Mixed UK referendum polls

The latest UK polls on staying in or leaving the European Union give mixed results, suggesting that the outcome is difficult to predict and may swing on currently undecided voters and on which of stay or leave supporters are more motivated to vote.

The Mirror reports: EU referendum 2016 poll tracker: Is Britain heading for Brexit and what does the UK think of Europe?

Latest poll results and trends as ICM, YouGov, Ipsos Mori, ORB, ComRes and other pollsters survey voters’ intentions to vote Leave or Remain in the referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union – but will they get it right?

Going by the latest polls some will ‘get it right’, some won’t. In reality the only poll that will get it right is the referendum. Polls are pre-vote attempts to gauge opinion and are subject to margins of error greater than some of the poll differences.

YouGov (21 June) “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”:

  • Remain 53%
  • Leave 46%
  • Don’t know 1%

A separate YouGov online poll of 1,652 people for The Times:

  • Leave 44%
  • Remain 42%

There must be a bigger ‘don’t know’ number there but it wasn’t quoted.

An ORB poll of 800 people who will definitely vote:

  • Remain 53%
  • Leave 46%

ORB poll of ‘all voters’:

  • Remain 49%
  • Leave 47%

Up until the murder of Jo Cox last week there seemed to have been a trend towards Leave but, related or not, it looks uncertain now and could go either way.

It’s up to the voters, as it should be.

Leave a comment

20 Comments

  1. Pete Kane

     /  22nd June 2016

    One of the better explanations of all, I think. Front bench was the term you were looking for Mr Espiner.
    http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/201805118/former-uk-labour-mp-bryan-gould-says-brexit-vote-too-close-to-call

    Reply
  2. Brown

     /  22nd June 2016

    I think they will stay because the elites want to. If you have to rig the votes so be it.

    Reply
  3. Pete Kane

     /  22nd June 2016

    I think the Cox tragedy has turned it BJ. I think it was hard anyway. Sad overall, esp for the Commonwealth. The Unions have completely got the wrong end of the stick in my view, and that will be the decider. Hope I’m wrong.

    Reply
  4. Nelly Smickers

     /  22nd June 2016

    Katie Hopkins makes it clear which way she’ll be voting – and why……….

    Reply
  5. The Jo Cox incident was a hoax. There was no blood on the ground at the site where she was reported to have have been repeatedly shot and stabbed, and the reported hero Bernard Kelly had been dead for years.

    https://metrouk2.files.wordpress.com/2016/06/ad209970651c2a9-licensed-to-lo.jpg?w=620&h=413&crop=1

    http://announce.jpress.co.uk/yorkshire-post-newspaper-ltd/obituary/23562957?s_source=jpno_leed

    Cui bono?

    http://forum.clonehost.net/topic/25/labour-mp-jo-cox-and-brexit

    Reply
  6. Nelly Smickers

     /  22nd June 2016

    Even LIZZIE wants out!! 😮

    The Daily Mail are reporting, that the Queen is privately asking her dinner guests, “to give her three good reasons,” why Britain should remain in the EU ….

    Reply
  7. I see 36 hours out, and the pendulum has swung towards Brexit with 53%, as the immediacy of the Jo Cox killing fades. Don’t knows 1%, Out 46%. I still will remain o n a Brexit at 52% or 51%, with the latter looking less likely.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  22nd June 2016

      Haven’t placed any bets on Brexit. Cancelled my bet on Trump though. Hasn’t modified his approach as he needs to. He’s frightening more of the horses more than the current stable-managers’ pet lynx does at the moment.

      Reply
      • Hey Mate, follow the money, its always the successful route. Its too soon to see who has the high ground. Time to send out the long range recce patrols eh?

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  22nd June 2016

          They probably won’t be letting any more Brits in to Trump rallies.

          Reply

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