One News Poll – June 2016

One News Colmar Brunton poll for June 2016:

  • National 48% (down from 50)
  • Labour 29% (up from 28)
  • Greens 12% (up from 10)
  • NZ First 9%
  • Maori Party 0.7% (down from 1.1)
  • Conservative Party 0.7% (up from 0.3)
  • ACT Party 0.3% (down from 0.7)
  • Other 0.6% (up from 0,2)

Base(n=) 1,245

Despite the commentary on One News I think it’s far too soon to read much into this result in relation to the Labour-Green Memorandum of Understanding.

Polling was done between 28th of May and 2nd of June, after the budget and with the MOU announcement part way through.

Regardless of that, Labour+Green at 41% is still a long way short of National’s 48%.

ColmarPollJune2016trend

For preferred Prime Minister:

  • John Key 39%
  • Winston Peters 12% (up from 10)
  • Andrew Little 7%

Before and after MoU:

cku-ghbuoaaoo3x

That might surprise and worry some people but I still think it’s too soon to judge much from this poll in relation to the MoU announcement. I’d say that Greens will be a tad anxious.

Full report (PDF)

Leave a comment

13 Comments

  1. Gezza

     /  7th June 2016

    Excellent. All over the place. Looking forward to Roy Morgan on 20-21 June.

    Reply
  2. Kevin

     /  7th June 2016

    “Regardless of that, Labour+Green at 41% is still a long way short of National’s 48%.”

    Yes, but, but, Labour+Green+Winston = 50% which is greater than Nationals’s 48%!!!

    Um, yeah.

    Reply
    • alloytoo

       /  7th June 2016

      Funny, summary of party support…

      National 50%…….

      Labour 28%
      Green 10%
      NZ1st 9%
      ——
      47%

      It’s right at the beginning of the PDF…..funny TV NZ didn’t mention that.

      Reply
  3. PDB

     /  7th June 2016

    So according to this after the MOU was announced the right went up to a point where National would govern (with the usual support partners) whilst combined Labour/Greens/Winston went down – sounds about right.

    But this is bollocks – I don’t believe for one minute that Winston’s vote magically went down 4% after the MOU was announced. And Colin Craig benefited by gaining a whole 1%? Rubbish.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  7th June 2016

      You’ve got me into trouble with Kitty.

      Reply
    • Gezza

       /  7th June 2016

      Base for that before & after MoU table is only 617 & 628 respectively. Al would know best I guess but I would think such a small sample size would be practically useless.

      Reply
      • 600 isn’t too bad.

        The problem is how many people have heard about the MoU straight away, or after a day, after two days, or not at all. Impossible to know.

        Some claim it can take quite a bit of time, like months, for significant events or policy shifts to flow through into polls.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  7th June 2016

          I see Paula Bennett gets 0.3% for preferred Prime Minister.
          Jacinda Ardern gets 1%.
          Helen Clark is in there at 0.4%

          That table’s useless.

          Reply
          • Iceberg

             /  7th June 2016

            Helen Clark is more likely to be the next PM than Little.

            Reply
            • Corky

               /  8th June 2016

              Don’t give her ideas, Icy. We have already had nine years of her.

  4. Alan Wilkinson

     /  7th June 2016

    Too many variables between the samples – one spans the weekend and the other doesn’t. Both presumably are weighted for statistical population sectors which may mean extrapolating small samples. I would be surprised if more than a small fraction of the population had even heard of the MoU when polled.

    Reply
  5. A non event…. National stay exactly where they were bubbling along in a band from 45-48% with the odd event too the lower or upper side….

    Labreens will need to wait a good 6 months before they can judge the Labour submission to the Greens as successful or not in their quest for ministerial salaries…

    Reply

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