Clinton surge, voting under way

Hillary Clinton has surged in polls since last week’s debate, but it’s probably more a sign of Donald Trump tanking than Clinton suddenly being seen as wonderful.

And while election day is still a month away, November 8, absentee voting has already begun in one state at least.

Five Thirty Eight now rates Clinton a 75.5% chance of winning to Trump’s 24.5%.

538trend6oct2016

It’s not over for Trump, the trends have turned dramatically a few times, but it’s looking downhill for Trump since a poor debate and a worse week following that.

Also from FiveThirtyEight: North Carolina Is Becoming A Problem For Trump

Hillary Clinton continues to gain ground in our presidential forecast, as it becomes clearer that last week’s debate was a turning point in the race. In fact, the polls we added to our database on Tuesday may have been Donald Trump’s worst since the debate. They included surveys showing Clinton leading Trump by 9 percentage points and 10 points in Pennsylvania, by 6 points and 2 points in North Carolina, and by 3 points in Nevada.

One particular area of concern for Trump is North Carolina, where the polls we added on Tuesday were the fourth and fifth since the debate to show Clinton ahead there. They also had favorable trend lines for Clinton, withSurveyUSA showing her with a 2-point lead rather than a 4-point deficit in their early August poll, and Elon University showing her up by 6, instead of down by 1 point in their mid-September poll.

North Carolina is not a state where you want to be trailing in the polls in October, hoping for a late comeback. That’s because it typically has high rates of early and absentee voting. In 2012, for example, about 60 percent of ballots in North Carolina were cast before Election Day. Absentee voting is already underway there, while in-person early voting begins on Oct. 20.

So absentee voting has already begun in North Carolina, and over half of the votes there in 2012 were cast before election day.

And  Trump’s Doing Worse Than Romney Did Among White Voters

Donald Trump’s strategy in this campaign has been fairly clear from the beginning: Drive up Republican support among white voters in order to compensate for the GOP’s shrinking share among the growing nonwhite portion of the electorate. And Trump has succeeded in overperforming among a certain slice of white voters, those without a college degree. But overall, the strategy isn’t working. Trump has a smaller lead among white voters than Mitt Romney did in 2012, and Trump’s margin seems to be falling from where it was when the general election began.

Four years ago, Romney beat President Obama among white voters by 17 percentage points, according to pre-election polls. That was the largest winning margin among white voters for any losing presidential candidate since at least 1948. Of course, even if Trump did just as well as Romney did, it would help him less, given that the 2016 electorate will probably be more diverse that 2012’s. And to win — even if the electorate remained as white as it was four years ago — Trump would need a margin of 22 percentage points or more among white voters.

But Trump isn’t even doing as well as Romney. Trump is winning white voters by just 13 percentage points, according to an average of the last five live-interviewer national surveys. He doesn’t reach the magic 22 percentage point margin in a single one of these polls.

So WikiLeaks or other dramatic outside factors aside it looks like Clinton is in a strong and strengthening position, and Trump has to try and turn things around. Instead he seems to keep doubling down on being outrageous. Sometimes it looks as if he is trying to deliberately lose support.

Being an anti-candidate worked for Trump earlier in the marathon presidential contest, but it seems to be working against him now.

The vice-presidential debate between Mike Spence and Tim Kaine seems to have been ruled in favour of Trump’s running mate but whether that will make any difference is debatable.

Washington Examiner: Pence Deflects Kaine Attacks, Gives Republicans a Boost

Even allowing for spin, Republican and Democratic insiders gathered here at Longwood University drew vastly different takeaways from the vice presidential debate between Mike Pence and Tim Kaine.

Republicans said: Can you believe what a jerk Kaine was? He wouldn’t let Pence say three words before interrupting him. Surely the audience hated that.

Democrats said: Who cares whether anyone likes Tim Kaine? His job was to plant Donald Trump’s greatest hits in the public brain: Miss Universe. Tax returns. Mexican rapists. PTSD. And that’s what he did.

A few hundred miles away in Ohio, members of a focus group convened by the GOP strategist Frank Luntz did not like what they saw of Kaine. “Mike Pence is winning because Tim Kaine cannot debate like an adult without interruptions,” Luntz tweeted early in the debate. By the end, the 26-member group voted 22-to-4 that Pence won.

That looks decisive in favour of Pence, but this was a minor strategic skirmish in the presidential war of attrition.

Leave a comment

39 Comments

  1. Klik Bate

     /  6th October 2016

    Reply
    • lurcher1948

       /  6th October 2016

      Looks more like a Pakistani family arriving in NZ under John Keys open border policy.

      Reply
      • Conspiratoor

         /  6th October 2016

        Right back at yer lurch…

        The Donald’s Immigration Policy…
        Keep immigration levels, measured by population share, within historical norms.
        Select immigrants based on their likelihood of success in the U.S. and their ability to be financially self-sufficient

        And your good friend Hiller’s…
        Bring in 620,000 new refugees in a four-year term at a lifetime cost of over $400 billion. [U.S. Senate Immigration Subcommittee, June 27, 2016]

        lurch, I’m not sure if you are familiar with search engines but suggest you paste the following link into your address bar, then breathe through your nose and try to absorb the following content…

        https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/immigration/

        Reply
        • Corky

           /  6th October 2016

          Trumps policies are a beautiful thing. Ok, the rich may have to mow their own lawns…..but what the hell, they can hire ghetto dwellers.

          Reply
  2. According to sources, Randall Prince, a Columbus-area electrical worker, was doing a routine check of his companies wiring and electrical systems when he stumbled across approximately one dozen black, sealed ballot boxes filled with thousands of Franklin County votes for Hillary Clinton and other Democrat candidates.

    What he found could allegedly be evidence of a massive operation designed to deliver Clinton the crucial swing state.

    http://christiantimesnewspaper.com/breaking-tens-of-thousands-of-fraudulent-clinton-votes-found-in-ohio-warehouse/

    Reply
    • Snopes: A disingenuous article falsely claimed that “tens of thousands” of fraudulent ballots were discovered in a warehouse in Ohio.

      “There is no truth to the above-quoted story. ”

      Although CTN presents itself as a legitimate publication (by imitating the name of the genuine Christian Times newspaper), the web site has invented and promoted numerous conspiracy theories, including false stories reporting that Donald Trump was removed from primary ballots, that Clinton said “Harambe” was a victim of racism, that an African-American Trump supporter was killed in Chicago, and that the 4th of July had been cancelled due to fears of terrorism.

      http://www.snopes.com/clinton-votes-found-in-warehouse/

      Reply
  3. Corky

     /  6th October 2016

    So, lets see if Trumps advisor’s can make gold from the Vice Presidents debate. What about: in the modern world the role of President is a team effort . More than ever a President needs the strong steadying influence of a believable Vice President. Mike Pence is that man.

    Translation: vote for Trump and we promise Mike Pence will hold Trumps hand.

    Reply
    • ‘Trump’ and ‘team effort’ seem to clash a bit.

      Mostly vice-Presidents seem to be unimpressive and invisible.

      Reply
      • Corky

         /  6th October 2016

        Desperate times- desperate measures. Strange election.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  6th October 2016

          I recall watching a video of an interview with Trump & Pence after Pence was selected as VP cabdidate. There were a few postions of Trump’s that were the opposite of Pence’s usual long standing positions & when he was asked about this he basically just looked sheepish & indicated he’d just go along with the boss.

          Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  6th October 2016

        I don’t think you could say that about Cheney or even LBJ.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  6th October 2016

          Certainly true about Cheney I believe Alan. He notoriously & visibly did a lot of Bush Jnr’s thinking for him.

          Reply
  4. Kevin

     /  6th October 2016

    Not entirely on topic but hopefully some may find this of use anyway:

    With regards to Trump vs Clinton what you have is basically a “rhetorican” against a “dialectican.”

    Allow me to explain:

    As Aristotle said –

    “Before some audiences not even the possession of the exactest knowledge will make it easy for what we to say to produce conviction. For argument based on knowledge implies instruction, and there are people one cannot instruct.”

    So there are people that you cannot persuade them using knowledge. With these kinds of people you use their emotions to persuade. And because they can’t be convinced using logic you can’t talk to them using what Aristotle calls dialetic, or what you would call logical reasoning.

    Instead you use rhetoric, which in Aristotelian terms is incomplete or invalid arguments where all that matters is that you’re able to persuade your audience to your point of view.

    It needs to be remembered that dialectic and rhetoric are two different languages and if you see both Trump and Clinton as speaking dialectic you’re naturally going to see Clinton as being much more persuasive than Trump, and vice versa.

    Here’s an example.

    Trump, a “rhetorian”, while say something like:

    “We’re going to stop every Muslim at the border who tries to come in and send them back to whatever third world hell hole they came from.”

    Clinton, a “dialectican” will say something like:

    “We will make sure our immigration rules are sound so that we stop terrorism at the border and make sure that immigrants who will contribute to America are always allowed in despite their religion or ethnicity.”

    Both statements are about the same purpose – persuading their audience to vote for them on the basis of their immigration policy. The difference is that one uses rhetoric and the other uses dialectic.

    Reply
  5. Zedd

     /  6th October 2016

    ho ho ho.. looks like Hair Drumpf has finally been seen in his true light : lying, cheating, tax avoiding, greedy, racist sod !? :/

    Reply
  6. Bill

     /  6th October 2016

    It’s not really a matter of who wins this election, as the American people lose either way.

    Reply
    • Zedd

       /  6th October 2016

      @Bill

      I tend to agree.. BUT do we really want Drumpf’s (amateur Pollie) finger on the nuke launch button ?

      It would be great IF a majority, voted for either Greens or Libertarians (put the finger up to the 2 main parties), that seem wholly unpopular, according to MSM.. BUT thats highly unlikely; sticking with the DEVIL they know ! :/

      Reply
      • Conspiratoor

         /  6th October 2016

        No worries zeddo, your weed is safe from America’s nukes. There is no evidence at all of The Donald wanting to take us out. Europe on the other hand…

        Trump said he was open to nuking Europe because it’s a “big place”

        Reply
      • Bill

         /  6th October 2016

        Like I said it’s a lose, lose, situation and It looks like Putin is getting ready for the election outcome.

        Reply
        • Conspiratoor

           /  6th October 2016

          The Man Without a Face has the look of a man just itching for a scrap

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  6th October 2016

            Truth be told he’s probably also looking a loan. The expanding military budget means the return of austerity for the Russian people by the sound of it.

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  6th October 2016

              PS the big exercise for 11 million people in Moscow on 4 to 7 October didn’t happen or Rory Challins would’ve told us all on Aljaz. 😐

            • Conspiratoor

               /  6th October 2016

              I wasn’t aware they had left it G. And say what you like about Vlad, he has restored national pride in russia’s military machine. Who would you rather have alongside if you were dropped behind enemy lines – British SAS, Delta Force or the Spetnaz?

            • Gezza

               /  6th October 2016

              Didn’t catch the full item, c. Putin was chairing their party conference & they were all being expected to vote for the increased military expenditure he’s requested. They must still be doing some social spending because Rory said it was going to come at a cost to that.
              I’d have any of them. If sheer don’t care ruthlessness was required & they weren’t all xpected to come home, it’d be Russos.

            • Conspiratoor

               /  6th October 2016

              I’ll go with the Ivans if you don’t mind G…

              Spetsnaz are trained to improvise with explosives and create them from regular life objects.
              The spetsnaz are much better trained, they learn to embrace pain, torture, and even enjoy it. Trained to use most of the foreign weapons, have 5 years of training, sabotage, assassination, operate in any vehicle planes, cars, trains, helicopters, etc…. And that’s just Spetsnaz, Alpha and Vympel are handpicked and even trained further.
              And actually the Spetsnaz training is forbidden in US, they call it illegal, because of its hardcore, and pain. It scores about 78 deaths in a few years, during only training exercises

            • Gezza

               /  6th October 2016

              Righto. Update your will. When are you due back if all goes ok?

            • Conspiratoor

               /  6th October 2016

              G, I’m not going anywhere to my knowledge. Just struggling to stay above ground at the mo’. I’ve succumbed to a superbug that would have killed a lesser man and the good doctor has put me on horse tranquilizers. Cheers,c

            • Gezza

               /  6th October 2016

              Righto. I didn’t get where i am today without superbugs that killed lsser men, c. Stay warm, close the airlock. 🤒 😷

          • Bill

             /  6th October 2016

            Its got American’s asking, WHERE ARE OUR BUNKERS?

            Reply
            • Conspiratoor

               /  6th October 2016

              Plenty of old missile sites for sale Bill. You just gotta look for them

          • Bill

             /  6th October 2016

            Plenty of bunkers too I bet, but unlike the Russians not many invites are being sent out, to the fully prepared ones.

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  6th October 2016

              All they need to do is contact BUNKERS R US @ alex jones infowars.com

  7. Conspiratoor. You said “Who would you rather have alongside if you were dropped behind enemy lines – British SAS, Delta Force or the Spetnaz”.

    I say. MOSSAD

    Reply

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