Tau found out.

        • Dougal

           /  April 14, 2016

          Yes Corky that is a good comparison though almost every Labour supporter would be apoplectic with rage at the sight of this. Commercial experience teaches you a great deal about worldly awareness and how the wheels of industry and life turn. Real world experience rounds a person and in general will instil a greater understanding of both sides of the argument making for good centralist values, in other words, being able to compromise for the best outcome and letting others have a view though contrary to your own without a bunfight. All but 5 of the MP’s in the Labour caucus are career politicians, trustee’s or some sort of self interest group advocate. This does not make for a well rounded, worldly politician. The blinkers are set from the early outset and nothing will sway that view..it’s inbred along with indoctrination of the worst kind. Evil capitalists, money hungry, soulless tories only thinking of themselves and never helping others, never paying their fair share and have all the wealth as 1%’ers. So long as they are mired in this state they will never be attractive to middle class.

          • Gezza

             /  April 14, 2016

            You’re right. Their inability to even intelligently discuss matters of business tax etc in other than sound-byte headlines and stunts is off-putting. It’s not resonating with the people they need to convince that they could actually run an economy and a business themselves.

            • Dougal

               /  April 14, 2016

              I don’t see how this line of attacking the government on every single issue is gaining them any more support? It may shore up support for the 27% they have in the bag but that’s all. Again, is this McCarten’s strategy? Will he run Labour into the ground like his past efforts? I mean, seriously, who is running the show?

            • Gezza

               /  April 14, 2016

              I think Andrew is running the show, but I just think the show is all over the place. I can’t see any coherence.

      • Iceberg

         /  April 14, 2016

        I see you didn’t get as far as Cunliffes CV? Or did that one make you sick up your mouth a little bit?

        It doesn’t pay to reflect too long on the cost of the gold plated troughs all of that adds up to.

        • Dougal

           /  April 14, 2016

          If I thought he mattered I would have included him. He is a political retard, something he demonstrated quite effectively on a number of occasions no the least being the worst election result ever handed to Labour. None of his “commercial experience” helped him in any way, shape or form.

  3. Well, with the 5 stages, you somehow imply that they have to reach 5 and accept their fate of being largely irrelevant. A bit harsh and possibly premature

    • Iceberg

       /  April 14, 2016

      “Possibly premature”

      You know they’ve been in opposition for 8 years, and looking down the barrel of 15, right?

  4. Zedd

     /  April 14, 2016

    The difference between Labour & National (‘Team Key’):

    Labour is criticised for every minor indiscretion.. & condemned everytime they challenge ‘Team Key’.. WTF ! 😦

    National stumbles from one indiscretion to the next.. (hair pulling, flag ref., Panama papers etc etc) BUT the ‘faithful Keyites’ just ignore it. Everytime there is ‘an issue raised’.. “its all the fault of the previous Labour Govt.”
    The ‘cult of Key’ roles on; watching every poll & reacting…..
    BUT ‘give them enough rope…..’ 😀

    • Gezza

       /  April 14, 2016

      They’ve been given hundreds of miles of rope by Labour. They’ve sold it and made a profit.

      • Zedd

         /  April 14, 2016

        LOL.. but one thing they dont seem to realise; an excess of ‘rope’ can cause a glut & slump in the market (look at dairy) ! :/

    • Dougal

       /  April 14, 2016

      The difference between Labour and National is 22% and climbing actually Zedd 🙂

      • Zedd

         /  April 14, 2016

        @Dougal

        your percentage maybe correct.. BUT at least Labour has coalition options, to close this gap: Greens & NZ1st. (currently extra 26 seats)
        ‘Team Key’ are looking increasingly lonely.. like their options are; 1 act seat, 1 u/f seat (both only there because of ‘dodgy deals’ ) & perhaps 2 maori seats.. BUT in 2017 we shall see ? :/

        no use, counting unhatched chickens……… 😀

        • Dougal

           /  April 14, 2016

          I agree, chickens should not be counted but Labour as the formal opposition party should have expectations well above 27%. If your saying they only way they have any hope of getting into government is having to form a coalition then that is a pretty sad inditement on the party isn’t it? The current performance of Labour is nothing other than sitting back taking potshots at every passing issue. Where is the policy? Where is the plan to appeal to middle NZ? They are lurching further to the left with every move. Look, I don’t necessarily want to see National in power forever, we need balance and we need a strong opposition to keep the buggers honest. Myself, I want an alternative, I want to see something good and most of all I want to see someone (or a party) that can keep the economy on track so all NZ’ers benefit not just the elite but what choice to I have Zedd? The greens are not the answer. NZ first are a bunch of xenophobes. Act..well, what is one person who is barely out of uni going to do to help? If Tariana and Pita were still in charge of the Maori party I would be happy to have them there.

    • Iceberg

       /  April 14, 2016

      How was the flag referendum or the Panama papers an “indiscretion”? The former was carrying through with a promised policy, and the latter??

      The hair pulling may have been unwise by Key, but it was a political beat-up.

      Little is supposed to be auditioning for the role of Prime Minister, not the Village Idiot.

      • Zedd

         /  April 14, 2016

        @ice
        ‘Little.. auditioning for role of PM, not village idiot.’

        I think you have the mirror on the wrong side of the house.. Key acts the fool & as village idiot, everytime he is ‘in the spotlight’ in Q-time :/

        What is it with you Tory ‘Keyites’ cant you see ‘beyond the end of your noses’ ? 😀

        • Iceberg

           /  April 14, 2016

          You got me. I’m all ears. My vote is up for grabs. Convince me to vote for Little.

          Don’t forget to factor in the Greens and Winston into your list of reasons.

          Go!

        • Iceberg

           /  April 14, 2016

          So you talk a big game, but even you are in the 93% who prefer him not to be Prime Minister.

          • Zedd

             /  April 14, 2016

            @ice

            This is MMP.. not FPP !
            I’ll leave it to you to make your own mind up…. what that means

            btw; I only usually give one tick to Labour.. my party vote goes elsewhere.. its about wider representation.. its not a 2 party system.. get it, got it, good ! 🙂

            • Iceberg

               /  April 14, 2016

              Use any electoral system you like. It ain’t gonna get him elected if even his supporters can’t give a straight answer as to why I should vote for him.