US President polls

A bit has been made of a 538 forecast suggesting a Trump win in the presidential election. But 538 run three separate forecasts:

Now-cast: Who would win an election today?

  • Clinton 45.8%
  • Trump 54.2%


That is straight after the Republican convention but before the Democrat convention.

Polls-only forecast: What polls alone tell us about Nov. 8

  • Clinton 53.2%
  • Trump 46.8%

Polls-plus forecast: What polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8


  • Clinton 59.6%
  • Trump 40.4%





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  1. Zedd

     /  27th July 2016

    I just watched Bernie (on Al Jazeera) move a motion.. to endorse Hillary ! 🙂

    “Hillary for Mrs Pres.” 😀

    • Gezza

       /  27th July 2016

      I couldn’t bring myself to watch Bernie’s full speech Zedd. It was just too incredibly sad to see him reduced to the tragic & pitiful state of begging people to vote for Hillary.

      • Gezza

         /  27th July 2016

        President Obama, asked for his reaction to the release of the Wasserman Schultz emails:

      • Zedd

         /  27th July 2016

        Bill Clinton’s speech was more painful.. BUT nowhere, near Drumpf’s vitriolic hate speeches ! 😦

        • Gezza

           /  27th July 2016

          Oh I never listen to Bill, Zedd. I stopped listening to him even before “I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky”. For the same reason though.

          It’s why I couldn’t vote for Hillary. The list of other women Bill Clinton did not have sexual relations with is pretty long. And she stayed married to him even after that last cracker of a declaration of innocence.

          Why on earth would you vote for a woman without the ovaries to boot him out of the House after he’s shat all over her like that God knows how many times.

    • Nelly Smickers

       /  27th July 2016

  2. Alan Wilkinson

     /  27th July 2016

    The trend tells the story. All the upside potential is Trump’s. It’s his to lose in my opinion.

    • Hi Alan,
      While Trump currently leads in the polls, he has the benefit of a convention bounce. But he has no “upside potential”.

      Factors to consider are:
      1. Trump has not come under sustained attack yet (the Republican candidates refused to take Trump seriously, so Trump was able to get through most of the nomination process unscathed – Cruz only began attacking Trump in April in response to very nasty personal smears from Trump, by which time it was too late).
      2. Clinton has a massive ground organisation, and Trump has virtually none.
      3. Clinton has the full support of the Democratic Party machine, while very few senior Republicans are coming out to support him.
      4. Trump has very little money, and the Clinton’s are famous for their ability to raise funds.
      5. Trump’s campaign is utterly chaotic, while Clinton is very well organised.
      6. At some point, the absence of actual real-world policies will surely start to affect Trump.

  3. Zedd

     /  27th July 2016

    I hear Jill Stein is at 3% & rising !! 🙂 😀


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