Labour jump, National slump in Roy Morgan

The September Roy Morgan poll has the main parties bouncing around.

  • National 41.5% (down from 46.0)
  • Labour 33.5% (up from 25.5)
  • Greens 12.0% (down from 14.5)
  • NZ First 8.5% (down from 9.5)
  • Maori Party 2.0% (up from 1.5)
  • ACT Party 1.0% (no change)
  • Conservative Party 0.5% (down from 1.0)
  • Mana 0% (down from 0.5)
  • United Future 0% (no change)
  • Other 1.0% (up from 0.5)

Who knows why National has dropped from 53% in July to 46% in August to 41.5% in September.

Or why Labour laboured on 25.5 for both Julu and August and then jumped 8% to 35.5 this month, when Andrew Little was hardly visible.

It would be wise not to get hopes up or down to much over this result.

roymorgan2016september

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/files/findings%20pdf/2016/september/6971-nz-national-voting-intention-september-2016.pdf

 

 

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21 Comments

  1. Alan Wilkinson

     /  27th September 2016

    Surely we can accept the Morgan poll for the ridiculous farce it is now?

    Reply
    • patupaiarehe

       /  27th September 2016

      Labour at 33% is all the evidence I need Alan

      Reply
    • Pete Kane

       /  27th September 2016

      Is there a relatively simple answer, Alan, as to why this poll almost always seems so erratic?

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  28th September 2016

        Either their sampling or weighting must be poor, Pete.

        Reply
        • That might explain inaccuracies, but unless they keep changing their sampling and weighting I don’t know how it explains the wild fluctuations.

          One possible explanation is that there is a very volatile chunk of the electorate blowing in the political wind, and RM’s monthly polling picks this up more than the less frequent polls.

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  28th September 2016

            If they have a high no response rate then their results will vary as the causes vary – eg Nats being away on holiday or work etc.

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  28th September 2016

              “Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 864 electors in September 2016. Of all electors surveyed 6% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.”

              864 people doesn’t seem all that big a number for a decent-sized political survey either, but I don’t know how that compares to other polls.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  28th September 2016

              The ones who didn’t answer are not the problem so much as those who were never asked. I would guess their target number was 1000 so obviously they had more difficulty meeting it than usual this time.

          • Gezza

             /  28th September 2016

            I had a quick squiz at TS last night and there were a few sounding cautionary notes about RM’s voltaility, plus others noting that it’s in line with recent UMR poll results & I think a couple prepared to wager NZF/Green/Labour coaltion government here we come.

            Reply
          • Gezza

             /  28th September 2016

            (On balance I still think switching off auto-correct was a good move.)

            Reply
    • Kevin

       /  28th September 2016

      There’s no solid evidence to suggest that their polls are rogue. It could be that there are a lot of swing voters. Also, as someone somewhere else suggested, Andrew was out of the country when the poll was done.

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  28th September 2016

        There is plenty of evidence that their variance is significantly greater than their claimed margin of error.

        Reply
  2. John Schmidt

     /  27th September 2016

    So there is going to be a landslide victory for the left. Really. No wonder AL is cock-o-hoop he is lining up to chair the UN security Council and out perform JK in doing so, and another pig has just flown by my window.

    Reply
  3. Gezza

     /  27th September 2016

    Whacko. The worms have turned. TS will be exploding with delight. The real fight might be all on at last❗️ 😃

    Reply
  4. Thank the great god Marx and his son and prophet Lenin that Roy Morgan have returned to the righteous path of truth. Viva La Revolution, the Red Flag stands!!!!!

    Seriously – this poll series is all over the shop. Still who knows maybe it truly is an inflection point. Next serious polls are due when? If they show a drop for National then mayhap Andy will be head commissar after all…

    Reply
    • Pete Kane

       /  27th September 2016

      Were you able to catch the ‘other election’ performance today Dave?

      Reply
      • The two buffons debating? No. While its of interest I need to make a living during the day and evenings the last thing I want to do is wade through a debate between the two candidates for POTUS in a very long time…

        Reply
  5. Pete Kane

     /  27th September 2016

    I’ll wait for a couple more. RNZ had a Vic guy on tonight in its monthly maths slot, looking at the ‘maths of polls’ (US was his focus today).
    “Dr. Dillon Mayhew from Victoria University on the mathematics that arises from political forecasting in the US election.”
    http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/nights/audio/201817771/nights'-pundit-mathematics

    Reply
  6. Corky

     /  27th September 2016

    Blue rinse and gold cuff-links, protect the Right from this hideous abhorrent aberration.

    Reply
  7. Zedd

     /  28th September 2016

    YAHOO.. good to see !

    But there is still alot of ‘water to flow under the bridge’, before Election 2017.
    BUT… 🙂 😀

    Reply

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