TPP without the US?

When Donald Trump was elected US president it was presumed the Trans-Pacific was history, but it’s possible the other eleven countries will go ahead without the US.

This would presumably require another agreement because the current agreement was dependant on the US ratifying it.

Stuff: TPP nations eye a future without the US with Trump in the White House

Leaders of the Trans-Pacific Partnership nations are openly considering going it alone, without the United States, in a so-called ‘TPP minus one’ in the wake of Donald Trump’s election.

The 12 countries are meeting on the margins of the 21-strong Apec meeting in Lima, Peru.

Talking to reporters shortly after arriving in the Peruvian capital, Prime Minister John Key made it clear the grouping faced a critical crossroads with Trump’s election.

.”Maybe it is one of the most important Apecs I have been to.”

It could be interesting, but I would be surprised if the US is in a position to make decisions or even give an indication where they stand as Trump transitions into the White House.

There were three scenarios: Go ahead without the US with an 11-member TPP, Trump changes his position and accepts the agreed text, or the countries go back to the table and start talks again.

New Zealand’s goal was a free trade agreement that included the US and Japan through the TPP. 

But a deal without the US, but with Japan would still be worth it from New Zealand’s point of view.

A meeting of TPP leaders is planned for Sunday and New Zealand was reserving judgement on a ‘TPP minus one’, he said.

“It might be, in the end, the way we go forward without the United States – that’s  not an impossible scenario. But we have a few years to make that decision.”

If they want to proceed with a Pacific trade partnership it looks like it will have to be minus the US.

If this is what ends up happening it will be interesting to see how many still oppose it because it’s a trade agreement, and whether some decide to switch to supporting it without the US being involved.

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8 Comments

  1. patupaiarehe

     /  19th November 2016

    Oh the irony! Guess what was playing on my headset as I read this post… 😀

    Reply
  2. ‏@NewshubPolitics

    The Prime minister jokes that to get the US on board the TPP could be renamed the “Trump Pacific Partnership” #APEC2016

    Reply
  3. @CTrevettNZH

    PM John Key tells CEO Summit at APEC that NZ will still get two thirds of benefits of TPP without the US. Have done the costings.

    Reply
  4. Alan Wilkinson

     /  20th November 2016

    The obvious option is to cut the Americans out and open the future to new entrants including China. It might mean cutting some of the stuff the US bargained for out since the quid pro quo of US access won’t be delivered. That might not be bad.

    Reply
    • Kitty Catkin

       /  20th November 2016

      I read somewhere that Trump cannot just say that it’s off because he wants it to be*, but cannot remember where.

      I’d have thought that he’d be wanting to do a deal with China when the wall begins-that’s an awful lot of Do Not Enter tape and/or plastic bollards.

      Like Mrs Slocombe-‘And I am unanimous in that !’

      Reply
  5. @VernonSmall

    PM John Key’s hoped-for one on one meeting with Canada’s Justin Trudeau at APEC now not going ahead.

    Reply
  6. Ray

     /  20th November 2016

    Of course to TTPA originally didn’t include the US, drop them and run with it.

    Reply

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