Green belief in change of Government

After their annual AGM in the weekend the Green Party believes it has what is required to change the Government.

RNZ: Greens and Labour cement plan to oust National

The Green party believes it has the money, members and momentum to finally change the government at the next election.

They believed that in 2014 too.

But there are two or three vital things missing from that list.

Votes.

The Labour Party, an essential for Green success, appears to be short of money, members and momentum.

And probably, Winston. NZ First will probably be required to make up the numbers, and will also have to choose Labour over National despite Labour presumably having significantly lower support than National, and even if NZ First chooses Labour over National that could be on the condition that Greens are left out in the cold, as happened in 2005.

The Greens can’t change the Government on their own. Despite targeting 15% in 2014 they failed to increase their vote in 2o014 (it reduced slightly) and may have hit a Green ceiling.

By symbolically joining with Labour in an agreement (that expires before coalition negotiations begin) Greens may feel they have strengthened their position but it could just as easily play against them, or at least play against Labour as it makes them look weaker.

The Labour-Green alliance has accentuated the Winston elephant in the room.

It’s a bold move by the Greens to define fights against both National and NZ First at the same time.

Money – Greens do well with fund raising but money doesn’t buy success in politics, as Colin Craig and Kim Dotcom and Hone Harawira discovered in 2014.

Members – Greens say they have significantly increased their membership but also admit a high level of churn – they also lose many members.

Momentum – the Greens are trying to create a perception of momentum but herere there is a disconnect with reality. Momentum hasn’t been evident over the past few years, and there is no sign of it in anything other than their rhetoric at the moment.

Belief is one thing – and the Greens have had no shortage in belief in their ideals and their attractiveness to voters. In ways they are like a cult religion.

Getting enough people to share their beliefs – in their policies, in their abilities, and just as critically in their partner party or parties – is a big challenge for the ambitious and determined (and largely reliant on labour and probably NZ First) Greens.

The Greens may think the MoU now has them and Labour facing in the same direction in their campaign row boat, but no matter how frantically the Greens row if Labour continue to catch crabs and have slackers the Green boat may continue to circle in frustration.

Leave a comment

40 Comments

  1. Why did the Greens have their AGM at Lincoln? I doubt there would have been much public transport available there.

    Reply
    • Kevin

       /  7th June 2016

      Why travel by bus when you can catch a plane called Hypocrisy?

      Reply
      • Kitty Catkin

         /  7th June 2016

        Off to the Naughty Seat with YOU, this time. You can take this box of chocolate truffles with you-no, not that one, the big one…

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  7th June 2016

          Nyah nyah – your box of chokkie truffles might be bigger than mine, but she gave me a bottle of wine as well. 😎

          Reply
  2. ‏@NzMorningReport
    #labourgreens @AndrewLittleMP confirms Green party MP’s wld be Ministers in Labour-led Govt.

    Why wouldn’t Little say that when they launched the MoU?

    Is this effectively confirmation they are trying to go it alone and are trying to cut Winston out?

    Reply
    • Waiting for the Greens announcement that there will be Labour ministers in a Green-led government.

      Reply
    • Kevin

       /  7th June 2016

      So the Greenies will be over presented as ministers.

      Goodbye representative democracy.

      Reply
      • Iceberg

         /  7th June 2016

        By that logic, they’re under represented now, aren’t they?

        Reply
        • Kevin

           /  7th June 2016

          If that’s true then so are ACT.

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  7th June 2016

            Well, to be fair, ACT have got one more Parliamentary Under-secretary than the Greens.

            Reply
    • Corky

       /  7th June 2016

      Having Grant as finance minister my have calmed a few nerves, but the thought of Green MP’s holding important portfolios will have everyone’s sphincter muscles tightening again.

      Reply
      • Goldie

         /  7th June 2016

        You may be surprised Corky. Other business people I talk to have been very impressed by Julie Genter (who is intelligent and hard-working), and have formed a very low opinion of Grant Robertson. I suspect most business would actually prefer Genter over Robertson.

        Reply
        • Kitty Catkin

           /  7th June 2016

          If I had a business, I would want a Minister of Finance who was sympathetic to business, not stuck in a timewarp where t’bosses are out to do down t’workers.

          Reply
  3. Ray

     /  7th June 2016

    Having Grant as Finance Minister is reason enough to not vote for these clowns.
    No experience, no background at all with money, he gives the appearance that he couldn’t balance his own chequebook ( if he has one)

    Reply
    • Corky

       /  7th June 2016

      I was talking of Labour supporters re Grant. However, most will see it as a no-no for Green MPs to hold important portfolios.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  7th June 2016

        Grant might be all right as Finance Minister. Don’t they all end up mostly doing what Treasury recommends anyway?

        Reply
        • PDB

           /  7th June 2016

          Grant will do what the unions & special interest groups want……….

          Reply
        • spanish_tudor

           /  7th June 2016

          Robertson is notoriously lazy, and only interested in portfolios that cater to his attachment to identity politics and victimhood.

          He’s rubbish in the Finance portfolio, and only took it as it keeps him closer to the decision-making process than a social policy portfolio.

          Reply
    • Kitty Catkin

       /  7th June 2016

      That’s a worry & says little for Labour’s judgement if it’s so. Help !

      Reply
  4. Gezza

     /  7th June 2016

    I watched Lisa Owen interview the wimp and Metiria, standing together in front of their red & green backgrounds at the Green Party Conference on The Nation. They better hope nobody else did.

    Recommended viewing for all YNZers, especially Blazer.

    Watch Andy when Lisa asks him about Labour’s policy on offshore drilling 😮 & Metiria jumps in hurriedly to save him. Possum in headlights. What an embarrassing interview for them both. :/

    Reply
  5. Zedd

     /  7th June 2016

    I keep hearing that many kiwis fear a Govt. with the Greens in it.. BUT does anyone seriously want another term of ‘TEAM KEY’ ? “NO !!!” sez I&I
    *Out of touch, totally SMUG & only running the country/economy for the 50.1% who are currently keeping them in power ! 😦

    ** Mind the Gap folks… its getting wider & wider & still wider :/

    Reply
    • PDB

       /  7th June 2016

      Well considering at present around 45% want a National led govt next term and 11% want a Greens led govt your point is, well, pointless.

      Reply
    • Iceberg

       /  7th June 2016

      “only running the country/economy for the 50.1%”

      Bastards aren’t they? Stopping the other 49.9 from going to schools, hospitals, using the roads and watching TV.

      Reply
      • Zedd

         /  7th June 2016

        @ice

        now whose being silly ?

        I meant mostly ‘for the BENEFIT of’ 😦

        Reply
  6. Pete Kane

     /  7th June 2016

    Hooten makes some valid points here.
    “How the Green-Labour memorandum of understanding has gone down.”

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/201803533/political-commentators-mike-williams-and-matthew-hooton

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  7th June 2016

      The most interesting part of that interview for me Pete was Williams & Hooton both agreeing with what Winston is saying about Immigration, most particularly on how we should not be allowing in immigrants with misogynistic attitudes to women, and that all immigrants should be interviewed to ascertain whether they do.

      i don’t think they currently are all interviewed – looks like interviews are only done in some cases & are not the norm – p 7:
      https://www.immigration.govt.nz/documents/forms-and-guides/inz-1003-self-assess-guide-for-residence-in-nz.pdf

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  7th June 2016

        Relevant part of the interview on this topic starts around 19:50.

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  7th June 2016

          I would be pretty sceptical about the value of immigration staff interviewing immigrants for any purpose that required skill and judgement. A professionally designed psychological test might work provided it was fairly immune to being coached to pass it.

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  7th June 2016

            True. And if we start interviewing immigrants, questions designed to screen out misogynists will be taken to Court for breaching the UN declaration of Human Rights because they’ll be seen as discriminating against muzzos.

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  7th June 2016

              While that might fly over the heads of Williams & Hooton, Winston’s a lawyer: he knows that.

  7. Pete Kane

     /  7th June 2016

    I’ll be interested to see how the media play out the commonality in this matter- particularly with Winston looking on.
    http://www.radiolive.co.nz/Labour-to-clamp-down-on-immigrants-ability-to-work/tabid/506/articleID/123423/Default.aspx

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  7th June 2016

      I think Andrew did reasonably well in that interview Pete (so I won’t call him the wimp). The immigration thing, when anybody gets into the details of what they would change and how, is a bit like squeezing a balloon. I’m not sure that anybody has the full picture of what’s happening with the various different categories, including things like working holidaymakers & work permits.

      PDB has commented before here that he knows employers who’re offering above award wages in some particular industry he hasn’t identified, and that they just can’t get New Zealand staff – they either fail drug tests or they just don’t want to work.

      Andy covered the questions re how long the MoU has been in the works between Green & Labour well I thought.

      Reply
  8. Chwaga

     /  7th June 2016

    All I see is the labour team in the boat and the green team floundering in the sea with a large sign which says “ELECTION 2017”

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  7th June 2016

      Say what you like about the Green Party Conference at least they didn’t have to worry about some crazy National or Act supporter turning up and throwing dildos at them. :/

      Reply
      • Kitty Catkin

         /  7th June 2016

        Well, yes. At the Act Conference, we were all asked to leave any dildos at the door with _________ and collect them on the way out. 😀

        Reply
        • Kitty Catkin

           /  7th June 2016

          At one Act conference, David Caygill was on the platform and was introduced by Jim Hopkins who said that he was easy to recognise because ‘he looked like Brad Pitt’. David Caygill replied instantly ‘That’s Brad Pitt the younger.’

          Loud laughter from those of us who recognised this allusion. Oh, the wit.

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  7th June 2016

            At the Act Conference, we were all asked to leave any dildos at the door with _________ and collect them on the way out.

            Umm … I don’t quite know how to put this question …

            Reply

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