Clinton up, Trump down in New Hampshire

A new poll in New Hampshire suggests that Democrats are generally uniting behind Hillary Clinton and are still divided over Donald Trump, 47% to 32%.

WBUR Poll: After Conventions, Clinton Up 15 Points Over Trump In New Hampshire

Our new poll (topline, crosstabs) of 609 likely New Hampshire voters, conducted July 29 through Aug. 1, shows Clinton leading Trump 47 percent to 32 percent.

Among the most important reasons Clinton has moved ahead so dramatically in this important swing state following last week’s Democratic National Convention is that Democrats are uniting around her.

“After all the hand-wringing about whether Bernie Sanders supporters would end up supporting Hillary Clinton, she’s now getting 86 percent of the Democratic vote. Donald Trump, on the other hand, has slipped a bit among Republicans. He’s now getting a bit less than two-thirds of the Republican vote.”

Another big factor: The state’s many undeclared voters favor Clinton over Trump by almost 2-1.

Adding to the significance is that Trump won decisively in the primary in February while Clinton was beaten by Bernie Sanders.

Fit to be President?

The WBUR survey found that 48 percent of likely voters say Clinton is fit to be president, 46 percent say she’s not.

That doesn’t look good for Clinton, but…

…with regard to Trump, less than a third say he’s qualified to occupy the White House and more than 60 percent say he’s not.


Something that will be worrying many Republicans is the impact of Trump on their candidates for the Senate and for Congress.

The WBUR poll also found the presidential contest is having a big effect on New Hampshire’s Senate race between the incumbent Republican, Kelly Ayotte, and the Democrat, Gov. Maggie Hassan. According to the poll, Hassan now leads by 10 points in a race that could determine which party will control the Senate.

“There’s a very close relationship between the votes for Kelly Ayotte and Donald Trump,” pollster Koczela said. “Their support is sort of locked together. And with the direction that Donald Trump seems to be heading in, Kelly Ayotte’s task is to somehow decouple those two.”

That has proved difficult for Ayotte, who has put herself in the awkward position of not explicitly endorsing Trump, while saying she will support the Republican nominee in November.

Over the weekend, in a rebuke to Trump, Ayotte defended the Khan family — which prompted the Republican nominee to lash out at her.

“I don’t know Kelly Ayotte,” Trump told the Washington Post. “I know she’s given me no support — zero support — and yet I’m leading her in the polls. I’m doing very well in New Hampshire.”

But Trump is wrong about how he’s going in New Hampshire. And he has plenty of problems elsewhere as well. Media coverage is very unfavourable.

CNN: The GOP’s Donald Trump freak-out

Republicans are freaking out about Donald Trump, but the candidate himself is insisting his campaign has never been in better shape.

The GOP nominee tried to stem the growing panic — addressing the state of his campaign right at the top of his speech.

“The campaign is doing really well. It’s never been so well united. It’s the best in terms of being united since we began. We are doing incredibly well,” Trump said.

While Trump says his campaign is doing “incredibly well” the reality is quite different, with conjecture about whether he might drop out of the race.

Time: Why Donald Trump Isn’t Leaving the Race

If you only read one thing:

The GOP’s frustrations with Donald Trump are boiling into public view, as lawmakers, donors, and operatives struggle to account for the nominee’s insults and bombast.

With Clinton opening up a large lead in the polls after her successful convention—erasing and surpassing whatever bump Trump got from his own—the rumor mill is full of “maybe he’ll drop out or be replaced” talk. Here’s why you shouldn’t put any stock in it.

First off, Trump has gotten this far despite his controversial statements and attacks, and from the candidate’s perspective, this too shall pass. The election is in November, not August, and the three debates this fall will give the natural performer the chance to turn things around.

Second, there is no mechanism to remove Trump as nominee in GOP rules—he’d have to withdraw, and see #1 for why he won’t. And even if he did withdraw, the GOP would be even worse off, fighting for ballot access in almost every state for whichever sorry replacement they can muster just months before the election.

Finally, the GOP has long ago wagered the losing with Trump is better than standing up to him, which is why the #NeverTrump movement at the convention was doomed before it began. The Establishment, for the sake of party unity, strapped itself to the Trump rollercoaster and there’s no way off until the end of the ride.

It looks like being a bumpy ride, and not just for Trump.

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