Earthquake problems continue

Most of New Zealand has more or less put the earthquakes behind them,  but there are significant ongoing problems.

An aftershock in North Canterbury yesterday evening seriously damaged houses and forced evacuations, and also held up access to Kaikoura via the inland route.

There is no sewerage system in Kaikoura, they are running out of water and fuel, and frustration grows for those who want to get out by road but aren’t allowed.

This afternoon Goose Bay was evacuated after a warning a slip created dam might burst.

The NIWA building in Wellington was shut today pending a proper building inspection.

And tonight another building in Wellington was evacuated due to fears that it’s stairwells were damaged.

RNZ: Wgtn’s Asteron Centre evacuated over quake risk

Wellington’s 17-storey Asteron Centre has been evacuated over possible earthquake damage to its stairwells.

The high-rise, described by its designers as the capital’s largest single office building, is located opposite the Railway Station.

Updates from Geonet continue.

This simulation shows how the seismic waves of the magnitude 7.8 earthquake were propagated across New Zealand.

This also shows how the initial quake dominoed it’s way up the South Island from Culverden to Seddon: Watching the M7.8 Kaikoura Quake Dominos Fall in Real Time

And  How is the Kaikoura aftershock sequence behaving compared to the forecast?

By noon on Wednesday 23 November we had detected 4879 aftershocks from the M7.8 Kaikoura earthquake (with the area of detection being the forecast area represented by the box). 

Most of these aftershocks have been small (4828 earthquakes <M4.9) and would have only been felt close to the epicentre.

As of Monday 21st, there were also 47 aftershocks in the M5.0-5.9 range, and 3 aftershocks in the magnitude M6.0-6.9 range.

That sounds a lot but:

At the moment, the aftershock sequence is falling within the lower end of our forecasted range.

What does this mean?

In summary, the aftershocks are at the lower end of the forecasted range. It is a bit puzzling and we are scratching our heads at this one. What we can say is that just because we are in lower end of the forecast, it doesn’t mean that this will stay that way.

Pretty much anything could happen from here, from less and less to substantially more.

All we can do is be wary and be prepared.

Leave a comment

1 Comment

  1. GNS Science’s Kelvin Berryman talks about the uplift of the Papatea Fault at the coast north of Kaikoura

    That’s more than one and a half metres. Of solidish rock.

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s