US polls closing up quickly

The US presidential polls appear to be closing up quickly in the wake of the FBI announcement last Friday that emails related to their Clinton inquiries would be investigated.

The RealClear Politics poll average is now just +2.2 in Clinton’s favour, and FiveThirtyEight’s ‘Who will win the presidency’ polls-plus forecast is now Clinton 71.7% to Trump 28.3%.

What these don’t show is how quickly new polls have shifted as they lag through their averaging over time.

The latest ABC Washington Post Trump v Clinton poll is Clinton 48, Trump 47 but their four way poll with all candidates is Trump 46, Clinton 45, the first time Trump has led Clinton since May.

The FiveThirtyEight trend chart looks ominous for Clinton.

538trend1november2016

This is all complicated by early voting that has been under way for weeks in some states, and also the complex US electoral college system of electing the president.

The uproar over Clinton’s emails and renewed accusations of Trump’s alleged links to Russian interests were prominent in the news. This is far from a ‘normal’ election, and the swings could do anything in the final week.

 

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41 Comments

  1. Klik Bate

     /  2nd November 2016

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  2nd November 2016

      Democrats desperately trying to muddy Clinton’s waters. Contemptible really.

      Reply
    • US officials also say they have seen no direct link between Clinton and the latest emails but that didn’t stop that becoming a potentially game changing issue.

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  2nd November 2016

        No connection between Clinton and 650k emails on her assistant’s computer? Credibility vacuum there.

        Reply
        • Wasn’t it her assistant’s ex partner’s devices?

          The FBI says they don’t know if there are any related to Clinton.

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  2nd November 2016

            How long does it take to search on the word Clinton? Honestly, give us a break.

            If they have possession and a warrant answering that question is not time consuming.

            Reply
            • They apparently have software to analyse the emails, presumably to search for what they want and I understand to identify emails they haven’t already examined.

          • The estranged husband of Clinton’s “second daughter” has 650000 emails and the FBI says that they don’t know if there are any related to Clinton?
            Does the I in FBI stand for investigation, or are they stonewalling here?

            Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  2nd November 2016

            I think it was a shared computer? Perhaps had separate logons for the two of them. Maybe they forgot it was set up to download and store locally all her emails when they were busy deleting and cleaning up and hiding from the Clinton email FBI investigation.

            Reply
        • Klik Bate

           /  2nd November 2016

          ‘Fritz’ adds his penny’s worth…..

          Reply
    • Pete Kane

       /  2nd November 2016

      How Millennials Can Help Shape The Presidential Race
      “The Morning Joe panel discusses how young voters can have a serious impact on next week’s election.”
      Some of this seems a little counter intuitive – but?

      But not so much this.
      http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/dean-i-ve-never-thought-this-was-a-big-deal-798107203765

      Reply
    • Pete Kane

       /  2nd November 2016

      As much as I often dislike this guy, there is always something comforting to leopards like this.
      “Democratic strategist James Carville and MSNBC’s Thomas Roberts get in a heated debate over FBI director James Comey’s intentions with Hillary Clinton’s continued server investigation.”

      Reply
  2. @tweepsmap
    Whoever wins the US election is getting @POTUS’ 11m Twitter followers
    http://thenextweb.com/us/2016/11/01/whoever-wins-the-us-election-is-getting-potus-11-million-twitter-followers/

    @robhosking
    Rob Hosking Retweeted Tweepsmap
    This is going to be the biggest mass unfollow in social media history.

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  2nd November 2016

      Hilarious! Rob Hosking is a gem amongst dross in his profession.

      Reply
  3. Klik Bate

     /  2nd November 2016

    My niece in the US thinks tweets like this are doing the rounds to try and discredit Wiki Leaks!

    The linked article is BLOODY FUNNY though XD

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  2nd November 2016

      This email is a fake. It doesn’t exist on Wikileaks.

      Reply
      • Klik Bate

         /  2nd November 2016

        Yep – quite right Alan. Even my niece was able to determine that XD

        The ‘ihavethetruth’ link is hillaryous though, eh!!

        Reply
    • MaureenW

       /  2nd November 2016

      Is this story for real? This guy has appeared on AJ for years with some interesting stories (real or not), but he does seem to have some valid credentials. Have watched AJ for a few years, but they seem to have moved somewhat from conspiracy to more relevancy.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Pieczenik

      Reply
      • MaureenW

         /  2nd November 2016

        Edit above: That was meant to read “haven’t watched AJ for a few years…..”

        Reply
  4. Corky

     /  2nd November 2016

    Saw Trumpy address a rally. He is even sounding like the President. When he finished his bs to the faithful he strode across the stage and hugged the American flag. It was so poignant, a lump developed in my throat and I did the only thing possible… I stood up saluted the Commander In Chief. The thing is there’s a few days to go before the election. That’s more then enough time for Trumpy to put is foot in it. The best bet is tape his mouth and just have him wave and grin at the public.The damage to Hillary has already been done.

    Reply
  5. Pete Kane

     /  2nd November 2016

    Utah an New Mexico could still pose a problem for Trump, as the first part of this article shows. Bu the latter involving Donna Braztle (DNC Chair) and her CNN leak of questions to Clinton for the Primary debates must still irk Sanders people. Be a blow to loose the top DNC Afro-American this close. I guess they will ride it.

    Reply
  6. Pete Kane

     /  2nd November 2016

    CNN Jake Tapper CONDEMNS DNC Chair DONNA BRAZILE

    And then she does it again.

    Reply
  7. Joe Bloggs

     /  2nd November 2016

    A former senior Western intelligence operative, a specialist in Russian counterintelligence deemed credible in Washington, has provided the FBI with evidence that Trump ‘and his inner circle have accepted a regular flow of intelligence from the Kremlin, including on Clinton, since Russian intelligence had compromised Trump during his visits to Moscow – so that he could be blackmailed’.

    “The intelligence report, which the operative had provided to the FBI, reads: ‘Russian regime has been cultivating, supporting and assisting TRUMP for at least 5 years. Aim, endorsed by PUTIN, has been to encourage splits and divisions in western alliance’.

    “The Clinton data was a dossier based on bugged conversations by Clinton during various visits to Moscow and on intercepted phone calls, it says.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/85983474/trump-hotline-to-moscow-bank-revealed-as-fbi-probes-kremlins-fiveyear-plan

    The fire-in-a-dumpster that is the US elections has just been fanned again…

    Reply
  8. Alan Wilkinson

     /  2nd November 2016

    Reply
  9. Klik Bate

     /  2nd November 2016

    Ex FBI Chief brands the Clinton’s as a ‘CRIME FAMILY’ ……comparable to the Gambino mob ❗

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/727369/hillary-clinton-bill-crime-gambinos-james-kallstrom-fbi-email-scandal-us-presidential-elec

    Reply
  10. It is all disinformation or “spin “if you like. You can only believe what the FBI will eventually provide to the Justice Department as a report and recommendation. It will be interesting because the Federal Attorney General announced prior to the release of the first FBI report, that she would support the FBI’s recommendation, whatever it was. Has she burnt her bridges as far as the second FBI investigation report is concerned? She has opened the door to her private hell, if you ask me.

    My guess is that it will come to a head post election day and the litigation will start then regardless of who holds the majority in the Electoral College. Hilary will fight like a cornered rat, if she is accused, and like a cornered wolverine if she loses the election.

    Reply
  11. Alan Wilkinson

     /  2nd November 2016

    Podesta: “We are going to have to dump all those emails”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-01/podesta-mills-we-are-going-have-dump-all-those-emails

    If Democrats don’t win they will be meeting each other in court and jail for some time I think.

    Reply
  12. Alan, there are a series of exchanges about this subject which relates to the initial 300 emails selected and sent to the Senate Committee Inquiry on Benghazi. It shows that they had 55k of other messages as well.
    Have a look at this one : https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/39881

    If you go to http://www.wikileaks.org, click on the Podesta database and search “Cheryl Mills” (include speech marks, you will see that message in context of others on the subect.

    Reply
  13. Alan Wilkinson

     /  2nd November 2016

    Posted this in yesterday’s thread by mistake:

    Interesting questions about presidential pardons. Can Obama pardon Clinton for things she hasn’t been charged with yet? If not, will there be a flurry of charges brought against her in time to get her pardoned for them?

    Reply

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