Report from Europe

Missy is back with an update on issues in the UK and Europe.


EU / Brexit

The EU had a leaders meeting (minus Britain) in Bratislava last Friday. Not much of what came out of it has been reported in the UK, but the most interesting thing that did is the statement from the Eastern European nations who have stated that they will veto any Brexit deal that does not guarantee the rights of their citizens to remain in the UK. Other EU nations reiterated the stance that any access to the single market will have to include free movement.

On that, yesterday Theresa May was reported as saying that the EU will have to make a deal with Britain as the EU exports more to Britain than the other way around, and anything that does not protect that trading will be more detrimental to the EU. This has been the stance of the Leave campaign from day one on the trade with the EU, the fact that the EU loses more if no deal is reached, than what Britain will lose. German business organisations, and businesses, have been lobbying their Government since the vote to ensure there is a deal reached with the UK, one media report in June suggested that about 15-20% of German businesses could go bankrupt if they do not have tariff free access to the UK.

Last week Juncker admitted that the EU faced an existential crisis, interestingly though his solution to the crisis is greater integration. His state of the Union speech clearly spelled out plans for an integrated foreign policy and EU army – something that the leave campaign in the UK were rubbished for suggesting was in the pipeline. Farage of course now feels vindicated for pushing that line.

Germany

As I am sure has been reported in NZ, Merkel’s coalition suffered severe losses in the Berlin elections, and the far right AfD party has gained quite significantly. As one media report in the UK said, the irony in Merkel trying hard to overcome the ghosts of the Nazi’s is that she has created the conditions for the rise of a new era of far right – Nazi like – political force. This has to be worrying for Merkel as Germany heads to a General Election next year.

There are indications Merkel may be looking at backpedaling some on her open door refugee policy, though for many it is a case of too little too late.

France

Refugees/Illegal Migrants are still an issue in France, specifically those in the Calais Jungle. Last week a refugee – who claimed to be 14, but some say looked more like 24 – was killed when he tried to climb onto a lorry to stowaway into the UK. The actions of those in the Jungle are becoming more dangerous, and will cause more than their own loss of life. The building of a wall along the side of the motorway at Calais has begun, this is meant to try and stop the migrants from trying to stowaway in vehicles heading for the UK – the UK are picking up the majority (if not all) of the bill for this. There are some that believe that this wall may just push the problem a little more inland from Calais, time will tell.

UK Labour

There has been a lot happening within the Labour party over the last week, though most of it is claims and counter claims with regards to who is doing what – and much is related to the leadership race, so I won’t go into it, unless some of the hyperbole develops into something significant.

The voting for the Labour leader closed today, and the leader is due to be announced on Saturday – though it is expected that Corbyn will be confirmed as the leader, this is due to be announced on Saturday, before the conference. The Labour party conference starts Saturday, so I guess they found a security provider for it. Some MP’s will have bodyguards at the conference due to fears for their safety from the hard left activists.

And finally on Labour, Jeremy Corbyn (official account – not parody) tweeted that the average donation to the Labour party is 18GBP, looks like all those celebrity Labour supporters are big spenders – though to be honest I will probably spend more than that in the pub tomorrow night!

I think that is enough for tonight, I will try to be more regular with my updates, and luckily for me all the clocks are due to change soon, which makes the time difference less!

Leave a comment

13 Comments

  1. No one could be surprised that Juncker is still pushing for greater integration. That’s been the clear goal of the elites for quite some time. The idea of an EU army has also been floated along before this. So Remainers suggesting none of these things were going to happen just makes the Brexiters look like realists.

    Reply
    • Missy

       /  22nd September 2016

      It is interesting in the aftermath of the vote to look at the breakdown of stats, and to read some of the (non-hysterical) commentary in the media, it tends to go along with many I know who voted Leave.

      The split has been portrayed as generational, and to a degree it was, the majority of those that voted to remain were under 35, the majority of those that voted to leave were over 50, but where it is interesting is what they were voting for, it looks simple, but it wasn’t. When listening to many of the remain voters it appears that they (the younger one’s specifically) were voting for the status quo, there seemed to be no acknowledgement that by voting remain they would be signalling to the EU that they were in favour of the future plans of the EU, and they did not seem to think that greater integration or expansion of the EU would continue. On the other hand many who voted leave were voting for sovereignty, much of which was tied up with the fear of greater integration and expansion, for the older voters they had seen a common trading block morph into the EU, and were fearful of where it would head in the next 30-40 years. The older generation are also the one’s that grew up in the shadow of WWII, their parents having lived it, and the idea of a united Europe does not sit well with them.

      One of the things out of this vote, is that it demonstrates the short sightedness of some in the remain camp, much which I think is down to age and lack of life experience. I am not so sure it is about the Brexiters being realists, but rather many remainers did not have the vision to see further than a couple of years into the future, whereas the older generation, with a bit of life experience, on the whole were looking at 30-40years down the track and voting to save the younger generations from a more integrated and united Europe.

      Of course that does not apply to everyone, it is just my views based on some of what has been said in the media, but I think it will apply to many – whether consciously or sub-consciously.

      Reply
  2. “one media report in June suggested that about 15-20% of German businesses could go bankrupt if they do not have tariff free access to the UK.”

    And there it is. Nice. The Francophones and the socialists won’t be moved by that , Merkel however has an election looming in the face of rising fears about immigration. Add in fears about the economy and you can guarantee Merkel will be pushing hard for a good deal for the UK.

    the Brexit will end up being a very good thing for the UK over the 7 year plus horizon…

    Reply
    • Missy

       /  22nd September 2016

      Agree dave, also, today the Office of National Statistics released data showing the economy in Britain is strong, growth is up, unemployment is down, and house prices have remained steady, so three months on from the Brexit vote, and so far no calamitous economic shock for Britain.

      The EU will do a deal with Britain as it will be in their best interests to, the point is, Britain can – and will – survive outside the EU, the EU probably won’t be as successful if there is no deal with Britain when consideration of their other issues is taken into account.

      Reply
      • totally concur Missy – was my position to a lot of people back in the run to and aftermath of the vote than noses would not be cut off to spite faces and german business people would make sure a deal was done. germany would have serious problems if its export markets start closing to it…

        a lot of hysteria and scaremongering around the vote – but it is all starting to look a bit silly.

        By the way – thanks for providing the regular updates on the local flavour in the UK. you do a better job than the main outlets down here who are just horrible

        Reply
        • Missy

           /  24th September 2016

          Interestingly today Bloomberg reported on findings from a report by Civitas.

          In the report they said that about 5.8million jobs in the EU are linked to trade with Britain, whilst in Britain only 3.6million jobs are linked to trade with the EU.

          The Civitas report also said that 3.2% of all German jobs are linked to exports to the UK, whereas only 2.4% of British jobs are reliant on Germany, almost 1 in 10 jobs in Ireland, Malta, Cyprus and Belgium are connected to trade with Britain.

          http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-22/eu-has-more-to-lose-than-u-k-if-brexit-leads-to-trade-curbs

          This backs up one of the points many in the Leave campaign stated in the lead up to the referendum – the EU are more reliant on the UK for economic stability.

          There was a lot of hysteria and scaremongering – from both sides, and as you say much of it is starting to look silly – more so much of what the Remain side had to say. There was an article last week (I can’t remember which paper) which essentially confirmed that Osborne and Cameron made the decision to try and use the most extreme economic threats to scare people into voting Remain – it backfired.

          You are welcome for the updates, I realise it isn’t in depth analysis, but sometimes a nice summary of what is happening is nice to keep you in touch.

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  24th September 2016

            Love your reports Missy. They’re excellent. Saves me hours trying to figure out the main issues & points of interest with the EU commissariat’s daily doings.

            Reply
  3. patupaiarehe

     /  22nd September 2016

    Another very succinct summary of european affairs, by yournz’s foreign correspondent. Love your work Missy 🙂

    Reply
    • Missy

       /  22nd September 2016

      Thanks. 🙂

      I am felling the love. ❤

      Reply
      • Missy

         /  22nd September 2016

        *feeling

        I shouldn’t eat and type!

        Reply
        • patupaiarehe

           /  22nd September 2016

          I did notice your typo, but didn’t think I should mention it, as Kitty normally polices that sort of thing… Have you been paying attention to ‘domestic matters’ Missy. Winston hit a ‘home run’ in the house today…
          http://www.inthehouse.co.nz/video/45669

          Reply
          • Missy

             /  23rd September 2016

            feel free to mention typos, they are usually as a result of me doing it on my phone, or typing faster than I am thinking so gibberish comes out! 🙂

            I have been keeping up a little with what has been happening in NZ, I can’t see the video at work, but will have a look when I get home after a work leaving do.

            Reply
            • patupaiarehe

               /  23rd September 2016

              I wouldn’t be so petty to mention typos, when you have made the effort to write as much as you have.
              It is worth a watch when you get home Missy, love him or hate him, this is Winston’s best performance EVER. And he is RIGHT 😀

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