Polls point to US uncertainty

The presidential polls closed up substantially over the last week, since FBI director James Comey’s announcement, but seem to have leveled off still slightly in Hillary Clinton’s favour. But the states decide who the president, not overall vote, so it’s complicated.

And there’s many unknowns, in particular the turnout. There’s signs that many Americans are tired of and aghast at the election, so it may come down to motivation of voters. The Democrats have a much better country wide organisation but Clinton’s campaign has struggled to last the distance so getting jaded supporters to vote could be challenging.

Trump’s campaign has been helped, even saved, by the FBI announcement, and seems to have a more energetic base of supporters, and appears to be winning the ‘undecided’ vote, but also has higher dissatisfaction ratings.

This is far from a normal sort of election, and no one is sure what the outcome will be.

The only thing that’s certain is a high degree of uncertainty. This applies to the election, and to after the election, with a number of legal problems and threats plaguing both candidates.

And then there’s concerns over what the result will mean for the United States.

Is Clinton pre-bought by ‘the establishment’ and would she ensure ‘business as usual’? Would a Clinton presidency become mired in investigations and attempts to impeach her? There are signs that Republicans would render their country ungovernable.

There were hopes that once Trump had his nomination confirmed he would start to show that he could be a responsible leader, but instead he dragged the campaign down even lower. Amongst other things he has virtually promised his followers that Clinton will be locked up.

Are the polls right? Not all of them because there are wide variations and fluctuations.

There seems to be an obsession to try and use polls to predict an outcome, but polls only try to measure opinion and report on that in the past.

In the simplest of elections polls cannot predict who will vote and how they will vote on the day. In an election as riddle with controversy as this one, with widely fluctuating polls, predictions are guesses.

The outcome of the election is uncertain to say the least, as is what will happen afterwards.

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2 Comments

  1. Corky

     /  6th November 2016

    Russians are having pre-election celebrations. They only want one guy running America- Trumpy. I hope Trumps team are working on a post -election strategy to contest the election results should they lose. Hopefully the election will be close so any action will not be seen as spite, but more a genuine protest any losing candidate is entitled to ( I believe?)
    They need the names of every person who’s votes were allegedly changed by the voting machines on record for starters. They also need a shirt design for Trumpy’s civilian army- gold in my opinion, to match his hair. The Gold Shirts will deal to those of a liberal bent who like to do nasty things….like running placards over and burning churches, then blaming it on red-necks.

    Reply
  2. Alan Wilkinson

     /  6th November 2016

    I suspect the only way Trump will win is if enough Democrats don’t bother to vote in key states. Otherwise it seems Clinton has held enough of an edge to win. Of course the Democrats will be doing everything to get their people to the polling stations.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/05/late_polling_shift_what_the_yougov_survey_shows.html

    Reply

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