Earthquake update – Thursday

Geonet 5 am Thursday update:

  • 19 earthquakes in last hour
  • 290 earthquakes in last 12 hrs (11 over M4)
  • 2070 earthquakes since the M7.8 (570 since 4 am Wednesday)

The rate and size of quakes is slowly reducing. The larger quakes overnight:

  • 4.3 – 7:45:51 pm 20 km south of Seddon
  • 4.3 – 7:46:33 pm 20 km north-east of Kaikoura
  • 3.8 – 9:27:10 pm 5 km north of Culverden
  • 4.8 – 10:15:14 pm 20 km east of Martinborough
  • 4.3 – 1:19:45 am 30 km north-east of Arthur’s Pass
  • 3.8 – 3:20:09 am 25 km north-east of Hanmer Springs
  • 4.0 – 3:41:33 am 30 km south of Seddon
  • 4.9 – 4:03:49 am 20 km south-west of Kaikoura
  • 4.0 – 5:02:32 am 10 km north of Culverden

Notable points: while reducing in size they are still spread over the three main areas, Culverden/Hamner, Kaikoura and Seddon, but with two other locations, east of Martinborough on the Wairarapa faultline (the one that went M8+ in 1855) and one north-east of Arthur’s Pass (Alpine Fault territory).

We can hope that these are reducing stresses rather than increasing them on other faultlines.

Yesterday Geonet upgraded the size of the initial quake (which may have been two consecutive quakes in different locations) from M7.5 to M7.8.

Kaikoura earthquake update: Magnitude revised

What has changed since our initial review

Based on our findings and in discussion with international researchers, early indications are that this is one of the most complex earthquakes ever recorded on land. This complexity means we have had to take extraordinary efforts to determine the magnitude, depth, and locations.

The very long time it took for the faults to rupture (over one minute) meant that the standard methods of calculating magnitude were insufficient to capture the full energy released.  

Due to the size of the quakes, we’ve gathered data from our entire network of seismic stations. All of these stations would not normally need to be included in magnitude estimates.

Further, our techs at GeoNet went out to several sites which we lost communication with and we have now been able to upload this information, so we have a more complete understanding of the ground deformation and strong-motion data.

Finally, our science teams have been working tirelessly, going up and down the affected areas and measuring the length of faults and how much they moved.  Their efforts have provided us with a clearer picture as to the size and length of the ruptures.

Based on all these ongoing efforts, we can say with some confidence that the earthquake was an M7.8.  This is consistent with estimates from several  other international agencies, specifically the USGS. Their early model provided us important information and we used all our additional data sets to confirm the magnitude. 

What this means

The new magnitude just tells us what we think most people who felt the earthquake already know: it was powerful, and went on for a long time over a large distance. It doesn’t change what happened but it does provide us with more knowledge about how significant the event was.

Our recent analysis confirms the complexity of this event. It does not change any of the observations of strong ground motion, fault breaks or GPS recorded movement of the earth’s surface – these are physical observations independent of the magnitude of the earthquake.

We are in the process of revising our probabilities and scenarios based on this new information and should have this released within the next 24 hours.

RNZ continues to have good coverage, including:

Rescue efforts in Kaikoura continue as helicopters and NZ and US defence force ships arrive in the quake-hit town with supplies.

Wellington is also dealing with the aftermath of Monday’s 7.8 magnitude quake, with several central city buildings deemed unsafe.

The aftermath of the 7.8 magnitude quake so far

Govt to consider funding for 24/7 quake monitoring

‘Absolutely gutted’: Tiny community of Mt Lyford devastated by quake

 

 

 

 

 

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33 Comments

  1. Joe Bloggs

     /  17th November 2016

    As for Brian Tamaki – a plague on his house and may he rot in Hell

    Tamaki has a right to free speech, of course. But there’s a fine line between free speech and being an ill-informed, ignorant, bigoted ass. And let’s not forget that while he’s preaching to his congregation he’s urging [them] to throw money at him too. . . . If Tamaki was truly a man of the Good Book, he’d be collecting for Kaikoura right now, not for himself, not for his own pocket. And he’d be in North Canterbury, helping those caught up in the disaster.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11749701

    How is it possible that this man could offer anything that improves our lives?

    never in my lifetime have I felt the necessity to celebrate diversity so acutely, to celebrate loudly, and love more than anything, our friends in minority groups who must be feeling pretty bloody trodden on these past few weeks

    There’s a petition doing the rounds with over fifteen thousand signatures added since yesterday to strip Destiny Church of its tax free status because of Tamaki’s hate speech. I’m in.

    Here’s the link:
    https://www.change.org/p/john-key-strip-destiny-church-from-tax-free-status?recruiter=71716208&utm_source=share_petition&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=autopublish&utm_term=mob-md-share_petition-reason_msg

    Reply
    • Joe Bloggs

       /  17th November 2016

      Updated at 1:30pm – the petition doing the rounds now has 48,000 signatures

      Reply
      • Kitty Catkin

         /  17th November 2016

        48,001 🙂

        The Brycleem Bishop has outdone himself this time.

        I find it strange-I don’t think-that he is so selective about which bits of the Bible he appears to believe in. In Deuteronomy XX, we are told that ‘A bastard shall not enter into the congregation of the Lord; even to the tenth generation shall he not enter into the congregation of the Lord.’ Oh, really ? Brylcreem has quoted Deuteronomy before now to justify his homophobia, but never has he quoted Deuteronomy XX 2. It can’t be because his oldest son (who is being groomed to take over Destiny one day) was born before the Tamakis were married, and so was one of his grandchildren.

        Reply
  2. PDB

     /  17th November 2016

    Hmmm – Tamaki is a wanker BUT having charity status is not a related issue and should be viewed on it’s own, not used as a punishment because we don’t like what someone says. I can think of other organizations that also should have their charity status removed so it should be viewed across the entire range of charities.

    Like it or not the right of free speech means that there will be times when we will hear shit said that we don’t agree with.

    Reply
    • Joe Bloggs

       /  17th November 2016

      And when we hear shit that is ignorant and bigoted, the principle of free speech enables us to respond accordingly, which is what nearly 60,000 people have done. IMO, there is nothing charitable in Tamaki’s words and no reason why he should enjoy the privilege conferred through charitable status for uttering them.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  17th November 2016

        I think you’ll find it’s qualifying as a church that results in his thriving little business also qualifying as a charity.

        Reply
        • Joe Bloggs

           /  17th November 2016

          Im not sure how you can separate Tamaki’s and his church. He IS the church and the church IS him.

          Reply
        • Joe Bloggs

           /  17th November 2016

          Feck, iPad * Tamaki

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  17th November 2016

            Well, once you get someone to believe the Bible and to want to listen to a preacher, the rest is just advertising & market segmentation by the preachers and their corporations.

            Reply
      • Corky

         /  17th November 2016

        Why do you think he’s talking shite?. He may be right? I’ll put it to you Tamaki has helped more people than anyone on this site.

        Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  17th November 2016

      Yes, Destiny’s charitable status should be revoked on the basis that making Tamaki rich is not an acceptable charitable purpose, not because he is an offensive idiot.

      Reply
      • Kitty Catkin

         /  17th November 2016

        I agree; no matter what one thinks of the man himself, it should be that. To be fair, the petition says that the church is a hate organisation, or something like that, not that they should lose it because one loathes BT’s homophobia.

        The church-or its members-has done good things, one must admit that. BUT the amount of money creamed off by the leaders could do far more. The most saintly man whom I have ever known (he is in the process of being canonised) had virtually no possessions and lived a modest, monastic life, yet his influence was and is worldwide and he will be remembered long after the Tamakis are forgotten. There is no way that Father S——-(memory eternal) would consent to have a church filled with pictures of himself as the Tamakis do.

        Reply
  3. I have been reflecting on the total costs of freight transport to the regions of New Zealand affected by natural disasters. Looking at the huge costs needed to create land and ril lines of communications it seems to me that our first priority should be given to the facilities at all of our Provincial sea ports of entry so they can deal with the receipt and breakdown of bulk cargo and transhipment of the smaller quantities of cargo by road and rail as exists. I know Ports of Auckland were looking at a sister port in the South Island looking for economies of scale in the NorthIsland to South Island trade routes. This makes sense and it should be regarded in the strategic sense as a logical backup resource for any types of disaster.

    Reply
  4. Who kicked the “a” out of “Rail”?

    Reply
  5. Klik Bate

     /  17th November 2016

    Following on from Ken Rings 2016 Earthquake predictions, ‘SW of NZ to Taranaki, 14th and 15th November, 5 – 6 Mag’…….his next prediction is for a ‘4 to 5 mag quake E coast of NZ, on the 19th and 26th’.

    Just saying…..

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  17th November 2016

      Ring was right in that there is a correlation between moon position and earthquakes although it is weak. John Campbell’s attack on him was just ignorant as well as offensive and stupid.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  17th November 2016

        Ken Ring is a charlatan. His weather forecasts and earthquake forecasts are a sham & both useless.This is a typical Ring earthquake prediction. Last year we had 1036 earthquakes of mag 4-5. Lots of them are on the “E Coast”. New Zealand’s East Coast is over 1,600 kilometres long. Does he say specifically WHERE it’s going to happen?

        You’ll note his spot on prediction for a 5-6 mag SW of NZ to Taranaki covered a huge area and totally missed the most important prediction of a 7.8 near Kaikoura in the N East of the SI.

        Reply
        • Klik Bate

           /  17th November 2016

          Not sure I fully agree with you there Gezza. We keep a copy of ‘Ken’s Almanac’ on the boat for the Auckland Tide & Moon predictions……he has NEVER got them wrong XD

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  17th November 2016

            He’s been getting away with mooning buyers of his almanac for years Klick. 🕶

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  17th November 2016

              (Just pretend that c isn’t there.)

            • Gezza

               /  17th November 2016

              PS: I’m an avid follower of Kenny Boy, though. I’m rather fond of the old artful dodger, truth be told. He’s a ‘scientist’. Did you know he says CO sinks to the bottom of valleys & can’t be mixed in the atmosphere because it’s heavier than air? (Which all those silly other scientists think is a mixture of gases, including CO2 – idiots!) 🙄

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  17th November 2016

              It is heavier than air and in concentrated form will sink to the bottom of valleys (or rooms) and can cause disaster by doing so:
              http://www.massey.ac.nz/~trauma/issues/2011-1/fomine.htm

              However given time and convection currents it will disperse through the atmosphere via mixing and difusion.

            • Gezza

               /  17th November 2016

              Ah, but you need to watch his video below to fully understand his theory.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  17th November 2016

              When it comes to climate, measurement trumps theory every time. Our planet is too complex for our state of knowlege to produce reliable theoretical predictions.

            • Gezza

               /  17th November 2016

              I meant his theory about CO2. His annual weather forecast almanacs he claims to be based on ‘astrometeorology’ that enables him to forecast daily weather for individual regions accurately years ahead, through his ‘astrological’ science, involving the sun, moon and planetary movements. In other words, poppycock. He uses 18 year old weather records apparently, plus some spin. plus some guesswork based on our seasons being generally reasonably similar for most years.

        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  17th November 2016

          Statistical probabilities are not useless, they just don’t predict single events with absolute confidence. Does Ring claim to?

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  17th November 2016

            No. Ring claims to forecast ‘potentials’, with both his earthquake and weather forecasts. He is more often wrong than right. His method is to spray Potentials around in his almanac, with extra ones in his newsletters, and sometimes some random extra ones again in his tweets. He makes so many forecasts he can claim to have got some right just by pure fluke, because his suggested locations cover such huge areas. However, when he does fluke a hit or a close one within several days of his forcast event, he then claims he ‘predicted’ it.
            He’s a sly old bugger. Gotta love him. 👍

            Reply
          • Gezza

             /  17th November 2016

            He’s an AGW sceptic as well though, Al, as well as an ‘alternative’ scientist.

            You’d probably enjoy a scientific discussion with him, because some of the things you probably still believe about air & CO2 are TOTALLY WRONG, according to Ken. I’ll let him explain it to you himself:

            Reply
            • PDB

               /  17th November 2016

              Ken and climate change scientists are very similar in the fact that 95+% of their predictions have so far proven to be false.

    • There’s not enough science known about the moon effect to predict earthquakes. There’s that many earthquakes if you predict one often enough you will seem to get it right some times.

      Ring caused major problems after One of the main Christchurch earthquakes, scaring the hell out of many people saying another full moon and another earthquake were imminent. People were looking at evacuating Christchurch, but of course even if there was going to be another earthquake it was impossible to tell whether it would be where someone moved from or where they moved to. The moon’s gravitational pull is similar everywhere.

      We have full moons about once a month and have major earthquakes far less frequently.

      And why would a close moon and a slight increase in gravitational pull be more risk that less gravity? It could just as easily be a decrease that lets a fault tip over the edge.

      And what is the difference between a slight variation in gravitational pull and the daily sloshing of a huge weight of water in the ocean? Low tide or high tide may have much more potential effect on a fault line ready to slip.

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  17th November 2016

        I’m not sure what you mean by saying the moon’s gravitational pull is the same everywhere. It varies by place and time as the tidal movements show. And the height of tides varies with the various moon and sun configurations as well as atmospheric storms and pressures. Also of course the techtonic plate boundaries are in specific places and states so that is where they are going to respond to fluctuations in gravitational forces in combination with their own states of pressures and resistances. I think it is unreasonable to claim there is no impact from the gravitational variations of the sun/moon configurations but of course that says nothing about the significance let alone predictability of them.

        Reply
  6. From a different there was a deep 4.8 quake in Fiordland at 3: 20 pm, and I’m fairly sure that creaked the building I was in. We used to feel down to that size from Christchurch.

    It’s uncommon to get local earthquakes here so whenever I notice one my first thought is who copped the worst of it. That has most often been Christchurch but occasionally they come across from Fiordland.

    Reply

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