On bogus polls

The biggest talking points from the latest One News Colmar Brunton poll is that Labour are languishing on 26%, down from 29% from their 28 May-2 June poll, and that Andrew Little has called the poll bogus.

One News: National rides high, Labour slips to lowest since election

Labour has been quick to attack the poll, leader Andrew Little saying the poll is “bogus” and he doesn’t accept it. He says he has seen other polls that tell a completely different story.

But he doesn’t say what that “completely different story” isUnless Little provides alternative poll details from the same polling period (3-7 September) then I call bullshit on his claim.

‘Sigh’ commented at The Standard:

Sure enough CV can’t wait more than a few minutes to put up a bullshit poll attacking Labour. Do you think he put up the recent Reid Research poll as quickly which showed Labour on 33?

As someone who has access to UMR polls this Colmar poll strikes me as completely out of whack.

That will be the better polling that Little is referring to, but it is not published so can’t be corroborated or compared.

UMR got closest to the last two election results. Colmar Brunton had National on something like 52%.

The last polls for Labour before the last election:

  • Colmar Brunton: 25.2%
  • UMR (Labour’s internal poll) 26.3%

Labour got 25.1%.

Details at Grumpollie: HOW DID THE POLLS DO? THE FINAL OUTCOME.

The last three Colmar Brunton polls this year:

  • Labour: 28, 29, 26
  • National: 50, 48, 48
  • Greens: 10, 12, 13
  • NZ First: 9, 9, 11

That looks quite consistent. Without having the details of UMR polls over the last six months it is impossible to compare.

The last published polls for Labour:

  • Colmar Brunton 3-7 September: 26%
  • Roy Morgan mid August: 25.5%
  • Reid Research 22 July – 3 August: 32.7%

Another of Labour’s Little helpers (Anne) at The Standard:

I haven’t seen the item yet but Little needs to constantly show disdain for these polls – especially those involving TV1 and TV3. There is an inbuilt bias favouring National and it goes back decades. He needs to openly treat them with the contempt they deserve.

He should also point out that the media generally is a disgrace by constantly giving the govt a free pass for their disastrous governance on many fronts while, at the same time, over-egging minor alleged indiscretions against Labour personnel.

Sock it to em Andrew. The masses perceive politeness as a weakness.

The masses perceive bullshit as bullshit.

Andrew Little is talking about this right now on Breakfast. He is citing Labour’s internal poll (no numbers or details given) and ‘another poll’.

Little then goes into Government bashing spiel, claiming that because National have done so poorly since the election he just doesn’t believe they would still be polling about the same now.

On National: “Is it conceivable that they would shed an ounce of popularity? I reject the poll”

“There is a range of polls going on you have to look at everything, I know we have had more support than previously”.

“I just think there is something wrong with that poll… it doesn’t stack up with any other polling I have seen”

He is ignoring the Roy Morgan poll?

He just doesn’t accept the Colmar Brunton poll result and he doesn’t it is credible.

He says you have to go with “the instinctual thing”, he talks to a lot of people and says he knows how it feels when the polls are 25-26% and it feels different to that now.

Ranting about unfavourable poll results is probably not an election winning strategy. It risks making one look out of touch and in denial.

 

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18 Comments

  1. Strong For Life

     /  13th September 2016

    Little is a bogus leader… that is Labour’s problem.

    Reply
  2. Alan Wilkinson

     /  13th September 2016

    As I’ve said, Labour doesn’t know what to do or how to do it. And the voters can feel it.

    Reply
  3. Blazer

     /  13th September 2016

    Little should just minimise it and say …well it tells us we have to work harder to get our message out there.

    Reply
    • Yes Blazer, but most of us voters are bemused because there is no “message” available from Labour other than we want to defeat National. On the basis of what policy? What are the principles of their approach to the economy? God help us if they retain the principles outlined in the 2015 Labour Constitution. It becomes very difficult to work harder to get a message out, when they have no message yet to sell?

      Reply
      • Blazer

         /  13th September 2016

        HOUSING is a BIG message…Col.Hammer it!In 2007 Key said he would hate to see NZ’ers become tenants in their own country,and he has spent the last 8 years doing his best to make sure they are.

        Reply
  4. Gezza

     /  13th September 2016

    I what the polls would look like if they all had a Don’t Know option.

    My view is that Andrew Little comes across to *the masses* as a muddled, indecisive, weak leader who would not be able to forge a coherent, affordable economic policy out of an incoherent coalition government of parties whose leaders are stronger than him.

    Nobody does research into why those polled wouldn’t vote for other parties though, so one can only speculate based on one’s own opinion & those of others one talks to.

    And *the masses* don’t read or post on blogs or guest spot regularly on Q&A or The Nation.

    Reply
    • The Parties do polling on negatives all the time Gezza. Its just not published. They know full well why they are popular/unpopular.

      It just seems Andy is being feed either rubbish polling or he is spinning like top desperate to stay in his job.

      Reply
    • Kitty Catkin

       /  13th September 2016

      Good point, Gezza. So often polls are hard to answer, because the answers given don’t fit and one has to tick the least inappropriate rather than the appropriate one. Thus can be really annoying; N/A or D/K would be appreciated. I suppose that it doesn’t change the results that much as people would be putting least inappropriate at both ends of the scale.

      Do you think that pitbulls should be-

      (A)Totally unrestricted

      (B) Eradicated

      I would have to say A, although I don’t think so at all; the many nice ones whom I have met are quite different to the ferocious ones whom I have also encountered. But I wouldn’t want the nice ones eradicated with the vicious ones.

      Reply
      • Kitty Catkin

         /  13th September 2016

        Gezza, isn’t it dreadful to find a voice mail for your late partner on the phone ? I also pity the person who left it and will feel awful when they hear that the person is dead..

        Reply
  5. Corky

     /  13th September 2016

    “Ranting about unfavourable poll results is probably not an election winning strategy. It risks making one look out of touch and in denial.”

    Pete, you’ve just made my cup of organic ” Fair Trade” cacao smoothie, mixed with a spoonful of organic Fijian Vanilla essence, taste a whole lot better.

    For us Righties, Andy is a fair trade for Labours political oblivion.

    Reply
    • Kitty Catkin

       /  13th September 2016

      A friend and I saw a documentary about the cocoa trade using young boys who were-or in some cases not-earning money to help the family and being (or not being) given some education….what did one do ? Take away any chance of their helping out the family ? Buy the cocoa beans and encourage child labour ? These were countries where people work as soon as they’re old enough. I don’t want to go along with child labour and also don’t want these boys to go hungry if there’s no work for them-nor, if I’m honest, am I willing to adopt one and keep and educate him.

      I would think that for many, too many, families, sending little Johnny off for x time to earn some money (supposedly) would seem like a great chance for him and give them one less mouth to feed.

      We ended up feeling really uneasy about this, whichever way it went.

      Reply
  6. Zedd

     /  13th September 2016

    The polls show three things to I&I:

    1) there is a ‘hard core’ group, who will vote for ‘Team Key’ regardless of the ALL misinformation/B-S that they spread

    2) there is a rising tide of discontent with both the ‘major parties’, they are looking at alternatives; NZ1st, Greens etc.

    3) there is a group of about 30% who did not vote in 2011 & 2014, that do not seem to appear in the stats. ?? ‘I did not vote or do not care’ :/

    Reply
    • Iceberg

       /  13th September 2016

      “3 there is a group of about 30% who did not vote in 2011 & 2014, that do not seem to appear in the stats. ?? ‘I did not vote or do not care’ :/”

      You’re into something there Zedd. The left should spend much more time, energy and money on this group.

      Reply
      • Kitty Catkin

         /  13th September 2016

        What if someone was ill and didn’t vote ? Last election but one, I only just made it because of a virus that would have made it impossible had it been as bad during the day as it went on to be later.

        I did not vote because

        (a) I am not interested

        (b) I was incapacitated because of illness

        (c) I am opposed to voting

        Reply
        • Kitty Catkin

           /  13th September 2016

          Someone I know doesn’t vote (and then complains about the government) and sends back postal votes not filled in as a ‘protest’. I would be surprised if the people doing the counting thought of it in this way, they’d just think (if they thought anything) that someone had done it absent-mindedly and chuck it in the scrap paper bin. Next !

          I have no sympathy for anyone who doesn’t vote and then whinges about the party who wins the election.

          Reply
          • Blazer

             /  13th September 2016

            another exclusive brethren member eh Kitty!We don’t vote,we do donate large to the Natz though.Hypocrites?

            Reply
      • Zedd

         /  13th September 2016

        @ice

        “hey good idea man !” 😀

        Reply
        • Kitty Catkin

           /  13th September 2016

          It is a good idea in theory, but might/would not work because some people won’t bother anyway. The ads make it clear that if you want The Birthday Party or The Dinner Party to win because…..then get off yer arse and vote (or words to that effect)

          I have heard quite a few people say that they won’t vote Green ever/again although they are committed to environmental issues themselves.

          Reply

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