Bradbury bombs on basic facts

Martyn Bradbury has been all over the place on the Labour-Green Memorandum of Understanding, initially criticising it but eventually claiming that it changes everything.

His claim that the “new perception changes everything” fails basic fact tests, and “the way the media must now report the Polls and the way voters see the Polls that is the most immediate impact of this MoU” is bollocks – media already report on polls in the way he says they must.

When the MoU was announced, and since, Bradbury has slammed the announcement:

June 3:

“The launch was a clumsy flop…”

June 4:

“The inhumane haste at which the Labour Party and Greens announced their Memorandum of Understanding last week has been stripped bare by a power struggle that has quietly been occurring behind the scenes within the Greens.”

But by June 5:

The launch of the MoU may have been rushed, clumsy and with little detail so as to avert a strategic change of position for the Greens, but Andrew’s performance helped prove that a union together was better than cross bench neutrality.

What few political pundits or commentators could understand last week, was the unseemly haste with which the Greens and Labour rushed out their Memorandum of Understanding. While many progressive voters have wanted this announcement for 8 years, the timing seemed odd and the actual details very light, the Green Party AGM in Christchurch this weekend helped answer some of those questions.

All this talk about haste probably means that Bradbury wasn’t told in advance so it caught him by surprise. But after attending the Green AGM in the weekend it seems like Labour or the Greens might have promised him a new laptop or something.

Today: Why the MoU changes everything and why the NZ mainstream media are the worst enemies of democracy

The haste of stitching together the MoU to stall the Identitarians and blue-green factions inside the Greens from moving to a neutrality stance at the last AGM aside, the Labour-Green Memorandum of Understanding changes everything in one simple move.

New Zealanders aren’t too bright, partly from the lack of quality information they get (Jane Bowron makes this point today – yet manages to miss the impact Waatea 5th Estate has had at 7pm)…

Bowron missed the impact of quite a few things, like the of landing of a golden autumn leaf in the mildest of June zephyrs.

The mainstream media, apart from colluding with hate speech merchants like Cameron Slater (until they were caught) and pimping for the interests of bankers, corporations, farmers and property speculators are the worst enemies of democracy in NZ because they never take the time to point out how close the MMP environment makes the election for National.

That sounds like nothing apart from a general bellyache at enemies.

When TVNZ and TV3 do their latest Polls, they sell it as ‘Labour 30% and National at 47%. This constant advertising for National gives the impression that Key’s 4th term is assured. What the MoU does is force Paddy Gower and other mainstream media pimps to reflect the real Parliamentary equation, that combined, Labour-Greens are 42% and National 47%.

That new perception changes everything.

It forces the media to acknowledge the election is closer and it suddenly dawns on sleepy hobbits that actually Key isn’t untouchable.

It is this perception change in the way the media must now report the Polls and the way voters see the Polls that is the most immediate impact of this MoU.

Except for one thing – this is bollocks.

The media can report things however they like, their is no compulsion to report polls in a way that Bradbury or Labour/Greens want them to.

It suggests that Bradbury and possible Greens and/or Labour are trying have their cake and eat it – they say the MoU is entirely about changing the Government and ends at the election, but won’t say how a coalition may look until the voters have ‘spoken’ at the election so has nothing to do with coalition convolutions.

They don’t want to be connected in coalition configurations, except when it suits it seems that they are.

And TVNZ (One News) and TV3 (Newshub) already report on combined poll results anyway, so Bradbury fails on facts on that.

One News in April 2016:  Flag flop fails to dent Government’s popularity

When converted into seats in Parliament, it’s a clear cut win for National who get 61 seats and the ability to govern alone in a Parliament of 121.

Labour would have 34, and even with the Greens 12 seats could only muster 46 as a left wing block.

NZ First would have 11 seats while Act, United Future and the Maori Party all would have one.

Newshub in May 2016: Key’s popularity plummets to lowest level

2_seats_in_the_house1
Roy Morgan does similar: National and Labour vote up in May but NZ First still holds the balance of power position despite vote falling

During May support for National rose 3% to 45.5%, now ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 41.5% (up 1%).

If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 9.5% (even though down 3% still NZ First’s second highest level of support in twenty years) would be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government.

So all polls highlight the fact that Labour+Greens can’t do it alone and would need NZ First.

Back to Bradbury:

When TVNZ and TV3 do their latest Polls, they sell it as ‘Labour 30% and National at 47%. This constant advertising for National gives the impression that Key’s 4th term is assured. What the MoU does is force Paddy Gower and other mainstream media pimps to reflect the real Parliamentary equation, that combined, Labour-Greens are 42% and National 47%.

They already do that.

That new perception changes everything.

It isn’t a new perception so it changes nothing.

It forces the media to acknowledge the election is closer and it suddenly dawns on sleepy hobbits that actually Key isn’t untouchable.

The media have made it clear that the reality that seems to escape Bradbury – or he wants to hide it or hide from it – is that NZ First can on current polling decide who to side with.

It is this perception change in the way the media must now report the Polls and the way voters see the Polls that is the most immediate impact of this MoU.

So going by this it will have no impact.

Bradbury fails the fact test. That is probably no change either.

Leave a comment

21 Comments

  1. It is possible for new perceptions to change attitudes. However if the “new perceptions” are only supported by an agenda following MSM onslaught of self-congratulatory propaganda, then the average Kiwi will dismiss it. The problem that the MSM have is that they really do not understand that a characteristic of Kiwis is that they make their own minds up, and certainly do not believe everything the media says in print or elsewhere. Its a pity that the pool of ethical journalists has been diminished by pursuit of money or popularity and thus diminished their role in our democracy.

    Reply
  2. Iceberg

     /  6th June 2016

    “New Zealanders aren’t too bright”

    Aside from the weapons grade arrogance and intolerance from the champion of the revolution, they’re thankfully bright enough not to give idiots like him, or the idiots he advocates for, any political power.

    Reply
    • PDB

       /  6th June 2016

      I think he meant that some people still voting Labour aren’t too bright and now that the MOU has spelt out to them that the Greens are definitely on board they will now defect to NZL First.

      Reply
  3. Gezza

     /  6th June 2016

    I still like Martyn – a lot. Whenever I see him on Waatea 5th Estate I love the way he raves & gets most excited about the things that he’s saying, and these days, at any time I expect him to reach over his shoulder, grab Dusty Hill’s bass guitar, and rip into it:


    😎

    Reply
  4. Kitty Catkin

     /  6th June 2016

    What’s inhumane haste ?

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  6th June 2016

      I think it’s when you do something totally unexpected with a massively loud fanfare it causes premature births & severe shocks to the systems of your supporters.

      Reply
    • MDG

       /  6th June 2016

      It’s an anagram for Hum Insane Hate.

      Reply
  5. Ray

     /  6th June 2016

    “New Zealanders aren’t too bright” tell us a lot about Marty’s mind set, of course his track record hardy shouts political genius but this really says it all.
    Though I am prepared to bet the farm if the Left ever wins it will because NZers are geniuses according to Marty.
    Fortunately they are smarter than Marty.

    Reply
    • PDB

       /  6th June 2016

      Bradbury makes Nicky Watson look like Einstein.

      Reply
    • Simond

       /  6th June 2016

      I frequent TDB quite often to see what it is exercising the far left. The one thing that is consistently echoed from blog to blog is the dislike of middle NZ, it is really quite an intense hatred. Words like “muddle Nu Zilund” appear often and whilst bizarre is quite revealing in a clear reflection of the far lefts paternalism and control freakery. The more I see of it the more I realise how important it is to keep these nut cases away from power. Letting those people who hate the vast majority of New Zealanders would be a disaster.

      Reply
      • PDB

         /  6th June 2016

        Extreme left-wingers know what’s good for all of us and democracy is great in their eyes as long as they are in positions of power calling the shots. If only you would see the light Simond.

        Reply
        • Blazer

           /  7th June 2016

          Some people are blinded by the light,the light of sinecure,consultancies,old boy networks,and cronyism,layered and patronised by the banking set.

          Reply
      • Blazer

         /  7th June 2016

        you have no idea.’Muddle nuzilders’ is a Keyism.The left detest the super wealthy ‘rich pricks’ whose lobbying donations influence govt legislature.The rich are clever and redirect NZ’ers angst to the down trodden ,the so called ‘bludgers’ of society.They are very successful at it too,diverting attention away from themselves,the parasites,supparating sores on the face of humanity.

        Reply
  6. PDB

     /  7th June 2016

    Bradbury absolutely hates voters that think for themselves – he much prefers the people who vote for the left based purely on how much ‘free’ money they are being promised.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  7th June 2016

      Bradbury rocks! I miss Ronnie Barker. Martyn is his nearest replacement I can think of.

      Reply

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s