More on the Morgan poll

Apparently continued silence by Martyn Bradbury on the latest Roy Morgan poll which came out a week after he posted BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: UMR SECRET POLL – National 41% Labour/Greens 45%

Since the Memorandum of Understanding, the First Past the Post mainstream media have had to start reporting the results as MMP ones. This perception change now allows Opposition voters to see they can win.

National is in trouble…

Once these private internal polls start becoming reflected in the TVNZ and TV3 Polls, National will start to implode with a power struggle.

The Roy Morgan poll has National on 53%, Labour on 25.5% and Greens on 11.5%. No word on what Bombers perception of this is.

One perception at The Daily Blog though, from Cleangreen. On the UMR ‘secret poll’:

Yes joy rings out finally National are on their way out hooray.

But in a comment yesterday on the Open Mic thread Cleengreen said:

Latest Roy Morgan and any other political poster companies we think we should trust! – well don’t – read below.

The Politicians are all under orders from the Bilderberg Group and are simply minion’s that carry out orders for the global elite and that is why you see a clear hard nosed similarity over every issue now, and the media is the same parrot for these cabals also as the pollsters are to!!!!

Does anyone understand how flimsy and vulnerable and easily rigged results of Pollster’s polling data can occur where the companies cannot verify their results or edit them to see if they are changed?

Poll result good, pollster good. Poll result bad, pollsters bad.

There was a lot of talk about the 10% bounce back for National (but interestingly no one seemed to bat an eyelid at Labour dropping 2.5 to 25.5%).

Chris Keall has posted Roy Morgan manager defends *that* poll at NBR:

The chattering class was quick to scoff when at the new Roy Morgan poll which showed a 10% jump for National (864 eligible voters were surveyed by phone).

There was eye-rolling from the left and the right, and I can see why: there were no political bombshells during the survey period (June 17 to early July) to warrant such a shift.

In a press release, executive chairman Gary Morgan pegged the Nats’ bounce on John Key’s announcement of a $1 billion housing infrastructure fund.

I’m not so sure.

Keall “asked Mr Morgan if he was confident of the poll result” and the RM poll manager responded:

We are very confident these results reflect a shift in voting intention in New Zealand towards the incumbent.

That is very likely to be correct. The questions are by how much, and why.

Andrew Little has had nearly two years to cut through and even before this poll, had really made little headway.

The New Zealand economy is booming at present with Kiwis returning to the country after years of outflows across the Tasman.

Also, specifically with this poll we conducted some additional research during this period which indicates that Housing Affordability/ House prices/ Shortage of Houses/ Homeless etc. has increased significantly as an issue in New Zealand this year.

The announcement of the $1 billion housing infrastructure fund is perfectly timed to take advantage of this sentiment. There are a large number of Kiwis out there who believe they will see the benefit of this $1 billion infrastructure fund personally.

It could be that housing has been a significant factor – perhaps a lack of confidence in Labour’s policies, or a desire by many voters to retain the capital value increases.

There was also a discussion at Dim-Post: Roy Morgan wild guessing game

No doubt Labour will start leaking that their secret polls show them getting a major bump after their conference. If you added all the bumps they’ve claimed from their private polls they’d be on about 500% by now.

Danyl has been quite cynical about Labour lately.

My guess about the swing – if there was a swing – is that the news recently has been dominated by horror, fear and uncertainty. Terror attacks, racial violence in the US, Brexit, and so voters are looking for political stability and supporting National. If they are.

Swordfish, a regular poll commenter at The Standard, joins the discussion. Another pseudonym I’m not familiar with, Pollster,  joined in.

It has nothing like the spikes the Roy Morgan does, and when it does it’ll be an occasional 2-3% shift, not a 5-10% (or in this case 16%) swing as the Roy Morgan has. What the UMR has shown since the election has been a pretty static political environment. The Roy Morgan suggests that from month hundreds of thousands of people are swinging wildly from Labour and the Greens to National and back again. It’s why no one in the business takes them seriously.

As the UMR polls aren’t published their claims can’t be verified, although Swordfish says:

Last 4 UMRs had Labour on 28-33%. Over the same period, the Public Polls put the Party in the range of 26-31%. Not an enormous divergence.

That’s a 5% range from UMR, the same as for ‘public polls’.

The last four RM polls for Labour were 25.5, 28, 29,5, 26 which happens to be a smaller range of 4%.

Pollster also said:

As for Labour staffers briefing internal polls, that’s not something I’m aware of, but I wouldn’t assume that’s why the UMR poll occasional finds its way into the public arena.

Frequently it’s Hooton who claims to have had a leak of Labour’s secret internal polling, when actually he just gets the UMR Omni from one of his clients as I do. I can also confirm he often makes up the figures, because he is a shameless liar.

Hooton bit back:

I think I have mentioned specific quantitative numbers from UMR polling data twice in the media. UMR polling is what “Labour’s secret internal polling” is – or, has been historically. It is also sold to corporates as you indicate.

Unless you think UMR does one quantitative study each month for its corporate clients and then another one for Labour. Perhaps it does. I don’t see that point in that though. Whenever I have mentioned polling of any kind the numbers have been correct.

Pull your head in with your lying accusations, whoever you are, anonymous guy on the internet.

Anonymous people on the Internet who appear to have a vested interest, and who promote polls only when their cherries are ripe, but never publicly publish any poll details, and make lying accusations about people with different political leanings, barely deserve to be taken with a grain of salt.

Leave a comment

8 Comments

  1. Alan Wilkinson

     /  24th July 2016

    Since it seems to me the central issue with the Morgan poll is its unreliability most of these commentators are supremely unqualified to offer any useful insight.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  24th July 2016

      The main reason I like Roy Morgan polls is because of their effect on the ants @ two other political forums.

      Reply
  2. PDB

     /  24th July 2016

    Ironically the people saying Roy Morgan is totally wrong are the same people who would be claiming Roy Morgan was completely accurate if it instead had National (wrongly) below 40%.

    Andrew Little has done nothing to gain voters from National, if anything his brain-fart in formally joining up with the Greens prior to the election has scared off even more traditional Labour supporters to NZL First or National. For most voters Andrew Little comes across as just the poor guy holding the fort until someone with real PM potential appears for the left.

    Housing may be the biggest issue at the moment but Labour have no answers with a ‘comprehensive’ housing policy that lacks any detail and appears to offer ‘affordable homes’ that are far from affordable to those people shut out of the housing market in the main centres. Add in the fact most sane people wouldn’t trust Grant Robertson in running a meat raffle, let alone the country’s finances, then why would you swap to Labour?

    Reply
  3. Brown

     /  24th July 2016

    ”The Politicians are all under orders from …”

    I have no idea if this is true but looking at the political shambles around the world one could be forgiven for thinking it does have legs. When a National PM endorses a Marxist for a UN job things have gone off the rails.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  25th July 2016

      Don’t think I would describe Frau Klark as a Marxist really. Be good if she got the UN job I reckon.

      Reply
  4. Looking at NZ Labour in the context of the reporting on the UK Labour Party situation, where both NZ and UK have Trade Union representatives as leaders and not from the “professional Labour” MPs, one has to ask what is the chance of a similar MP versus Unionist split here as well as there? The silence of both groups is becoming deafening. Whats going on?

    Reply
    • PDB

       /  25th July 2016

      The left in this country would become govt easily if Labour split into centre-left and far-left, with the centre-left party (as long as they had a decent leader and were the largest faction of the two) winning back enough soft centre voters from both National and NZL 1st to win the day.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  25th July 2016

        The silence of both groups is becoming deafening. Whats going on?

        o_O

        Reply

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